FUTURE OF WIND ENERGY IN INDIA
Dr Manoj Kumar Bhambu
FUTURE OF WIND ENERGY IN INDIA
Demand for energy is bound to increase with the
increased economic development in the country.
Indian economy is reviving (7.4% in 2014) after
sluggish growth in the last three years (6.6%, 5.1%
and 6.9% for 2011, 2012 and 2013 respectively)
(The World Bank, 2015).
It is expected to grow at faster pace in the times to
come as Government of India is stressing upon
“Make in India”, “Ease of Doing Business” and
“Digital India” predominantly besides land and
It will further push the demand of electricity in
almost all the sectors i.e. household, agriculture,
commercial, institutional and industrial sector.
INDIA'S INSTALLED CAPACITY OF ELECTRICITY
IN MW AS ON 30 JUNE 2015
WHY RENEWABLE ENERGY?
The International Renewable Energy Agency (Irena)
revealed that increasing Wind and Solar power sources
to 36 percent would bring the goal of reducing
greenhouse gases significantly closer(Gifford, 2016).
As Solar and wind energy can play a vital role in
supplying clean and green energy;
Present paper tries to find out the role wind energy can
play in the generation mix of power sector in India.
It tries to estimate the total production of wind energy by
2050 in India.
FACTORS IN FAVOUR OF WIND ENERGY IN INDIA
WIND ENERGY POTENTIALS OF INDIA
The National Institute of Wind Energy, formerly the Centre of Wind
Energy Technology, recently announced that the total onshore wind
energy potential in the country is 302 GW (determined at a hub height
of 100 meters).
The fresh estimates are six-times the wind energy potential determined
at a 50 meter hub height, and three-times the potential estimated at a
hub height of 80 metres.
Of the total estimated 302 GW potential, 153 GW is available in
wasteland, 146 GW in cultivable land, and 3 GW in forest land. (Mittal,
“The new Berkeley Lab study has found the total techno-economic wind
potential to range from 2,006 GW for 80-meter hub heights (an
indication of how high the wind turbine stands above the ground) to
3,121 GW for 120-meter hub heights,” an LBL news release states.
Only 25% of potential realisation gives us an opportunity as big as
double the present total installed capacity. This shows the huge
potentials in wind energy in India.
Life-Cycle Tonnes CO2 e/GWH by Source of Electricity Generation
Technology Mean Low High
Lignite 1,054 790 1,372
Coal 888 756 1310
Oil 733 547 935
Natural Gas 499 362 891
Solar PV 85 13 731
Biomass 45 10 101
Nuclear 29 2 130
Hydroelectric 26 2 237
Wind 26 6 124
BASIC ASSUMPTION FOR ESTIMATING THE FUTURE
OF WIND ENERGY IN INDIA
Past experience shows that size and wind turbine capacity is
doubling every five years and with the increased hub heights it
may slightly slows down but keep on increasing with steady pace.
We can expect wind turbine of 20MW by 2030 and 40MW by
2040 and 60MW by 2048.
Average life-cycle for Technology is assumed to be 15 years and
gradual shift in technology is assumed.
25 years of average life of a wind turbine is assumed hence total
installed capacity is adjusted for decommissioning of old turbines.
It is assumed that number of new wind turbines installed will
expected to rise at the rate of 5% and a factor of 10% uncertainty
is increased after every five year for arriving at moderate
Wind energy has bright future and we can expect 30%
contribution of wind energy in the total generation mix of
electricity in India by 2050.
Though wind energy has its own negatives like noise and
loss of birds life yet concentrating on off-shore potentials
development and development of bladeless windmills
that are having no visibly moving parts and reduced
noise will solve these problems in coming decades.
FUTURE OF WIND POWER IN INDIA
Wind Energy Installed
Capacity in MW
Theoretical Possibility )
Wind Energy Installed Capacity
in MW (Moderate Scenario-
2020 54602 49142
2025 108835 92528
2030 221080 171100
2035 449480 308140
2040 745515 456157
2045 1026878 568702
2050 1300320 650735