Indian aviation Industry 2014


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This is a project report of Indian aviation industry which has all information of different industries like MRO, Traffic management,etc.

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Indian aviation Industry 2014

  1. 1. 0 By: - Mithilesh Trivedi Batch: - PGP/SS/13-15/T2 Subject: - Economics for Managerial Decision Making-II
  2. 2. 1 Table of Content Sr. No. Particulars Page No. I. Acknowledgement 2 II. Declaration 3 III. Executive Summary 4 IV. Introduction to Aviation Industry 6 V. Indian Aviation Industry 14 VI. Unlocking the Indian Aviation Sector 21 VII. State Government Initiative 31 VIII. The Way Forward 48 IX. Bibliography 51
  3. 3. 2 Acknowledgement I would like to thank all people who made a major contribution to our EMDM Project on Aviation Industry of India 2014. My Professors, Colleagues and associates at “Indian Institute of Planning and Management (IIPM)”. I would also like to thank the Professor of EMDM-II, for supporting us in all areas. Whenever I required help regarding this project, he helped us every time. I would also like to thank all members of 5onn group and their contribution towards project. I believe that the credit goes to all who knowingly and unknowingly have supported me during my internship period.
  4. 4. 3 DECLARATION I hereby declare that all the information has been collected, analysed and documented for the project is entirely authentic. I would also like to mention categorically that the work done here have not been purchased or acquired by any other unfair means or from any external sources. The data and information presented in this report are accurate. However, for the purpose of the project, information, already compiled in many sources has been utilized. Mithilesh Trivedi PGP/SS/13-15/T2
  5. 5. 4 The Indian civil aviation industry is on a high growth trajectory, albeit with minor hiccups. India has a vision of becoming the third largest aviation market by 2020 and is expected to be the largest by 2030. Despite facing a reduced growth rate in the past few years, the Civil Aviation Industry in India has ushered in a new era of expansion driven by factors such as Low Cost Carriers (LCC), modern airports, Foreign Direct Investments (FDI) in domestic airlines, cutting edge Information Technology (IT) interventions and a growing emphasis on regional connectivity. Simply going by the market size, the Indian civil aviation industry amongst the top 10 in the world with a size of around USD 16 billion. However, in order to achieve the vision of becoming the third largest aviation market by 2020, a lot more needs to be done. The Asia Pacific region along with other emerging economies of Latin America and Eastern Europe are projected to lead the growth of the global aviation sector in the next few decades. Steady economic development of China and India would lead to higher spending power and increased need to travel. With one third of the world's population residing in these two nations, there is a huge untapped potential. As per the 12th Five Year Plan (2012-2017), improving air connectivity in tier-2 and tier-3 cities in India is one of the key priorities of the government. This expansion will not only add a much needed boost to the industry, but also increase the viability of new trends like low cost airports and airlines in the country. With the unfortunate downgrade of India to Category 2 by USA's Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), expansion in the global routes may be constrained. That too will lead to greater focus on the domestic market in the short run. All this will have a multiplier effect in terms of higher growth of local economic activities, tourism and employment. India sells one of the costliest Aviation Turbine Fuel (ATF) in the world, nearly 60% costlier than competing nations in the Middle East and ASEAN regions. This is thanks to myopic tax policies at the central and state level. The raw material - ATF – accounts for nearly half of the operating cost of Indian carriers. This explains why domestic flight tickets in India are often costlier than a 3 days weekend package in Thailand and Malaysia' No wonder tourism traffic in India is a fraction of its immense God-gifted potential. Executive Summary
  6. 6. 5 The irony is that the common man in whose name high taxes are imposed on ATF, is himself prevented from flying due to high travel costs! According to a rough estimate, nearly 99.5 percent of the world's third largest economy, have NOT seen the insides of an aircraft. Most Indian carriers therefore are facing financial ruin and are hoping for a white knight to bail them out. Some recent initiatives such as allowing import of ATF are a step in the right direction but more proactive measures are needed in order to make industry more competitive and investor friendly. The positive Indian airlines are slowly becoming evident. Removal of unwritten ban on A380s will help bring down cost of travel and increase tourist arrivals. The 5/20 rule and other regulatory other hurdles in approval of new airlines and import of aircraft need to be abolished at the earliest. The regulatory regime governing Maintenance, Repair and overhaul (MRO) of aircrafts is another classic case of tax and procedural overkill. Not a single commercial aircrafts of Indian carriers undergoes repairs in India. Empty aircrafts are flown to MRO facilities in our neighboring countries and paid for in foreign exchange. The loss of revenue, foreign exchange, employment and direct taxes is immense. All this is thanks to the short-sighted policies regarding indirect taxes (service Tax and VAT) and cumbersome customs procedures regarding import of aircraft parts and consumables. With the growth of air traffic in the region, focused efforts to upgrade the Air Navigation Services (ANS) has become imperative. Segregation or ANS directorate from Airport Authority of India (AAI) into a world class organization with latest infrastructure and well trained professionals is key. Government is expected to decide on the matter soon. In pursuit of becoming a strong aviation player; India perhaps did not put the right emphasis on development of human capital and regulatory frameworks. The FFA downgrade has been fallout of the same. India needs to put its act together to address these issues. The creation of a financially and operationally independent Civil Aviation Authority (CAA) and the National Aviation University (NAU) need to be undertaken on a war footing. There is a large untapped potential growth in the Indian Aviation industry due to the fact that access to aviation is still a dream for nearly 99.5 percent of its large population, nearly 40 percent of which is the upwardly mobile middle class. It is critical for the industry stakeholders to engage and collaborate with policy makers to come up with efficient and rational decision that will shape the future of Indian Civil Aviation Industry. With right policies and a relentless focus on quality, cost and passenger interest, India would be well placed to achieve its vision of becoming the third largest aviation market by 2020 and the largest by 2030.
  7. 7. 6 Introduction to Aviation Industry Air transportation services have evolved into a crucial building block for the world's socio- economic growth. In the last four decades, the air travel across the world has grown by more than 1000% and the air freight has increased by over 1400% while the national economies have grown only three to four times. This phenomenal growth is due to a combination of three key global drivers, namely, increase in disposable incomes, accelerated globalization and deregulation of the aviation industry. Key Global Drivers of Aviation Industry Increasing competition, technological advancements and improved operational efficiencies have enabled the cost of air travel to remain relatively low despite severe volatility of global fuel prices and leading currencies.
