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Maree Conway 2009 Environmental Scanning … what it is and how to do it
<ul><li>Framework </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Current Planning Approaches </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Strategic Thinking from a F...
Strategy = making decisions in an uncertain context
Making strategic decisions in an uncertain context? <ul><li>Focus </li></ul><ul><li>Be aware of worldviews </li></ul><ul><...
A holistic approach Interior Exterior Collective Individual Staff and stakeholder views Organisational Culture Observed   ...
The Broad Process
Scanning helps to understand the context of your preferred future – where you want to go.
Current Planning Approaches
<ul><li>Develop a single ‘default scenario’ – a linear extrapolation of today. </li></ul>Single outcome
<ul><li>Often lack the flexibility to deal with unexpected changes in the external environment. </li></ul>
<ul><li>Usually do not include any processes for systematically exploring possible futures for your organisation. </li></ul>
<ul><li>Tend to rely heavily on quantitative data, suggesting a single outcome, and dismiss validity of qualitative data. ...
<ul><li>Miss potential innovation and strategic options because they don’t challenge organisational assumptions and ideolo...
And, usually don’t include any systematic processes for listening to the views of staff,  before  a plan is written.
<ul><li>While the need for planning has never been greater, the relevance of most of today’s planning systems and tools is...
<ul><li>It may well be that the typical strategic planning exercise now conducted on a regular and formal basis and infuse...
<ul><li>A major assumption of the strategic planning literature … is that all of these terms [strategy, planning] necessar...
 
Strategic Thinking from a Futures Perspective
Strategic Thinking Generating Options What might happen? Strategic Decision Making Making choices What will we do? Strateg...
Strategic Thinking Generating Options What might happen? Strategic Decision Making Making choices What will we do? Strateg...
Conventional Business Thinking Futures Thinking Immediate term Depth of vision Own business focus Cross-disciplinary Atten...
<ul><li>Strategic thinking is identifying, thinking about and understanding possible and plausible future operating enviro...
<ul><li>… so you can use that knowledge to expand your thinking about your potential options, </li></ul>
<ul><li>… to position your organisation effectively in the external environment, </li></ul>
<ul><li>… in order to make better informed decisions about action to take today. </li></ul>
<ul><li>We can't solve problems by using the same kind of thinking we used when we created them. </li></ul>
We start here… <ul><li>Long term </li></ul><ul><li>Uncertain </li></ul><ul><li>Divergent </li></ul><ul><li>Incomplete  </l...
We end up here. <ul><li>Short term </li></ul><ul><li>Logical </li></ul><ul><li>Convergent </li></ul><ul><li>Pragmatic </li...
Environmental Scanning
ES is the art of systematically exploring and interpreting the external environment to better understand the nature of tre...
Long-term TIME HORIZON Short-term <ul><li>Narrow SCOPE OF INFORMATION GATHERING Broad </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Adapted from C...
Types of Futures Time Today Futures Cone developed by Clem Bezold Possible Plausible Probable Preferable Scenario “ Wildca...
Where to Focus ES Time Today (Trends) ( Deep Drivers) Plausible Probable
<ul><li>How robust do we want our planning inputs to be? </li></ul><ul><li>Bigger   – how wide are we looking? </li></ul><...
<ul><li>Big  – do we understand how we connect and interact with other organisations and the external environment? </li></ul>
<ul><li>Deep  – how deeply are we questioning our ways of operating? </li></ul><ul><li>Do we operate from our interpretati...
<ul><li>Long  – how far into the future are we looking? Do we understand the shape of alternative futures for our organisa...
Whatever takes you away from conventional thinking… Trends Emerging Issues The weird and unimaginable
<ul><li>Beyond the short-term </li></ul><ul><li>Beyond busy </li></ul><ul><li>“ We want to be proactive…” </li></ul><ul><l...
<ul><li>Unless you scan, you  WILL  always be reacting/in crisis management/putting out bushfires. </li></ul>
<ul><li>The aim of scanning work is to provide robust information (trends and emerging issues) to enable you to build a lo...
Doing ES: Focus
<ul><li>But, lots of information out there, so how to focus effort? </li></ul>Focusing your Scanning
<ul><li>You can just scan (undirected), but a poor use of resources in a strategy project. </li></ul><ul><li>An anchor or ...
