New kingmakers at sap palo alto september 2012

James Governor
James GovernorAnalyst, company founder at RedMonk, Greenmonk
New Kingmakers: The Social Renaissance in Tech



 10.20.2005
SAP Palo Alto September 2012
Software is Eating the World




            2
Gaming eats Pharma




       3
Quantified Self eats Healthcare




              4
Internet of Things

“If you add up all the smartphones and the
tablets and the digital televisions and the PCs...
we see a large opportunity of perhaps 3 billion
to 4 billion units per annum, but we see an
embedded market that’s maybe 30 billion to
40 billion units per annum”
            - ARM CEO Warren East




                        5
Fragmentation of Everything




           6
Language Tiers




      7
API Choices




     8
Software in the 20th Century




            9
Software in the 21st Century




            10
The Developer Strikes Back




           11
Foraging vs Farming




        12
Forage For Code




    13
Then Forge Applications




          14
On Quality




   15
Skills Transfer and Practice




            16
Purchasing First

“Operating systems, databases, web and application servers, dev tools
all required money. To get anything done, then, developers needed
someone to write checks for the tools they needed to build. That
meant either raising the capital to buy the necessary pieces, or more
often requesting that an employer or other third party purchase them
on the developer's behalf.”
           Stephen O’Grady – New Kingmakers




                                   17
The CIO is the Last To Know




            18
Accelerating Innovation




           19
Social, Local, Mobile

               Facebook:
               1bn monthly active users
               500m+ are mobile
               30 Petabyte+ Hadoop cluster

               Foursquare:
               3m Check-Ins Per Day
               500k Merchants

               Twitter:
               340 million tweets per day
               24m – Lady Gaga’s followers




         20
Transactions in the Age of Engagement




                 21
Celebrating Downtime




         22
The New Rockstars




       23
Old School Outsourcing




        24
The High Cost of “Low” Bids



President Whitmore:
“I don't understand, where does all
this come from? How do you get
funding for something like this?”

Julius Levinson:
“You don't actually think they spend
$20k on a hammer, do you?”




                                       25
Outsourcing Contracts as CDOs



“These [huge] contracts were meant to be about lowering risk. But when you
package up a huge range of functions into one contract the risk becomes
impossible to manage”

         Tariq Rashid, Lead Architect at the UK Home Office




                                     26
From Farming To Foraging: Digital Abundance
                           Foragers                                                       Farmers

Heads up                                                       Heads Down
Diversity - healthier more varied diet                         Monoculture- prone to disease
Better exercise                                                More sedentary
Love nature, travel, and exploration                           Travel less, and move less often from where they grew up.
Move more often to new communities                             Are more polite and care more for cleanliness and order.
Work fewer hours, more mentally-challenging jobs.              Work longer hours at more tedious and less healthy jobs
Talk more openly about sex                                     Are more faithful to their spouses and their communities.
Are more sexually promiscuous                                  Make better warriors
Have fewer kids                                                Have lots of children
Care less for land or material possessions.                    Expect and prepare more for disasters like war, famine.
Spend more time on leisure, music, dance, story-telling        Have a stronger sense of honor and shame
Less comfortable with war, domination, bragging                Fewer topics are open for discussion
Group decisions, with everyone having an equal voice.          Better accept human authorities and hierarchy
Deal with conflicts more personally and informally             Believe in good and evil, in powerful gods.
Prefer unhappy folk to be free to leave.                       Think people should learn their place and stay there.
Leaders lead more by consensus.                                Leaders lead by rules




                                                               Inspired by Overcoming Bias




                                                          27
Foraging in Wartime




        28
“It was at this very plantation that a soldier passed me with a ham
on his musket, a jug of sorghum-molasses under his arm, and a big
piece of honey in his hand, from which he was eating, and,
catching my eye, he remarked sotto voce and carelessly to a
comrade, "Forage liberally on the country," quoting from my
general orders.
                Memoirs of General William T. Sherman




                                     29
“In a well-ordered and well-disciplined army, these things might be
deemed irregular, but I am convinced that the ingenuity of these
younger officers accomplished many things far better than I could
have ordered, and the marches were thus made, and the distances
were accomplished, in the most admirable way.
               Memoirs of General William T. Sherman




                                    30
“By attempting to hold the roads, we will lose a thousand men
each month, and will gain no result. I can make this march, and
make Georgia howl!”
                Memoirs of General William T. Sherman




                                     31
“I have known the skirmish-line, without orders, to fight a
respectable battle for the possession of some old fields that were
full of blackberries.”
                Memoirs of General William T. Sherman




                                     32
Acqhiring: Foraging for Talent

Google: Aardvark, AppJet, Apture, Like.com, reMail, Slide.

