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#monetatewebinar
Peter Fader
Professor of Marketing
Wharton School at the
University of Pennsylvania

Bruce Ernst
Vice President
Product Management
Monetate

#monetatewebinar
 
	
  
	
  

How	
  Can	
  Customer	
  Centricity	
  Be	
  Profitable?	
  	
  
	
  
	
  
Professor	
  Peter	
  Fader	
  
The	
  Wharton	
  School,	
  University	
  of	
  Pennsylvania	
  
Co-­‐director,	
  Wharton	
  Customer	
  Analy=cs	
  Ini=a=ve	
  
	
  
faderp@wharton.upenn.edu	
  
www.petefader.com	
  
TwiCer:	
  @faderp	
  	
  
	
  
	
  

#monetatewebinar
“Customer	
  Centricity:	
  Focus	
  on	
  the	
  Right	
  Customers	
  for	
  
Strategic	
  Advantage”	
  
•  The	
  tradi=onal	
  product-­‐centric	
  business	
  model	
  is	
  showing	
  some	
  cracks	
  
–  Commodi=za=on,	
  well-­‐informed	
  customers,	
  globaliza=on,	
  etc.	
  

•  Customer	
  centricity	
  is	
  a	
  promising	
  alterna=ve	
  but	
  is	
  not	
  clearly	
  understood	
  
–  Many	
  firms	
  that	
  are	
  touted	
  to	
  be	
  customer	
  centric	
  really	
  aren’t…	
  

•  Celebrate	
  customer	
  heterogeneity:	
  dis=nguish	
  the	
  profitable	
  customers	
  
from	
  the	
  less	
  profitable	
  ones	
  
–  Emerging	
  metrics	
  such	
  as	
  customer	
  life=me	
  value	
  (CLV)	
  make	
  this	
  possible	
  	
  

•  So	
  where	
  do	
  higher	
  profits	
  come	
  from?	
  
–  That	
  is	
  our	
  focus	
  today…	
  
#monetatewebinar
Show	
  me	
  the	
  money!	
Customer	
  centricity	
  can	
  lead	
  to	
  improved	
  profitability	
  through	
  greater	
  
effec=veness/efficiency	
  in:	
  	
  
•  Customer	
  acquisi=on	
  
•  Customer	
  reten=on	
  
•  Customer	
  development	
  
You	
  can’t	
  expect	
  to	
  be	
  world-­‐class	
  on	
  all	
  three	
  dimensions,	
  but	
  doing	
  very	
  well	
  
at	
  even	
  one	
  of	
  these	
  could	
  be	
  highly	
  lucra=ve	
  for	
  the	
  company	
  as	
  a	
  whole.	
  
But	
  mastering	
  each	
  of	
  these	
  cri=cal	
  func=ons	
  is	
  a	
  lot	
  trickier	
  than	
  you	
  think…	
  
	
  
#monetatewebinar
Mo	
  money	
Balancing	
  acquisi=on,	
  reten=on,	
  and	
  development	
  requires	
  considerable	
  skill	
  
(and	
  analy=cal	
  insight)	
  
If	
  you	
  had	
  an	
  extra	
  dollar	
  to	
  spend,	
  which	
  of	
  these	
  ac=vi=es	
  would	
  you	
  
allocate	
  it	
  to?	
  
Let’s	
  examine	
  each	
  tac=c	
  separately	
  in	
  order	
  to	
  learn	
  the	
  answer…	
  

#monetatewebinar
Customer	
  acquisi=on	
•  What	
  metric	
  is	
  used	
  by	
  most	
  firms	
  to	
  gauge	
  and	
  guide	
  their	
  acquisi=on	
  
ac=vi=es?	
  
•  CPA	
  (cost	
  per	
  acquisi=on)	
  
•  Big	
  mistake!	
  
•  Would	
  you	
  use	
  it	
  for	
  other	
  kinds	
  of	
  acquisi=on	
  ac=vi=es	
  (e.g.,	
  employees,	
  
technology,	
  lawyers)?	
  