  8. 8. 7 Socio-economic benefits of Air Transport Services Air transport is essential for global business and tourism because of the growing value of time and money. Aircrafts transported around 3.1 billion passengers and over 51.6 million tonnes of freight in 2013'. Over 35%oof the inter-regional exports of goods by value and 51% of international tourists are served by air transport services. The development of air transportation services and socio-economic development are highly correlated. According to the International Civil Aviation Organization (CAO), an additional dollar invested in air transport leads to a benefit of around three dollars to the local economy. Moreover, every additional job created in the air transport results in creation of over six new jobs in the local economy. Figure 2 describes the distribution of employment generated by aviation services around the world. Distribution of global employment in the aviation sector
  9. 9. 8 Trends in Aviation Industry Year on Year (YoY) comparison of key parameters for the global aviation industry are represented in following table. Global Passenger and Cargo growth trend (2013 v/s 2012) The growth in passenger traffic has been led by a strong progress made by the Middle East countries supported by the other emerging economies of Latin America, Africa and Asia- Pacific. The developed economies of North America and Europe lagged behind in terms of growth in passenger traffic. The cargo traffic growth rate has recovered from a decreasing trend during 2012. While Middle East nations have managed a strong growth during 201-3, Asia Pacific and North America showed a decline. The details regarding regional passenger and cargo traffic are presented in the following table.
  10. 10. 9 Regional international passenger and cargo traffic growth trends (2013 vs. 2012) It has been observed that during economic upswing, airline traffic grows roughly around twice the rate of growth of GDP. The following figures display the trend of scheduled passengers and cargo during the last decade. The recession caused by the Global Financial Crisis in 2008 has led to a negative growth in both passenger as well as cargo traffic. Global scheduled Air Passenger Traffic, 2004-2013 (in Million)
  11. 11. 10 Global Air freight tonnage, 2OO4-2O13 (in Millions) As the economies develop, especially in the Asian region, the expected aerospace industry is expected to continue on its growth path. This is reflected in the order books of the aircraft manufacturing companies. The global passenger aircraft fleet is expected to grow from the existing size of 16094 (in 20L2) to 33,651 (in 2032). The number of dedicated freighters is expected to grow from 1645, to 2,905 over the same period. While some of the existing passenger aircrafts will be reconfigured as dedicated to be freighter, 871 new freighters are projected to be introduced. Around 28,355 new aircrafts are expected to be added to passenger fleet. The following shows the breakup of new deliveries by region and by type of aircrafts.
  12. 12. 11 Global Aircraft Deliveries by aircraft type 29,226 New deliveries globally during 2013-2032 by aircraft type Regional distribution of aircraft deliveries Regional distribution of 29,226 new deliveries during 2013-2032
  13. 13. 12 The distribution of the new aircraft deliveries, showcased in the figures above, strongly Support the expected trend in the aviation sector. Middle income groups in emerging economies increasingly want to travel by air. During the period of next 20 years. The RPK in these countries is expected to grow at a rate of around 6%, while it is expected to grow at a rate of 4% in the advanced economies of western Europe' North America and Japan. While large aircrafts would be required to serve the routes between pairs of cities with heavy passenger and cargo traffic, smaller aircrafts are expected to grab the lion's share. TheAsiaPacificregionisexpectedtoemergeasthelargestaviationmarketby2032. Middle East and Latin America are expected to enhance their share at the cost of North America and Europe. Forecasted change in pattern of region wise distribution of RPK The proportion of the new deliveries of the aircraft in Asia Pacific region is in line with the global trend where single aisle aircrafts having a share of over 60%. The share of the smaller aircrafts is increasing due to the growing dominance of Low Cost Carriers (LCC). LCCs have driven the growth of the aviation market in this region through low fares, introduction of new routes and periodic discount offers.
  14. 14. 13 India and china, accounting for around one third of world’s population are well poised to contribute to and benefit from growth of aviation sector. The following figure displays the projected 20-year GDP growth rate of various region across the world. This highlight the high growth in aviation expected in the two Asian giants. Regional GDP Growth – 20 year CAGR
  15. 15. 14 Indian Aviation Industry The Indian aviation sector is experiencing a mix of exciting and challenging times. On one hand, mounting losses of domestic airlines, high cost of ATF, show growth in passenger and cargo traffic, rising fares, high airport charges, pitiable state of the MRO sectors, etc. are crippling industry growth. On the other hand, the long term growth prospects of the industry are attracting international prayers to invest in India. The size of Indian civil aviation industry is amongst the top ten in the world at USD 16 billion. Despite market fluctuations especially with regard to ATF prices, the Indian aviation sector is growing, albeit slowly. Indian carriers plan to double their fleet size by 2020 to around 800 aircrafts. In order to cope up with the growing demand of air travel, India’s Ministry of civil Aviation (MoCA) has introduced some far-reaching reforms. These include: 1) Handing over airport management of leading airports to private players on a PPP basis 2) Foreign airlines allowed to invest up to 49% in Indian carriers. This would not only facilitate funds infusion, but will also bring in global best practices and synergy benefits. 3) In addition to the Greenfield airports at Navi Mumbai, Goa, Kannur and Kushinagar, six MI airports have been identified for handover to private management under the PPP route following the successful implementation of PPP models like Delhi, Mumbai, Bangalore, Hyderabad, and Cochin. There are reports of another 14 AAI airports being considered for PPP 4) All Indian carriers are now allowed to fry to foreign locations subject to the 5/20 Rule. The discriminatory 5/20 Rule itself is likely to be abolished. This has led to an increase in share of Indian carriers in the growing international traffic to and from India. 5) 51 new low-cost airports in tier 3-4 cities have been planned in order to improve regional connectivity 6) Direct import of ATF to offset the high sales tax imposed on it. 7) Introduction of 24x7 customs facility at the cargo terminals at reading airports. 8) Extension of duty-free period for parts and testing equipment imported for Maintenance, Repairs and Overhaul (MRO) from three months to one year.
  16. 16. 15 9) Maintenance, Repairs and overhaul operations included under the airport infrastructure category, in a view to facilitate external commercial borrowings (ECB) for the sector However global comparison of air travel penetrations shows that India (at 0.04 air-trips per capita per annum) stands far behind the developed countries like US and Australia (2 air-trips per capita per annum). China’s air travel penetration is five times the size of India's despite having a population around 10 percent higher. As India's economy grows, disposable income rise and the value of time increases, the air travel penetration is expected to grow exponentially.
