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PREDICTING SOCIAL CULTURE.
20 FEBRUARY 2014
PREDICTING THE SOCIAL CULTURE
OF OUR FUTURE.
The Neurobiology of Social Networking.
#smwsocialculture

Stefanie Kuhnhen, Grabarz & Partner | Markus von der Lühe, AdParlor
WHAT DO YOU REALLY KNOW ABOUT A PERSON
AFTER SEEING THIS?
ENTERING A TOTALLY DIFFERENT WORLD.
BECAUSE IF YOU LOOK AT THE SP WHISPER,
YOU ENCOUNTER SOMETHING TOTALLY DIFFERENT:
WE HAVE SPLIT PERSONAS.
DISPARATE SPs ARE A MANIFESTATION
OF OUR SPLIT PERSONAS – NOT THE TRIGGER.
The Business Self
The Public Self

The Int. Business Self

The Spontaneous Self

The Secret Self

The Wise Self

The Collective Self
The Creative Self
OUR CURRENT STATUS QUO:
WE HAVE A DISINTEGRATED PRESENT.
DISINTEGRATED PARTS OF OURSELVES
ARE MANIFESTED EVERYWHERE IN OUR SOCIETY.
THERE IS A NEW NEED FOR INTEGRATION –
AND TECHNOLOGY WILL ENABLE IT.
THE GOOD NEWS:
WE ALREADY ARE IN AN ERA OF TRANSITION.
NEW SPs GAINING GROUND.
Reach of Mobile Communication Apps Q2 vs. Q4 2013

Share of Mobile Users of this App among all Smartphone/Tablet Users

Source. Global Web Index, World without China
ESPECIALLY TEENS TURN TO DIFFERENT
PLATFORMS FOR DIFFERENT NEEDS.
Top 5 Social Platforms Globally – Demographic of Active Users Q1/2013

Source: jeffbulls.com
TWITTER‘S GROWTH IS STAGNATING.
Twitter Monthly Average Users – MAU Increase Percentage (Quarter over Quarter)

Source: techcrunch.com
WHAT‘S APP SEEMS TO BE THE HOTTEST
THING SINCE GANGNAM STLYE.
WhatsApp User Count Daubles In Less than a Year
Active User Base and Daily Message Volume

Source: Whatsapp
SNAPCHAT HAS OUTRATED ALL ESTABLISHED
PHOTO SHARING SERVICES QUICKLY.
Photos Shared on Top Social Networks November 2013

Source: Bottenhall/TechCrunch
WECHAT AND LINE ARE SEEMINGLY
CONQUERING THE WORLD FROM THE EAST.
Kakao Talk, WeChat and Line Growth Chart 2010-213

Source: WeChat
WHISPER SEEMS TO SATISFY AN UNMET NEED.
AND TINDER IS REVOLUTIONISING
DATING CULTURE IN THE SAN FRANCISCO AREA.

Sources: The Guardian; marieclaire.co.uk
WE ARE IN AN ERA OF TRANSITION.
• A lot of volatility in user growth across different platforms
• New platforms emerging, others dying
• Facebook has become the „go to“ social network for older
audiences, but younger segments are again „searching“
• Mobile and proximity is becoming more important (i.e. Tinder),
because it tears down the walls between the virtual and physical
world – one possible step to true integration
LET’S PEAK INTO OUR SOCIAL FUTURE.
As we have seen, social platforms are manifestations of our brain and
psychology. If we can identify the social cognitive needs then we are
potentially able to predict what other networks are to come.
We selected a model from Australia for a number of reasons:
• It is comprehensive
• It uses the concept of social cognitive needs and Intelligence Centres
• It is based on brain science
• It can explain existing social platforms
• It gives us a glimpse of the future
THE 6 SOCIAL COGNITIVE NEEDS OF
THE HUMAN BRAIN.
THE (SIMPLIFIED) NEUROPOWER GRID.
NEED 1: TRIBAL SPIRIT – BELONGING
NEED 2: CREATIVITY – SELF EXPRESSION
WHAT DO CHOCOLATE AND
FACEBOOK HAVE IN COMMON?
Source Bloomberg welt.de
SEVEN OUT OF TEN PEOPLE CHECK FACEBOOK
BEFORE GOING TO SLEEP.
20% OF THOSE SURVEYED ADMITTED THEY'VE ACTUALLY
STOPPED HAVING SEX TO CHECK AN INCOMING TEXT.
NEED 3: ENTREPRENEURIAL SPIRIT – ACHIEVEMENT
FROM SELF-PRESENTATION TO
ACTIONABLE AND PROJECT-ORIENTED.
NEED 4: EMOTIONAL INTELLIGENCE – CONNECTION
NEED 5: PATTERN RECOGNITION – LEARNING
NEED 6: VISION – FUTURE HOPE
PLACING TODAYS SOCIAL PLATFORMS
ON THE NEUROPOWER GRID.
EVEN MORE INTERESTING: WHAT DIGITAL NATIVES
STILL MISS IN TODAY‘S SOCIAL PLATFORMS.
• SECUTIRY:
Data security and privacy are unmet need, Gen Z is aware of and yearns for
• AUTHENTICITY:
Beyond the smiley teens yearn for authentic relationships, they want to know
about all aspects of the other person they are in interaction with
• CONNECTION:
Gen Z intuitively understand that meeting up virtually is not the real thing, they
have an urge to find a bridge between online connections and the offline world
IF WE PUT OUR ENTREPRENEUR’S HAT ON,
HERE IS WHAT’S STILL TO COME.
A platform facilitating a true 1-to-1 connection based on authenticity
REAL ME