•  Firms	
  should	
  focus	
  instead	
  on:	
  
–  VPA	
  
–  “Value	
  per	
  acquisi=on”	
  à	
  which	
  is	
  CLV!	
  
	
  
	
  
#monetatewebinar
“Customers acquired from Google on average have a
higher lifetime value (mean CLV at $1,002) than
customers acquired from other channels (mean CLV at
$808). The difference is even larger for those whose firsttime purchase was off-line (mean CLV at $1,226 versus
$959, respectively)…”

Marke&ng	
  Science,	
  Sept./Oct.	
  2011,	
  p.	
  837-­‐850	
  
#monetatewebinar
Customer	
  acquisi=on:	
  summary	
•  You	
  must	
  ac=vely	
  avoid	
  having	
  a	
  “CPA	
  mentality”	
  
–  Focus	
  on	
  ceilings	
  instead	
  of	
  floors…	
  

•  Celebrate	
  heterogeneity	
  by	
  using	
  CLV	
  to	
  drive	
  acquisi=on	
  strategies	
  and	
  
tac=cs	
  
–  Be	
  more	
  pa=ent/forward-­‐looking	
  when	
  judging	
  acquisi=on	
  efforts	
  

•  In	
  general,	
  firms	
  tend	
  to	
  underspend	
  on	
  acquisi=on,	
  and	
  underachieve	
  as	
  
well	
  

#monetatewebinar
Customer	
  reten=on	
•  What	
  metric	
  is	
  used	
  by	
  most	
  firms	
  to	
  gauge	
  and	
  guide	
  their	
  reten=on	
  
ac=vi=es?	
  
•  Churn/aCri=on	
  rate	
  (or	
  reten=on	
  rate)	
  
•  This	
  is	
  a	
  good	
  metric,	
  but	
  you	
  need	
  to	
  examine	
  it	
  at	
  the	
  right	
  level…	
  
	
  

#monetatewebinar
Vodafone	
  aCri=on	
  rate	
  (quarterly	
  annualized	
  %)	
  

Source:	
  Vodafone	
  Germany	
  Analyst	
  &	
  Investor	
  Day	
  presenta=on	
  (2004-­‐09-­‐27)	
  

#monetatewebinar
%	
  customers	
  

Celebrate	
  heterogeneity!	
  

ACri=on	
  rate	
  
	
  
Source:	
  “Vodafone	
  Achievement	
  and	
  Challenges	
  in	
  Italy”	
  presenta=on	
  (2006-­‐09-­‐12)	
  
#monetatewebinar
Transla=on	
  to	
  CLV	
  
Attrition
rate

% customers

Low risk

0.06

70

Medium risk

0.35

20

High risk

0.65

10

%	
  customers	
  

Cluster

Average	
  aCri=on	
  rate:	
  0.177	
  (0.06	
  ×	
  0.70	
  +	
  0.35	
  ×	
  0.20	
  +	
  0.65	
  ×	
  0.10	
  =	
  0.177)	
  	
  
	
  Expected	
  life=me	
  using	
  this	
  average	
  aCri=on	
  rate:	
  5.6	
  years	
  

ACri=on	
  rate	
  
	
  

Ø  What’s	
  wrong	
  with	
  this	
  calcula=on?	
  
#monetatewebinar
The	
  key	
  insight…	
  
Because	
  we	
  can’t	
  get	
  accurate	
  calcula=ons	
  
with	
  averages,	
  we	
  must	
  work	
  with	
  the	
  actual	
  
rates	
  for	
  each	
  separate	
  class	
  of	
  customers.”	
  