  17. 17. 16 Evolution of Indian Aviation Industry: - In the last decade, India has made a significant growth in aviation. As per data from Airports Authority of India (AAI), passenger throughout grew to 159 million (FY 13) and cargo throughput to 2.19 MT (FY 13) registering an impressive growth of 13% and 10% CAGR respectively for the period FY 03-13. In the last five years, the passenger handling capacity of airports in India has risen from 72 million to 233 million. This capacity growth has been possible because of the proactive step taken by the government and the private sector. India is poised to be among top three aviation markets by 2020, from its ninth position currently. Investments worth 50 billion USD envisaged Key highlights of the expected investment over the next five years are mentioned below: 1. Airlines: Indian carriers plan to increase their fleet size to reach 800 aircrafts by 2020 2. Airports: Private operators expected to contribute more than three-fourth of the investment in next 5 years ;including investment in cargo handling and other non-aero infrastructure 3. ATC: Investments in CNS / ATM/ Meteorology equipment up gradation; augmentation of training infrastructure, induction of satellite navigation GAGAN (GPS aided geo-augmented navigation) to harmonize with leading global initiatives as SESAR and NextGen 4. General Aviation: USD 4.3 billion investment planned to augment the GA infrastructure.300business jets, 300 small aircrafts and 250 helicopters expected to be added to the current fleet in next 5 years. Expected investment in Aviation Industry of India ($ Billion) 2012-2017
  18. 18. 17 Passenger Traffic Growth: - In FY13, Indian aviation industry witnessed a contraction in passenger traffic, due to combination of general slowdown in the economy and high prices of air tickets. The total passenger traffic in FY2013 was l59 million as compared to 162 million in FY2012. Despite the contraction in domestic air traffic, international traffic to and from India has been strong, growing at a GAGR 9% between FY2010 and 2013. According to MoCA, overall air traffic is expected to grow at an annual average growth rate of 10.1percent in this decade. Domestic traffic is expected to grow at 11.4 Percent and international traffic is expected to grow at 9.5percent for the next ten years. It has been observed that during economic upswing, airline traffic grows roughly around twice the rate of growth of GDP. The following figures display the trend of scheduled passengers and cargo during the last decade. The recession caused by the Global Financial Crisis in 200g has led to a negative growth in both passenger as well as cargo traffic. Growth in passenger traffic (millions) handled at Indian airports, 2008-2013
  19. 19. 18 Cargo Traffic Growth: - The total cargo throughout for the FY13 was 2.19 mmtpa as compared 2.3 mmtpa in Fy2012. While the domestic cargo traffic has increased by 7.2% CAGR from FY06 to FY13, international cargo traffic has grown by CAGR of 6.2% over the same period. Growth in air cargo volume (million tons) at Indian Airports, 2008-13 The corresponding number of air traffic movements (ATMs) has been as displayed in following graph.
  20. 20. 19 Increasing share of low cost carriers in the Indian market The airline landscape in India has transformed radically in recent years. In 2003, there were just 4 carriers - Air India, Indian Airlines, Jet Airways and Air Sahara, all operating full service models. The private carriers in those days were limited to operating domestic routes only. In 2013, there are five airlines namely - Air India, Jet Airways (including Jet Lite), IndiGo, SpiceJet and GoAir. All carriers except GoAir fly on international routes. The most significant development in the Indian domestic market is the growing dominance of the low-cost carrier model, which in FY 2013 accounted for almost 70 percent of the domestic capacity. Some full service carriers plan to shift more seats to their low cost offerings in line with market trends.
  21. 21. 20 Market share of key domestic airlines (October-2013) Thus, overall the sector outlook is promising. However certain progressive policy decisions by the government are the need of the hour. These include: a) Enhancing Regional Connectivity b) Rationalization of ATF taxes c) Elimination of discriminatory taxation policy for domestic MRO players d) Segregation of ANS functions from AAI e) Abolition of the 5/20 Rule f) Human Resource Development
  22. 22. 21 Unlocking the Indian Aviation Sector Enhancing regional connectivity: - The growth of civil aviation in India has not led to a homogenous increase in air connectivity. Despite the doubling of the passenger traffic over the last five years, several Tier 2/3 cities are unconnected or underserved by airlines. With the existing economic centres reaching a saturation point, business activities are bound to move to newer destinations. Air connectivity to these new economic centres will not only provide a fillip to the local economy but also bring in incremental traffic to existing airports. Analysis of ATMs operated in 21 leading states of India vis-a-vis total state population and total passenger flown is stated in the figure below. It highlights the disparity in air connectivity especially in North, East and North East regions of India. Distribution of population, passengers & ATMs across all Indian States, 2012-2019
  23. 23. 22 Air connectivity: - Most places in North-East India are inaccessible due to inadequate road/rail facilities. The only viable means of transportation in many areas is by air: The flight frequency per week available to and from 9 airports in the North-Eastern Region by domestic scheduled carriers is shown in the figure below: Air connectivity across North Eastern States, (2012 - 2013 vs. 2013 - 2014) From the above figure, this has been observed that the leading airports in the North East airport are experiencing nearly double the frequency in FY 2014 as compared to the previous year. Dimapur, Jorhat and Shillong are still underserved. Data reveals that Air India, Jet Airways and Indigo aggressively expanding their services to North East.
  24. 24. 23 Regulations for Regional Airlines: - DGCA has laid down separate guidelines to operate regional air transport service in India. Although many airlines received a no-objection certificate from the government to operate regional services in the past few years, none of them have been able to take-off. Paramount, MDLR and Air Mantra are some examples. Air taxi operator Ventura is Struggling and Deccan Shuttles closed down within months of starting. The recently launched Air Costa Connects southern cities like Hyderabad, Chennai, Bengaluru and Vijayawada to Ahmedabad and Jaipur. Some more regional carriers are on the way. MoCA has held interactions with industry stakeholders in the past regarding relaxation on some of the DGCA norms and the existing route dispersal guidelines (see box below). The Route Dispersal Guidelines (RDG), introduced in 1994, make it mandatory for domestic scheduled carriers to deploy a certain proportion of their capacity to regional and remote airports. These guidelines are being revised. MoCA is also evaluating a seat-trading system which will allow domestic carriers to do code shares with regional airlines and use the credits thereof to meet their RDG obligations.