Facebook: Beluga, Digital Staircase, Drop.io, FriendFeed, Gowalla,
Hot Potato, MailRank, Snaptu, Strobe.

Twitter: Backtype, Dasient, Fluther, Hotspot.io, Julpan, Summize,
Whisper Systems

LinkedIn: ChoiceVendor, IndexTank, Mspoke

Zynga: Area/Code, Unoh




                                  33
Even Microsoft is Forced to Forage



“We need to think more like the web…. one stack to run them all has gone
away. This stuff about single vendor stacks is behind us. The days of recruiting
developers to where you are is over. You have to go to where they are.”
                    Tim O’Brien Microsoft Platform Strategy Group general manager




                                         34
New Kingmakers: New Patronage Economy




                35
Recommendations and Wrap Up

Embrace Open Source – patronage and contribution
Get in Early, Encourage Hacking and Play
Hire Algorithmically – skills foraging
Let Developers Choose Their Own Hours/Location (But Keep them Close To The User)
Build a Practitioner Purchasing competence
Invest in Developer Relations and Developer Experience
Github First (with enterprise governance in mind)
Cloud First (with on prem in mind)
Social First (with enterprise directory in mind)
Mobile First (with desktop in mind)
Practice Pace Layering/Timeless Software



                                           36
Credits

Photos:
SF in Cloud – SF Chronicle
Craftsman – A. Davey on Flickr
Berlin Wall, man with hammer – gavinandrewstewart on Flickr
Berlin Wall – antaldaniel on Flickr
Barbed Wire by tacitrequiem on Flickr



VC chart data from the National Venture Capital Association and the
   Center for Venture Research, via @cbtacy from AppFog




                               37
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New kingmakers at sap palo alto september 2012

