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New Kingmakers: The Social Renaissance in Tech 10.20.2005SAP Palo Alto September 2012

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Software is Eating the World 2

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Gaming eats Pharma 3

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Quantified Self eats Healthcare 4

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Internet of Things“If you add up all the smartphones and thetablets and the digital televisions and the PCs...we see a large opportunity of perhaps 3 billionto 4 billion units per annum, but we see anembedded market that’s maybe 30 billion to40 billion units per annum” - ARM CEO Warren East 5

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Fragmentation of Everything 6

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Language Tiers 7

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API Choices 8

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Software in the 20th Century 9

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Software in the 21st Century 10

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The Developer Strikes Back 11

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Foraging vs Farming 12

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Forage For Code 13

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Then Forge Applications 14

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On Quality 15

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Skills Transfer and Practice 16

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Purchasing First“Operating systems, databases, web and application servers, dev toolsall required money. To get anything done, then, developers neededsomeone to write checks for the tools they needed to build. Thatmeant either raising the capital to buy the necessary pieces, or moreoften requesting that an employer or other third party purchase themon the developers behalf.” Stephen O’Grady – New Kingmakers 17

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The CIO is the Last To Know 18

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Accelerating Innovation 19

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Social, Local, Mobile Facebook: 1bn monthly active users 500m+ are mobile 30 Petabyte+ Hadoop cluster Foursquare: 3m Check-Ins Per Day 500k Merchants Twitter: 340 million tweets per day 24m – Lady Gaga’s followers 20

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Transactions in the Age of Engagement 21

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Celebrating Downtime 22

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The New Rockstars 23

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Old School Outsourcing 24

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The High Cost of “Low” BidsPresident Whitmore:“I dont understand, where does allthis come from? How do you getfunding for something like this?”Julius Levinson:“You dont actually think they spend$20k on a hammer, do you?” 25

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Outsourcing Contracts as CDOs“These [huge] contracts were meant to be about lowering risk. But when youpackage up a huge range of functions into one contract the risk becomesimpossible to manage” Tariq Rashid, Lead Architect at the UK Home Office 26

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From Farming To Foraging: Digital Abundance Foragers FarmersHeads up Heads DownDiversity - healthier more varied diet Monoculture- prone to diseaseBetter exercise More sedentaryLove nature, travel, and exploration Travel less, and move less often from where they grew up.Move more often to new communities Are more polite and care more for cleanliness and order.Work fewer hours, more mentally-challenging jobs. Work longer hours at more tedious and less healthy jobsTalk more openly about sex Are more faithful to their spouses and their communities.Are more sexually promiscuous Make better warriorsHave fewer kids Have lots of childrenCare less for land or material possessions. Expect and prepare more for disasters like war, famine.Spend more time on leisure, music, dance, story-telling Have a stronger sense of honor and shameLess comfortable with war, domination, bragging Fewer topics are open for discussionGroup decisions, with everyone having an equal voice. Better accept human authorities and hierarchyDeal with conflicts more personally and informally Believe in good and evil, in powerful gods.Prefer unhappy folk to be free to leave. Think people should learn their place and stay there.Leaders lead more by consensus. Leaders lead by rules Inspired by Overcoming Bias 27

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Foraging in Wartime 28

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“It was at this very plantation that a soldier passed me with a hamon his musket, a jug of sorghum-molasses under his arm, and a bigpiece of honey in his hand, from which he was eating, and,catching my eye, he remarked sotto voce and carelessly to acomrade, "Forage liberally on the country," quoting from mygeneral orders. Memoirs of General William T. Sherman 29

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“In a well-ordered and well-disciplined army, these things might bedeemed irregular, but I am convinced that the ingenuity of theseyounger officers accomplished many things far better than I couldhave ordered, and the marches were thus made, and the distanceswere accomplished, in the most admirable way. Memoirs of General William T. Sherman 30

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“By attempting to hold the roads, we will lose a thousand meneach month, and will gain no result. I can make this march, andmake Georgia howl!” Memoirs of General William T. Sherman 31

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“I have known the skirmish-line, without orders, to fight arespectable battle for the possession of some old fields that werefull of blackberries.” Memoirs of General William T. Sherman 32

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Acqhiring: Foraging for TalentGoogle: Aardvark, AppJet, Apture, Like.com, reMail, Slide.Facebook: Beluga, Digital Staircase, Drop.io, FriendFeed, Gowalla,Hot Potato, MailRank, Snaptu, Strobe.Twitter: Backtype, Dasient, Fluther, Hotspot.io, Julpan, Summize,Whisper SystemsLinkedIn: ChoiceVendor, IndexTank, MspokeZynga: Area/Code, Unoh 33

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Even Microsoft is Forced to Forage“We need to think more like the web…. one stack to run them all has goneaway. This stuff about single vendor stacks is behind us. The days of recruitingdevelopers to where you are is over. You have to go to where they are.” Tim O’Brien Microsoft Platform Strategy Group general manager 34

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New Kingmakers: New Patronage Economy 35

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Recommendations and Wrap UpEmbrace Open Source – patronage and contributionGet in Early, Encourage Hacking and PlayHire Algorithmically – skills foragingLet Developers Choose Their Own Hours/Location (But Keep them Close To The User)Build a Practitioner Purchasing competenceInvest in Developer Relations and Developer ExperienceGithub First (with enterprise governance in mind)Cloud First (with on prem in mind)Social First (with enterprise directory in mind)Mobile First (with desktop in mind)Practice Pace Layering/Timeless Software 36

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CreditsPhotos:SF in Cloud – SF ChronicleCraftsman – A. Davey on FlickrBerlin Wall, man with hammer – gavinandrewstewart on FlickrBerlin Wall – antaldaniel on FlickrBarbed Wire by tacitrequiem on FlickrVC chart data from the National Venture Capital Association and the Center for Venture Research, via @cbtacy from AppFog 37