“

	
  

Reichheld,	
  “The	
  Loyalty	
  Effect,”	
  p.	
  54	
  

#monetatewebinar
Cluster

Attrition
rate

% customers

Expected
lifetime

Low risk

0.06

70

16.7

Medium risk

0.35

20

2.9

High risk

0.65

10

1.5

%	
  customers	
  

Transla=on	
  to	
  CLV	
  

Average	
  aCri=on	
  rate:	
  0.177	
  (0.06	
  ×	
  0.70	
  +	
  0.35	
  ×	
  0.20	
  +	
  0.65	
  ×	
  0.10	
  =	
  0.177)	
  	
  

ACri=on	
  rate	
  

	
  Expected	
  life=me	
  using	
  this	
  average	
  aCri=on	
  rate:	
  5.6	
  years	
  

	
  

Correct	
  average	
  life=me:	
  12.4	
  years	
  (16.7	
  ×	
  0.70	
  +	
  2.9	
  ×	
  0.20	
  +	
  1.5	
  ×	
  0.10	
  =	
  12.4)	
  
#monetatewebinar
Customer	
  reten=on:	
  summary	
•  There	
  is	
  no	
  “average”	
  customer,	
  and	
  calcula=ons	
  based	
  on	
  such	
  a	
  no=on	
  
will	
  always	
  underes=mate	
  the	
  value	
  of	
  a	
  customer	
  base	
  
–  And	
  the	
  difference	
  can	
  be	
  huge!	
  

•  When	
  heterogeneity	
  is	
  accounted	
  for,	
  the	
  “aCri=on	
  elas=city”	
  is	
  much	
  
lower	
  than	
  in	
  the	
  homogeneous	
  case	
  
–  Investments	
  in	
  reducing	
  aCri=on	
  will	
  have	
  more	
  modest	
  returns	
  than	
  expected	
  

#monetatewebinar
Customer	
  development:	
  quick	
  summary	
•  It	
  is	
  useful	
  to	
  look	
  for	
  development	
  opportuni=es,	
  but	
  the	
  upside	
  to	
  these	
  
ac=vi=es	
  is	
  more	
  limited	
  than	
  most	
  managers	
  think	
  
•  Due	
  to	
  massive	
  customer	
  heterogeneity,	
  there	
  is	
  more	
  opportunity	
  to	
  
“move	
  the	
  needle”	
  via	
  acquisi=on	
  than	
  development	
  
•  S=ll,	
  it’s	
  important	
  to	
  pursue	
  development	
  tac=cs,	
  but	
  think	
  about	
  them	
  as	
  
“icing	
  on	
  the	
  cake”	
  
	
  
	
  
#monetatewebinar
Balancing	
  acquisi=on,	
  reten=on,	
  and	
  development	
If	
  you	
  had	
  an	
  extra	
  dollar	
  to	
  spend,	
  which	
  of	
  these	
  ac=vi=es	
  would	
  you	
  
allocate	
  it	
  to?	
  
Not	
  to	
  minimize	
  the	
  importance	
  of	
  reten=on	
  and	
  development,	
  but	
  at	
  the	
  
margin	
  I	
  favor	
  acquisi=on…	
  
	
  
Consider	
  the	
  conven=onal	
  wisdom:	
  “it	
  costs	
  5-­‐10	
  =mes	
  more	
  to	
  acquire	
  a	
  new	
  
customer	
  than	
  to	
  retain	
  one,	
  so	
  work	
  hard	
  to	
  keep	
  the	
  ones	
  you	
  have…”	
  
This	
  may	
  be	
  true,	
  but	
  it	
  totally	
  misses	
  the	
  point:	
  focus	
  on	
  value	
  instead	
  of	
  
costs	
  
	
  
#monetatewebinar
Overall	
  summary	
•  Customer	
  centricity	
  can	
  only	
  succeed	
  by	
  “celebra=ng	
  heterogeneity”	
  
•  The	
  greatest	
  upside	
  to	
  improve	
  customer	
  profitability	
  arises	
  through	
  
“smart	
  acquisi=on”	
  
•  Don’t	
  overspend	
  on	
  reten=on	
  –	
  the	
  flighty	
  customers	
  will	
  fly	
  away	
  no	
  
maCer	
  what	
  you	
  do	
  (or	
  they’ll	
  be	
  unprofitable)	
  
•  View	
  development	
  as	
  “icing	
  on	
  the	
  cake.”	
  	
