Successfully reported this slideshow.
We use your LinkedIn profile and activity data to personalize ads and to show you more relevant ads. You can change your ad preferences anytime.

Future of Engineering and NFMT

540 views

Published on

Future of engineering technology and the disruption to maintenance through IoT, AI, and Machine Learning.

Published in: Technology
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

Future of Engineering and NFMT

  1. 1. 1 Future of Engineering and Disruption of Maintenance Chris Kluis, MBA, MSE Mintek Mobile Data Solutions Booth 1316
  2. 2. Agenda 2 Topics Past and Present Evolution of the Computer ML, AI, AR, and IoT Future of Engineering
  3. 3. 3 Past and Present
  4. 4. 4 2.6 million years old Author: Jose-Manuel Benito Alvarez https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Oldowan_tradition_chopper.jpg Oldowan Tool from Tanzania
  5. 5. The Ages 5 Stone 2.6 Million Bronze 3,000 BC Iron 1,000 BC http://www.essential-humanities.net/history-overview/stone- bronze-iron-ages/
  6. 6. The Cugnot Steam Trolley 6 Nicholas-Joseph Cugnot 2nd version created in 1771 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_the_automobile
  7. 7. The First Marcus Cart, 1870 7 First gasoline powered combustion engine used on a pushcart https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_the_automobile
  8. 8. First mass-producedcar - Model T 1908-1927 8 Ford engine produced 20hp15,000,000 were sold https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ford_Model_T
  9. 9. Model T Ford cost $850 in 1908 equaling $21,574.38 in 2017 https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/7/72/Ford_factory_LaBoca.jpg
  10. 10. 2017 Ford Mustang 10 47 years later… • Mustang costs: $25,185 (low-end) • 18-27 mpg (increased gas mileage 35-100%) • 300 horsepower (increased approx. 250%) • Air-conditioning, anti-lock brakes, stability control, front, side, overhead, and knee airbags, security system, and 5-star crash rating https://www.autoblog.com/buy/2017- Ford-Mustang/safety-features/ 1970 Mustang Cost: $2,721 ($17,160) 120 horsepower 7-20 mpg
  11. 11. “If GM had kept up with technology like the computer industry has, we would all be driving $25 cars that got 1,000 MPG.” - Bill Gates http://www.wussu.com/humour/gm.htm
  12. 12. 12 The Future is Now
  13. 13. Model S P100D 13 MSRP: $140,000 Miles: 315 mi, battery only MPGe: 92 city/105 highway Horsepower: 691 http://www.motortrend.com/cars/tesla/model- s/2017/2017-tesla-model-s-p100d-first-test-review/
  14. 14. 14 Model 3 MSRP: $35,000+ Miles: 220 mi, battery only Horsepower: 300 https://www.digitaltrends.com/cars/tesla-model-3- performance-specs-news-rumors
  15. 15. U.S vehicle miles driven vs. fatality rate 15 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 240 260 280 300 320 1926 1936 1946 1956 1966 1976 1986 1996 2006 2016 Vehicle miles (tens of billions) Annual deaths per billion miles https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transportation_safety_in_the_United_State s#/media/File:USA_annual_VMT_vs_deaths_per_VMT.png
  16. 16. Waymo 16 Google Self—Driving Car •100,000 miles without an accident •Over 1.7 million miles driven and only 11 accidents •All accidents were caused by humans https://medium.com/basic-income/self-driving-trucks-are-going- to-hit-us-like-a-human-driven-truck-b8507d9c5961 Fun Fact Google’s self-driving car pulled over in 2015 in California for driving too slowly - 24 mph in 35 mph zone; cop was unable to ticket the car.
  17. 17. 17 Evolution of the Computer
  18. 18. First Computers 18 First Mechanical Computer First Electronic Digital Computer First Programmable Computer Charles Babbage 1822 John Atanasoff 1903 Konrad Zuse 1936 https://www.computerhope.com/issues/ch000984.htm
  19. 19. Cray-1 1976-1982 19 • Speed: 160 megaflops • Cost: $8,860,000 • Cost per Teraflop: $58,064,896,000 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cray-1
