Nfais 2013

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Presentation to National Federation of Advanced Information Services annual conference (members meeting). Feb 25, 2013.

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  • (1) Good Afternoon, today I want to talk libraries which is a segment somewhat ignored here at this meeting in recent years. Important nevertheless since there is a lot going on in the library world. Any businesses connected to the publishing industry is experiencing change and increasing complexity: Libraries are no different.
  • (33) Thank you and I’ll take questions. My thanks to Constance Malpas at OCLC who provided the initial inspiration for this presentation in her presentation to the RLG seminar which I attended in Chicago and later in email discussions between the two of us as I was putting my presentation together. Her influence is especially represented in the last section of this presentation.
  • Nfais 2013

    1. 1. The End of theMiddlemanPredicting the future of education publishing Michael Cairns Managing Partner Information Media Partners
    2. 2. 2
    3. 3. Content “platforms” are the future• Extensible – Proprietary content – Applications – Source data – User data – Third party & free content – etc, etc, etc. 3
    4. 4. Let’s add some ‘functionality’Photograph: http://www.jack-nicholson.info/biography 4
    5. 5. Thinking helps & ideas happen• The medical ‘simulations’ market – Merging traditional content with practice – Creating new content for specific practice• Self-publishing for faculty – Custom textbooks – Applying technology to improve process• State-wide initiatives to disintermediate 5
    6. 6. Innovation is still on the fringe• Book publishers have absorbed the implications of digital publishing• Linked all the parts together• Haven’t addressed long term scenarios• Big change remains and will come rapidly 6
    7. 7. YOU! Don’t lull yourself into complacency as though nothing can change until your only option is to close up shop, sell the few remaining stocks of printed matter you retain, go on the dole and become a weight on society where you end up having to take out eBooks at the library!7 7
    8. 8. Where to look• Slowing growth rate of ebook sales• eReader devices losing out to tablets?• Students dislike eReaders for textbooks• The big trade book merger• The bigger textbook divestiture 8
    9. 9. Activity in 2012 indicates there are bigger changes upcoming not less.Photo: Universal Pictures 9 9
    10. 10. Corporate Dev 101• Cost & expense• Economies of scale• New market(s)• Expertise• Technology/secrets• Eliminate competition 10
    11. 11. Why Random Penguin?• All about scale• Reducing factor costs• Consolidating operations• Compete for bigger authors• Is it cynical? 11
    12. 12. Watch 2013 bringing gifts….• More combinations in trade• Cengage & McGraw Hill?• Pearson: Already in year six• Will business model begin to collapse?• Basic questions: who, what, how, when, where concerning education – Fundamental: Who is the ‘student’? 2013 12
    13. 13. ?What’stheplatformKenneth 13
    14. 14. A successful platform• Branded content vertical• Workflow solutions and technologies• Common taxonomy and ontology• Consistent revenue model 14
    15. 15. Maybe it wasn’t his fault….. Two years of college down thePhoto: Universal Pictures drain! 15
    16. 16. Education & economic value• Today, creates debt – Tuition – Non-productive workforce• Most old industries are tradition bound – Education no different – New economic value created in many sectors• Drivers: New models, wider access, better outcomes 16
    17. 17. Destroyers or value creators?• Air BnB• Zipcar• Expedia• Craigslist 17
    18. 18. Destroyers or value creators?• Air BnB• Zipcar• Expedia• Craigslist• Facebook• Amazon Sadly, there is• Walmart no ‘friend’ in Beverly Hills 18
    19. 19. Platforms network transactions• Normalize a set of behaviors• Facilitate communication• Transact information, goods & services• Network effect drives usage & utility• Provider costs decline 19
    20. 20. Have I got a MOOC for you!• Massive Open Online Courses – Direct to student model – Unlimited class size – Branded faculty abandoning tenure• Coursera, Edx, Udacity• Delivery unsettled – textbook still reigns – Custom – Self-publishing – Ebooks 20
    21. 21. What do you mean there’s a test?• Assessment – Strong impetus in K-12 – Becoming important in college & post grad• Adaptive learning – Tailored to individual capability – Self-regulated/directed – Empowers learner• Bigger in post college market? 21
    22. 22. Is it just about ‘access’?• First year class size is stagnant• Applications have exploded• 150,000 students signed up• Top ten ‘graduates’ were ‘non-students’• There’s a whole new world out there• Brand protection and extension• Model not perfect but not intractable 22
    23. 23. Nathan says ‘it’s all over’…• “In 50 years half of the 4,500 colleges and universities will be out of business….”• The End of the University as We Know It – American Interest – Jan/Feb 2013 – Google the title: http://www.the-american- interest.com/article.cfm?piece=1352 23
    24. 24. Education is failing• New hires aren’t qualified• Student debt• Unaccountable administrators• Public funding• Free content• Research & experience suggests education doesn’t have to be personal 24
    25. 25. Indiana University• Campus wide course materials platform• Negotiate with publishers• All content made available• Revenue model based on headcount• No returns, used books, 100% sell through – Pay’s with higher discount• Schools executing their negotiating power 25
    26. 26. Platform as gateway?• Will winners control access?• Platform providers promise an audience?• Are walled gardens a good solution?• Mélange of players: – Amazon, Blackboard, Ingram, EBSCO, Pearson, Desire2Learn – Could state system ‘own’ a platform?• Physical boundaries of schools erode 26
    27. 27. Campus content indexed• Coursload – Product catalog, library, archive, collaboration tool, publishing toolkit, learning support, access point via API• Collects content assets: – Licensed materials – library – Teaching materials – faculty & university archive – Research materials – faculty, press, etc. 27
    28. 28. The Innovators• Many new entrants in education• PE investment accelerating• Eventually ‘run out of market’ with consolidation – but years off• Opportunities: workflow, training, content management, productivity, etc.• MOOCs already creating workable models• Innovators are addressing and solving problems 28
    29. 29. Conclusion• Gap between college and business needs creates identifiable financial exposure• Public policy drive to improve outcomes• Network effects and technology make material improvements possible• Other industries prove the possible• Platform becomes ‘biosphere’ or ‘operating system’ for educators and students 29
    30. 30. The End of theMiddlemanPredicting the future for educational content Michael Cairns michael.cairns@infomediapartners.com Managing Partner Information Media Partners Blog: personanondata.blogspot.com Twitter: @personanondata

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