  ACemp=ng	
  to	
  turn	
  persistent	
  
“detractors”	
  into	
  “promoters”	
  is	
  a	
  difficult	
  task,	
  and	
  the	
  resources	
  required	
  
to	
  do	
  so	
  can	
  be	
  beCer	
  invested	
  elsewhere	
  
•  Don’t	
  have	
  blind	
  faith	
  in	
  the	
  conven=onal	
  wisdom	
  about	
  these	
  tac=cs	
  
	
  
	
  

#monetatewebinar
 

	
  
Professor	
  Peter	
  Fader	
  
faderp@wharton.upenn.edu	
  
www.petefader.com	
  
TwiCer:	
  @faderp	
  
	
  
	
  
“Customer	
  Centricity:	
  Focus	
  on	
  the	
  	
  
Right	
  Customers	
  for	
  Strategic	
  Advantage”	
  
hCp://bit.ly/FaderCC	
  	
  	
  
	
  
	
  
#monetatewebinar
Customer	
  Centricity	
  in	
  the	
  Digital	
  World	
  
Bruce	
  Ernst	
  
Vice	
  President,	
  Product	
  Management	
  
Monetate	
  
#monetatewebinar
#monetatewebinar
40%	
  

Marketers	
  who	
  don’t	
  target	
  any	
  customer	
  or	
  
visitor	
  segments	
  to	
  create	
  personalized	
  website	
  
experiences.	
  
	
  
Econsultancy,	
  The	
  Reali&es	
  of	
  Online	
  
Personaliza&on,	
  2013	
  

28%	
  

Marketers	
  who	
  say	
  they	
  do	
  not	
  know	
  which	
  
high-­‐value	
  customers	
  to	
  focus	
  their	
  markeKng	
  on.	
  
	
  
BRITE/NYAMA	
  Marke&ng	
  in	
  Transi&on	
  Study,	
  2012	
  

#monetatewebinar
#monetatewebinar
#monetatewebinar
#monetatewebinar
#monetatewebinar
#monetatewebinar
#monetatewebinar
#monetatewebinar
#monetatewebinar
#monetatewebinar
SegmentaKon	
  
•	
  Is	
  Real	
  
•	
  Is	
  Possible	
  
•	
  Will	
  make	
  a	
  difference	
  to	
  

your	
  business	
  

#monetatewebinar
Questions & Answers

Peter Fader
Professor of Marketing
Wharton School at the
University of Pennsylvania

Bruce Ernst
Vice President
Product Management
Monetate

#monetatewebinar

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How Can Customer Centricity Be Profitable?

