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Reimagining Magazines for Data-Driven Times

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My recent presentation on building magazine audiences in this data-driven era was showcased in the latest edition of The New Single Copy.

I discuss the concept of collaborative industry data, dynamic third party data, predictive modeling and using data to target hyper-niche audience segments.
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Published with John Harrington's permission, co-founder and editor of The New Single Copy.

Since 1996, The New Single Copy has been the publishing industry's leading source of news, data, and information about publications, the retail marketplace, and the changes brought on by digital delivery technology.

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Reimagining Magazines for Data-Driven Times

  1. 1. THE·NEW· SINGLE· COPY Editor: John Harrington Associate Editor: Eileen Harrington October 20, 2014 Volume XIX, #10 AA NEWSLETTER ABOUT PUBLISHING AND PUBLISHING DISTRIBUTION ACT5: At the Magazine Innovation Center The Challenge of Evaluating Magazine Performance In preparing for the panel I put together on magazine/magazine media audience development at the ACT5 conference (see above item), a recurring theme emerged. Not only is the entire magazine business as we have known it changing, but the language describing it and the measures of evaluating performance are shifting as well, and shifting quite rapidly. While this may be understandable, even justifiable, one effect is that, for those of us who write about the business, it is increasingly difficult to assess the condition of the business accurately. As a result, the deeper one get into and adjusts the numbers, the fact is that the business, particularly retail sales, is in worse shape than we thought it was. In introducing the subject at the event, I started with the rather unstartling observation that what I once knew as circulation management was now more commonly referred to as consumer marketing or audience development. Take your (Continued on page 5) Around the Business Martha Stewart- Meredith. Cosmo- Seventeen Martha Stewart Living Omnimedia is outsourcing its advertising, circulation, and printing operations to the Meredith Corp., the published of Better Homes & Gardens, Family Circle, and 12 other magazines. Editorial for Martha Stewart Living and Martha Stewart Weddings will remain with Stewart’s company. Reports said that Meredith will absorb all of Stewart’s business-side employees….At Hearst Magazines, the editor in chief of Cosmopolitan, Joanna Coles, has been named editorial director, and has taken over responsibility for Seventeen magazine as well. As reported on WWD.com (9/29/14), speaking about Seventeen, Coles said, “I have all sorts of ideas for (Continued on page 6) ACT5: At the Magazine Innovation Center Reimagining Magazines for Data Driven Times By Malcolm Netburn, Chairman, CDS Global Editor’s Note: Malcolm Netburn was a participant in a program I assembled on magazine/magazine media audience development for the recent ACT5 program at University of Mississippi. This was the presentation he originally prepared. However, due to the unique nature of the conference, he improvised a good deal at the time. Still, his initial work stands alone and deserves to be delivered to as wide an audience as possible. The following is a slightly modified, with his permission, version of what Malcolm prepared for ACT5. My theme is that the distance between content and audiences must narrow. And my thesis today is that an important way to do that is through the intelligent use of what I call predictive data. Of course, it’s not just the data; a media company also needs to align its culture and approach to make this transformational leap. For it is a leap that will change our thinking about content, audiences, consumer marketing and audience development, and engagement. Our industry is in the midst of a massive transformation. Digital tools and (Continued on page 2) On the Inside The Changing Language of Publishing...Page 6 Folio Survey of CEOs …...…Page 6 Note: The next issue of The New Single Copy will be published on November 3, 2014.
