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GDC Talk: Lifetime Value: The long tail of Mid-Core games
- 1. 1 Lifetime Value The long tail of mid-core mobile games 1 S A N F R A N C I S CO 2 0 1 7 | # G D C 1 7 Tammy Levy Director of Product
- 2. Publishing 2 Director of Mobile Product Tamara Levy
- 3. Publishing 3 Kongregate Web Platform 100,000+ Uploaded Games Mobile Publisher 30+ Games 100M+ Downloads
- 4. 4 Games that grow The two ends of the funnel
- 5. Publishing 5 Build Games That Can Grow Goal: ROI Positive Higher LTV Strong Game Mechanics Lower CPI Approachable Art Positive ROI LTV > CPI > =
- 6. Publishing UA Costs by Theme and Genre CPI widely vary based on the game’s theme theme, art style and genre Casual: Low CPIs Mid-Core: Medium CPIs Core: High CPIs 6
- 7. Publishing UA Costs by Theme and Genre CPI widely vary based on the game’s theme theme, art style and genre Known IPs: Low CPIs Fantasy: Medium CPIs Sci-Fi: High CPIs Casual: Low CPIs Mid-Core: Medium CPIs Core: High CPIs 6
- 8. 7 Core design decisions drive core KPIs (There are always exceptions) Incremental / Clicker AdCap RTS Star Squad CCG & RPG BattleHand Arcade Tiny Sea Adventure Runner Bullet Boy KPIs by Genre Genres have performance “bands”
- 9. 8 KPIs by Genre Mode: most frequent behavior genre # of games d1 d7 d30 aprdau ltv (180 days) CCG & RPG 7+ 35% 10% 3% $0.30 - $1.00 $1.5 - $5.0 RTS 4 40% 20% 10% $0.10 - $0.20 $1.3 - $3.5 Idle / Incremental 5+ 45% 25% 15% $0.08 $1.5 Runner 5 35% 8% 1% $0.03 $0.10 Arcade 5 20% 5% 1% < $0.01 $0.02 8
- 10. 8 KPIs by Genre Mode: most frequent behavior genre # of games d1 d7 d30 aprdau ltv (180 days) CCG & RPG 7+ 35% 10% 3% $0.30 - $1.00 $1.5 - $5.0 RTS 4 40% 20% 10% $0.10 - $0.20 $1.3 - $3.5 Idle / Incremental 5+ 45% 25% 15% $0.08 $1.5 Runner 5 35% 8% 1% $0.03 $0.10 Arcade 5 20% 5% 1% < $0.01 $0.02 8
- 11. 8 KPIs by Genre Mode: most frequent behavior genre # of games d1 d7 d30 aprdau ltv (180 days) CCG & RPG 7+ 35% 10% 3% $0.30 - $1.00 $1.5 - $5.0 RTS 4 40% 20% 10% $0.10 - $0.20 $1.3 - $3.5 Idle / Incremental 5+ 45% 25% 15% $0.08 $1.5 Runner 5 35% 8% 1% $0.03 $0.10 Arcade 5 20% 5% 1% < $0.01 $0.02 8
- 12. 8 KPIs by Genre Mode: most frequent behavior genre # of games d1 d7 d30 aprdau ltv (180 days) CCG & RPG 7+ 35% 10% 3% $0.30 - $1.00 $1.5 - $5.0 RTS 4 40% 20% 10% $0.10 - $0.20 $1.3 - $3.5 Idle / Incremental 5+ 45% 25% 15% $0.08 $1.5 Runner 5 35% 8% 1% $0.03 $0.10 Arcade 5 20% 5% 1% < $0.01 $0.02 8
- 13. Publishing 9 Impressions Installs Return Rate Early Retention Elder Engagement LTV Funnel Optimization Every step matters
- 14. Publishing Funnel Optimization Every step matters 10 Impressions Installs Return Rate Early Retention Elder Engagement LTV
- 15. 11 Looking beyond early KPIs After all, LTV is lifetime value
- 16. 12 Player Retention 12 Time in Game retention
- 17. 13 Early Retention Comparison: Raid Brigade has much stronger d1-d7 retention 13 Raid Brigade Tyrant Unleashed genre ARPG CCG d1 36% 22% d7 13% 7% d30 3% 3%
- 18. Publishing 14 Elder Retention Looking beyond d30 Raid Brigade Halves every 30 day period 8% retained from d30 to d180 45% 58% 67% 48%
- 19. Publishing 15 Elder Retention Looking beyond d30 Tyrant Unleashed Similar starting point (d30) Players who retain after d30, stay for a long time 40% retained from d30 to d180 66% 84% 88% 79%
- 20. Publishing 16 Looking Beyond d1 - d30 doesn’t tell the whole story Raid Brigade d1 = 36% d180 = 0.24% Tyrant Unleashed d1 = 22% d180 = 1.1%
- 22. 18 Lifetime Spend 18 Desire to Spend arpdau
- 23. 19 Lifetime Spend Comparison: Tyrant’s LTV is more than double 19 Raid Brigade Tyrant Unleashed genre ARPG CCG d1 36% 22% d7 13% 7% d30 3% 3% arpdau $0.40 $0.63 ltv (180d) $1.9 $4.7
- 24. Publishing 20 Comparing d30 LTV Tyrant 10% higher due to stronger ARPDAU
- 25. Publishing 20 Comparing d30 LTV Tyrant 10% higher due to stronger ARPDAU $1.56 $1.42
- 26. Publishing 21 Comparing d180 LTV Tyrant LTV grows faster $4.71 $1.97
- 27. Publishing 22 Rate of Growth Slope => How fast does LTV grow?