  25. 25. 24
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  28. 28. 27 Excess supply v/s lower demand: - Regional airports suffer from underutilization of existing resources. These include the following. Underutilized parking bays Indian airports allocate parking stands to cater to all types of aircrafts. These airports provide customized bay to park Boeing, Airbus and ATR aircrafts according to their width and size. The chart below illustrates the underutilization of the parking stands for the airports in 2013. Number of parking boys utilized and vacant at airports with watch hours of 24 hours IST 2Ol3
  29. 29. 28 Runways The minimum runway length in most of the Indian regional or remote airports varies between 1"400 meters to 1700 meters which are capable of handling 40-70 seater aircrafts. Around eight non-metro airports have a runway length of more than 2300 meters which is sufficient to handle narrow body aircrafts like A320s and B737s. Around ten non-metro airports have night landing facility. A20-40 seater aircraft can operate at most of the existing regional airports. However, as can be seen from the figure below many of these airstrips are either non- operational or grossly underutilized. They require monetary, fiscal and policy support till they achieve self-sufficiency. Maintenance, repair and overhaul services The unused apron and hangers at regional airports cab be utilized in providing Maintenance, Repair and Overhaul (MRO) services to airlines. The Airworks facility at Hosur Airport is one such example. Indian carriers today send their entire fleet out of India at a high cost. Supported with the favorable fiscal policies, the same MRO facilities can be set up in India over 5-8 year period. It would be win-win for airlines, regional airports and the local economy. This requires deep foresight on part of the state governments. Analysis of fleet and airport infrastructure in regional and remote routes Fleet Analysis: - Indian domestic scheduled carriers operate ATR, Bombardier and Embraer aircrafts on regional routes. Till date, there are less than 50 small and medium sized aircrafts in India with seating capacity between 40-100 seats. The major players flying regional routes are Jet Airways with ATR 72-500 and Air India with their ATR 42-300 aircrafts. SpiceJet introduced Bombardier Q-400 aircrafts for flying regional routes. Indigo and GoAir operate their A320s on regional routes. Air India Regional with its four Bombardier CRJ700s has been the country's only operator of regional jets so far. Paramount Airways had used jets earlier on regional routes but could not continue. Air Costa started serving regional routes in October 2013 with Embraer jets.
  30. 30. 29 Analyzing the opportunity at airports Due to the congested nature of and high airport charges in metro airports, there is an opportunity to consider non-metro airports as hubs for new or existing carriers. For instance the new airline Air Costa is headquartered in Vijayawada and plans to set up an MRO facility there in future. Cost advantages of regional routes Operating regional routes attract various cost advantages on operational, regulatory and infrastructure front. Regional aircrafts, in general, have a low break-even seat factor and have a shorter turnaround time due to their smaller size. Indian carriers with aircraft weight below 40 MT are exempt from paying navigation and airport charges. No landing charges are applicable for aircraft less than 80 seats. The landing and parking charges at Category II and Category II airports (including non-defense airports in North-East Region, Jammu & Kashmir; Andaman & Nicobar Islands and Lakshadweep) is reduced by 25 per cent of the current rate for domestic scheduled airlines. For an airline operating between 2200 and 0600 hrs, the night parking charges are 50 percent of the existing parking charges at all airports except Chennai and Kolkata. Choice of aircraft for regional air connectivity is the key As the air travel demand in remote and regional areas is currently low these markets may require limited frequencies and small sized aircrafts. Deploying larger aircrafts on these routes may result in losses. One option is to maintain a fleet of two aircraft sizes and alter the fleet mix based on the market response. The downside is the additional cost of maintaining separate crews, spares and maintenance infrastructure. In the Indian scenario, on an average, an aircraft (with seating capacity more than 70) operating around 1l--12 hours day is considered to be well utilized. The operating hours may reduce while operating a small type of aircraft on the regional routes due to factors such as airport infrastructure, navigational aids, night flying facilities, weather patterns and runway operational hours, etc. Slot allocation Since regional carriers operate on a different business model, it becomes imperative to study the slot allocation parameters in advance. There have been extensive competitions between Indian carriers to get their preferred time slot that may affect regional carriers' ability to add frequencies, especially to metro airports. Airports prefer larger aircrafts since the airport tariffs are linked to the size of the aircrafts.
  31. 31. 30 Prior to 2007, the slots were allocated according to the International Air Transport Association (ATA) scheduling guidelines. However certain amendments in the policy have been made and are likely to be implemented soon. The new policy gives preference for slot allocation to airlines: a) With better On-Time performance record b) Consistency in utilization of slots c) Clean payment record of an airline with no dues certificate d) Priority to airline with new frights to connect new stations e) Priority to airline flying within restricted “watch hour” MoCA should consider reserving some slots during peak hours for regional carriers under the category “Priority to airline with new flights to connect new stations”. Developing own regional aircraft Owing to the growing regional sector demand, India is realizing the need to develop an indigenous Regional Transport Aircraft (RTA), a la Brazil and China. RTA-70 aircraft is an initiative by Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) and National Aerospace Laboratories (NAL). Care should be taken that the best talents of India’s private sector are leveraged in a spirit of PPP, a la the successful space program of ISRO. Care should also be taken that no wheels are reinvented and we utilize key aircraft parts and technologies that have already been perfected are available off-the-shelf at a reasonable price. Development of an indigenous low cost RTA would certainly provide a great fillip to regional aviation in India. Airport Development Initiative There are various Initiative taken by MoCA and AAI for the development of airports in remote areas. a) Development of 15 low cost airports has been approved by MoCA. b) AAI has carried out upgradation of 31 non-operational airports in the last four years. c) Operations and Maintenance of six brown-field airports has been planned to be handed over to private players on a PPP basis. Of the six brown-field airports, four of them are non-metro airports. d) Another 14 airports of AAI are being planned to be handed over to private operators.