  2. 2. THE NEW SINGLE COPY, October 20, 2014 Page 2 platforms are disrupting every aspect of media, from the content we create, to the platforms and channels we use to connect with consumers, to the ways we measure success. And yet, even in the face of all this change, some things about the magazine business haven’t changed. For starters, the two primary ways that magazines make money are still: circulation and advertising. This disruptive change is not about the dislocation from print or analog world to a digital world. There have always been changes to the form of distribution. And it’s not even about the changing demands for content. Our biggest challenge in the magazine industry has to do with our fundamental outlook and approach to business. And unfortunately while we’ve been chasing down so many dead end rabbit holes trying to redirect our industry, we have neglected the need for this fundamental change. A Shift of Focus: So what is this seismic change? For our industry to thrive, we must shift from a focus on extracting more revenue and profit from our customers to a focus on enhancing the lifetime value of our customers. The concept is simple: The more that we understand about our audience, the more value we can provide. The more we strip away the noise, eliminate the friction between publishers and consumers, the sooner we can create an environment where the magazine and the audience are truly connected. So, how do we do that? We do that by offering high quality engagement and loyalty-engendering experiences. We do that by using data to better understand and support consumers. And we then accomplish this by changing our approach to sales and marketing. I am talking about how to shift our approach to engagement, and the role that smart data plays in that effort. With the kinds of powerful databases and data analysis capabilities we have available today, we have the potential to build and field fully dynamic and fully personalized interactions with our customers at the individual customer level, in real time, millions of times a week, affordably. But to do that, we will need to do three things: 1.We need to develop and foster a collaborative approach to data, including new, national micro-targeting models to help predict and shape media purchasing behaviors. Keeping our data in silos, only tracking our own activities, won’t be sufficient. 2.We need to work together as publishers to outline a strategy based on the principle that we can identify “likely magazine buyers” and then engage them in a direct, tailored way across multiple mediums and platforms. Optimization has a place, but there are bigger, more important opportunities to pursue. 3.We must be more aggressive about pursuing innovation, not just for individual companies, but industry-wide. We have to break down the silos, build operations that are specifically designed to test assumptions, learn in real-time, and continuously inform our use of smart data. How We Got Here: Before I go further, I think it’s important to know where we came from, and remember how we got to the place we are today. Of course, there was Gutenberg. Then the German literary and philosophy journal, Erbauliche Monaths Unterredungen, introduced the world to the magazine in the year 1663. Gentleman’s Magazine arrived in 1731. And in the early 19th century we saw the first ads in magazines. In the late 19th century, with the invention of the rotary press, the number of printed copies increased, the prices dropped, and magazines began their march towards becoming one of the world’s leading media. We first heard names like William Randolph Hearst and Henry Luce in the early 20th century. The middle of the century brought us Helene Gordon Lazareff and Elle; and the first teen magazine, Twen, out of Germany, hit the scene in 1959. In the 1960s, Helen Gurley Brown refocused Cosmopolitan as a magazine for women. The 1970s welcomed People. And Entertainment Weekly was introduced in 1990, around the same time that the rise of the internet first introduced digital content to the world of magazines. Fast forward two decades. Mobile devices are the primary way that people get and share information, and there are a wide range of apps, eBooks, social networks, and other tools to facilitate content discovery, consumption and sharing as never before. Content is delivered in flexible, mixed distribution networks that actually address the many differing and changing needs of our consumers. But even with this explosion in content distribution— printed magazines remain a significant force in the media landscape. For all the stories labeled “Print is Dead,” the print magazine remains vital, powerful and valuable. And value always generates revenue and profit. As technology has advanced, all forms of media have changed: newspapers, radio, television, and even the internet. But the changes are not limited to the devices used to distribute and consume media. Consumers have changed. How consumers behave in relation to media; who they trust, what they share, when and what they read, watch, and listen to are constantly evolving. And as different media has evolved, its influence on our society has increased. Think about it: 92 percent of Americans aged 12 and older listen to the radio each week, consuming it at home, in their cars and at the workplace. 99 percent of American households own a television. The average American watches more than five hours of programming every day. And during peak evening hours, Netflix is streaming so many programs, it uses up to 34 percent of America's Internet capacity. Social media is no longer seen as a stand-alone set of tools, it has become integrated into every aspect of business and culture. And yes, magazines are also massively influential. Of all American adults, 91 percent read print or digital magazines. So tell me, why has the common wisdom declared the magazine dead? Why have we been told consumers aren’t reading print magazines anymore? Why have we been led to believe that print magazines are obsolete because of their fixed, non-interactive format? It simply isn’t true. Our appetite for content is not limited to one medium or another, but rather each medium has its most effective role in satisfying the consumer. Magazines are thriving on their own - and in connection with other forms of media. Why do magazines have such staying power? Magazine brands are respected sources of content. The (Continued on page 3) Data Driven Times (cont.)
