Morpheus OddBot EA - Expert Advisor ReviewCategory: Automated Systems Having conjured up images of Greek gods and gun-toting Science Fiction characters within my last Forex article, when I declared that I had put the strangely-named Morpheus OddBot EA into forward test, I guess its now time to meet the man himself! Hes certainly a funny looking chap, isnt he? Appearances can be deceptive, however, and since putting Mr OddBot into forward test, hes certainly been performing well and has been consistently towards the top of my Live Leaderboard, and is starting to appear like a robot which is both profitable and also very safe to run. In my latest Forex Expert Advisor review I aim to find out precisely just how good the Morpheus OddBot EA really is!As it happens, I plan to say some nice things about Morpheus OddBot further on within this review, soits probably best if I put my witchs outfit on at this stage and get the unpleasant matters out of the wayso that we can move forwards.My biggest complaint relates to the quality of the Morpheus website. I do understand that the OddBotdeveloper is planning to redesign the website in the near future but, at the time of writing this article, itlacks a lot of important information about the EA and it isnt particularly easy to navigate.Fortunately, there is a support forum on the Morpheus website that OddBot users can use for productinformation, downloads and support, and this has recently been linked to from the main part of thewebsite. I guess it shows that the Morpheus OddBot developer is moving in the right direction and Imsure that my relatively minor niggles will all be resolved in the near future.Hopefully, by the time you read this article, the website issues will have been resolved and my abovecomments will appear meaningless and irrelevant.
My second observation is that the OddBot PDF installation manual isprobably best described as being succinct and to the point.It consists of only 4 pages, of which just 2 pages relate to setting theEA up. Personally, Im not too bothered by this as I know exactlywhat Im doing when it comes to setting up a MetaTrader ExpertAdvisor, but I guess that installation could be a little daunting forsome of the Forex-newbie users out there who arent even entirelysure what MetaTrader MT4 is.Now that the nasty things have been said, I guess its probably timeto take my black pointy witchs hat off and move on to the positives.What do you reckon, boys?Well, I guess that the biggest positive of all is that the Morpheus OddBot does actually seem to work,and Im certainly hoping to fill in some of the empty boxes and cover some aspects of the EA thathavent been explained elsewhere within my review.About the Morpheus OddBot EAThe OddBot EA contains security measures which make it difficult to understand exactly what it is doing.The Morpheus website, unfortunately, doesnt give too much away either, other than to say it "usesinternal indicator logic..harmonic/candlestick patterns.. moving averages to place extremely accurateorders". Hmmm, Im not entirely sure what all that means but, from studying OddBots behaviour, Imguessing that the EA identifies a trend direction, then waits for a price retracement which has formed aparticular type of chart pattern before entering the market in the same direction as the trend.It is a scalping EA which only takes a few pips profit at a time and it works on both the EURUSD andGBPUSD currency pairs on the 15-minute timeframe. I did also notice somewhere on the developerswebsite that OddBot can run on the USDCAD symbol, although my tests focus solely on the two maincurrency symbols mentioned, and anybody using OddBot on other symbols should carry out their owntests on those symbols first.OddBot doesnt use Martingale, and it can trade either fixed lots or it can risk a percentage of theaccount on each trade. Ordinarily, it will trade through 24/5, although it does include both a time filteras well as a news filter, meaning that trading can be limited to certain times of the day and turned offcompletely for a while both before and after potentially market moving news is released.OddBot sets a stop-loss and take profit value when entering the market (which can be hidden if