- 28. Publishing 22 Rate of Growth Slope => How fast does LTV grow? 1. Linear Regression 2. Slope
- 29. Publishing 22 Rate of Growth Slope => How fast does LTV grow? slope = 0.005 1. Linear Regression 2. Slope or just use excel’s slope formula
- 30. Publishing 23 Rate of Growth The longer players stay => the larger their investment slope = 0.02
- 31. Publishing 24 Comparing Growth Tyrant Unleashed vs. Raid Brigade slope = 0.02 slope = 0.005
- 32. Publishing 25 Comparing d180 LTV Different games, different growth patterns CCG2 RPG Idle CCG1 CCG3 CCG1 3x CCG3
- 33. 26 LTV Growth can accelerate after d30 26
- 34. 27 Lifetime Value 27 * = Player Value ltv Time in Game retention Desire to Spend arpdau
- 35. Publishing 28 Projecting LTVs Simple LTV calculation Area under the retention curve Player Lifetime ARPDAU Player Value by Day *
- 36. Publishing Accuracy Similar to retention Use the monetization curve 29 Projecting LTVs Use retention and monetization curves
- 37. Publishing Accuracy Similar to retention Use the monetization curve 29 Projecting LTVs Use retention and monetization curves
- 38. Publishing 30 Projecting LTVs Daily revenue comes from players of all ages
- 39. Publishing 31 Projecting LTVs Spend patterns vary by game and genre Highest spend on d0 Some growth after d80 Upfront Spend Lowest spend on d0 Spend doubles from d0 to d90 Deep Monetization
- 40. Publishing Flat ARPDAU 6 mo. LTV: $1.60 32 Projecting LTVs Example A: Upfront Monetization 1
- 41. Publishing Flat ARPDAU 6 mo. LTV: $1.60 32 Projecting LTVs Example A: Upfront Monetization ARPDAU Curve 6 mo. LTV: $1.36 1 2
- 42. Publishing Flat ARPDAU 6 mo. LTV: $2.02 33 Projecting LTVs Example B: Deep Monetization 1
- 43. Publishing Flat ARPDAU 6 mo. LTV: $2.02 33 Projecting LTVs Example B: Deep Monetization ARPDAU Curve 6 mo. LTV: $2.62 1 2
- 44. 34 Spending curve to project LTVs 34
- 45. 35 Live servicing is crucial Maximizes long term KPIs
- 46. Publishing 36 Content Cadence New content, regularly Limited time packs and bundles IncreaseIncrease
- 47. Publishing 36 Content Cadence New content, regularly Limited time packs and bundles Increase revenue baseline IncreaseIncrease
- 48. Publishing Higher price points offset fewer purchases 37 Target Different Player Types Different approaches, similar lifts Lower price points generate more purchases
- 49. Publishing 38 Limited Time Events Adding content without hurting core play modes
- 50. Publishing 38 Limited Time Events Adding content without hurting core play modes
- 51. Publishing 38 Limited Time Events Adding content without hurting core play modes
- 52. Publishing 39 Monetization Growth Competitive Events: Players are more likely to monetize
- 53. Publishing 40 Servicing Elder Players Live PvP released as one year celebration
- 54. Publishing 40 Servicing Elder Players Live PvP released as one year celebration
- 55. Publishing 41 Long Term Retention Look beyond d30 Key Takeaways Projecting LTV Use the spending curve for more accurate LTVs LTV Growth LTV can accelerate after d30