  3. 3. THE NEW SINGLE COPY, October 20, 2014 Page 3 print magazine - ink on paper - has been and is still the heartbeat of those brands. And the printed version continues to deliver much of the creative energy that powers digital as well. Magazines also have reach and influence. The top 25 print magazines reach more adults and teens than the top 25 regularly scheduled primetime TV shows. Readership is consistent across generations, seeing less fluctuation among age groups than TV, Internet and radio. And consumers are spending a significant amount of time - 40 minutes on average - reading each print issue. Oh, and by the way, print still drives revenue and engagement, in case you were wondering. Of course, there is a lot about magazines that we don’t know. And if we don’t learn soon, we may not have a chance to learn. We don’t know enough about how audiences get/share magazine content. We don’t know enough about why people buy magazines, at the newsstand or in the form of a subscription, digital or print. And what influences those decisions. We don’t understand how to predict rather than model existing behavior. And just to make sure we are all clear; if we don’t learn soon, we may not have the chance to learn. What We Do Know: One of the truly exciting things about the digital revolution is that we now have dramatically more information than ever before in history about how people are consuming media. Here is just a sampling of that information: We know that people want quick flashes of what’s happening in the world, the same way people look at Twitter. We all like to scan headlines and information on any device at any time. We know that readers value breaking news and information, the latest information, the most pressing updates. We also know that that readers look to magazines for more thoughtful or engaging information, for context and perspective. We are seeing the demographic and psychographic makeup of the magazine audience changing over time, and new cohorts of the population embracing media as never before. Consumers now have three or four different devices within reach at any given time, and their media experience moves from one to the other at their discretion. There is more media being consumed today, more interest in news, more sharing of content, than ever before. And beyond the world of media, the advances in technology, the new ways to engage with content , they are re-shaping the path to purchase, across both goods and services, online and offline. There are myriad connections between media consumption and other consumer behaviors, whether its the purchase of a car or the making of a charitable donation, and we would be well served as magazine publishers to understand our influence on those behaviors, and how those behaviors increasingly influence people’s connections to media. It is true, an explosion of data has made it possible for us to make decisions in real time and to adjust how we apply resources to talk and engage with consumers. There are more opportunities to track and measure activity. Yet activity is only a small fraction of what we need to understand to succeed. Knowing where to reach our audience, is only part of the equation. We must consider what different signals indicate, what stands out among all the noise -- and what consumers need and expect, whether their clicks tell that story or not. To put it simply: The key is knowing who your customers are, and aren't. Magazine publishers know a fair amount about their existing customers - but not enough about who isn’t buying media, or why and that is the crux of the matter. There is enormous power for marketers in connecting customer data between the analog world and the digital one. Today, we have the ability to view customer information and activity in an integrated, holistic and increasingly real-time way across dozens and dozens of touch points. This in turn is allowing us to create personalized and customized marketing messages and prompts also in real time. This allows us to customize, package, and distribute content in unique and personalized ways, to create deep and long lasting relationships with current, and more importantly, new market segments. And that is just scratching the surface. We all know there have been some declines in print subscriptions, and more significant declines in newsstand sales. Print subscriptions are down 12%. Newsstand has had a much steeper decline in the same period, 40%. This has partly occurred as new channels have expanded the ability to reach our audiences. But it has also been driven, in no small part, by the lack of, or in some cases the loss of, a feeling of connection between publishers and consumers. Our response to this trend has been to focus a disproportionate amount of energy on converting existing print subscribers to digital and maximizing short term revenue opportunities among customers already in our files. To maximize short-term financial gain, even if it means mortgaging our future. That is what most American publishers are doing, that is the pressure we all feel. And we all understand, and share, the survival and revenue motivation. Protect what you have, defend the borders. But it is short term gain at the risk of long term annihilation. Expanding Audiences: It doesn’t have to be this way. We can be looking at ways to expand our audience and find, or maybe more importantly, create a new audience of media consumers. That should be our focus and one that we act on with great urgency. We have tried countless different ways to optimize the way we sell magazines - online and offline. Many of them have been very successful, and either sustained our business or helped to find incremental growth to offset other declines. We’ve sold millions and millions of print subscriptions over the years by tailoring offers based on logical preference. If you purchased Marie Claire, we tried to cross-sell you Cosmo. We have also wasted a lot of money mis-interpreting the signals that people send out, believing that nominal interest in (Continued on page 4) Data Driven Times (Cont.)
