Statistical facts and tools for monitoring the preparedness to demographic changes

1. Eurostat
Migration in the
current and future
EU demography
Statistical facts and tools for monitoring
the preparedness to demographic changes
Giampaolo LANZIERI

2. Eurostat
How many migrants in/to the EU-28?
G. Lanzieri: Migration in current and future
EU demography - Statistical facts and tools
Flows in 2013 Measure EU-28 Sum MSs
Immigration Country of previous usual residence 1.7 3.4
Emigration Country of next usual residence 1.4 2.8
Net migration Difference immigration - emigration 0.3 0.6
Net migration +
statistical adjustment
Difference total change – natural change 1.7 1.7
In million, including unknowns
In million, including unknowns and stateless. Residents abroad before 1980 missing for 14 MSs.
Stocks on 1.1.2014 Measure EU-28 Sum MSs
Foreign-born persons Country of birth 34.4 52.3
Foreign citizens Citizenship 19.8 34.1
Formerly resident abroad Ever resided abroad (censuses 2011) --- >59.1
Impact of mirror errors
Impact of adjustments
EUI Conference on Demography,
Florence, 5 February 2016
4

3. Migration measures and age structure
Country of birth Citizenship
EUI Conference on Demography,
Florence, 5 February 2016
G. Lanzieri: Migration in current and future
EU demography - Statistical facts and tools
5

4. Eurostat
Migrants stocks on 1.1.2014
G. Lanzieri: Migration in current and future
EU demography - Statistical facts and tools
EUI Conference on Demography,
Florence, 5 February 2016
6
Note: foreign-born including unknown, foreign citizens including unknown and stateless.

5. Eurostat
How many "EU-born" migrants?
G. Lanzieri: Migration in current and future
EU demography - Statistical facts and tools
Share on total population on 1.1.2014
EUI Conference on Demography,
Florence, 5 February 2016
7

6. Eurostat
The overtaking by migration
G. Lanzieri: Migration in current and future
EU demography - Statistical facts and tools
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
x1000persons
Population change by component, EU-28, 1960-2014
Crude rate of natural change of population Crude rate of net migration plus statistical adjustment Crude rate of total population change
EUI Conference on Demography,
Florence, 5 February 2016
9

7. Eurostat
Migration turnover
EUI Conference on Demography,
Florence, 5 February 2016
G. Lanzieri: Migration in current and future
EU demography - Statistical facts and tools
10
Crude rates
x1000 in 2013

8. Eurostat
Merging populations
G. Lanzieri: Migration in current and future
EU demography - Statistical facts and tools
Source: Lanzieri (2012): “Merging populations”. Eurostat Statistics in Focus 29/2012.
EUI Conference on Demography,
Florence, 5 February 2016
11

9. Eurostat
Contribution of migrants to fertility
G. Lanzieri: Migration in current and future
EU demography - Statistical facts and tools
DE missing.
Share of live births from foreign-born mother in 2013
EUI Conference on Demography,
Florence, 5 February 2016
12

10. Eurostat
Migrant background in working ages
EUI Conference on Demography,
Florence, 5 February 2016
G. Lanzieri: Migration in current and future
EU demography - Statistical facts and tools
13
% persons 15-64 with foreign background
(1st + 2nd generation migrants) in 2014
Source: EU-LFS ad-hoc module on 'Migration and Labour Market' (2014). Note: DK, DE, IE and NL missing.

11. Eurostat
Growing migratory pressure
G. Lanzieri: Migration in current and future
EU demography - Statistical facts and tools
Population
25-29
years old
Source: UNPD (2015): “World Population Prospects: The 2015 Revision”
estimates projections
EUI Conference on Demography,
Florence, 5 February 2016
14

12. Eurostat
Projected migration impact in the EU
Assuming about 44 million persons for
net migration by 2050…
With
migration
Without
migration
Difference
Total population (in million) 526.5 466.4 +59.2 (+13%)
Working-age population (15-64) 299.0 255.1 +43.9 (+17%)
Births (from 2014) (in million) 185.4 167.8 +17.6 (+11%)
Proportion 65+ 28.1% 31.4% -3.3 pp
Median age 46.2 49.5 -3.3
Old Age Dependency Ratio (OADR) x100 49.4 57.4 -8 pp
EUI Conference on Demography,
Florence, 5 February 2016
G. Lanzieri: Migration in current and future
EU demography - Statistical facts and tools
15
Source: EUROPOP2013.

13. Eurostat
A changing population composition
G. Lanzieri: Migration in current and future
EU demography - Statistical facts and tools
Source: Lanzieri (2011): “Fewer, older and multicultural?”. Eurostat Methodologies and Working Papers.
EUI Conference on Demography,
Florence, 5 February 2016
16

14. Eurostat
Possible shrinking of the workforce
Projected change
from 2014 to 2050
of the population
15-64 years old
G. Lanzieri: Migration in current and future
EU demography - Statistical facts and tools
EUI Conference on Demography,
Florence, 5 February 2016
17
Source: EUROPOP2013.

15. Eurostat
The "tornado" of ageing
G. Lanzieri: Migration in current and future
EU demography - Statistical facts and tools
EUI Conference on Demography,
Florence, 5 February 2016
18
Average increase:
10 p.p.
Source: EUROPOP2013.