A platform which will give you a new security and privacy guarantee
NEST

A platform which links people with a similar mindset to find comfort
TRIBE

SEAMLESS

VISIONX

A platform which helps to better link online and offline
A platform of likeminded that visualize the future
LET’S THINK BIG(GER) NOW.

FROM SOCIAL PLATFORM TO SOCIAL CULTURE:
A NARRATIVE IN 5 ACTS OF OUR FUTURE.
UNCERTAINTY

INDULGENCE

FOCUS ON ME, MYSELF AND I.
2000s

A FEELING OF INVULNERABILITY.
1990s
Source: meyersound.com

Source: dieselsc.com

End of Cold War Mandela Free

Internet Revolution

AUTHENTICITY

BACK TO THE (HUMAN) ROOTS.
2010s
Source: kampagnen.fischersarchiv.de

iPad

Fuku- Car
Pope
shima Sharing Franz.

Google
Glass

.Com Crisis

9/11

Euro Intro

iPhone Financial-, Eco-, Econ-Crises

INTEGRATION

INTEGRATED OPPOSITES ARE THE NORM.
2020s
1. INTELLIGENT CONSULTANTS WILL BE
THE NEW ENERGY GRID.

Source: gdeluxe.com

Source google.com/glass

Until 2025 we‘ll develop intelligent, technical consultants, whom we‘ll – and that‘s new –
trust more and more. They‘ll extend us and integrate man and machine.
ENERGY GRID MEANS:
WE WON’T WANT TO LIVE WITHOUT ANYMORE.
Source: http://vimeo.com/12565020

A FUTURE MORNING ROUTINE WITH PETER.
2. SOCIAL PLATFORMS WILL BE SMARTLY
CURATED INTO OUR LIVES.
Source: http://www.digitaltrends.com/home/imirror-looks-like-looking-glass-acts-like-touchscreen/

In 2025 social platforms will function as seamless operating systems in the background.
We won‘t have to actively navigate them anymore.
3. EVERYBODY WILL BE AN ENTREPRENEUR.

Source: Inc. Magazine

In 2025, talents will become entrepreneurs and project workers. New job profiles will emerge,
which will require integrated skill sets consisting of general and specialist knowledge.
SUCCESS IS AUTONOMY,
NOT NAPOLEONIC DOMINATION.
4. THE INTERNET WILL DEVELOP
ITS OWN CONSCIOUSNESS.

http://www.intel.de/content/www/de/de/embedded/intelligent-systems-overview.html

In 2025, the internet will integrate all accessable information and will operate
as a central control system enabling higher level decision-making and choices.
„I GOT A JOB FOR YOU!“
SOUNDS LIKE BREEDING GROUNDS FOR
GEORGE ORWELL‘S „SURVEILLANCE SOCIETY“?
5. A NEW ETHICS IS EMERGING, WHICH WILL
UNDERPIN A BRIGHT DIGITAL FUTURE.
A (DIFFERENT) DAY AT SCHOOL
WITH THOMMY.
THIS NEW INTEGRATED SOCIAL CULTURE
WON‘T APPEAR ON ITS OWN.
WE HAVE TO FOSTER IT,
LIVE IT, WORK IT AND PARENT IT
EVERY SINGLE DAY.
MANY THANKS. #SMWSOCIALCULTURE
STEFANIE.KUHNHEN@GRABARZUNDPARTNER.DE
MVDLUEHE@ADKNOWLEDGE.COM
IMPRINT.
The contents of this presentation are the intellectual property of Grabarz & Partner
Werbeagentur GmbH and are subject to the currently valid copyright laws.
No part of this presentation may be used, or reproduced in any means, or
transmitted to a third party, without the prior consent of Grabarz & Partner
Werbeagentur GmbH.