  4. 4. THE NEW SINGLE COPY, October 20, 2014 Page 4 one title, or even an article, was a defining characteristic of a media consumer.. Not that long ago, maybe one in twenty customers we targeted online purchased more than one title. With dynamic up-selling and cross-selling, now one in four customers is buying more than one product. And we are able to branch out, to sell books and develop digital continuity programs that are also sold in the same way. There’s no magic here, it’s merely the application of long tested and proved analog marketing techniques adapted for new platforms. But this ability to continually optimize and create focus and efficiency within our existing universe of data has limits. Our continual focus on identifying media consumers whose behaviors match those of our existing subscribers will only yield us some of the growth that we want and need. Put another way, we can’t optimize our way to future success. The best consumer and audience development minds - in media, and every other industry, are running out of tricks. They may not or cannot admit to that publicly, but that is the case for many of them. They have optimized optimization and there is little more to squeeze from that lemon. In their efforts to make order out of marketing chaos, the people charged with selling media have narrowed their ambitions to simply engaging with surefire customers who can be targeted with digital. They find their best, most reliable customers, more directly and cost effectively, by relying on high-tech, hyper-specific programmatic and real-time targeting. They reach the people who have raised their hand, in some way or another, and demonstrated that they are ready to be sold. But that’s all they find. In the interest of effectiveness and efficiency they are giving up on the non-converted. We cannot continue to make that same mistake. So what is the solution? What can change this paradigm, where what made us successful may also contribute to our downfall? Predictive Marketing: I believe the big opportunity for publishers today is in predictive modeling. Use data to identify new prospective customers based on their interests and behaviors. Look at predictive analytics as a way to shape interest and frame discussion that support deeper engagement with consumers. Find consumers you did not know even existed. We should not be satisfied with simply finding potential customers, we should be committed to creating and shaping the behaviors of new customers. There are three important elements to this type of effort: First, you have to collect the widest range of valuable data, from a range of sources inside and outside the world of media, to help form the foundation for the data analysis. It’s not about the volume of data. The goal is to identify the most appropriate data for the industry, and the desired outcomes relating to customer/subscriber value that will benefit all involved. Hard questions need to be answered. Who are the best partners and sources for this data? What other industries - health, auto, sports and entertainment, etc. - engage with customers in a similar way to how we do in the world of media and publishing? Second, you must develop the models to identify high value target audiences as well as explore connections between media consumption and other consumer behaviors. The incredible targeting ability available through programmatic advertising, real-time-buying and other data-fueled marketing tools and platforms allows us to respond to signals in an increasingly precise way, to swarm when someone provides us with a sign they are interested in purchasing media. But we can also develop the models that allow us to predict which consumers are likely to purchase media, and determine the right message, context, and products they will respond to best. (Think about it: it is possible to know, or at least analytically intuit, what information, and in what form, a consumer is likely to buy even before he knew it himself. Sounds crazy? That’s what they thought about the practical use of electricity.) Third, you need to identify the opportunities to engage audiences and test different methods for marketing and communicating with potential customers. Big data is nothing new to this industry. But the organizational structure, the approach to marketing, and the ways that consumers are engaged in most cases has not dramatically changed. We need to think differently, organize ourselves differently, and be disciplined in our efforts to uncover new potential questions and ideas for how data can be applied, and develop and test different ways to engage consumers, both cross-platform, and cross-sector. There are, of course, sophisticated modeling efforts underway with most big publishers, but not like this. What I am challenging you to do, what I am challenging our industry to do, is look ahead, to look uncertainty square in the eye, and take big bold steps. And to do it together. This challenge is bigger than any one company. Each of us has to be willing to take the first step, and right now too many in the magazine business are reticent to change. But we have to remember that we will all benefit by moving forward. Let’s be honest. We either experiment, aggressively and continuously, or we will fail. The status quo is at best a short term survival techniques. Innovation is not about incremental gains or subtle adjustments. We can’t wait for trends to take shape in other parts of the consumer journey and then organize ourselves to respond quickly. The future of our industry will be wholly different than it looks today - and it is our obligation to figure out what that means. This kind of forward-looking, predictive approach requires us as an industry to work together and learn from each other. To achieve a successful shift from such a heavy focus on revenue to a more engagement focused approach, will require (Continued on page 5) Data Driven Times (Cont.) PAGE Collaborative Data – Three Steps 1. Collect the widest range of valuable data 2. Develop the models to identify high‐value target audiences 3. Identify the opportunities to engage audiences