required). From studying the trading pattern, it looks as though OddBot waits until a trade is in profit bya certain amount and then adjusts the stop-loss to lock in a small profit. In fact, users have the ability toadjust the amount that is locked in themselves.Having locked in a small profit, the obvious hope is that the price will continue its move and the tradewill reach the take profit level. In practice, however, the price generally either falls back to trigger theprofitable stop-loss or the system closes the trade itself (for a decent profit) ahead of the take profitlevel being reached.My tests will show that the approach experiences a high rate of winning trades (over 80%), and thatOddBot is profitable both in monetary terms and also in terms of pure pips. Morpheus OddBot works onECN/STP type brokers and it normally only opens one trade at a time, which means that there are noNFA compliance issues. It does, however, include an option to open multiple trades and I noticed that itwill then close the later trades before it closes the earlier ones, meaning that it breaks FIFO rules andtherefore isnt NFA-compliant when running under this option.US-based users will therefore need to ensure that they set the Morpheus OddBot up such that it onlyhas one open trade per currency symbol at any time.Setting the Morpheus OddBot EA upSetting OddBot up is reasonably straightforward, although there are still quite a lot of externalparameters which the user has the option to adjust himself.No fewer than 10 external parameters relate to the use of the time filter to determine times that the EAshould trade, and 4 parameters relate to the news filter. The default is for the EA to trade through 24/5and to ignore the impact of all news, and I was quite happy to use these defaults when first setting theEA up. Users should also bear in mind that the OddBot EA doesnt have the ability to automaticallydetect the brokers GMT server offset, and this will need to be calculated and entered manually forusers wishing to use either of these filters.OddBot also contains parameters to control trade lot sizes and risk level, as well as parameters to adjuststop-loss and take profit levels, and to choose whether the SL and TP are to be hidden from the brokeror not. Because the OddBot EA is a bit of a black box, its difficult to know precisely how it calculates itsvariable risk, and Im unable to tell if the calculations are performed on account balance, equity or freemargin.Anybody wishing to let OddBot calculate its own lot sizes (instead of using the fixed lot size option)controls the risk via a parameter called AutoMM . In the absence of a definitive explanation within themanual, I had to start several tests and look at the worst case losses to appreciate how this parameteractually worked. It appears that, in setting its value at 10, I was risking approximately 12% of the
account balance (or equity or free margin) on each trade, so I experimented with several levels anddiscovered that the actual risk per trade percentage-wise was factored at 1.2 times the AutoMM setting,and I eventually settled at an AutoMM value of 3 which I figured would risk 3.6% of the account.Parameters such as maximum spread, slippage and the SecureProfit parameter are what I wouldpersonally consider to be the most important, however, and users should give thought as to their inputvalues. With a scalping EA such as OddBot, allowing too much spread or slippage can mean thedifference between a profit or a loss from a trade. The SecureProfit parameter is used to control theamount of profit in pips that is locked in once a trade moves nicely into profit. This is also an importantparameter, but more about that later!The Strategy TestsGiven that spread is always going to be an important factor with any scalping EA, I decided to testOddBot first using a typical broker with a 2 pip EURUSD spread and a 3 pip GBPUSD spread. Thesespreads can be easily obtained by everybody nowadays, and I happen to think its a good starting pointfor testing an EA. As with previous EAs in test, I opted to use the Tadawul broker for my first testsbecause they not only satisfy the spread criteria, but theyre also an older style 4-digit broker and thistype of broker isnt generally suited too well to scalping robots. My thinking is such that, if a scalpingrobot can survive a Tadawulbacktest, then it stands a good chance of longer term survival and warrantsfurther investigation.Anyway, here are my 10-year Tadawul strategy test results.Tadawul - EURUSD - 2.0 pip spreadTadawul - GBPUSD - 3.0 pip spread
Now that I was satisfied that OddBot was at least capable of survival when using a typical retail broker, Idecided to run the same tests again using FX Primus as a broker. I wanted to make use of FX Primusstighter spreads, so I fixed them at 1 pip for EURUSD and 2 pips for GBPUSD to give some sort of anindication as to how OddBot would be likely to perform with an ECN/STP type broker.FX Primus - EURUSD - 1.0 pip spreadFX Primus - GBPUSD - 2.0 pip spreadClearly, the better performance was being obtained by using the tighter spread but, after carrying outthe latest round of tests I was a little concerned that better performance was being obtained on theEURUSD symbol than on the GBPUSD symbol, and I decided to investigate why this might be.
