Michael Keith "Human capital"


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Michael Keith "Human capital"

  1. 1. Migration, urban development and settlement: global trends and possible lessons for Moscow Michael Keith, 5th December 2013 , Strelka Institute, Moscow Urban Forum
  2. 2. Migration, urban dvelopment and settlement: 1. Introduction 2. The consequences of migration externalities?What difference does this make? 3. How does it make us think about the city differently? 4. Conclusions: lessons for Moscow 5. Global conslusions: trade offs and principles Based on Michael Keith (2013) ‘The Great Migration:Urban Aspirations by in Glaeser, E. (ed) Rethinking Cities Washington DC: World Bank
  3. 3. 1. Introduction
  4. 4. “What will be remembered about the twenty-first century, more than anything else except perhaps the effects of a changing climate, is the great, and final, shift of human population out of rural, agricultural life and into cities. We will end this century as a wholly urban species.” Doug Saunders, 2010 By 2025 • 225 cities in China will have one million people living in them (Europe has 35 today) • 350 million people will be added to China’s urban population – more than the population of today’s United States By 2030 • 1 billion people will live in China’s cities • India: By 2030 – 68 cities with population more than 1 million, up from 42 today (Europe has 35) – 590 million people will live in India’s cities – $1.2 trillion capital investment necessary to meet projected demand
  5. 5. Raj Thackeray and Bihari migrants in Mumbai European Islamophobia
  6. 6. Welfare externalities, migration, city governance • Spatial mismatch of migration externalities • Temporal mismatch of migration externalities • The normative dimension of externalities “Are you willing to pay one million HK dollars every 18 minutes to take care of mainland children born in Hong Kong?” “Hong Kongers have had enough!”
  7. 7. Migration, metropolis, and the future of the city • Economic imperatives of migration • Economic costs of migration: migration externalities • 40% of Fortune 500 companies started by migrants or their children • Managing inclusive urban change: competitiveness, liveability, resiliency, and social inclusion • The problems of populist opposition • Differences of migration streams of skilled, unskilled, irregular, family, forced, students
  8. 8. 2. The consequences of migration externalities?
  9. 9. Ed Glaeser • “Our best plan for growth is to set our cities free” • “Our cities are productive because they magnify humankind’s greatest asset: our ability to learn from the people around us. That asset will only become more important in the years ahead, as innovation becomes ever more important” (Glaeser, 2011)
  10. 10. Externalities and the challenges of the city commons Nobel laureate identified 4 key questions in situations of migration related change, social heterogeneity and intergenerational obligation • - Is there general agreement on the rules related to who is included as a member with both benefits and responsibilities? • - Do the members have a shared understanding of what their mutual responsibilities are as well as the formulae used for distribution of benefits? • - Are these rules considered legitimate and fair? • - How are the rules transmitted from one generation to the next or to those who migrate into the group? (Ostrom 2009:5)
  11. 11. • Analytically: the boundaries between ‘law’ and ‘economics’ in the management of migration externalities. Implications for analytical and normative social science. • Practically: combining forms of technocratic skills in shaping the city that is yet to come: value capture, planning, architecture, security, rule, resilience
  12. 12. 3. How does it make us conceptualise urban change differently? Migrant urbanisms: combinations and exemplifications
  13. 13. Shenzhen speed and the demons of density? Upscaling Shenzhen • From 200-300,000 in villages in 1978 to city of 18 million or so today • By the year 2000, Shenzhen was ranked nationally in China: fourth in gross domestic product (GDP) among Chinese large and medium size cities, third in local fiscal income, first in total export and import value, first in per capita GDP, first in per capita productivity • From sanlai yibu (three imports and one compensation) to moving upmarket
  14. 14. The ‘floating population’ and urban China • The nature of the hukou, • The floating population liudong renkou 流动人口 • At least two circuits of migration, • Geographical ranges of migration • Rural and urban property rights
  15. 15. Migrant dwelling – the cheng zhong cun • Villages in City (cheng zhong cun) • Residential handshake apartments • Nascent democratic arrangements • The cuns as joint stock companies • The dynamism of the cun
  16. 16. Chengzhongcun ‘villages in the city‘ migrant ‘handshake apartments’ woshou fang 握 手房