  32. 32. 31 State government initiatives Various state governments are realizing the importance of aviation and are taking proactive measures of provide fiscal, monetary and policy support. Some of the reform steps undertaken as follows: A. West Bengal: State government has announced 0% VAT an ATF at Bagdogra and Durgapur airports and 15% VAT on additional flights starting from Kolkata Airport. West Bengal is the only state to have 0% VAT at regional airports and 15% VAT on a metro project. Other states are expected air connectivity in their respective states. B. Andhra Pradesh, Gujarat and Maharashtra: They have set up a dedicated aviation agency with objective of promoting intra-state air connectivity in their respective state. C. Maharashtra: With its dedicated agency Maharashtra Air Development Corporation (MDMC), Maharashtra is in the process of developing five Greenfield airports in the state. D. Gujarat: Formed Aviation Turbine Fuel Trading Company to cut down import parity, marketing expenses, creating a price advantage for aviation activities in Gujarat. E. Karnataka: Drafted a Civil Aviation plan to develop the low cost airstrips and Helipads in the state. F. Odisha and Jharkhand: Reduced VAT on ATF to 5% and 4% respectively. G. Madhya Pradesh: Entered into a Seat underwriting arrangement with Non-scheduled operators to enhance the viability of their operations. Reduced VAT on ATF to 5%. H. Chhattisgarh: Offered exemption of landing and parking charges on the conditional operations of flights as per the published schedule. Reduced VAT on ATF to 4 % Regional connectivity in India-way forward Many Indian states have started taking pro-active measures to promote air connectivity in their states. Their initiatives are largely in the field of development of airports, reduction in VAT on ATF, promotion of flying school and provision of subsidies in airlines. States have gradually realized that reduction in airlines’ operation costs is the only way to incentivize the airlines to serve their states.
  33. 33. 32 The actions required to enhance regional connectivity are: a) State governments have to pray a vital role: state governments need to take the initiative in the field of development of low cost airports, provision of multi-modal connectivity to the airport and promotion of flying schools, etc. Suggested measures to be undertaken by state Governments to facilitate promotion of regional air connectivity in their states:-  Formation of an independent department for civil aviation  Zero rating of VAT on ATF  Underwriting seats on new routes  Provide security and fire services by local police and fire stations necessary subject to approvals from Bureau of Civil Aviation security (BCAS) and DGCA.  Make provisions of rand and extension of roads & utilities (power and water connections) for development of low-cost airports.  Waive off stamp duty, property tax, and electricity duty for a 10 year period. b) Reduction of sales tax on ATF: since Airline Turbine Fuel (ATF) accounts for 40- 50o/o of an airline operating cost, reduction of sales tax on ATF is considered to be one of the most critical needs of the aviation industry. As discussed earlier many states have already done this. Larger states like Delhi, Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka and Tamil Nadu need to do this on priority, else the ATF uplift will shift to other states anyways. c) Helipad development throughout the country: Helicopter operation are a cost effective mode of providing air connectivity. Efforts should be made to develop, heliports in every district of the country. Heliports can come in handy during natural or man-made disasters. This may be done through the PPP route in collaboration with other ministries like home, defence, industry and tourism. d) Development of low cost airports: The next generation of aviation growth in India is expected to be triggered by regional airports. At present, there are around 450 used/ un- used abandoned airports and airstrips spread all over the country. About 225 of them are owned by state Governments or by private operators. Efforts must be undertaken to activate these airports through PPP, subject to their long term finance viability.
  34. 34. 33 e) Relaxation on regulation to operate regional air services: As per Directorate General of Civil Aviation (DGCA) guidelines, Indian carriers looking to commerce regional air services have to undertake operations in one of the designated regions- north, south, west or rest/northeast. They are allowed to operate between two metro cities, except in the southern region. This policy needs to be liberalized. f) Revising the security service requirement: The regulations laid down by MoCA and Bureau of Civil Aviation Security (BACS) for the 24 hours of airport security service for regional airports should be reviewed in order to reduce the operating expenses of smaller airports. Physical deployment of security guards can be replaced with CCTV based smart security. g) Essential Air Services Fund (EASF): The proposed EASF by MoCA needs to be implemented which can boost tourism and promote tier-2 and tier-3 air connectivity. Greater private sector investment in airports should be encouraged instead of rerouting heavy fees collected from privately operated airports for other government operated airports. h) Code sharing concept to be introduced: Concept of code sharing should be introduced between regional/ non-scheduled operators and scheduled airlines that will allow the airlines to leverage each-other's network and marketing strengths. This also prevents wastage of costly ATF when large aircrafts of scheduled airlines operate on regional routes with low seat factors, just in order to meet their obligations under RDG. i) Slot allocation: During slot allocation, slots should be reserved for small aircrafts flying from regional destinations. j) Route dispersal guidelines to be restructured: Regional carriers are not permitted to operate on category-l routes. Further these carriers are not able to operate during night time at regional airports that lack night landing facilities. This policy needs to be reviewed in order to ensure higher aircraft utilization per day by regional airlines.
  35. 35. 34 International best practices to promote regional and remote area connectivity: In most of the leading aviation markets, air connectivity is promoted by the Government. Some of the best practices followed are as follows: a) Supporting airlines by sharing risks to add a new destination to their flight routes  By providing incentives to the airline for adding new destinations to their routes. These payments are made by the beneficiary airport operator or the government under a Route Development Fund (RDF) mechanism  Payment to carriers for marketing the destination (e.g. Singapore Airlines promoting Australia as a tourism destination).  Offering discounts on airport charges (Indian airports do this).  By sharing demand related uncertainties and providing guarantee for a certain number of seats per flight. b) Providing regulatory mechanism to boost regional connectivity  Providing restrictions on number of operators on particular routes  Making it mandatory for airline operators to provide capacity on low traffic routes and providing them rights to operate on trunk routes in exchange (India does this).  Promoting regional air connectivity through a combination of regulated and deregulated routes as done in Western Australia.
  36. 36. 35 Rationalizing Taxes It is a well-known fact that the Indian aviation industry is overtaxed and this is being reflected in the industry’s lack of competitiveness on the global level. The proactive steps being taken by several progressive state governments on the VAT front have been highlighted earlier. The 12.36% Service Tax on air tickets and services that airlines purchase such as landing and air navigation, contravenes global norms and handicaps the Indian industry. Domestic fuel (Aviation Turbine Fuel) attracts 8.24% excise duty and in addition to this state taxes may go up to 30%. Globally, fuel accounts for around 34% of an airline's cost. In India, the additional taxes and duties bring up this percentage around 45%.