My first suspicion was that tests on both symbols were being carried out using the same SL and TPvalues, and it was possibly a case that "one size doesnt fit all". I figured that the TP value probablywasnt an issue simply because the TP was never being hit as trades were being closed ahead of its level.Trades would often run to the stop-loss, however, so I decided to look at some optimisation of the SLvalues on the GBPUSD symbol. To cut a long story short, my results showed that a little optimisation ofthe SL value would improve things, but the improvement would only be relatively minor. It certainlywouldnt get the GBPUSD performance up to the same standard as the EURUSD performance.At this stage, I decided to look at the SecureProfit parameter. As I mentioned above, once a trade movesa certain distance into profit, OddBot modifies the stop-loss to lock in a small profit. The default is tolock in just a single pip of profit, and I decided to investigate if locking in a greater profit would improveperformance.For anybody unfamiliar with MetaTrader optimisation, the following images are screenshots showingthe different results obtained for different values of the SecureProfit parameter. Its pretty clear thatincreasing this parameter by just a pip or two above its default value of 1 is actually detrimental toperformance, but increasing it by more than 3 or 4 pips results in increasingly improved performance interms of both increased profit and reduced drawdown in percentage terms.I stopped the optimisation with a SecureProfit value of 9, and its possible that, had I continued toincrease its value further, performance might have improved further still. I dont really consider it my jobto optimise EAs that Im testing. Instead, Id rather just steer people in what I feel to be the rightdirection, and then leave them to discover the best settings for themselves.EURUSD - Optimisation of SecureProfit parameter on FX Primus with 1.0 pip spreadGBPUSD - Optimisation of SecureProfit parameter on FX Primus with 2.0 pip spread
Having carried out this limited amount of optimisation, I then re-ran the full backtests with aSecureProfit setting of 9 pips to see how it affected the look and shape of the balance curve.FX Primus - EURUSD - 1.0 pip spread and SecureProfit parameter set at 9 pipsFX Primus - GBPUSD - 2.0 pip spread and SecureProfit parameter set at 9 pipsAlthough, not perfect, the GBPUSD curve is certainly smoother than it was before the optimisation.The only observation I had from my tests using the higher SecureProfit value is that there were a lot ofOrderModify errors within the results. This is down to the brokers stops level being employed which will
vary from one broker to the next. FX Primuss stops level in my tests was 4 pips. With a SecureProfit of 9,any attempt to modify the stop-loss while the open profit is anything less than 13 pips (ie. 4 pips plus 9pips) will result in these OrderModify errors.Its only a minor problem, however, and certainly shouldnt affect performance of the EA in any way.At that point I decided to call it a day in terms of carrying out further tests. I mentioned that there aretime and news filters but, to my way of thinking, the Morpheus OddBot EA looked capable of trading24/5 through the impact of news events, so I didnt really see too much point in removing blocks oftrades when the EA already appeared to be working in an acceptable manner.I also decided not to test the option which allows multiple trades to be open concurrently, mainlybecause of the non-FIFO compliance aspect of this particular feature.ConclusionIm keen to continue with my recent policy of performing a risk simulation and of carrying out MonteCarlo projections based upon the strategy test results. With the OddBot results, I ran a simulation basedupon the FX Primus test results for both the default and my optimised settings of the SecureProfitparameter.Risk simulation based upon original FX Primus results with SecureProfit parameter set at 1 pipRisk simulation based upon original FX Primus results with SecureProfit parameter set at 9 pips
The improvement resulting from the optimisation work is clearly visible for the GBPUSD symbol, andOddBot would appear to much safer to run as a result. The risk simulations show that it should bepossible to start running Morpheus OddBot with a relatively low account deposit, and users shouldexperience a relatively high level of satisfaction, with around half of all users not seeing their accountbalance drop lower than their initial deposit.I also decided to show the modified balance curve achieved from using fixed 0.1 lots using SecureProfitset at 9 pips, simply because you rarely get to see them quite so straight!With everything Ive said above having been digested, its important to remember that MorpheusOddBot is still a scalping EA, and the best performance from any scalper is always going to be achievedwhen using a broker with a very tight spread such as an ECN or STP type.As with certain other EAs, Morpheus OddBot also seems works well over a prolonged period of time (10
or 11 years in backtests), but there are still spells of 6 months or so within the equity curves where therehas been no overall return or even a loss. Prospective users will therefore need to exercise patienceshould these situations occur again in the future.Finally, it is going to be important to strictly control the maximum spread and (preferably) not to allowany slippage whatsoever on the trades. This consideration is going to be particularly important if theSecureProfit parameter is left at its default value of 1, as a potential profit will be lost before you knowit!Forward TestsFor these tests, Ive chosen to use a $5k demo Forex Central Clearing account. This is an ECN accountand the demo price feed is identical to the live feed, so it will hopefully portray the Morpheus OddBotEA in as accurate a light as is possible. The account uses raw spreads and adds a 0.5 pip commission toeach side of a trade, making 1.0 pip total commission per round trip.The EA has been set up with its AutoMM parameter set at 3, so that it risks 3.6% of the account balanceon each trade on both of its recommended currency symbols.Because FXCC are charging a 1.0 pip round turn commission on each trade, I am having to add 1 tothe setting for the SecureProfit parameter.I originally set this parameter to 2 but, having carried out the tests above, I have elected to increase itto 9.The majority of trades will therefore result in what is effectively an 8 pip profit once the 1 pipcommission is taken into account.Ive also set the slippage parameter to zero and am also limiting the maximum allowed spread in pips asfollows:EURUSD - 2.0GBPUSD - 3.0As with my other robots in test, you can monitor the Morpheus OddBots performance at MellyForex byclicking here.Article Submitted by Morpheus FX Solutions