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Agile periodization


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Couple of weeks ago, in May, 2017, I gave a guest lecture at Faculty of Kinesiology at Zagreb University in Croatia, thanks to the invitation by Cvita Gregov. The topic of my talk was Agile Periodization, a framework that I have been developing over the past few years. Since I already had the slides ready, I slightly modified them and decided to record the whole thing in English -

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Agile periodization

  1. 1. Agile Periodization Decision making under Uncertainty Mladen Jovanović
  2. 2. ...So it might come as a surprise that this is not what modern computers are actually doing when they face a difficult problem. Straightforward arithmetic, of course, isn’t particularly challenging for a modern computer. Rather, it’s tasks like conversing with people, fixing a corrupted file, or winning a game of Go—problems where the rules aren’t clear, some of the required information is missing, or finding exactly the right answer would require considering an astronomical number of possibilities—that now pose the biggest challenges in computer science. And the algorithms that researchers have developed to solve the hardest classes of problems have moved computers away from an extreme reliance on exhaustive calculation. Instead, tackling real-world tasks requires being comfortable with chance, trading off time with accuracy, and using approximations. ...Even where perfect algorithms haven’t been found, however, the battle between generations of computer scientists and the most intractable real- world problems has yielded a series of insights. These hard-won precepts are at odds with our intuitions about rationality, and they don’t sound anything like the narrow prescriptions of a mathematician trying to force the world into clean, formal lines. They say: Don’t always consider all your options. Don’t necessarily go for the outcome that seems best every time. Make a mess on occasion. Travel light. Let things wait. Trust your instincts and don’t think too long. Relax. Toss a coin. Forgive, but don’t forget. To thine own self be true.
  3. 3. Planning?
  4. 4. Planning?
  5. 5. Planning?
  6. 6. Planning?
  7. 7. • Hierarchy • Goal/Method • Predictability • Waterfall • Top-down WUT?!?!
  8. 8. Hierarchy
  9. 9. Hierarchy
  10. 10. Hierarchy
  11. 11. Hierarchy
  12. 12. Hierarchy
  13. 13. Hierarchy Biomotor abilities Technical skills
  14. 14. Hierarchy
  15. 15. Goal/Method
  16. 16. Goal/Method
  17. 17. Goal/Method
  18. 18. Goal/Method
  19. 19. Goal/Method
  20. 20. Goal/Method
  21. 21. Predictability
  22. 22. Predictability
  23. 23. Predictability
  24. 24. Predictability
  25. 25. Waterfall
  26. 26. Waterfall
  27. 27. Waterfall
  28. 28. Top-Down
  29. 29. Top-Down
  30. 30. Top-Down
  31. 31. Agile approach
  32. 32. • Iterative planning • MVP • Barbell Strategy • Embedded testing • Transparency • Randomize • Heuristics
  33. 33. Iterativeplanning
  34. 34. Iterativeplanning
  35. 35. Iterativeplanning
  36. 36. Iterativeplanning
  37. 37. Iterativeplanning
  38. 38. Iterativeplanning
  39. 39. MVP
  40. 40. MVP
  41. 41. MVP
  42. 42. Heuristics Physical potential (MAS, V02max...) Game performance
  43. 43. Heuristics • 1/N heuristic • Micro-loading • If important do it every day • First things first • Barbell strategy Reduce N • Alternate/Randomize • Read Dan John
  44. 44. Barbellstrategy Mixed- Parallel Uni- directi onal
  45. 45. Barbellstrategy
  46. 46. Barbellstrategy
  47. 47. Embeddedtesting
  48. 48. Transparency
  49. 49. Transparency
  50. 50. Randomize For most of Western history, chance has been a villain. In classic Roman civilization, chance was personified by Fortuna, goddess of cruel fate, with her spinning wheel of luck. Opposed to her sat Minerva, goddess of wisdom and understanding. Only the desperate would pray to Fortuna, while everyone implored Minerva for aid. Certainly science was the domain of Minerva, a realm with no useful role for Fortuna to play. But by the beginning of the 20th century, the opposition between Fortuna and Minerva had changed to a collaboration. Scientists, servants of Minerva, began publishing books of random numbers, instruments of chance to be used for learning about the world. Now, chance and wisdom share a cooperative relationship, and few of us are any longer bewildered by the notion that an understanding of chance could help us acquire wisdom. Everything from weather forecasting to finance to evolutionary biology is dominated by the study of stochastic processes
  51. 51. Randomize Chapter 10 showed, with the illustration of Buridan’s donkey, that randomness is not always unwelcome. This discussion aims to show how some degree on unpredictability (or lack of knowledge) can be beneficial to our defective species. A slightly random schedule prevents us from optimizing and being exceedingly efficient, particularly in the wrong things. This little bit of uncertainty might make the dinner relax and forget the time pressures. He would be forced to act as a satisficer instead of maximizer (Chapter 11 discussed Simon’s satisficing as a blend of satisfying and maximizing) – research on happiness shows that those who live under the self-imposed pressure to be optimal in their enjoyment of things suffer a measure of distress
  52. 52. Randomize
  53. 53. Randomize
  54. 54. Randomize