Ne Corridor Facts

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Ne Corridor Facts

  1. 1. Just the Facts Please! California High Speed Rail Projections January 2009
  2. 2. Population Facts Metro MSA Area Population Tourist Rooms Sold (In millions) Boston 4,522,858 11.7 Bridgeport/Stamford 895,030 Providence/New Bedford 1,596,611 New Haven 846,101 NYC/NJ 19,006,198 23.9 Philadelphia 5,838,731 10.2 Baltimore 2,667,117 6.6 DC 5,358,130 22.8 Totals 40,730,776 75.2 SF/Oakland 4,274,531 13.4 San Jose 1,819,198 Fresno/Modesto/Bakersfield 2,220,152 LA 9,862,049 25.5 Anaheim/Orange County 3,010,759 13.9 San Diego 3,001,072 14.2 Totals 24,187,761 67 Source: US Census http://www.census.gov/popest/metro/CBSA-est2008-annual.html Source: Forbes Magazine http://tinyurl.com/m8j85t
  3. 3. Reality Check <ul><li>Amtrak FY 2009 Results </li></ul><ul><li>CHSRA </li></ul>NE Corridor Passengers 40.7 million people Acela 3,019,627 Northeast Regional 6,920,610 Special Trains 5,790 Total 9,946,027 SF to SD Passengers 24.1 million people Original plan 117,000,000 Revised plan 55,000,000 Dec. 9 Plan 41,000,000
  4. 4. More Reality <ul><li>If CHRSA manages to carry the same percentage of population as Amtrak does in the NE Corridor, CHRSA would carry 5,906,396 people. </li></ul><ul><li>The population density in the Northeast Corridor is nearly double the density in the SF-San Diego Corridor. </li></ul><ul><li>Train stations in NY, Boston and Washington are adjacent to hotels, offices and convention centers as well as highly developed urban mass transit systems. </li></ul>
  5. 5. The legislature has demanded CHRSA deliver a detailed business plan. The Dec. 2009 plan omits the most critical section of any business plan which is a profit and loss statement.
  6. 6. Ask the CHRSA to submit a business plan with a profit and loss statement showing results at various ridership levels starting at 4.67 million passengers per year for the LA to SF segment
  7. 7. Why Base the Plan on 4.67 million? Assume optimistically that CHSRA can capture 50% of the Core Market
  8. 8. Data Point: The UC Institute of Transportation Studies estimates that everyone who drove and flew between the Los Angeles basin and the San Francisco Bay Area in 2007 totaled eight million people. http://innovations.coe.berkeley.edu/vol3-issue9-nov09/highspeedrail
  9. 9. The Bottom Line <ul><li>If CHRSA is able to capture 50% of the traffic between the LA Basin and the SF Bay Area and it is able to generate an operating profit of 30% of revenue, it will have generated losses of $49.15 Billion by 2060. </li></ul><ul><li>This is based on a construction cost of $47 billion and no additional capital investment and the ability to borrow at no more than 5% </li></ul>

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