<ul><li>What is the key strategic issue? </li></ul><ul><ul><li>This is the framing question. </li></ul></ul><ul><li>What d...
The Scanning Process
The External Environment Adapted from K. van der Heijden Education  Environment Social Environment Suppliers Clients Compe...
Organisation Industry Learning Educational Gaming Funding Engagement Online Sustainability Vocational Imperative The Exter...
Organisation Global Industry Technology Lifestyle Values Politics Economy Environment Demographics & generational change L...
Organisation Global Industry Technology Lifestyle Values Politics Economy Environment Demographics   & generational change...
Event Trend ( grouping of events) Driver ( moves trends in certain directions, broad in scope and long term in nature)
Event Trend ( grouping of events) Driver ( moves trends in certain directions, broad in scope and long term in nature) Whe...
 
Event Trend ( grouping of events) Driver ( moves trends in certain directions, broad in scope and long term in nature) Gra...
But it might still feel like this – a bit of a maze to try and work your way through…
Event Trend ( grouping of events) Driver ( moves trends in certain directions, broad in scope and long term in nature) And...
And this is where the connections between the trends will surface and it will make sense.
Trends And Emerging Issues Emerging   Issues Trends Mainstream Time Number of cases; degree of public awareness Few cases,...
Trends And Emerging Issues Emerging   Issues Trends Mainstream Time Number of cases; degree of public awareness Scientists...
Trends And Emerging Issues Emerging   Issues Trends Mainstream Time Number of cases; degree of public awareness Scientists...
Trends And Emerging Issues Emerging   Issues Trends Mainstream Time Number of cases; degree of public awareness Scientists...
Today Future TIME UNCERTAINTY Linear Future Low High The linear future is the one we believe to be true, usually based on ...
Today Future TIME UNCERTAINTY Linear Future Low High Possible Futures Usual Planning Timeframe (3-5 years) Trend
Today Future TIME UNCERTAINTY Linear Future Low High Possible Futures Usual Planning Timeframe (3-5 years) Trend But…don’t...
<ul><li>Trends don’t tell you anything – someone has to interpret the trend for it to be meaningful. </li></ul><ul><li>Oth...
<ul><li>Extrapolations of the past and present,  not  future facts </li></ul><ul><li>Uncertain future trajectories </li></...
<ul><li>Trends are approaching mainstream – nothing new. </li></ul><ul><li>Emerging Issues is about what’s at the horizon,...
<ul><li>Starts with a shift in values/perspectives –  need to search at the fringes </li></ul><ul><li>Emergence – people s...
<ul><li>Because emerging issues are weak, obscure, crazy, and fragile, good practical people usually ignore or ridicule th...
<ul><li>Particularly useful for challenging long held assumptions about how things will be. </li></ul><ul><li>Good for ‘wh...
Where to Look
<ul><li>If you’re looking for new ideas that don’t yet exist, don’t talk to normal people because they’re just consuming w...
<ul><li>Newspapers, websites, blogs, wikis, podcasts, videos, news sites, newsletter, magazines, books, book reviews, pres...
<ul><li>Trendwatching </li></ul><ul><li>Future Scanner </li></ul><ul><li>Brain Reserve </li></ul><ul><li>Shaping Tomorrow ...
<ul><li>Identify opinion leaders, the voice in the wilderness on the fringe: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Expert </li></ul></ul><...
<ul><li>Don’t dismiss the outliers… </li></ul>
<ul><li>New </li></ul><ul><li>First </li></ul><ul><li>Idea </li></ul><ul><li>Change </li></ul><ul><li>Surprise </li></ul><...
<ul><li>Ideally, a scan hit identifies an emerging issue that is objectively new even to experts, confirms or is confirmed...
Some Examples
The impact of global trends...
THE GLOBAL BRAIN A truly global explosion of talent
...the rise of pervasive computing and increasing connectedness
The potential impact of the metaverse… where virtual and physical come together
<ul><li>Quantum computers will arrive by 2021. </li></ul><ul><li>Biometric security by 2010. </li></ul><ul><li>Challenge o...