16. Eurostat
Comparative ageing: EU vs Far East
G. Lanzieri: Migration in current and future
EU demography - Statistical facts and tools
EU Member States
Japan
Korea
Source: Lanzieri (2014): "A Breakdown by Citizenship of the Population Projections of Korea 2010-2060". Research Report.
observed projected
EUI Conference on Demography,
Florence, 5 February 2016
19
% persons aged 65+

17. Eurostat
Ageing acceleration
G. Lanzieri: Migration in current and future
EU demography - Statistical facts and tools
Source: Lanzieri (2011): "The greying of the baby boomers". Eurostat Statistics in Focus 23/2011.
EUI Conference on Demography,
Florence, 5 February 2016
20

18. Eurostat
Some key demographic challenges
• On global scale:
• (Fears of) sustainability of overpopulation
• Speed and variety of population growth across
world regions
• Particularly in Europe (but not only):
• Ageing populations / incoming acceleration
• Diversification populations composition /
integration
• Possible shrinking of population in working ages
G. Lanzieri: Migration in current and future
EU demography - Statistical facts and tools
EUI Conference on Demography,
Florence, 5 February 2016
21

19. Eurostat
Are we getting prepared?
• 'Preparedness': implementation of policies coping
with demographic changes
• (Comparable) Measures of preparedness?
• Different levels of information sources:
• Databases of policies: cross-country analyses on
the pace and type of measures
• Sets of selected indicators: relative positioning of
countries
• Analytical reports: projected impact on specific
domains of interest
• Monitoring -> regular updating
EUI Conference on Demography,
Florence, 5 February 2016
G. Lanzieri: Migration in current and future
EU demography - Statistical facts and tools
22

20. Eurostat
Demographic challenges and
examples of monitoring tools
G. Lanzieri: Migration in current and future
EU demography - Statistical facts and tools
EUI Conference on Demography,
Florence, 5 February 2016
23
Challenges Monitoring tools Periodicity Time coverage
Ageing Ageing Report Every 3 years (latest
reports issued in
2009, 2012, 2015)
Impact to 2060
Active Ageing Index (AAI) Every 2 years 2010, 2012, 2014
Integration Migrant Integration Policy
Index (MIPEX)
Around 4 years
(reports issued in
2004, 2007, 2011,
2015)
2007-2014
EU-LFS ad-hoc module on
migrants
Around 6 years 2008, 2014
Labour supply
shortage
LABREF - LABour market
REForms / Immigration
Annual update 2000-2013

21. Eurostat
Proactivity in labour market policies
G. Lanzieri: Migration in current and future
EU demography - Statistical facts and tools
Source: LABREF database, DG EMPL, European Commission. Graph 1 on website. Accessed on 11.1.2016.
EUI Conference on Demography,
Florence, 5 February 2016
25
Average number of labour market measures by policy domain, EU28

22. Eurostat
Policy measures in labour migration
EUI Conference on Demography,
Florence, 5 February 2016
G. Lanzieri: Migration in current and future
EU demography - Statistical facts and tools
26
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
SE AT DK DE IT EL PT ES BG FI LT NL UK CY IE PL SK BE CZ EE FR SI HU RO LV LU MT
Decreasing No change Increasing
Source: own computation on data from LABREF database, DG EMPL, European Commission. Accessed on 11.1.2016.
Note: HR not included.
Increasing (48): tightening regulatory restrictions
Decreasing (116) : loosening regulatory restrictions
No change (2): no direction of the policy measure
Total number of
measures 2000-13: 166

23. Eurostat
Preparedness to labour shortages?
EUI Conference on Demography,
Florence, 5 February 2016
G. Lanzieri: Migration in current and future
EU demography - Statistical facts and tools
28
Note: LU out of frame.
Source: own computation on data from EUROPOP2013 and LABREF.
Example

24. Eurostat
Preparedness to ageing
EUI Conference on Demography,
Florence, 5 February 2016
G. Lanzieri: Migration in current and future
EU demography - Statistical facts and tools
29
Source: own computation on data from EUROPOP2013 and Zaidi et al (2014) "Active Ageing Index for 28 EU countries".
Example

25. Eurostat
Preparedness to integration
EUI Conference on Demography,
Florence, 5 February 2016
G. Lanzieri: Migration in current and future
EU demography - Statistical facts and tools
30
Source: own computation on data from EUROPOP2013 and Huddleston et al (2015) "Migrant Integration Policy Index 2015".
Note: LU out of frame.
Example

26. Eurostat
An aggregated measure?
EUI Conference on Demography,
Florence, 5 February 2016
G. Lanzieri: Migration in current and future
EU demography - Statistical facts and tools
31
Hypothetical example of a non-weighted
‘index of preparedness to demographic changes’

27. Eurostat
Geographical pattern of preparedness
EUI Conference on Demography,
Florence, 5 February 2016
G. Lanzieri: Migration in current and future
EU demography - Statistical facts and tools
32
Example
based on a
non-
weighted
aggregated
index
(max=1.0)

28. Would you like to know more about?
You are welcome to contact me: giampaolo.lanzieri@ec.europa.eu
or visit our website/database: http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/data/database
G. Lanzieri: Migration in current and future
EU demography - Statistical facts and tools
EUI Conference on Demography,
Florence, 5 February 2016
34