  • 1. New Kingmakers: The Social Renaissance in Tech 10.20.2005 SAP Palo Alto September 2012
  • 2. Software is Eating the World 2
  • 4. Quantified Self eats Healthcare 4
  • 5. Internet of Things “If you add up all the smartphones and the tablets and the digital televisions and the PCs... we see a large opportunity of perhaps 3 billion to 4 billion units per annum, but we see an embedded market that’s maybe 30 billion to 40 billion units per annum” - ARM CEO Warren East 5
  • 9. Software in the 20th Century 9
  • 10. Software in the 21st Century 10
  • 16. Skills Transfer and Practice 16
  • 17. Purchasing First “Operating systems, databases, web and application servers, dev tools all required money. To get anything done, then, developers needed someone to write checks for the tools they needed to build. That meant either raising the capital to buy the necessary pieces, or more often requesting that an employer or other third party purchase them on the developer's behalf.” Stephen O’Grady – New Kingmakers 17
  • 18. The CIO is the Last To Know 18
  • 20. Social, Local, Mobile Facebook: 1bn monthly active users 500m+ are mobile 30 Petabyte+ Hadoop cluster Foursquare: 3m Check-Ins Per Day 500k Merchants Twitter: 340 million tweets per day 24m – Lady Gaga’s followers 20
  • 21. Transactions in the Age of Engagement 21
  • 25. The High Cost of “Low” Bids President Whitmore: “I don't understand, where does all this come from? How do you get funding for something like this?” Julius Levinson: “You don't actually think they spend $20k on a hammer, do you?” 25
  • 26. Outsourcing Contracts as CDOs “These [huge] contracts were meant to be about lowering risk. But when you package up a huge range of functions into one contract the risk becomes impossible to manage” Tariq Rashid, Lead Architect at the UK Home Office 26
  • 27. From Farming To Foraging: Digital Abundance Foragers Farmers Heads up Heads Down Diversity - healthier more varied diet Monoculture- prone to disease Better exercise More sedentary Love nature, travel, and exploration Travel less, and move less often from where they grew up. Move more often to new communities Are more polite and care more for cleanliness and order. Work fewer hours, more mentally-challenging jobs. Work longer hours at more tedious and less healthy jobs Talk more openly about sex Are more faithful to their spouses and their communities. Are more sexually promiscuous Make better warriors Have fewer kids Have lots of children Care less for land or material possessions. Expect and prepare more for disasters like war, famine. Spend more time on leisure, music, dance, story-telling Have a stronger sense of honor and shame Less comfortable with war, domination, bragging Fewer topics are open for discussion Group decisions, with everyone having an equal voice. Better accept human authorities and hierarchy Deal with conflicts more personally and informally Believe in good and evil, in powerful gods. Prefer unhappy folk to be free to leave. Think people should learn their place and stay there. Leaders lead more by consensus. Leaders lead by rules Inspired by Overcoming Bias 27
  • 29. “It was at this very plantation that a soldier passed me with a ham on his musket, a jug of sorghum-molasses under his arm, and a big piece of honey in his hand, from which he was eating, and, catching my eye, he remarked sotto voce and carelessly to a comrade, "Forage liberally on the country," quoting from my general orders. Memoirs of General William T. Sherman 29
  • 30. “In a well-ordered and well-disciplined army, these things might be deemed irregular, but I am convinced that the ingenuity of these younger officers accomplished many things far better than I could have ordered, and the marches were thus made, and the distances were accomplished, in the most admirable way. Memoirs of General William T. Sherman 30
  • 31. “By attempting to hold the roads, we will lose a thousand men each month, and will gain no result. I can make this march, and make Georgia howl!” Memoirs of General William T. Sherman 31
  • 32. “I have known the skirmish-line, without orders, to fight a respectable battle for the possession of some old fields that were full of blackberries.” Memoirs of General William T. Sherman 32
  • 33. Acqhiring: Foraging for Talent Google: Aardvark, AppJet, Apture, Like.com, reMail, Slide. Facebook: Beluga, Digital Staircase, Drop.io, FriendFeed, Gowalla, Hot Potato, MailRank, Snaptu, Strobe. Twitter: Backtype, Dasient, Fluther, Hotspot.io, Julpan, Summize, Whisper Systems LinkedIn: ChoiceVendor, IndexTank, Mspoke Zynga: Area/Code, Unoh 33
  • 34. Even Microsoft is Forced to Forage “We need to think more like the web…. one stack to run them all has gone away. This stuff about single vendor stacks is behind us. The days of recruiting developers to where you are is over. You have to go to where they are.” Tim O’Brien Microsoft Platform Strategy Group general manager 34
  • 35. New Kingmakers: New Patronage Economy 35
  • 36. Recommendations and Wrap Up Embrace Open Source – patronage and contribution Get in Early, Encourage Hacking and Play Hire Algorithmically – skills foraging Let Developers Choose Their Own Hours/Location (But Keep them Close To The User) Build a Practitioner Purchasing competence Invest in Developer Relations and Developer Experience Github First (with enterprise governance in mind) Cloud First (with on prem in mind) Social First (with enterprise directory in mind) Mobile First (with desktop in mind) Practice Pace Layering/Timeless Software 36
  • 37. Credits Photos: SF in Cloud – SF Chronicle Craftsman – A. Davey on Flickr Berlin Wall, man with hammer – gavinandrewstewart on Flickr Berlin Wall – antaldaniel on Flickr Barbed Wire by tacitrequiem on Flickr VC chart data from the National Venture Capital Association and the Center for Venture Research, via @cbtacy from AppFog 37

Editor's Notes

  1. Mike Stonebreaker, founder of seven different database companies, told the GlueCon audience in 2010 that it was impossible to be a new project in the database space without being open source.
  2. W hich of course encourages more forking and diversity, the new way innovation is done
  3. W hat does this mean for systems of record/systems of engagement ….