...student choice and time, place and pace of learning
ONLINE OXYGEN Online access for the masses
ONLINE OXYGEN Training 10 million teachers
 
Photo: http://www.cyberpunkreview.com
Circa 1960 Filtering the right information from the exploding knowledge base will become critical
Changing demographics affecting rich and poor, east and west differently...
Understanding generational differences...
Environmental shifts...
<ul><ul><li>Association for the Study of Peak Oil (www.peakoil.org): note that the US, Russian and European oil supplies h...
The way we do business is changing.
Ethics and underpinning values are at risk...
...while the power of community grows
REALLY REAL Democratisation of protests  and e-activism
SNACK CULTURE Deconstructing products - smaller, faster, cheaper
When is a hit useful?
<ul><li>How will I separate signals of real change from the noise? </li></ul>When is a ‘hit’ useful?
<ul><li>Explore what is happening today. </li></ul><ul><li>What are other people saying about its evolution over time? </l...
<ul><li>Use the ‘three times on the radar’ test </li></ul><ul><li>Are there lots of high quality links about it? </li></ul...
<ul><li>Does the hit aim to identify and assess possible future threats and opportunities, including radical alternatives?...
<ul><li>Ultimately, you need to trust your intuition – your expertise, knowledge and insight is your best gauge. </li></ul...
Classifying Hits
How to Classify Hits? Social Technological Economic Environmental Political STEEP or add in Values  to make it VERY STEEP*...
Recording and Sharing Hits
<ul><li>Title </li></ul><ul><li>Summary </li></ul><ul><li>Source and date published </li></ul><ul><li>Initial assessment o...
<ul><li>For example (taken from SCAN, a publication by  SRI Business Intelligence ): </li></ul><ul><li>  </li></ul><ul><li...
Characteristics of  a good scanner…
Open mind…
Curious…
Systems thinker…
Welcomes diversity…
Thinks outside the box…
Thinks outrageously at times…
Challenge my assumption…
Aware of own worldview
<ul><li>What might seem real to you probably won’t seem as real to the next person. </li></ul><ul><li>How you filter infor...
<ul><li>Need to challenge your filters so that you don’t miss anything that might be important. </li></ul><ul><li>Understa...
 
<ul><li>What are the major driving forces? </li></ul><ul><li>What big surprises are on the horizon? </li></ul><ul><li>What...
<ul><li>If you think …‘that’s rubbish’,  stop . </li></ul><ul><li>First , ask why do I think it’s rubbish? </li></ul><ul><...
As you scan… If you see it three or more times in your scanning, your first reaction was probably wrong! If you don’t see ...
Challenges You Might Face
Challenges: Info Overload
Challenges:  Stretching Your Thinking
Challenges: Finding the Time
<ul><li>Individual Scanning </li></ul><ul><li>Unconscious </li></ul><ul><li>Implicit </li></ul><ul><li>solitary </li></ul>...
We do scanning to avoid having a perspective like this…
Have fun!
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Environmental Scanning: what it is and how to do it

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An overview of the environmental scanning process for strategy development projects.

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Environmental Scanning: what it is and how to do it

  1. 1. Maree Conway 2009 Environmental Scanning … what it is and how to do it
  2. 2. <ul><li>Framework </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Current Planning Approaches </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Strategic Thinking from a Futures Perspective </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Environmental Scanning </li></ul><ul><li>Challenges You Might Face </li></ul>Overview
  3. 3. Strategy = making decisions in an uncertain context
  4. 4. Making strategic decisions in an uncertain context? <ul><li>Focus </li></ul><ul><li>Be aware of worldviews </li></ul><ul><li>Involve many </li></ul><ul><li>Scan, analyse, interpret </li></ul><ul><li>Think and imagine </li></ul><ul><li>Ensure relevance and plausibility </li></ul><ul><li>Test, question, challenge </li></ul><ul><li>Decide, implement and monitor </li></ul>
  5. 5. A holistic approach Interior Exterior Collective Individual Staff and stakeholder views Organisational Culture Observed Behaviour The collective external world Intentional “I” Behavioural “It” Cultural “We” Social “Its” Ken Wilber
  6. 6. The Broad Process
  7. 7. Scanning helps to understand the context of your preferred future – where you want to go.