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PREDICTING THE SOCIAL CULTURE OF OUR FUTURE - THE NEUROBIOLOGY OF SOCIAL PLATFORMS

  • 2. PREDICTING THE SOCIAL CULTURE OF OUR FUTURE. The Neurobiology of Social Networking. #smwsocialculture Stefanie Kuhnhen, Grabarz & Partner | Markus von der Lühe, AdParlor
  • 3. WHAT DO YOU REALLY KNOW ABOUT A PERSON AFTER SEEING THIS?
  • 4. ENTERING A TOTALLY DIFFERENT WORLD.
  • 5. BECAUSE IF YOU LOOK AT THE SP WHISPER, YOU ENCOUNTER SOMETHING TOTALLY DIFFERENT:
  • 6.
  • 7.
  • 8.
  • 9.
  • 10. WE HAVE SPLIT PERSONAS.
  • 11. DISPARATE SPs ARE A MANIFESTATION OF OUR SPLIT PERSONAS – NOT THE TRIGGER. The Business Self The Public Self The Int. Business Self The Spontaneous Self The Secret Self The Wise Self The Collective Self The Creative Self
  • 12. OUR CURRENT STATUS QUO: WE HAVE A DISINTEGRATED PRESENT.
  • 13. DISINTEGRATED PARTS OF OURSELVES ARE MANIFESTED EVERYWHERE IN OUR SOCIETY.
  • 14. THERE IS A NEW NEED FOR INTEGRATION – AND TECHNOLOGY WILL ENABLE IT.
  • 15. THE GOOD NEWS: WE ALREADY ARE IN AN ERA OF TRANSITION.
  • 16. NEW SPs GAINING GROUND. Reach of Mobile Communication Apps Q2 vs. Q4 2013 Share of Mobile Users of this App among all Smartphone/Tablet Users Source. Global Web Index, World without China
  • 17. ESPECIALLY TEENS TURN TO DIFFERENT PLATFORMS FOR DIFFERENT NEEDS. Top 5 Social Platforms Globally – Demographic of Active Users Q1/2013 Source: jeffbulls.com
  • 18. TWITTER‘S GROWTH IS STAGNATING. Twitter Monthly Average Users – MAU Increase Percentage (Quarter over Quarter) Source: techcrunch.com
  • 19. WHAT‘S APP SEEMS TO BE THE HOTTEST THING SINCE GANGNAM STLYE. WhatsApp User Count Daubles In Less than a Year Active User Base and Daily Message Volume Source: Whatsapp
  • 20. SNAPCHAT HAS OUTRATED ALL ESTABLISHED PHOTO SHARING SERVICES QUICKLY. Photos Shared on Top Social Networks November 2013 Source: Bottenhall/TechCrunch
  • 21. WECHAT AND LINE ARE SEEMINGLY CONQUERING THE WORLD FROM THE EAST. Kakao Talk, WeChat and Line Growth Chart 2010-213 Source: WeChat
  • 22. WHISPER SEEMS TO SATISFY AN UNMET NEED.
  • 23. AND TINDER IS REVOLUTIONISING DATING CULTURE IN THE SAN FRANCISCO AREA. Sources: The Guardian; marieclaire.co.uk
  • 24. WE ARE IN AN ERA OF TRANSITION. • A lot of volatility in user growth across different platforms • New platforms emerging, others dying • Facebook has become the „go to“ social network for older audiences, but younger segments are again „searching“ • Mobile and proximity is becoming more important (i.e. Tinder), because it tears down the walls between the virtual and physical world – one possible step to true integration
  • 25. LET’S PEAK INTO OUR SOCIAL FUTURE. As we have seen, social platforms are manifestations of our brain and psychology. If we can identify the social cognitive needs then we are potentially able to predict what other networks are to come. We selected a model from Australia for a number of reasons: • It is comprehensive • It uses the concept of social cognitive needs and Intelligence Centres • It is based on brain science • It can explain existing social platforms • It gives us a glimpse of the future
  • 26. THE 6 SOCIAL COGNITIVE NEEDS OF THE HUMAN BRAIN.
  • 28. NEED 1: TRIBAL SPIRIT – BELONGING
  • 29.
  • 30. NEED 2: CREATIVITY – SELF EXPRESSION
  • 31. WHAT DO CHOCOLATE AND FACEBOOK HAVE IN COMMON? Source Bloomberg welt.de
  • 32. SEVEN OUT OF TEN PEOPLE CHECK FACEBOOK BEFORE GOING TO SLEEP.
  • 33. 20% OF THOSE SURVEYED ADMITTED THEY'VE ACTUALLY STOPPED HAVING SEX TO CHECK AN INCOMING TEXT.
  • 34. NEED 3: ENTREPRENEURIAL SPIRIT – ACHIEVEMENT
  • 35. FROM SELF-PRESENTATION TO ACTIONABLE AND PROJECT-ORIENTED.
  • 36. NEED 4: EMOTIONAL INTELLIGENCE – CONNECTION