  5. 5. THE NEW SINGLE COPY, October 20, 2014 Page 5 a collective effort, across the industry. We need to work together to make it happen. We need to work together, to develop a set of tools and plans that will support a collaborative approach to using data. We need to work together, to better understand the application of a data-driven approach to marketing. Where do we start? As I said at the beginning, I want you to remember three things: We need to develop and foster a collaborative approach to data, including new, national micro-targeting models to help predict and shape media purchasing behaviors. Keeping our data in silos, only tracking our own activities, won’t be sufficient. We need to work together as Collaborative Data – Challenge publishers to outline a strategy based on the principle that we can identify likely magazine buyers' and then engage them in a direct, tailored way across multiple mediums and platforms. Optimization has a place, but there are bigger, more important opportunities to pursue. And, we must be more aggressive about pursuing innovation - not just for individual companies, but industry-wide. We have to break down the silos, build operations that are specifically designed to test assumptions, learn in real-time, and continuously inform our use of smart data. We start by taking a holistic view of the power of micro-targeting. We start by integrating the data and analysis derived from predictive modeling into current marketing, communications, and other efforts. We start by embracing this challenge, and working together to build the models that predict the future of print and media, not just the models that respond to the signals that consumers are sending out. And most importantly, we start by working together. There are no easy answers, but there is more clarity about the direction we need to go in. Today we’re thinking hard about the future of magazines, not just the content, or the platform, but the audience, and how we engage with them, what we know about them, and how we better organize ourselves to provide them value. I believe a new era of communications is taking shape. In this new era, consumers will have much more access, choice and interaction, and that will come in various channels across the print and digital spectrum. And publishers will not only create even better, more dynamic products - but we will figure out new, more sophisticated, more personalized and valuable ways to engage with consumers. As an industry, if we collaborate and join our collective talents and information, I see a bright future for this crazy but amazing industry■ Data Driven Times (Cont.) PAGE We Must be More Aggressive About Pursuing Innovation pick. However, from there I noted that, for many years, circulation was broadly and comfortably divided into subscriptions and single copies. Each half-year measuring period, when the leading audit service, the Alliance for Audited Media (AAM), issued its Snapshot reports, observers generally wrote about the direction of each category (more often that not, single copies were down and subscriptions were up). Now, it is not that simple. A few years ago, some new columns began appearing in the semi-annual Snapshot reports. Sub-divisions appeared under the “Subscription” column: “Paid” and “Verified.” Further along on the page, there was a column “Total Analyzed Non-Paid.” There also was another, “Total Digital Replica,” which was a combined figure of both subscriptions and single copies for tablet devices. The Snapshot reports compared each magazine’s figures for each of these categories for the most recent six-month period against the figures from the same period in the previous year. Well, almost “each.” Apparently, since replica was such a new phenomena, as of yet, those numbers are not compared.. In broad strokes, the health of the magazine business was assessed using these comparative statistics. Historically, a lot has depended on whether these figures were up or down, most notably the attitudes of the magazine advertising community, which, of course, has been the financial core, for most publishers, of the magazine business model. (Note: In our last issue (9/29/14), we featured an article on AAM’s paragraph 6 circulation, which is the bulk of those numbers reported as “verified.” The article was written by Baird Davis, my colleague and sometimes collaborator.) What Does it Mean for Single Copy Performance? The only way to break out digital replica is to look at individual publisher reports submitted to AAM, where subscription and single copy replicas are identified separately. The New Single Copy reviewed the statements for nearly 200 magazines, which represented an estimated 95% of single copy sales for audited titles. When calculated for frequency, digital replica single copies were 5.0% of all units for the first six months of the year, which reduced the total units sold in bricks and mortar retail stores to 184.9 million, nearly 10 million copies fewer than we had originally estimated. In terms of retail dollar sales, we estimated that removing the replica copies reduced the value by 6.1% to $747.1 million, more than $50 million below our earlier calculation. It may get a little tiresome, but in our 8/11/14 issue, our analysis of the preliminary AAM figures for January to June estimated that single copy unit sales were down by 11.4% and their dollar value was off by 6.5%. Clearly, if we're trying to present an accurate portrait of “real” retail sales, the results were even worse than that. We did not go back to publishers’ statements for the same period in 2013, so we are not able to (Continued on page 6) Evaluating Performance (Cont.) We originally estimated that single copy unit sales were down by 11.4% and their dollar value was off by 6.5%. Clearly, if we're trying to pre-sent an accurate portrait of “real” retail sales, the results were even worse than that.