  8. 8. Current Planning Approaches
  9. 9. <ul><li>Develop a single ‘default scenario’ – a linear extrapolation of today. </li></ul>Single outcome
  10. 10. <ul><li>Often lack the flexibility to deal with unexpected changes in the external environment. </li></ul>
  11. 11. <ul><li>Usually do not include any processes for systematically exploring possible futures for your organisation. </li></ul>
  12. 12. <ul><li>Tend to rely heavily on quantitative data, suggesting a single outcome, and dismiss validity of qualitative data. </li></ul>
  13. 13. <ul><li>Miss potential innovation and strategic options because they don’t challenge organisational assumptions and ideologies . </li></ul>
  14. 14. And, usually don’t include any systematic processes for listening to the views of staff, before a plan is written.
  15. 15. <ul><li>While the need for planning has never been greater, the relevance of most of today’s planning systems and tools is increasingly marginal (Fuller, 2003). </li></ul>Future
  16. 16. <ul><li>It may well be that the typical strategic planning exercise now conducted on a regular and formal basis and infused with quantitative data misses the essence of the concept of strategy and what is involved in thinking strategically (Sidorowicz, 2000). </li></ul>Data
  17. 17. <ul><li>A major assumption of the strategic planning literature … is that all of these terms [strategy, planning] necessarily go together. [That is] Strategy formation is a planning process, designed or supported by planners, to plan in order to produce plans” (Mintzberg, 1994). </li></ul>Clarity
  18. 19. Strategic Thinking from a Futures Perspective
  19. 20. Strategic Thinking Generating Options What might happen? Strategic Decision Making Making choices What will we do? Strategic Planning Taking Action How will we do it? Options Decisions Actions
  20. 21. Strategic Thinking Generating Options What might happen? Strategic Decision Making Making choices What will we do? Strategic Planning Taking Action How will we do it? Options Decisions Actions Futures Approaches and Methods
  21. 22. Conventional Business Thinking Futures Thinking Immediate term Depth of vision Own business focus Cross-disciplinary Attention to detail Broad vision Techno-economic trends focus Trends and emerging issues Problem approach Systems approach Less attention to connections Interactions and cross-impact Continuity assumption Wild cards and discontinuities Bottom line focus Strategic focus Undiscussables Speak the unspeakable Short term focus Long term orientation A single future Alternative futures Mainstream thinking Mind changers Past and present dominate decision making Future dominates decision making
  22. 23. <ul><li>Strategic thinking is identifying, thinking about and understanding possible and plausible future operating environments for your organisation… </li></ul>
  23. 24. <ul><li>… so you can use that knowledge to expand your thinking about your potential options, </li></ul>
  24. 25. <ul><li>… to position your organisation effectively in the external environment, </li></ul>
  25. 26. <ul><li>… in order to make better informed decisions about action to take today. </li></ul>
  26. 27. <ul><li>We can't solve problems by using the same kind of thinking we used when we created them. </li></ul>
  27. 28. We start here… <ul><li>Long term </li></ul><ul><li>Uncertain </li></ul><ul><li>Divergent </li></ul><ul><li>Incomplete </li></ul><ul><li>Beyond linear </li></ul><ul><li>Disrupting alignment </li></ul>
  28. 29. We end up here. <ul><li>Short term </li></ul><ul><li>Logical </li></ul><ul><li>Convergent </li></ul><ul><li>Pragmatic </li></ul><ul><li>Deductive </li></ul><ul><li>Creating Alignment </li></ul>
  29. 30. Environmental Scanning
  30. 31. ES is the art of systematically exploring and interpreting the external environment to better understand the nature of trends and drivers of change and their likely future impact on your organisation.
  31. 32. Long-term TIME HORIZON Short-term <ul><li>Narrow SCOPE OF INFORMATION GATHERING Broad </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Adapted from Choo, Information Management for the Intelligent Organization, 1998 </li></ul></ul>Where environmental scanning fits… Competitor Intelligence understanding the nature of our competitors and their likely responses to change Competitive Intelligence understanding how our competitors interact with the business and market environment in which they operate Business Intelligence understanding the present and future environments with a focus on future competitive environments Environmental Scanning developing a broad understanding of the external environment Social Intelligence understanding how a country uses its intelligence (knowledge industry and information networks) to meet its developmental challenges Future View building a long-term foresight view about the future of the country and the planet
  32. 33. Types of Futures Time Today Futures Cone developed by Clem Bezold Possible Plausible Probable Preferable Scenario “ Wildcard”
  33. 34. Where to Focus ES Time Today (Trends) ( Deep Drivers) Plausible Probable
  34. 35. <ul><li>How robust do we want our planning inputs to be? </li></ul><ul><li>Bigger – how wide are we looking? </li></ul><ul><li>Deeper – are seriously are we questioning? </li></ul><ul><li>Longer – how far ahead are we looking? </li></ul>Why do it this way?