  37. 37. 36 It is important for India to acknowledge the devastating impact of high taxes. Most domestic airlines have become loss making ventures and the high cost of connectivity would impose a penalty in the form of rower growth of economy and employment. Some of the avoidable taxes/charges that need immediate attention are as follows; a) Service tax on tickets as well as lending and navigation charges. b) Taxes on Aviation Turbine Fuel - an excise duty of 8.2% (The average fuel cost is around 45o/o for Indian carriers which is well above the global average of 33%). c) Domestic/state charges (20-3oo/o). d) Taxes on MRO
  38. 38. 37 Redesigning the regulatory landscape: In 2009, Airport Economic Regulatory Authority (AERA) was set up to determine the tariff of aeronautical services at major airports, passenger fees to be levied and monitor service standards. As per the AERA Act 2008, major airports have been defined as the airports which have or are designated to have an annual passenger throughput of more than one and a half million. Currently, 15 major airports are under the ambit of the AERA. However, these are a few fundamental gaps in the functioning of the AERA. While it has the authority to fix the tariff for major airports, its charter does not mandate it to create an enabling environment for investment in airport infrastructure. Also the non-major airports which are not under the purview of AERA, do not currently have any policy for economic regulation. Hence, the Government has to come up with a philosophy of tariff regulation at these airports, in order to balance the interest of passengers and investors.
  39. 39. 38
  40. 40. 39 The way forward for the Indian regulatory landscape: There are different perspectives on economic regulation of airports in India. This is mainly due to a wide diversity in the airports. While uniformity of policy is necessary to create a level playing field, it may be noted that each type of airport has unique challenges associated with it. It is therefore necessary to develop a regulatory approach that addresses these unique challenges while ensuring financial viability of the airport and public interest. The regulatory philosophy should encourage the world's best airport developers to invest in India's airports. Regulatory uncertainties and excessive focus on tariff cutting discourages investors. Excessive profit booking by investors leads to adverse reactions from users and society at largely may also jeopardize India's aspiration to become a leading aviation hub. While airports can be treated as monopoly assets from a geographical perspective, global experience shows that airports cannot charge tariff to the passenger at their will. The profitability of airports comes from traffic volumes and the origin-destination traffic does not suffice. Airports compete with each other to become a preferred hub for transfer and transit passengers. This gives them additional landing and parking charges, passenger fees and revenues from retail sales. Thus, while proposing the regulatory approach for airports, the impact of market forces cannot be ignored. If airports charge excessively and create an adverse impact on the passenger throughput, airlines may reduce or stop their flights to the said airport, putting the significant investments to risk. Companies may cut down on corporate travel and use alternative approaches like video conferences, etc. Airport owners are cognizant of this threat. Further, to reduce the impact of the aeronautical charges, the airport operator should undertake all possible mitigating measures, like lean capital expenditure, lower operating costs, exploitation of the non-aeronautical revenue streams and enhanced benefits to the airlines and air passengers in order to achieve higher aeronautical revenue. According to the ICAO, the regulatory approach for airports should derive from the specific objectives and situation of each nation. Therefore, India's policy framework for airports should be aligned to the country's vision of becoming the third largest aviation market by 2020. There is need for a stable, transparent, predictable and investor-friendly regulatory regime with a mechanism for time-bound resolution of issues to create a sense of certainty in the sector. India needs to consider tariff determination on case to case basis. Application of single till system at an airport may hurt its financial viability and may discourage investments in airport infrastructure. on the other hand, applying the dual till approach to the airports may not be fair to passengers who do contribute to non-aeronautical. Revenues accruing from retail, advertising, car parking, etc.
  41. 41. 40 The hybrid till approach, therefore, appears to be the best suited for India. The extent of cross subsidization (e.g. 30% in case of Delhi and Mumbai Airports) of aeronautical expenses by non-aeronautical revenue can be determined through discussions between stakeholders. Supporting the MRO Industry India's current MRO market size is estimated to be around USD 700 million. By 2020, the total Indian fleet would double in number, making it critical to have a strong domestic MRO industry. As per Boeing, the market is expected to grow at 7% CAGR for the next 8 years to reach USD L.5 billion by 2020. The figure below shows the break-up of the MRO market in India. Engine overhaul is the largest segment of the MRO market. The Indian MRO industry is facing significant challenges which are slowing down the growth of this industry. Some of these factors include un-friendly taxation structure cumbersome procedures for import of components and movement of foreign experts, and inadequate infrastructure. According to industry 5-10% of the MRO work for domestic scheduled carriers is carried out in India and most of the maintenance activity work is outsourced to third-party service providers outside the country. This marks a lack of competitiveness in the Indian MRO sector. It is critical that both the taxation and policy related bottlenecks are thoroughly examined and addressed to put the Indian MRO industry on a high growth trajectory. One main issue that needs to be tackled on an urgent basis are the unnecessary taxes on the industry which drive down the domestic MRO industry's competitiveness and reduce investors' interest in it.
  42. 42. 41 Rationalize value Added Tax (VAT) and Service Tax on MRO MRO is critical to the growth of the aviation sector in India. It generates employment, revenue and government taxes. A close collaboration between the government, airlines, airports and the MRO industry would be crucial for addressing the high taxation in the form of VAT and Service Tax along with other policy level issues. The following chart addresses some of these key issues surrounding high taxation of the MRO industry in India. Key issues surrounding high taxation of the MRO industry in India The actions required to make India a global MRO hub are as follows: a) Elimination of discriminatory taxation policy for domestic MRO players: Due to discriminatory tax policy, Indian MRO players have to suffer an additional tax burden of nearly 40%o over foreign MROs. These are in terms of import duties, VAT and service tax. This has led to a strange situation. India carriers prefer to fly their aircrafts and crew at a high cost to other MRO locations like Dubai, Singapore, Malaysia, Sri Lanka etc., since it still works out to be more cost-effective than doing the repairs in India.