  • 2. Tips for Webinar Attendees •  Audio problems? Click the “Problem Dialing In” link or switch to the webinar phone bridge and make sure your phone is muted. •  Use the “Question” box within GoToWebinar to ask a question or use the webinar hashtag #monetatewebinar •  A recording of the webinar with the slide deck will be available at monetate.com/webinars within 1 or 2 business days. #monetatewebinar
  • 3. Peter Fader Professor of Marketing Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania Bruce Ernst Vice President Product Management Monetate #monetatewebinar
  • 4.       How  Can  Customer  Centricity  Be  Profitable?         Professor  Peter  Fader   The  Wharton  School,  University  of  Pennsylvania   Co-­‐director,  Wharton  Customer  Analy=cs  Ini=a=ve     faderp@wharton.upenn.edu   www.petefader.com   TwiCer:  @faderp         #monetatewebinar
  • 5. “Customer  Centricity:  Focus  on  the  Right  Customers  for   Strategic  Advantage”   •  The  tradi=onal  product-­‐centric  business  model  is  showing  some  cracks   –  Commodi=za=on,  well-­‐informed  customers,  globaliza=on,  etc.   •  Customer  centricity  is  a  promising  alterna=ve  but  is  not  clearly  understood   –  Many  firms  that  are  touted  to  be  customer  centric  really  aren’t…   •  Celebrate  customer  heterogeneity:  dis=nguish  the  profitable  customers   from  the  less  profitable  ones   –  Emerging  metrics  such  as  customer  life=me  value  (CLV)  make  this  possible     •  So  where  do  higher  profits  come  from?   –  That  is  our  focus  today…   #monetatewebinar
  • 6. Show  me  the  money! Customer  centricity  can  lead  to  improved  profitability  through  greater   effec=veness/efficiency  in:     •  Customer  acquisi=on   •  Customer  reten=on   •  Customer  development   You  can’t  expect  to  be  world-­‐class  on  all  three  dimensions,  but  doing  very  well   at  even  one  of  these  could  be  highly  lucra=ve  for  the  company  as  a  whole.   But  mastering  each  of  these  cri=cal  func=ons  is  a  lot  trickier  than  you  think…     #monetatewebinar
  • 7. Mo  money Balancing  acquisi=on,  reten=on,  and  development  requires  considerable  skill   (and  analy=cal  insight)   If  you  had  an  extra  dollar  to  spend,  which  of  these  ac=vi=es  would  you   allocate  it  to?   Let’s  examine  each  tac=c  separately  in  order  to  learn  the  answer…   #monetatewebinar
  • 8. Customer  acquisi=on •  What  metric  is  used  by  most  firms  to  gauge  and  guide  their  acquisi=on   ac=vi=es?   •  CPA  (cost  per  acquisi=on)   •  Big  mistake!   •  Would  you  use  it  for  other  kinds  of  acquisi=on  ac=vi=es  (e.g.,  employees,   technology,  lawyers)?   •  Firms  should  focus  instead  on:   –  VPA   –  “Value  per  acquisi=on”  à  which  is  CLV!       #monetatewebinar
  • 9. “Customers acquired from Google on average have a higher lifetime value (mean CLV at $1,002) than customers acquired from other channels (mean CLV at $808). The difference is even larger for those whose firsttime purchase was off-line (mean CLV at $1,226 versus $959, respectively)…” Marke&ng  Science,  Sept./Oct.  2011,  p.  837-­‐850   #monetatewebinar
  • 10. Customer  acquisi=on:  summary •  You  must  ac=vely  avoid  having  a  “CPA  mentality”   –  Focus  on  ceilings  instead  of  floors…   •  Celebrate  heterogeneity  by  using  CLV  to  drive  acquisi=on  strategies  and   tac=cs   –  Be  more  pa=ent/forward-­‐looking  when  judging  acquisi=on  efforts   •  In  general,  firms  tend  to  underspend  on  acquisi=on,  and  underachieve  as   well   #monetatewebinar
  • 11. Customer  reten=on •  What  metric  is  used  by  most  firms  to  gauge  and  guide  their  reten=on   ac=vi=es?   •  Churn/aCri=on  rate  (or  reten=on  rate)   •  This  is  a  good  metric,  but  you  need  to  examine  it  at  the  right  level…     #monetatewebinar
  • 12. Vodafone  aCri=on  rate  (quarterly  annualized  %)   Source:  Vodafone  Germany  Analyst  &  Investor  Day  presenta=on  (2004-­‐09-­‐27)   #monetatewebinar
  • 13. %  customers   Celebrate  heterogeneity!   ACri=on  rate     Source:  “Vodafone  Achievement  and  Challenges  in  Italy”  presenta=on  (2006-­‐09-­‐12)   #monetatewebinar