  35. 36. <ul><li>Big – do we understand how we connect and interact with other organisations and the external environment? </li></ul>
  36. 37. <ul><li>Deep – how deeply are we questioning our ways of operating? </li></ul><ul><li>Do we operate from our interpretation of the past, or our anticipation of the future? </li></ul><ul><li>Are our assumptions today valid into the future? </li></ul>
  37. 38. <ul><li>Long – how far into the future are we looking? Do we understand the shape of alternative futures for our organisation? </li></ul>
  38. 39. Whatever takes you away from conventional thinking… Trends Emerging Issues The weird and unimaginable
  39. 40. <ul><li>Beyond the short-term </li></ul><ul><li>Beyond busy </li></ul><ul><li>“ We want to be proactive…” </li></ul><ul><li>But how can you be proactive if you have little idea about what’s coming? </li></ul>Why do it this way?
  40. 41. <ul><li>Unless you scan, you WILL always be reacting/in crisis management/putting out bushfires. </li></ul>
  41. 42. <ul><li>The aim of scanning work is to provide robust information (trends and emerging issues) to enable you to build a long term context for your strategic planning today. </li></ul>Aim of ES
  42. 43. Doing ES: Focus
  43. 44. <ul><li>But, lots of information out there, so how to focus effort? </li></ul>Focusing your Scanning
  44. 45. <ul><li>You can just scan (undirected), but a poor use of resources in a strategy project. </li></ul><ul><li>An anchor or framing question directs and focuses scanning. </li></ul>The anchor
  45. 46. <ul><li>What is the key strategic issue? </li></ul><ul><ul><li>This is the framing question. </li></ul></ul><ul><li>What do we need to know about the issue? </li></ul><ul><ul><li>These are the factors that will influence the decision. </li></ul></ul><ul><li>What are trends and drivers of change affecting these factors? </li></ul><ul><ul><li>This becomes the focus for environmental scanning: </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>education specific, and </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>broad, global forces. </li></ul></ul></ul>The anchor
  46. 47. The Scanning Process
  47. 48. The External Environment Adapted from K. van der Heijden Education Environment Social Environment Suppliers Clients Competitors Educational Organisation Driving Forces Driving Forces Factors / Trends Issues / Forces Social Technological Economic Ecological Political … Students Customers Members of Wider Society
  48. 49. Organisation Industry Learning Educational Gaming Funding Engagement Online Sustainability Vocational Imperative The External Environment
  49. 50. Organisation Global Industry Technology Lifestyle Values Politics Economy Environment Demographics & generational change Learning Educational Gaming Funding Engagement Online Sustainability Vocational Imperative The External Environment Globalisation
  50. 51. Organisation Global Industry Technology Lifestyle Values Politics Economy Environment Demographics & generational change Learning Educational Gaming Funding Engagement Online Sustainability Vocational Imperative The External Environment Globalisation Wildcard Wildcard Wildcard Wildcard
  51. 52. Event Trend ( grouping of events) Driver ( moves trends in certain directions, broad in scope and long term in nature)
  52. 53. Event Trend ( grouping of events) Driver ( moves trends in certain directions, broad in scope and long term in nature) When you start scanning, you will find lots of events
  53. 55. Event Trend ( grouping of events) Driver ( moves trends in certain directions, broad in scope and long term in nature) Gradually, you will be able to group similar ‘hits’ into broader categories – trends.
  54. 56. But it might still feel like this – a bit of a maze to try and work your way through…
  55. 57. Event Trend ( grouping of events) Driver ( moves trends in certain directions, broad in scope and long term in nature) And consider: What is the counter trend? What is the wildcard? What we are really interested in exploring is what is driving these trends.