  20. 20. The Cray Y-MP 1988-1989 20 • Speed: 2.144-2.667 gigaflops • Cost: $20,000,000 • Cost per Teraflop: $7,679,040,119 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cray_Y-MP Fun Fact 20 years later, the Cray Y-MP that would have cost you $20 million would barely be able to run Windows Vista.
  21. 21. Earth Simulator 2002-2004 21 • Speed: 35.86 teraflops • Cost: $540,716,400 • Cost per Teraflop: $15,078,538 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Earth_Simulator Supercomputer, 2017 35.86 teraflops Cost: $3,122
  22. 22. Xbox One X 2017 22 • Speed: 6 teraflops • Cost: $499 • Cost per Teraflop: $83 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xbox_One#/media/File:Microsoft-Xbox- One-S-Console-FL.jpg
  23. 23. 23 Comparing Technology Equivalents iPhone 8, 2017 $699 850 Mhz Cray-1, 1976 $8,860,000 244 Mhz https://www.computerhope.com/issues/ch000984.htm
  24. 24. Average Historic Price of Ram 24 1985-2015 $859,375.00 $103,880.00 $30,875.00 $1,107.00 $189.00 $12.37 $5.50 $4.94 $4.37 0 100000 200000 300000 400000 500000 600000 700000 800000 900000 1000000 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2013 2014 2015 Average cost per gigabyte http://www.statisticbrain.com/average-historic-price-of-ram/
  25. 25. Machine Learning (ML) and Artificial Intelligence (AI)
  26. 26. Artificial Intelligence 26 How Does AI Benefit You? • Google - Search • Alexa and Siri - Personal assistants • Tesla - Self-driving cars • Netflix – Movie recommendations • Nest - Smart thermostat Artificial Intelligence - The theory and development of computer systems able to perform tasks that normally require human intelligence. https://www.forbes.com/sites/robertadams/2017/01/10/10-powerful- examples-of-artificial-intelligence-in-use-today/2/#27e49aac3c8b
  27. 27. 27 A.I. engineers paid $345,000 each to replace thousands of jobs with robots https://www.nytimes.com/2017/10/22/technology/artificial- intelligence-experts-salaries.html?_r=0 Google acquired A.I. Lab DeepMind for $650 million in 2014
  28. 28. AI can predict heart attacks more accurately than doctors 28 American Heart Association’s 8-point checklist accurately detects patients heart risk by 72.8% Algorithms outperformed the 8-point checklist by 7.6% and raising 1.6% fewer false alarms AI system could’ve saved 355 extra lives in a 12-month period out of the 83,000 patient records. 1 2 3 https://www.engadget.com/2017/04/16/ai-can-predict-heart-attacks- more-accurately-than-doctors/ 20 million people die each year due to cardiovascular disease
  29. 29. 29 Google’s Deep Learning AI project diagnoses cancer with 89% accuracy vs. 73% by human doctor http://www.ibtimes.sg/googles-deep-learning-ai-project-diagnoses- cancer-faster-pathologists-8092
  30. 30. JPMorgan Automation Software 30 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-02-28/jpmorgan- marshals-an-army-of-developers-to-automate-high-finance COIN interprets loan agreements in seconds what took lawyers 360,000 hours Bank created its own cloud-computing software making 20,000 developers more productive Bots are expected to handle 1.7 million access requests in 2017, doing the work of 140 people 1 2 3 COIN, Learning Machine Software for JPMorgan Chase and Co.
  31. 31. Industries Losing to AI 31
  32. 32. 32 Farming
  33. 33. 33 http://investeddevelopment.com/2013/06/the-impact- of-technology-in-agriculture/ 0 5 10 15 20 25 $0.00 $2,000.00 $4,000.00 $6,000.00 $8,000.00 $10,000.00 $12,000.00 $14,000.00 $16,000.00 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Employment in Agriculture vs. GDP Growth in U.S. GDP in Billions of Current USD Agriculture Employment (percentage of total employment)
  34. 34. 34 Title with all capitals over image background Lettuceweeding- Cost of robots matches human labor 3.2 million farmers, ranchers, and agricultural managers in U.S. https://qz.com/726667/cheap-robots-are-coming-for-our-farm-jobs-by- taking-the-most-brutal-tasks-first/ux Research