  • 14. Transla=on  to  CLV   Attrition rate % customers Low risk 0.06 70 Medium risk 0.35 20 High risk 0.65 10 %  customers   Cluster Average  aCri=on  rate:  0.177  (0.06  ×  0.70  +  0.35  ×  0.20  +  0.65  ×  0.10  =  0.177)      Expected  life=me  using  this  average  aCri=on  rate:  5.6  years   ACri=on  rate     Ø  What’s  wrong  with  this  calcula=on?   #monetatewebinar
  • 15. The  key  insight…   Because  we  can’t  get  accurate  calcula=ons   with  averages,  we  must  work  with  the  actual   rates  for  each  separate  class  of  customers.”   “   Reichheld,  “The  Loyalty  Effect,”  p.  54   #monetatewebinar
  • 16. Cluster Attrition rate % customers Expected lifetime Low risk 0.06 70 16.7 Medium risk 0.35 20 2.9 High risk 0.65 10 1.5 %  customers   Transla=on  to  CLV   Average  aCri=on  rate:  0.177  (0.06  ×  0.70  +  0.35  ×  0.20  +  0.65  ×  0.10  =  0.177)     ACri=on  rate    Expected  life=me  using  this  average  aCri=on  rate:  5.6  years     Correct  average  life=me:  12.4  years  (16.7  ×  0.70  +  2.9  ×  0.20  +  1.5  ×  0.10  =  12.4)   #monetatewebinar
  • 17. Customer  reten=on:  summary •  There  is  no  “average”  customer,  and  calcula=ons  based  on  such  a  no=on   will  always  underes=mate  the  value  of  a  customer  base   –  And  the  difference  can  be  huge!   •  When  heterogeneity  is  accounted  for,  the  “aCri=on  elas=city”  is  much   lower  than  in  the  homogeneous  case   –  Investments  in  reducing  aCri=on  will  have  more  modest  returns  than  expected   #monetatewebinar
  • 18. Customer  development:  quick  summary •  It  is  useful  to  look  for  development  opportuni=es,  but  the  upside  to  these   ac=vi=es  is  more  limited  than  most  managers  think   •  Due  to  massive  customer  heterogeneity,  there  is  more  opportunity  to   “move  the  needle”  via  acquisi=on  than  development   •  S=ll,  it’s  important  to  pursue  development  tac=cs,  but  think  about  them  as   “icing  on  the  cake”       #monetatewebinar
  • 19. Balancing  acquisi=on,  reten=on,  and  development If  you  had  an  extra  dollar  to  spend,  which  of  these  ac=vi=es  would  you   allocate  it  to?   Not  to  minimize  the  importance  of  reten=on  and  development,  but  at  the   margin  I  favor  acquisi=on…     Consider  the  conven=onal  wisdom:  “it  costs  5-­‐10  =mes  more  to  acquire  a  new   customer  than  to  retain  one,  so  work  hard  to  keep  the  ones  you  have…”   This  may  be  true,  but  it  totally  misses  the  point:  focus  on  value  instead  of   costs     #monetatewebinar
  • 20. Overall  summary •  Customer  centricity  can  only  succeed  by  “celebra=ng  heterogeneity”   •  The  greatest  upside  to  improve  customer  profitability  arises  through   “smart  acquisi=on”   •  Don’t  overspend  on  reten=on  –  the  flighty  customers  will  fly  away  no   maCer  what  you  do  (or  they’ll  be  unprofitable)   •  View  development  as  “icing  on  the  cake.”    ACemp=ng  to  turn  persistent   “detractors”  into  “promoters”  is  a  difficult  task,  and  the  resources  required   to  do  so  can  be  beCer  invested  elsewhere   •  Don’t  have  blind  faith  in  the  conven=onal  wisdom  about  these  tac=cs       #monetatewebinar
  • 21.     Professor  Peter  Fader   faderp@wharton.upenn.edu   www.petefader.com   TwiCer:  @faderp       “Customer  Centricity:  Focus  on  the     Right  Customers  for  Strategic  Advantage”   hCp://bit.ly/FaderCC           #monetatewebinar
  • 22. Customer  Centricity  in  the  Digital  World   Bruce  Ernst   Vice  President,  Product  Management   Monetate   #monetatewebinar
  • 24. 40%   Marketers  who  don’t  target  any  customer  or   visitor  segments  to  create  personalized  website   experiences.     Econsultancy,  The  Reali&es  of  Online   Personaliza&on,  2013   28%   Marketers  who  say  they  do  not  know  which   high-­‐value  customers  to  focus  their  markeKng  on.     BRITE/NYAMA  Marke&ng  in  Transi&on  Study,  2012   #monetatewebinar
  • 34. SegmentaKon   •  Is  Real   •  Is  Possible   •  Will  make  a  difference  to   your  business   #monetatewebinar
  • 35. Questions & Answers Peter Fader Professor of Marketing Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania Bruce Ernst Vice President Product Management Monetate #monetatewebinar