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CRISIL - bet your trade 201402

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CRISIL - bet your trade 201402

  1. 1. Bet Your Trade 2014-02 commodities
  2. 2. Summary key commodities will follow major financial markets mid-term, economy & regulations long-term spread play possible but may be risky for unstable cointegration monitor energy-related instruments may be worthwhile
  3. 3. Breaking up bad, but… 1 YR 1M GOLD CRUDE MTM +9.91% +9.48% 1YR -15.40% +8.75%
  4. 4. We are in it together GOLD SILVER COPPER MTM +5.44% +7.41% -1.86% YTD +9.91% +12.24% -3.39%
  5. 5. Neglected brother Aluminum LME volume 2013 Copper 66,6M lots (20mt) 42,9M lots (25mt)
  6. 6. Co-integrated power sell spread?
  7. 7. Corn running out of gas September 2013 – European Parliament votes to cut biofuels requirements  January 2014 – legislation to free fuel of ethanol introduced in the US Congress 
  8. 8. CO2 flying high FEUA @ EEX > 7 EUR / tonne MTM ~ +40%
  9. 9. Extra: martinagale MTM -0.22% YTD -0.46%

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