  56. 58. And this is where the connections between the trends will surface and it will make sense.
  57. 59. Trends And Emerging Issues Emerging Issues Trends Mainstream Time Number of cases; degree of public awareness Few cases, local focus Global, multiple dispersed cases, trends and megatrends Adapted from the work of Graham Molitor and Wendy Schultz, and Everett Rogers Innovators Early adopters Late Adopters Late Majority Laggards Today Time from emerging issue to mainstream varies between 18-36 years
  58. 60. Trends And Emerging Issues Emerging Issues Trends Mainstream Time Number of cases; degree of public awareness Scientists, artists, radicals, mystics Newspapers, magazines, websites, journals, blogs Government Institutions Few cases, local focus Global, multiple dispersed cases, trends and megatrends Adapted from the work of Graham Molitor and Wendy Schultz, and Everett Rogers Innovators Early adopters Late Adopters Late Majority Laggards Today Time from emerging issue to mainstream varies between 18-36 years
  59. 61. Trends And Emerging Issues Emerging Issues Trends Mainstream Time Number of cases; degree of public awareness Scientists, artists, radicals, mystics Newspapers, magazines, websites, journals, blogs Government Institutions Few cases, local focus Global, multiple dispersed cases, trends and megatrends Adapted from the work of Graham Molitor and Wendy Schultz, and Everett Rogers Innovators Early adopters Late Adopters Late Majority Laggards Today Time from emerging issue to mainstream varies between 18-36 years Most scanning takes place here
  60. 62. Trends And Emerging Issues Emerging Issues Trends Mainstream Time Number of cases; degree of public awareness Scientists, artists, radicals, mystics Newspapers, magazines, websites, journals,blogs Government Institutions Few cases, local focus Global, multiple dispersed cases, trends and megatrends Adapted from the work of Graham Molitor and Wendy Schultz, and Everett Rogers Innovators Early adopters Late Adopters Late Majority Laggards Today Time from emerging issue to mainstream varies between 18-36 years But we need to look on the fringe as well
  61. 63. Today Future TIME UNCERTAINTY Linear Future Low High The linear future is the one we believe to be true, usually based on untested assumptions Usual Planning Timeframe (3-5 years) Trend
  62. 64. Today Future TIME UNCERTAINTY Linear Future Low High Possible Futures Usual Planning Timeframe (3-5 years) Trend
  63. 65. Today Future TIME UNCERTAINTY Linear Future Low High Possible Futures Usual Planning Timeframe (3-5 years) Trend But…don’t forget the wildcard…
  64. 66. <ul><li>Trends don’t tell you anything – someone has to interpret the trend for it to be meaningful. </li></ul><ul><li>Otherwise you are engaged in trend spotting as opposed to trend analysis . </li></ul>Trends
  65. 67. <ul><li>Extrapolations of the past and present, not future facts </li></ul><ul><li>Uncertain future trajectories </li></ul><ul><li>What assumptions underpin your thinking about outcomes? </li></ul>Trends Don’t get lost in the data smog!