  35. 35. Farmers turn to AI to grow better crops 35 • It took 8,000 employees to do what AI could in 1 week • NatureSweets weekly harvests have grown 2 to 4% • CIO believes AI will eventually improve his greenhouses tomato yields by 20% NatureSweet, tomato company using AI to better control pests and diseases in greenhouses. http://money.cnn.com/2017/07/26/technology/future/farming-ai- tomatoes/index.html
  36. 36. 36 Manufacturing
  37. 37. 20 million worked in factories assembling consumer products in 1980 Americans https://medium.freecodecamp.org/we-cant-bring-back-the- old-manufacturing-jobs-12214a0ab057
  38. 38. 38 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 $- $200.00 $400.00 $600.00 $800.00 $1,000.00 $1,200.00 $1,400.00 $1,600.00 $1,800.00 $2,000.00 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Thousands BillionsDollars Manufacturing Output vs. Employment 1947-2011 Manufacturing Output (left) Manufacturing Employment (right) BEA, BLS https://medium.freecodecamp.org/we-cant-bring-back-the-old- manufacturing-jobs-12214a0ab057
  39. 39. Automated Factory in China 39 Changying Precision Technology Company 60 robot arms working 10 production lines 3 humans monitor robots Before robots arrived, the factory needed 650 human workers now it needs 30 Defect rate dropped by 400% 1 2 3 4 https://medium.freecodecamp.org/we-cant-bring- back-the-old-manufacturing-jobs-12214a0ab057
  40. 40. 2,4001 Robot vs. 200 People 8 hours 40 https://twitter.com/HumanVsMachine/status/88 1174606027030529
  41. 41. 41 RightPick collects items at a rate of 500-600/HR-same speed as a human https://qz.com/952240/righthand-robotics-has-automated-a-new- type-of-warehouse-work-that-could-help-amazon-amzn/ RightHand robotics, automates the process of recognizing and picking up items from boxes
  42. 42. 42 Oil & Gas
  43. 43. 43Scott Santens – scottsantens.com https://medium.com/basic-income/the-real-story-of- automation-beginning-with-one-simple-chart-8b95f9bad71b
  44. 44. 44 Truck Drivers
  45. 45. Most Common Jobs in 2014 45 Software Developer Truck Driver Farmer Other NPR, https://medium.com/basic-income/self-driving-trucks-are- going-to-hit-us-like-a-human-driven-truck-b8507d9c5961
  46. 46. 21% Demand for Trucks in 2020 46 https://medium.com/basic-income/self-driving-trucks-are-going- to-hit-us-like-a-human-driven-truck-b8507d9c5961
  47. 47. 47 May 6, 2015, the first self-driving truck hit the American road in Nevada 1 2 Daimler Freightliner Truck- First self-driving truck 3 4 Trucks will be decade-long testing phase, over A million miles before being deemed fit for function Robot trucks don’t need salaries Complete autonomous capability will be here by 2022 and mass market penetration by 2026 https://medium.com/basic-income/self-driving-trucks-are-going-to-hit- us-like-a-human-driven-truck-b8507d9c5961
  48. 48. 48 38%U.S. jobs taken over by robots within 15 years http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-pwc-robotics- jobs-20170324-story.html
  49. 49. Technology in AR and VR 49
  50. 50. Magic Sudoku with AR Magic sudoku app solves sudoku puzzles with machine learning and augmented reality. Brad Dwyer, magicsudoku.com https://twitter.com/hashtag/madewitharkit?src=hash
  51. 51. Infrared thermographyfor mechanical applications 51 Electrical Systems - Faulty electrical connections and overloaded circuits Mechanical Equipment - Abnormal warm motors or bearing failures Building Applications - Missing insulation, infiltration, or moisture damage Fluid Systems -Line blockages, tank levels, or pipe temperatures 1 2 3 4 Thermovision image heating plant chimney http://www.reliableplant.com/Read/20181/infrared- thermography-mechanical