  43. 43. 42 There is an urgent need for rationalization of this anomalous taxation policy that has only weakened India's competitiveness as an aviation hub. b) Abolishing of import duties for spare parts: Due to high import duties, (not applicable to foreign MROs) local MROs are not able to maintain an inventory of key spare parts. This, at times, leads to Indian aircrafts being grounded for longer periods. Abolition or reduction of import duties for spare parts will cut short the timelines for servicing the aircrafts. c) Treatment as import substitution: Given that the aerospace and MRO industry in India is in its infancy, and that there is a heavy dependence of Indian carriers on MROs in foreign countries, the domestic MRO industry should be supported as a means of import substitution. For instance, manufacturing of power sector equipment for domestic industry is treated as deemed exports and receives significant tax benefits. d) Impetus on MRO joint ventures: The Government should incentivize airlines to consider setting up their dedicated MRO hubs in India through three-way joint ventures with MRO service providers and airport operators. This assures sustained business for the venture as well as cost advantage for the airlines. e) Streamlining of licensing and security clearance procedures: According to industry players, receiving approvals for an MRO establishment is extremely challenging. Currently the license is given out as a ground handler instead of a MRO player which suggest that the authorities are not distinguishing between these two very distinct services. In case of urgent of a grounded aircraft, requiring foreign specialists to be flown in at short notice, the amount of time taken for getting security clearance for such experts is highly time consuming. Their late arrival causes significant losses for the airlines since the opportunity cost of a grounded aircraft is extremely high. There is an urgent need to streamline clearance procedures so that there is a reasonable balance between business exigencies and security considerations. Corporatization of Air Navigation Services (ANS) India has been amongst one of the countries experiencing fastest growing aviation market and is expected to be amongst the top three aviation markets globally by the end of this decade. As mentioned in the preceding sections, the number of aircraft movement at Indian airports in FY 2OL2-2013 was around 1.77 million, which is more than double the number of aircraft movement in FY2002-03.
  44. 44. 43 The navigation infrastructure on the ground has not been able to keep pace with the growing number of aircraft movements putting ANS under considerable pressure. Immediate actions are critical to ensure safe operations in the Indian skies. ANS needs to augment capacity along with technology, training and efficiency improvements. Focused attention is required to address this situation. AAI today handles a dual responsibility of ANS along with airport management. Segregating ANS functions into an independent corporate entity (ANS Corporation of India or ‘ANSCI’) is a critical requirement. This would also be in line with standards of International Civil Aviation Organization (lCAO) which states that the primary objectives of ANS and airport operators are different and that ANS functions should be vested with an independent organization to achieve increased efficiency and reduced cost. Segregation of AAI and ANS enable the specialized functions of airport operations and air navigation to be handled by two independent organizations. The two organizations would have well-defined focus on their respective functions and facilitate timely, strategic, operational and financial decisions. AAI with its key focus area of airport development and operations would also be able to focus more effectively on enhancing operational quality at existing airports and developing greater regional Abolition of 5/20 Rule Current rules require Indian carriers to be in operation for at least five years and have a fleet of 20 aircrafts to be eligible to fly on international routes. This is informally known as the "5/20 Rule". The 5/20 Rule is an anachronistic, discriminatory and anti-competition policy that the industry has been opposing for the last several years. This rule works against the interest of Indian carriers. Today, a one day old airline registered abroad with a one aircraft fleet can fly into India with no entry barriers. Its removal will add to the attractiveness of the Indian aviation sector. Abolishing the rule will allow domestic airlines to utilize their aircrafts during the night time on foreign routes rather than parking them at Indian airports and incurring parking charges. This way a liability converts into an opportunity to enhance revenues and profits. Some Indian carriers in the past acquired other carriers in order to get around the 5/20 rule, resulting in severe financial challenges to themselves. According to media reports, MoCA has requested the union Cabinet to abolish this discriminatory rule.
  45. 45. 44 Review of bilateral seat quotas The bilateral airline seat quotas have their origin in the Chicago Convention of 1944, when shattered economies needed protectionist policies. Today, seven decades later we need to question the very relevance of bilateral quotas when we are trying to make India an aviation and tourism hub. Foreign tourist arrivals in India are an abysmal 7 million per year despite an unlimited bounty of natural, religious and cultural attractions. Small economy like Singapore gets L4 million foreign tourists per annum, Malaysia 25 million and China 58 million. MoCA should consider having an 'open skies policy' for a five year experimental period, extendable by another five. We can always roll it back unilaterally in case we see 'havoc' being created. India itself signed an open skies agreement with USA in 2005 giving unlimited seat quotas to each other. That didn't lead to US carriers decimating Indian carriers. Air India and Jet do fly to US airports as many times as they want. If we don't have open skies, then every time we negotiate seat quotas with a foreign country wanting to introduce more flights to India, allegations fly thick and fast. India's national interests are better served by having multiple and cheap air connections to India a la the Gulf and ASEAN region, than by artificially constraining flights into India. Various sectors that we have opened up, we have seen quality standards improve and prices fall. Indian companies in turn became world class and many have now started acquiring large global brands. It's time to question old dogmas and enhance our belief in ourselves. Due to fears of dirt-cheap fares being introduced by global carriers with sovereign support, there are enough anti-competition and anti-dumping provisions that can impose effective checks and balances. Addressing shortages in skilled manpower The growth in Indian aviation has created significant employment opportunities. However the supply of skilled human resources has not kept pace with the rapid growth in demand. With passengers and aircraft fleet likely to double by 2020, the need to strengthen the human resource development infrastructure is immediate. As per KPMG estimates, the total manpower requirement of airlines is estimated to rise from 62000 in FY-2011 to 1l7,000 by FY-20L7. This includes the number of pilots, cabin crew, aircrafts engineers and techniques (MRO), ground handling staff, cargo handling staff, administrative and sales staff. This is based on benchmarks provided by ICAO for different classes of personnel (pilot, cabin crew, etc.) per aircraft.
  46. 46. 45 Workforce requirements estimates for Indian Aviation sector, 2011-2017 Foreign carriers have begun to warm up to the opening up of 49% FDI in Indian Airlines but remain skeptical due to the heavy taxation prevalent in the industry. It is estimated that Indian aviation will need about 350,000 new employees to facilitate growth in the next decade. Shortfalls in skilled labor could create safety issues and may see staff salaries' rise. Robust training programs will be the key to a sustainable future, especially considering that India will probably continue to provide a significant workforce for foreign carriers. This will also require further capital expenditure. The aviation industry is believed to generate indirect and induced employment of nearly six times the direct employment. With direct employment across airports and airlines to be around 150,000 by FY 20L7, the aviation sector in India is expected to provide an indirect and induced employment to around L million people by FY 17. The recent downgrade of India to Category II by Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) is a stinging example of how lack of trained manpower can undo the good work being done to strengthen our aviation sector
  47. 47. 46 Key steps that need to be undertaken to address the shortage of human capital include the following: a) Encourage foreign investment in training facilities for pilots, engineers, managers and ground staff. b) Degrees issued by leading academies in western countries should be made acceptable in India, subject to adequate background checks by DGCA. c) Collaborate with Indian Air Force (IAF) to identify training infrastructure that can be put to use for civil aviation. d) Give immediate priority to training and capacity building of Air Traffic Controller officers (ATCOs). Partnership options with international ATC training institutes should be explored to enhance capacity of civil Aviation Training College (CATC). The enhanced capacity can also help CATC, in the long run, to earn additional revenue by training foreign ATCOs. e) Consider the option of allowing private players to set up ATCO training facilities, subject to adequate supervision by AAI. This may be started in a PPP mode first and thereafter be made fully open to private sector in the long run. f) The current plan for development of National Aviation University (NAU) is a significant leap forward in the development of human capital in this sector Effort should be made to fast- track the project and replicate the concept at 3-4 locations across the country. g) MoCA should liaise with National Skill Development Corporation (NSDC) for skill development programs in the aviation sector especially in areas like ground handling and MRO.