  • 37. NEED 5: PATTERN RECOGNITION – LEARNING
  • 38. NEED 6: VISION – FUTURE HOPE
  • 39. PLACING TODAYS SOCIAL PLATFORMS ON THE NEUROPOWER GRID.
  • 40. EVEN MORE INTERESTING: WHAT DIGITAL NATIVES STILL MISS IN TODAY‘S SOCIAL PLATFORMS. • SECUTIRY: Data security and privacy are unmet need, Gen Z is aware of and yearns for • AUTHENTICITY: Beyond the smiley teens yearn for authentic relationships, they want to know about all aspects of the other person they are in interaction with • CONNECTION: Gen Z intuitively understand that meeting up virtually is not the real thing, they have an urge to find a bridge between online connections and the offline world
  • 41. IF WE PUT OUR ENTREPRENEUR’S HAT ON, HERE IS WHAT’S STILL TO COME. A platform facilitating a true 1-to-1 connection based on authenticity REAL ME A platform which will give you a new security and privacy guarantee NEST A platform which links people with a similar mindset to find comfort TRIBE SEAMLESS VISIONX A platform which helps to better link online and offline A platform of likeminded that visualize the future
  • 42. LET’S THINK BIG(GER) NOW. FROM SOCIAL PLATFORM TO SOCIAL CULTURE: A NARRATIVE IN 5 ACTS OF OUR FUTURE.
  • 43. UNCERTAINTY INDULGENCE FOCUS ON ME, MYSELF AND I. 2000s A FEELING OF INVULNERABILITY. 1990s Source: meyersound.com Source: dieselsc.com End of Cold War Mandela Free Internet Revolution AUTHENTICITY BACK TO THE (HUMAN) ROOTS. 2010s Source: kampagnen.fischersarchiv.de iPad Fuku- Car Pope shima Sharing Franz. Google Glass .Com Crisis 9/11 Euro Intro iPhone Financial-, Eco-, Econ-Crises INTEGRATION INTEGRATED OPPOSITES ARE THE NORM. 2020s
  • 44. 1. INTELLIGENT CONSULTANTS WILL BE THE NEW ENERGY GRID. Source: gdeluxe.com Source google.com/glass Until 2025 we‘ll develop intelligent, technical consultants, whom we‘ll – and that‘s new – trust more and more. They‘ll extend us and integrate man and machine.
  • 45. ENERGY GRID MEANS: WE WON’T WANT TO LIVE WITHOUT ANYMORE.
  • 46. Source: http://vimeo.com/12565020 A FUTURE MORNING ROUTINE WITH PETER.
  • 47. 2. SOCIAL PLATFORMS WILL BE SMARTLY CURATED INTO OUR LIVES. Source: http://www.digitaltrends.com/home/imirror-looks-like-looking-glass-acts-like-touchscreen/ In 2025 social platforms will function as seamless operating systems in the background. We won‘t have to actively navigate them anymore.
  • 48. 3. EVERYBODY WILL BE AN ENTREPRENEUR. Source: Inc. Magazine In 2025, talents will become entrepreneurs and project workers. New job profiles will emerge, which will require integrated skill sets consisting of general and specialist knowledge.
  • 49. SUCCESS IS AUTONOMY, NOT NAPOLEONIC DOMINATION.
  • 50. 4. THE INTERNET WILL DEVELOP ITS OWN CONSCIOUSNESS. http://www.intel.de/content/www/de/de/embedded/intelligent-systems-overview.html In 2025, the internet will integrate all accessable information and will operate as a central control system enabling higher level decision-making and choices.
  • 51. „I GOT A JOB FOR YOU!“
  • 52. SOUNDS LIKE BREEDING GROUNDS FOR GEORGE ORWELL‘S „SURVEILLANCE SOCIETY“?
  • 53. 5. A NEW ETHICS IS EMERGING, WHICH WILL UNDERPIN A BRIGHT DIGITAL FUTURE.
  • 54. A (DIFFERENT) DAY AT SCHOOL WITH THOMMY.
  • 55. THIS NEW INTEGRATED SOCIAL CULTURE WON‘T APPEAR ON ITS OWN.
  • 56. WE HAVE TO FOSTER IT, LIVE IT, WORK IT AND PARENT IT EVERY SINGLE DAY.
  • 58. IMPRINT. The contents of this presentation are the intellectual property of Grabarz & Partner Werbeagentur GmbH and are subject to the currently valid copyright laws. No part of this presentation may be used, or reproduced in any means, or transmitted to a third party, without the prior consent of Grabarz & Partner Werbeagentur GmbH.