  66. 68. <ul><li>Trends are approaching mainstream – nothing new. </li></ul><ul><li>Emerging Issues is about what’s at the horizon, at the periphery. </li></ul><ul><li>Realm of the weird and the whacky, so difficult to present with credibility. </li></ul>Emerging Issues Analysis
  67. 69. <ul><li>Starts with a shift in values/perspectives – need to search at the fringes </li></ul><ul><li>Emergence – people start to talk about it, but a minority – easier to influence now </li></ul><ul><li>Champion – look for the thought leaders and rebels </li></ul><ul><li>Defining event – brings the issue to public attention – morphs into a trend/harder to shape and influence </li></ul>Emerging Issues Analysis
  68. 70. <ul><li>Because emerging issues are weak, obscure, crazy, and fragile, good practical people usually ignore or ridicule them. Since these “useful” ideas are not part of their commonsense, people conclude they are nonsense. </li></ul><ul><li>And this fact led me to formulate Dator’s Second Law of the Future. Namely, “Any useful idea about the future should appear to be ridiculous”. </li></ul>Emerging Issues Analysis Jim Dator, US Futurist
  69. 71. <ul><li>Particularly useful for challenging long held assumptions about how things will be. </li></ul><ul><li>Good for ‘what if’ questions. </li></ul>Emerging Issues
  70. 72. Where to Look
  71. 73. <ul><li>If you’re looking for new ideas that don’t yet exist, don’t talk to normal people because they’re just consuming what is available today – find the weirdos and see what they are doing, what they’re making on their own, and say gee – is there something I can mainstream from this? </li></ul><ul><li>Tom Kelly </li></ul><ul><li>Founder, Ideo </li></ul>
  72. 74. <ul><li>Newspapers, websites, blogs, wikis, podcasts, videos, news sites, newsletter, magazines, books, book reviews, presentations, reports, surveys, interviews, seminars, chat rooms, trend observers, advertisers, philosophers sociologists, management gurus, consultants, researchers, experts, universities. </li></ul>Where to look…
  73. 75. <ul><li>Trendwatching </li></ul><ul><li>Future Scanner </li></ul><ul><li>Brain Reserve </li></ul><ul><li>Shaping Tomorrow </li></ul><ul><li>Now and Next </li></ul><ul><li>The Tomorrow Project </li></ul><ul><li>SRIC-BI </li></ul><ul><li>Arlington Institute (wildcards) </li></ul>Some Scanning Sites
  74. 76. <ul><li>Identify opinion leaders, the voice in the wilderness on the fringe: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Expert </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Professional </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Pundit </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Amateur </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Fringe </li></ul></ul>Looking for… Shaping Tomorrow 2008
  75. 77. <ul><li>Don’t dismiss the outliers… </li></ul>
  76. 78. <ul><li>New </li></ul><ul><li>First </li></ul><ul><li>Idea </li></ul><ul><li>Change </li></ul><ul><li>Surprise </li></ul><ul><li>Opportunity </li></ul><ul><li>Threat </li></ul>Looking for… Shaping Tomorrow 2008
  77. 79. <ul><li>Ideally, a scan hit identifies an emerging issue that is objectively new even to experts, confirms or is confirmed by additional scan hits, and that has been identified in time for social dialogue, impact assessment, and policy formation. </li></ul><ul><li>Wendy Schultz, Infinite Futures 2004 </li></ul>Looking for…
  78. 80. Some Examples
  79. 81. The impact of global trends...
  80. 82. THE GLOBAL BRAIN A truly global explosion of talent
  81. 83. ...the rise of pervasive computing and increasing connectedness
  82. 84. The potential impact of the metaverse… where virtual and physical come together
  83. 85. <ul><li>Quantum computers will arrive by 2021. </li></ul><ul><li>Biometric security by 2010. </li></ul><ul><li>Challenge of protecting privacy increasing. </li></ul><ul><li>Virtual immortality is within reach. </li></ul><ul><li>Power to make things invisible may be at hand. </li></ul><ul><li>Artificial intelligence surpassing human intelligence. </li></ul><ul><li>Virtual education mainstream by 2015. </li></ul><ul><li>Human knowledge capability will continue to double every year. </li></ul><ul><li>Technology will lead to educated illiterates. </li></ul><ul><li>But…only 30% of world’s population will have access to IT services by 2016. </li></ul>World Future Society says…
  84. 86. ...student choice and time, place and pace of learning
  85. 87. ONLINE OXYGEN Online access for the masses
  86. 88. ONLINE OXYGEN Training 10 million teachers
  87. 90. Photo: http://www.cyberpunkreview.com
  88. 91. Circa 1960 Filtering the right information from the exploding knowledge base will become critical
  89. 92. Changing demographics affecting rich and poor, east and west differently...
  90. 93. Understanding generational differences...
  91. 94. Environmental shifts...
  92. 95. <ul><ul><li>Association for the Study of Peak Oil (www.peakoil.org): note that the US, Russian and European oil supplies have 'peaked' already years ago. After 2008, the global crisis kicks in. </li></ul></ul>
  93. 96. The way we do business is changing.
  94. 97. Ethics and underpinning values are at risk...
  95. 98. ...while the power of community grows
  96. 99. REALLY REAL Democratisation of protests and e-activism
  97. 100. SNACK CULTURE Deconstructing products - smaller, faster, cheaper
  98. 101. When is a hit useful?