  52. 52. 52 Title with all capitals over image background Computer Vision Industrial AR applications- Visual inertial odometry and AR mapping technology DAQRI Visual Operating System- 4D viewer and remote expert features Daqri AR Platform Technology https://daqri.com/technology/ar-platform/
  53. 53. UpSkill - Connectingyour Workforce throughAR 53 Receive tasks guidance through real-time content Track task progress, complete orders, checklists and send media Capture and share knowledge for training purposes https://upskill.io/skylight/skylight-overview/
  54. 54. 54
  55. 55. 50 billion machines will be connected http://www.oecd.org/sti/ieconomy/industrial -internet-at-General-Electric.pdf on the internet by 2020
  56. 56. Vibration Analysis 56 Vibration analysis used to improve internal processes and monitor the total help of facilities. Acme Industrial Acme engineers will attach accelerometers to each of the machines sending vibration data to the Cloud. 56 https://www.losant.com/blog/using-iot-and-machine-learning- for-industrial-predictive-maintenance
  57. 57. GuestroomAutomation 57 Starwood hotels implementing smart home make the customer feel comfortable and also increasing energy savings for their hotels. ’Daylight Harvesting’ – Save energy by automatically adjusting the lighting based on natural light detected in the room. https://www.hotel-online.com/press_releases/release/7-trends- for-the-internet-of-things-in-hospitality
  58. 58. If you are tracking 16 meters manually with a labor cost of $16/hour: 58 1 check per day $3,840 1 per hour $92,160 1 per minute* $2,242,560 1 per second IMPOSSIBLE *Dedicated employee sitting in front of meter https://techcrunch.com/2017/03/08/cognitiv-is-using-ai-for- contract-analysis-and-tracking/?ncid=rss
  59. 59. Source: Terrence O’Hanlon reliabilityweb.com https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:6 329363657956302848/
  60. 60. 60 Manufacturers making IIoT work for them 1 2 Airbus – Airline that has a factory worker on the ground using a tablet to assess tasks and sends that information to a robotic tool to complete it. 3 4 Siemens – Builds automated machines for BMW in Germany and their factory is 75% automated with 1,150 employees watching the machines. MAN – A technology that tracks a truck’s raw data in real-time and translates the report to consumers. CGI –Predictive maintenance solution for elevators connecting sensors and systems within elevators to monitor temperature and shaft adjustment. 60 https://internetofbusiness.com/9-examples- manufacturers-iiot/
  61. 61. 61 Drones
  62. 62. Drones and Engineering-Aerones IndustrialDrones 62 Optimize Project and Maintenance Costs Reduce Worker’s Exposure Real-Time Information for Companies https://www.aerones.com/eng/news/?text_id=10
  63. 63. Drone changing a lightbulb Viral video in 2016 of drone changing lightbulb - Baczynski https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0zI56bel1fM https://www.cnet.com/news/drone-attempt-to- change-light-bulb/ Successfully changed lightbulb in 2017 - Baczynski https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VrxNehQeUgQ
  64. 64. 64 How to Future Proof Your Job
  65. 65. How AI Could Transform MaintenanceIndustry 65 • Asset managers using predictive analytics to determine warning system of assets • Automate inspectiondata and checklists for assets • Automaticallygenerate work orders before broken assets • Aids in knowledge transfer for new hires https://techcrunch.com/2017/03/08/cognitiv-is-using-ai-for- contract-analysis-and-tracking/?ncid=rss
  66. 66. 66 Appendix Recommended reading: Ø Scott Suntans: The Real Story of Automation Ø Kevin Drum: You Will Lose Your Job to a Robot Ø Darrell Etherington: GM’s Cruise sets special self-driving event Ø Tristan Greene: Google’s DeepMind breakthroughs at a terrifying pace Ø Fabricio Teixeira: How AI will impact your routine as a designer Ø Matthew Hughes: Las Vegas’ self driving bus Ø https://twitter.com/iamdevloper/status/926458505355235328

×