  6. 6. put hard numbers on those calculations. However, Baird Davis advised us that his review found that share of the digital replica single copies for the most important single copy publishers increased from 2.6% to 7.2%. Once again, the blunt message is that the condition of retail magazine sales is even more dire than we thought it was. Some Postscripts: Certainly, we are not the only ones recognizing that the “old” measurements, and the language accompanying them, of the magazine/magazine media business are inadequate. That was the message of Magazine Media 360, the new metric introduced last month by MPA, The Association of Magazine Media. 360 includes readership, as well as data for social media, video, and other digital platforms. At the same time, MPA’s related organization, Publisher Information Bureau (PIB) will no longer make public it reports of ad pages. AAM will continue to report circulation figures for its member magazines, yet, the same time, it’s CEO, Tom Drouillard, said, “I enthusiastically applaud the MPA for this initiative.” He added that, “Census-based circulation is the essential, foundational metric on which other audience measures are built.” I like to use a quote from Justin Smith, then the president of The Atlantic Media Group, and made at an AAM conference in 2012. He said, “2005 to 2020 will be known as the ‘fog period,’ when nobody knew what was going on.” Apparently, organizations like MPA and AAM are making initiatives that insure the “fog period” will be shorter that Mr. Smith predicted. It isn’t over yet, but the sooner it ends, the better the business will be.■ Some Other Notes on Change: Some parts of the industry’s language have already changed. MPA the Association of Magazine Media was, not all that long ago, the Magazine Publishers of America. AAM, of course, until late 2012, was the Audit Bureau of Circulations; and its Snapshot reports were called Fas Fax reports.■ Evaluating Performance (Cont.) THE NEW SINGLE COPY, October 20, 2014 Page 6 brand extensions and brand partnerships.” The publisher of Cosmopolitan, Donna Kalajian Lagani, who is also a senior vice president and publishing director of Hearst, will now provide the same responsibilities for Seventeen as well.■ Some Thoughts on the Changing Language of Publishing David Remnick is the editor in chief of The New Yorker, which I have categorically called on more than a few occasions, the best magazine in the world. In an interview on WWD.com (10/10/14), he was asked if he stood by an earlier statement that he was uncomfortable with the idea of a magazine as a “brand”? His reply: “The only reason the word ‘brand’ gets a little tiresome is that something that is complex and wonderful and deep begins to sound like a can of tomato soup. I recoil at that, but I’m used to it.” Later in the interview, he was asked about his views on “native advertising.” He replied, “I think advertising is advertising. If it’s 100 percent clear what it is, then, with certain exceptions, I can live with that. What I object to is tricking the reader and blurring the lines so that unsuspecting readers, thinking they are getting something that is assigned and edited by the editorial side, are getting something quite different. They are getting an advertisement.” Simon Dumenco is a columnist, one with an irreverent bent, for Advertising Age. On Adage.com (10/13/14), his column was “What We Talk About When We Talk About ‘Content.’” He imagined, somewhere in the not-too-distant future, a school that will change its teaching of language arts. “Instead of term papers and essays, students will have to write - nay, produce - engaging content. Instead of English Comp, kids will THENEW·SINGLECOPY © is published 23 times a year, by Harrington Associates, LLC., P. O. Box 1332, Charlestown, RI 02813- 1332. 401-213-6830. FAX 508-819-4926. E-mail: jharrington@nscopy.com. ISSN 1521-1169. Subscription price : $450 per year. Deliv-ered by e-mail. Single copy: $50. Reproduction and/or redistribution by any means without written permission is prohibited. www.nscopy.com enroll in Content 101.” He expanded on his thoughts: “When I was a kid, nobody talked about words and pictures as ‘content.’ This’ll sound pretentious (because it is), but I aspired to work with language and ideas when I grew up; the notion that creative expression was destined to be a commodity was foreign to me. (‘Where can I find the content?’ ‘Aisle 4, next to the stuff and things.’)” The views expressed above are, of course, solely those of the editor and the columnist cited.■ Folio Survey of Publishers’ Plans and Expectations Based on responses from 230 consumer magazine CEOs, Folio Magazine reports that change in the business will continue, but not at a breakneck pace. The full survey results were reported on Foliomag.com (10/15/14). Some excerpts from the article follow. Print advertising, which produced 44% of revenue last year, is expected to contribute 44% for 2014. Digital ad revenue’s share will grow from 11% to 13%. Circulation revenue will remain constant at a 30% share; and, of that, subscriptions and newsstand will each maintain their shares, at 19% and 11% respectively. On the issue of technology, Folio found sharp differences between large and small publishers. Two-thirds of larger publishers expect increased digital revenue, but only a little more than half of small publishers anticipate digital to grow. Overall, while mobile revenue is expected to grow substantially, it will only account for a little less than two percent of revenue for the year. Not surprisingly, there is little if any optimism about newsstand. A third expect decline, and only eight percent look for growth, and the rest see no change. Perhaps because of the tumult of the past year, double digit slippage, and wholesaler-closings, only four percent of respondents called newsstand a “priority” for the year.■ Around the Business (Cont.)

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