  99. 102. <ul><li>How will I separate signals of real change from the noise? </li></ul>When is a ‘hit’ useful?
  100. 103. <ul><li>Explore what is happening today. </li></ul><ul><li>What are other people saying about its evolution over time? </li></ul><ul><li>What impact might it have on your industry today and in the future? </li></ul><ul><li>What might be the implications for your organisation? </li></ul>When is a hit useful?
  101. 104. <ul><li>Use the ‘three times on the radar’ test </li></ul><ul><li>Are there lots of high quality links about it? </li></ul><ul><li>Test the hit for relevance with your scanning team. </li></ul><ul><li>Ask someone outside your immediate work area. </li></ul>When is a ‘hit’ useful?
  102. 105. <ul><li>Does the hit aim to identify and assess possible future threats and opportunities, including radical alternatives? </li></ul><ul><li>Does the hit explore trends and their potential impacts? </li></ul><ul><li>Does the hit challenge existing assumptions underpinning current polices and practice? </li></ul>When is a ‘hit’ useful? Shaping Tomorrow
  103. 106. <ul><li>Ultimately, you need to trust your intuition – your expertise, knowledge and insight is your best gauge. </li></ul><ul><li>But, remember your blind spots! </li></ul>When is a scanning hit useful?
  104. 107. Classifying Hits
  105. 108. How to Classify Hits? Social Technological Economic Environmental Political STEEP or add in Values to make it VERY STEEP* *Marcus Barber, Looking Up, Feeling Good
  106. 109. Recording and Sharing Hits
  107. 110. <ul><li>Title </li></ul><ul><li>Summary </li></ul><ul><li>Source and date published </li></ul><ul><li>Initial assessment of implications </li></ul><ul><li>Tag/STEEP </li></ul><ul><li>See Scanning Hit Record </li></ul>What to Record
  108. 111. <ul><li>For example (taken from SCAN, a publication by SRI Business Intelligence ): </li></ul><ul><li>  </li></ul><ul><li>2009-01-03 Streaming Video and Security (Information Week Daily 26 November 2001), describes the shift of Packet Video (a developer of video streaming technology) from consumer to security applications. The company’s technology could provide live feeds from the cockpits of hijacked planes. </li></ul>
  109. 112. Characteristics of a good scanner…
  110. 113. Open mind…
  111. 114. Curious…
  112. 115. Systems thinker…
  113. 116. Welcomes diversity…
  114. 117. Thinks outside the box…
  115. 118. Thinks outrageously at times…
  116. 119. Challenge my assumption…
  117. 120. Aware of own worldview
  118. 121. <ul><li>What might seem real to you probably won’t seem as real to the next person. </li></ul><ul><li>How you filter information to create meaning is critical to understand. </li></ul>Worldview
  119. 122. <ul><li>Need to challenge your filters so that you don’t miss anything that might be important. </li></ul><ul><li>Understand your filters and those for whom you are doing the scanning. </li></ul>Worldview
  120. 124. <ul><li>What are the major driving forces? </li></ul><ul><li>What big surprises are on the horizon? </li></ul><ul><li>What are possible discontinuities (wildcards)? </li></ul>As you scan…
  121. 125. <ul><li>If you think …‘that’s rubbish’, stop . </li></ul><ul><li>First , ask why do I think it’s rubbish? </li></ul><ul><li>Second , take another look. </li></ul><ul><li>Third , ask what would enable you to accept it as possible? Scan to see if that is happening. </li></ul>As you scan…
  122. 126. As you scan… If you see it three or more times in your scanning, your first reaction was probably wrong! If you don’t see it again, you were probably right!
  123. 127. Challenges You Might Face
  124. 128. Challenges: Info Overload
  125. 129. Challenges: Stretching Your Thinking
  126. 130. Challenges: Finding the Time
  127. 131. <ul><li>Individual Scanning </li></ul><ul><li>Unconscious </li></ul><ul><li>Implicit </li></ul><ul><li>solitary </li></ul><ul><li>Environmental Scanning </li></ul><ul><li>Conscious </li></ul><ul><li>Explicit </li></ul><ul><li>Collective </li></ul>
  128. 132. We do scanning to avoid having a perspective like this…
  129. 133. Have fun!

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