Loan Problems,Fannie Mae, et alIs the worst over?August 24, 2011Mark R. Madsenhttp://ThirdNature.netTwitter: @markmadsen
Is the worst over? Some say it is. Did they look at the normal deviations in the time  series or just say “it’s lower than...
What is the composition of what people owe?
Some context:    February 27, 2007: The Federal Home Loan    Mortgage Corporation (Freddie Mac) announces    that it will ...
Improvements in badness ≠ things getting better
Did you catch the data viz no‐no in that last slide?Always start your charts at the origin or the relative amounts are exa...
% in foreclosure: Q3 2011, year to year change
% serious delinquencies: Q# 2011, year to year change
Year over year change demonstrates past to current performance, but it isn’t an indicator of future performance.If it was,...
Foreclosure %: What’s happening now? (Q311)
That was another data viz test Showing percentages of homes in foreclosure by  county with a color scale on a map like tha...
Foreclosures by quarter: a little good news
Bankruptcies might help see what’s coming
Combined might show a worrisome trend
Problem is, who’s declaring bankruptcy? Do they have home loans? Are they already reflected in the “serious delinquencies”...
The pattern of unemployment in 2008
The pattern of foreclosures in 2008
Is there a relationship?                           Maps do not make                            comparisons of data        ...
Not really, but there is a pattern           This analysis done by Emily Sciarillo at GeoCommons
What does it look like?          This analysis done by Emily Sciarillo at GeoCommons
There are a lot more questions than answersWe have lots of data quality problems in the government and financial sector da...
Resources for data used: Event timeline for the mortgage mess – http://timeline.stlouisfed.org/pdf/CrisisTimeline.pdf – Da...
About the Presenter                      Mark Madsen is president of Third                      Nature, a technology resea...
About Third NatureThird Nature is a research and consulting firm focused on new andemerging technology and practices in bu...
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Loans and Debts and Data: Data Exploration Corner slides

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Explroation of some of the consumer debt, loans, mortgages and foreclosures

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Loans and Debts and Data: Data Exploration Corner slides

  1. Loan Problems,Fannie Mae, et alIs the worst over?August 24, 2011Mark R. Madsenhttp://ThirdNature.netTwitter: @markmadsen
  2. Is the worst over? Some say it is. Did they look at the normal deviations in the time  series or just say “it’s lower than it was”? Oh, yeah.
  3. What is the composition of what people owe?
  4. Some context: February 27, 2007: The Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation (Freddie Mac) announces that it will no longer buy the most risky subprime mortgages and mortgage-related securities. April 2, 2007: New Century Financial Corporation, a leading subprime mortgage lender, files for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection. June 1, 2007: Standard and Poor’s and Moody’s Investor Services downgrade over 100 bonds backed by second-lien subprime mortgages. And so it goes…
  5. Improvements in badness ≠ things getting better
  6. Did you catch the data viz no‐no in that last slide?Always start your charts at the origin or the relative amounts are exaggerated.Naughty federal reserve. You should be spanked.
  7. % in foreclosure: Q3 2011, year to year change
  8. % serious delinquencies: Q# 2011, year to year change
  9. Year over year change demonstrates past to current performance, but it isn’t an indicator of future performance.If it was, all those big banks would still be around and we wouldn’t be talking about this.
  10. Foreclosure %: What’s happening now? (Q311)
  11. That was another data viz test Showing percentages of homes in foreclosure by  county with a color scale on a map like that makes  no sense. There’s no way to determine much  that’s meaningful other than the darker counties  being worse. And the color scale is broken: Florida peaks at  14.5% while Nevada peaks at 6.8%
  12. Foreclosures by quarter: a little good news
  13. Bankruptcies might help see what’s coming
  14. Combined might show a worrisome trend
  15. Problem is, who’s declaring bankruptcy? Do they have home loans? Are they already reflected in the “serious delinquencies” data? Does this have any relationship to the foreclosure data?That takes more digging into details than there is data available.But there are other, similar things we could look at, limited by data availability.
  16. The pattern of unemployment in 2008
  17. The pattern of foreclosures in 2008
  18. Is there a relationship? Maps do not make  comparisons of data  easy. Besides which, we  really want to know if  unemployment and  foreclosures are  correlated.
  19. Not really, but there is a pattern This analysis done by Emily Sciarillo at GeoCommons
  20. What does it look like? This analysis done by Emily Sciarillo at GeoCommons
  21. There are a lot more questions than answersWe have lots of data quality problems in the government and financial sector data limiting our ability to do meaningful analysis. E.g. ▪ Much of the government data is estimates ▪ There are minimal data standards ▪ Agencies and organizations duplicate duplicate work ▪ Minimal history or time series ▪ Lack of detail underlying the aggregates making basic  analysis beyond aggregate trends impossible.
  22. Resources for data used: Event timeline for the mortgage mess – http://timeline.stlouisfed.org/pdf/CrisisTimeline.pdf – Datasets and mapping tools – www.geocommons.com NY federal reserve bank (data on debt and credit) – http://www.newyorkfed.org/creditconditions/ Census data via their data retrieval tool (this link is housing data) – http://dataferrett.census.gov/datasets.html#ahs Home Mortgage Disclosure Act data – http://www.ffiec.gov/hmdaadwebreport/AggWelcome.aspx This presentation (and the rest of the talks) video/audio download:  https://bloorgroup.webex.com/bloorgroup/lsr.php?AT=pb&SP=EC&rID=4166022&rKey=1dd657ec48 4da85e These slides also available at: http://www.slideshare.net/mrm0/ All the other FedSpend shows: http://www.insideanalysis.com/fedspend/
  23. About the Presenter Mark Madsen is president of Third Nature, a technology research and consulting firm focused on business intelligence, analytics and performance management. Mark is an award-winning author, architect and former CTO whose work has been featured in numerous industry publications. During his career Mark received awards from the American Productivity & Quality Center, TDWI, Computerworld and the Smithsonian Institute. He is an international speaker, contributing editor at Intelligent Enterprise, and manages the open source channel at the Business Intelligence Network. For more information or to contact Mark, visit http://ThirdNature.net.
  24. About Third NatureThird Nature is a research and consulting firm focused on new andemerging technology and practices in business intelligence, dataintegration and information management. If your question is related to BI,open source, web 2.0 or data integration then you‘re at the right place.Our goal is to help companies take advantage of information-drivenmanagement practices and applications. We offer education, consultingand research services to support business and IT organizations as well astechnology vendors.We fill the gap between what the industry analyst firms cover and what ITneeds. We specialize in product and technology analysis, so we look atemerging technologies and markets, evaluating the products rather thanvendor market positions.

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