The State Of Advertising In Aust

Markus von der Luehe
Markus von der LueheManaging Director at Year of the Goat
The State of
Advertising in
  Australia

                 Adknowledge Seminar
                    29 September 2009
The State of Advertising


    The sub text:   Social Media
                    New Technology
                    New Audiences
                    New Engagement
from
Shock & Awe
  to
Hearts & Minds
penetration        surround the
              strategy consumer
  coverage
              impact
  ambush
  marketing       campaign
              weight     guerilla
                      marketing
conversation        intimacy

dialogue                listening
   engagement
                      touch-points

      fulfillment   connection
An evolution in the economics of
advertising
   Limited Choice,        Boundless Choice,
   Boundless Attention    Limited Attention


   High Competitive       Low Competitive
   Entry Barriers         Entry Barriers


   Competitively          Consumer focused
   focused



   Products with Claims   Brands with Values
                          and Attributes
The Evolution
 Product Claim
                 Values Based
The Cycle of Media
                                                                                                                                                                342
14000                                                                                                                                                    331           335     350



12000
           All Ad spend 1986-2009 ($million),                                                                                              285
                                                                                                                                                  297
                                                                                                                                                                               300
           and indexed versus 1986                                                                                                  265                 11720
                                                                                                                                                                12130
                                                                                                                                                                     11865


10000                                                                                                                        237                10527                          250
                                                                                                        225                                10109
                                                                                                                      217
                                                                                                 207           209                  9387
                                                                                          199
8000                                                                               185                                       8395                                              200
                                                                            168                         7970
                                                                      167                                             7682
                                                                                                 7337          7423
                                                              153                         7061
                             141   137                 139                         6587
6000                                            135                                                                                                                            150
                      124                129
                                                                     5915 5954
               108                                            5414
        100                  4980 4870          4790 4923
4000                  4392               4580                                                                                                                                  100
               3843
        3543

2000                                                                                                                                                                           50



   0                                                                                                                                                                           0                     Share of Ad spend 1986-2009 by media type




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                                                                                                                                                             20
                                                                                                                                                                   100%                                                                                                                         2.2     2.8
                                                                                                                                                                                                          5.8    5.8    5.4    5.4     4.4    4.3    4.2            3.9    4.2    3.5    3.7                     4.1     6.1
                                                                                                                                                                             7.2     7.2    6.9    6.9                                                      6.9                                 3.4     3.5
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               3.5             9.5    11.5
                                                                  Ad spend ($m illion)           Index versus 1986                                                                                                                                                                                                                           14.1
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    7.9           8.6                                  3.5                          16.5
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          9      9     8.8    8.6    8.8                   8.8           9.4
                                                                                                                                                                                            8.9    8.6    8.8    9.2                                        8.2                                   9.1   8.8                    3.6
                                                                                                                                                                             8.9     9.3                                                                                                                         9                    3.7
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       8.9                   3.7
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               8.8                  3.6
                                                                                                                                                                      80%                                                                                                                                                             8.4
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             8.2
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     8




                                                                                                                                                                                                          49.1                 49.3    51.7   51.9   51.3          53.5           48.5
                                                                                                                                                                      60%     48     48.3   50.2   50.4          51.7   50.4                                  53           52.8          52.6   49.9    49.3   47.9
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       47.2
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               44.8
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      43.6
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             42.4
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    37.9



                                                                                                                                                                      40%




                                                                                                                                                                      20%
                                                                                                                                                                             34.2    34.7          33.8   35.7          34.7   35.8    34.5   34.2   35.2             34          34.4          34.6    34.8   34.8
                                                                                                                                                                                            33.4                 32.7                                       34.2           33.4          33.5                          33.4    32.5     32   30.7   28.4




                                                                                                                                                                      0%




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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           20

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                                                                                                                                                                                                                          TV          Print         Radio          Cinema           OOH           Online
This is the confluence of cyclical and
         structural influences
6000
                                 Print has                                                                    All fall
                                 steepest fall                                                                except
5000                             Radio hardly                                                                 Online
                                 affected
4000




3000
                Ad spend 1986-2009 by media type ($million)
2000




1000                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        1174
                                                                                                                                                                      1200                                                                                                                                                                         1200


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     1023
  0
                                                                                                                                                                      1000                                                                                                                  Slower                                                 1000
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    86

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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            growth,
                                                                                                                                                                                        Online spend versus all advertising                                                                                                    806
                                            TV            Print           Radio               Cinema               OOH             Online
                                                                                                                                                                      800              spend 2002-2009 indexed versus 2002                                                                 but no fall                                             800



                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        599
                                                                                                                                                                      600                                                                                                                                                                          600



                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 371
                                                                                                                                                                      400                                                                                                                                                                          400


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           232
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             158 154 200
                                                                                                                                                                      200                                                                                                                          141           132 137 153
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            100

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    122
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            100 109
                                                                                                                                                                        0                                                                                                                                                                          0




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                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Online ad spend index versus 2002              All ad spend index versus 2002
The future where technology meets
psychology

    Downturn has forced a tighter

            coupling of

      values & value conscious
Our future has two media trinities
                Trinity 1
                Bought



                 Multi-
                 Media

   Earned                     Owned
Our future has two media trinities
                Trinity 2
               Interactive




              Marketing
              Orientation
   Mobile                     Social
The Future Multi-media Game Play
      2009
                  Personal
      2014      Communication




                Social Media
   Mobile
  Internet
                         PC
                      Internet

    Low Reach                                            High Reach

                                                     Analogue
                                                        TV
                     Magazines
  Digital                                              Newspapers
    TV
                                             Radio
                   Mass
                Communication
                               Out of home
What if, in the future…..