  17. 17. Special economic zones and the Shenzhen cheng zhong cun • “Their main livelihood, as a villager puts it, has shifted from cultivating crops (gengtian) to to cultivating real estate (genguru)” Siu, 2007, 331
  18. 18. Da Fen Cun
  19. 19. Chengzhongcun specialisation, stock companies differential migrant integration and mediating welfare externalities • Guan Lan – FDI negotiations • Da Fen – oil panting city • Xia Sha – specialism moving up value chain, up market • Scale, rule and czc: future planning in Shenzhen • Urban dynamics and city, district (qu), cheng zhong cun relations • Differential incorporation • Metropolitan markets and hierarchies AND THE FLEXIBLE CITY civillagety
  20. 20. “Solving Poor People’s Housing Problem is Difficult” Economy Housing; “Solving Poor People’s Housing Problem is Difficult. I, Du Pu, Have Thought About It for Over One Thousand Years. Today, Finally It Will Come True. This is Great!” (Yuan Meng, 2006-08-15, China News Network)
  21. 21. Variations in geographical scale differences and metropolitan governance challenges: formalising the informal • Neighbourhood level and churn eg Kumkapi, Istanbul • Gecekondu - from informality to formalisation • Santiago – informal settlements and formal housebuilding
  22. 22. Strategic exceptionalism, inclusive migrant presence, zoning and common pool resources: Belo Horizonte, Brazil to tomorrow’s Texas? • Brazil’s special zones of social interest, mid 1980s • Participatory voice and its limits • Texan colonias on Mexico-US border
  23. 23. Scale jumping – Mumbai, Phnom Penh, Washington • National Slum Dwellers (2 million members) directly lobbying World Bank re Mumbai transport infrastructure development loan and resettlement • Phnom Penh – Solidarity for the Urban Poor Federation and 2011 evictions from Boeung Kak lake (World Bank $50-70 million loan withheld) • Breaking the analytial boundary between international and national migration
  24. 24. London scale: growing another city and migration governance
  25. 25. Migrant rights and community belonging: policy trade offs and accommodating London’s new city? • Between recognition and redistribution • Between deserving and undeserving poor • Between the queue and the calculus of need • The pernicious influence of ‘liberal elites’ • Invisibility and irregularity - irregular numbers in Londonbetween 184 and 425, 000 (Gordon et al; 2009, 51)
  26. 26. Governance challenges and temporalities of migration settlement • Arrival: and networks v programmes – skilled labour markets and property market effects • Settlement and response • Transnational and translocal links: Bangladesh in London • Transition from source to destination – Athens, Naples, Istanbul, Cairo • Challenging static / dynamic or synchronic / diachronic ways of thinking
  27. 27. 4. Lessons for Moscow and conclusions Urban form and the migrant status Propiska (“record” ) legacies place of residence / internal passports under Soviet law from 1932 onwards (antecedents in Tsarist Russia, when residency permits were used to tie serfs to the land; propiska system came into effect during the height of Stalin’s programmes of industralisation and collectivisation. Rgistration and recording the movement of people within the Soviet Union Skilled migrants and : (1) full Muscovite status; (2) conditional subjects; and (3) resident participants. ! !
  28. 28. 4. Lessons for Moscow and conclusions Urban form and the periphery • Moscow rapid growth (1939 4 million, 1979 8 million, present 12 million) Microrayons of the periphery (standardised housing regions) • Socialist suburbanisation • New urban periphery: challenges of post socialist urban peripheries
  29. 29. 5. Global conclusion: 1. Subject making and metropolitan trade offs • Subject making and migrant urbanisms • Trades offs of – Neighbourhood solidarity and permeability (as in London) – Land zoning and creativity (as in Belo Horizonte) – Migrant rights and labour market flexibilities – Rationing resources and welfare trade offs – The interests of the history of the urban present and the interests of the city yet to come
  30. 30. 5. Global conclusion 2: Municipal governance and principles of municipal migrant integration United Kingdom Commission on Integration and Cohesion , 2007 1. Shared futures; a sense of becoming over being; shared identifies looking forward that recognise diverse histories and identities looking backwards 2. A notion of citizenship that is fit for purpose for the 21st century and that accommodates different geographical scales of local, regional, national and transnational rights and responsibilities 3. An ethics of hospitality that recognises the value of the stranger and the newcomer within a framework of mutuality and civility 4. A sense of visible social justice that appeals not only to equality of opportunity and outcome but also to transparency of the decision making process