  48. 48. 47 Innovative IT interventions Indian Airport IT Infrastructure in the Pipeline
  49. 49. 48 The Way Forward The Indian civil aviation industry is on a high growth path. India has a vision of becoming the third largest aviation market by 2020 and the largest aviation market by 2030. In order to become a top aviation market, all round improvements are required-in airports, air navigation, cargo, MRO and human resource development. India would need to broaden the base of domestic flyers. Air connectivity in Tier 2/3 cities needs to be developed and the proposed EASF would help partly address the financing challenges. Government policies and regulatory framework need to be futuristic, proactive and aligned to stakeholder expectations. In summary, the key initiatives to be undertaken by the government include the following: a) Enhancing Regional Connectivity: In India, air travel is still being looked upon as an 'elite' mode of travel and has not permeated across the nearly 400 million strong middle class sections. There is a need for the government and industry to work together and bring down ticket costs and hence making air travel affordable for middle class population. The revolution in the Indian telecom sector converting a perceived 'elite' product to a mass product is an inspiration for the civil aviation industry. Given the mandatory fixed costs and lower traffic, the financial viability of Tier 2/3 airports is a concern. There is a greater need to come up with a 'No-Frills Airport‘(NFA) model without compromising on safety and security to support regional connectivity. b) Policy changes on ATF pricing: Allowing direct import of ATF is a positive step but the best solution would be for the Government of India to notify ATF under the 'declared goods‘ category with a uniform application of 4% sales tax. The other option for progressive states is to unilaterally bring down VAT on ATF in the range of 0%o-5o/o. The benefits in terms of increased air traffic, greater economic activity and employment creation could create a virtuous cycle. c) Reforms regarding policy and regulations: There are certain key areas where there is a diversion of opinion between the AERA and the private airport operators. This is likely to affect the investor sentiment when we go for other airport projects in the country - e.g. the USD 3 billion Navi Mumbai International Airport. There is need for a stable, transparent, predictable and investor-friendly regulatory regime with a mechanism for time-bound resolution of issues to create a sense of certainty in the sector.
  50. 50. 49 d) Elimination of discriminatory taxation policy for domestic MRO players: Due to discriminatory tax policy, Indian MRO players have to suffer an additional tax burden of nearly 2O%-3O% over foreign MROs. These taxes in the form of import duties (after the 12 month free period), VAT and service tax should be rationalized to make the MRO industry viable in India. This will help bring back all the revenue' Foreign exchange and jobs that we have unfortunately pushed out of the country e) Segregation of ANS functions from AAI: ANS functions should be segregated from AAI. This would enable both AAI and ANS perform their duties in a more efficient and effective manner. This would also be in line with the global best practices and the findings of many government-appointed committees. f) Abolition of 5/20 Rule: There are sufficient checks and balances to ensure safe operations of airline. The 5/20 rule is an impediment in the growth plans of our domestic airlines and needs to be abolished immediately. g) Human Resource Development: As the sector is growing, the need to enhance our training and skill enhancement infrastructure becomes critical. MoCA and the industry need to work closely. India could actually become an exporter of talent one day. h) Encouraging global airport acquisition by Indian companies: Indian companies are increasingly winning bids for airport development and operations internationally. The government must overtly and covertly support such efforts. Such global enhance the prestige of India’s aviation sector and create opportunities for other Indian companies. i) Provisioning of all-weather operations and night landing facilities: A joint effort between government and the industry can facilitate all all-weather operations and night landing at airports. This would provide impetus for greater tourist traffic and development of air-connectivity especially to hilly regions. This would also help enhance the flying hours of aircrafts that might be busy on trunk routes during normal hours. j) Evolve innovative funding solution: Given the risk, lenders are cautious when issuing long term debt to airport operators. Financial support, especially for developers and airlines serving tier 2/3 cities, is critical. Following ideas can be evaluated:  Allowing airport companies to issue tax free infrastructure bonds  Allowing ECB limits for the sector  Creating an Essential Air Services Fund (EASF) to support air access to Tier 2/3 cities. This could be on similar lines as the Airport Improvement Program (AIP) in USA, or the India Infrastructure Project Development Fund (IIPDF) used to support other infrastructure sectors in India
  51. 51. 50 k) Facilitation by government: A large number of institutional clearances are required for airports. Support of the government would be absolutely vital for new airport projects. A case in point is the National Facilitation committee headed by the cabinet secretary, which played a key role in the timely completion of the modernization of Delhi Airport. Airports are a part of a holistic infrastructure plan for the city and state as a whole. Airports have a symbiotic relationship with trade and tourism opportunities in the airport's hinterland, as in, each feeds off the other. The support from the state governments for the airport's success is therefore vital. l) Tax incentives: The following fiscal incentives need to be considered in order to facilitate greater investments in the sector: • The above measures by the government and industry stakeholders would provide a strong launch pad for India infrastructure status and income tax exemption under sector 80IA should be extended to brown-field expansion of airport business • Benefit under schemes like 'Serve from India scheme' (SFIS) can be made available to the airports • Income tax exemption should be provided to the surplus of Passenger Service Fee - Security Component (PSF-SC) • Service tax should not be levied on Airport Development Fees as it is a capital receipt and not a revenue receipt. An aviation to target the next wave of growth and bring the country close to realizing its vision to emerge as the largest aviation market by 2030.
  52. 52. 51 Bibliography Following are the resources that I used in making of this project: KPMG Analysis FICCI Ministry of Civil Aviation Websites Indian Express Airport Authority of India DGCA Census 2011 World Bank, FAA Airbus Global Market Forecast
  53. 53. 52 THANK YOU