   Importance                   Ad Expenditure
            Main Media




            Social Media



     2009                Time         2014
In the future
  Who is king?
Holy Grail
• Measurement and recognition of multi channel
  performance

• Data in everything to an increasingly granular level


• How do we use this data to generate knowledge
  for our clients in terms of where and how they
  should INVEST


                          ROI
Chemistry
            +
      Culture
            =
Collaboration
Looking ahead




data/creativity
This future which has started is
about…..
1. An increasingly personalised opportunity to
   effectively communicate

2. Technology meets psychology

3. Media in the forefront as a Holy Trinity of bought,
   owned, earned or mobile, social or interactive

4. Investment patterns must and are changing

5. The Holy Grail is still knowledge of what is
   working best
1 of 19

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The State Of Advertising In Aust

  • 1. The State of Advertising in Australia Adknowledge Seminar 29 September 2009
  • 2. The State of Advertising The sub text: Social Media New Technology New Audiences New Engagement
  • 3. from Shock & Awe to Hearts & Minds
  • 4. penetration surround the strategy consumer coverage impact ambush marketing campaign weight guerilla marketing
  • 5. conversation intimacy dialogue listening engagement touch-points fulfillment connection
  • 6. An evolution in the economics of advertising Limited Choice, Boundless Choice, Boundless Attention Limited Attention High Competitive Low Competitive Entry Barriers Entry Barriers Competitively Consumer focused focused Products with Claims Brands with Values and Attributes
  • 7. The Evolution Product Claim Values Based
  • 8. The Cycle of Media 342 14000 331 335 350 12000 All Ad spend 1986-2009 ($million), 285 297 300 and indexed versus 1986 265 11720 12130 11865 10000 237 10527 250 225 10109 217 207 209 9387 199 8000 185 8395 200 168 7970 167 7682 7337 7423 153 7061 141 137 139 6587 6000 135 150 124 129 5915 5954 108 5414 100 4980 4870 4790 4923 4000 4392 4580 100 3843 3543 2000 50 0 0 Share of Ad spend 1986-2009 by media type E 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 100% 2.2 2.8 5.8 5.8 5.4 5.4 4.4 4.3 4.2 3.9 4.2 3.5 3.7 4.1 6.1 7.2 7.2 6.9 6.9 6.9 3.4 3.5 3.5 9.5 11.5 Ad spend ($m illion) Index versus 1986 14.1 7.9 8.6 3.5 16.5 9 9 8.8 8.6 8.8 8.8 9.4 8.9 8.6 8.8 9.2 8.2 9.1 8.8 3.6 8.9 9.3 9 3.7 8.9 3.7 8.8 3.6 80% 8.4 8.2 8 49.1 49.3 51.7 51.9 51.3 53.5 48.5 60% 48 48.3 50.2 50.4 51.7 50.4 53 52.8 52.6 49.9 49.3 47.9 47.2 44.8 43.6 42.4 37.9 40% 20% 34.2 34.7 33.8 35.7 34.7 35.8 34.5 34.2 35.2 34 34.4 34.6 34.8 34.8 33.4 32.7 34.2 33.4 33.5 33.4 32.5 32 30.7 28.4 0% E 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 TV Print Radio Cinema OOH Online
  • 9. This is the confluence of cyclical and structural influences 6000 Print has All fall steepest fall except 5000 Radio hardly Online affected 4000 3000 Ad spend 1986-2009 by media type ($million) 2000 1000 1174 1200 1200 1023 0 1000 Slower 1000 E 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 growth, Online spend versus all advertising 806 TV Print Radio Cinema OOH Online 800 spend 2002-2009 indexed versus 2002 but no fall 800 599 600 600 371 400 400 232 158 154 200 200 141 132 137 153 100 122 100 109 0 0 E 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 Online ad spend index versus 2002 All ad spend index versus 2002
  • 10. The future where technology meets psychology Downturn has forced a tighter coupling of values & value conscious
  • 11. Our future has two media trinities Trinity 1 Bought Multi- Media Earned Owned
  • 12. Our future has two media trinities Trinity 2 Interactive Marketing Orientation Mobile Social
  • 13. The Future Multi-media Game Play 2009 Personal 2014 Communication Social Media Mobile Internet PC Internet Low Reach High Reach Analogue TV Magazines Digital Newspapers TV Radio Mass Communication Out of home
  • 14. What if, in the future….. Importance Ad Expenditure Main Media Social Media 2009 Time 2014
  • 15. In the future Who is king?
  • 16. Holy Grail • Measurement and recognition of multi channel performance • Data in everything to an increasingly granular level • How do we use this data to generate knowledge for our clients in terms of where and how they should INVEST ROI
  • 17. Chemistry + Culture = Collaboration
  • 19. This future which has started is about….. 1. An increasingly personalised opportunity to effectively communicate 2. Technology meets psychology 3. Media in the forefront as a Holy Trinity of bought, owned, earned or mobile, social or interactive 4. Investment patterns must and are changing 5. The Holy Grail is still knowledge of what is working best