MZUMBE UNIVERSITY SCHOOL OF PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION AND MANAGEMENT (SOPAM)SUBJECT ; PRINCIPLES OF HUMAN RESOURCE MANAGEMENTCODE ; PUB 228CORSE ; BHRM IINATURE OF TASK; Group assignmentNAMES OF PARTICIPANTS HAMISI ZAKARIA 13307/T.11 ZUHURA KIZUGUTO 15426/T.11 SARAPION HILDA K. 13103/T.11 TONNY MAFOLE 13315/T.11 SCHOLA E. NDONYO 13217/T.11 NITISHE EMMANUEL 15423/T.11 PETRO PAULO 13309/T11 INOCENT MLAGAMA CLAUDIA SIMON 13191/T.11QuestionForecasting the demand for human resource posses problem and challenges in Tanzania organizationsDiscuss .
TABLE OF CONTENTS INTRODUCTION DISCUSSION Problems faces forecasting demand human resource Possible solutions CONCLUSION REFERENCE
Human resource planning has been defined as the process by which management determine howorganization should move from its current manpower position to its desired manpower position.Through its management strive strives to have the right number and the right kind of people atthe right place at the right time, doing things that impact both individual, organization and socialtrend at large. E. W. Vetter (1967) As defined by Bulla and Scott (1994) it is ‘the process forensuring that the human resource requirements of an organization are identified and plans aremade for satisfying those requirements’.Human resource planning is based on the belief that people are an organization’s most importantstrategic resource. It is generally concerned with matching resources to business needs in thelonger term, although it will sometimes address shorter term requirements. It addresses humanresource needs both in quantitative and qualitative terms that is how many people and what sortof people are needed.As a part of corporate business planning, human resource planning said to be done in three clearsteps; Forecasting future people needs (demand forecasting). Forecasting the future availabilityof people (supply forecasting). Drawing up plans to match supply to demand. Whereby at the laststep the possible measures are taken to deal with any incidents which may disturb theequilibrium between the needed human resource and the work load.But as Casson (1978) as couted by Armstrong (2006) pointed out, this conventional wisdomrepresents human resource planning as an ‘all-embracing, policy-making activity producing, on arolling basis, precise forecasts using technically sophisticated and highly integrated planningsystems’. He suggests that it is better regarded as, first, a regular monitoring activity, throughwhich human resource stocks and flows and their relationship to business needs can be betterunderstood, assessed and controlled, problems highlighted and a base established from which torespond to unforeseen events; and second, an investigatory activity by which the human resourceimplications of particular problems and change situations can be explored and the effects ofalternative policies and actions investigated.As the need of the question our discussion will base on one of three mentioned steps and that isdemand forecasting. At a more practical level, forecasting demand involves determining the
numbers and kinds of personnel that an organization will need at some point in the future. Mostmanagers consider several factors when forecasting future personnel needs. The demand for theorganization’s product or service is paramount. Thus, in a business, markets and sales figures areprojected first. Then, the personnel needed to serve the projected capacity is estimated. Other factorstypically considered when forecasting the demand for personnel include budget constraints; turnoverdue to resignations, terminations, transfers, and retirement; new technology in the field; decisions toupgrade the quality of services provided; and minority hiring goals (Noe, 2012).Keeping in consideration all the above mentioned factors doesn’t leave forecasting human resourcedemand as the party of human resource planning with no challenges and problem especial indeveloping countries like Tanzania.As a future oriented category, forecasting human resource demand in Tanzania faces a number ofchallenges and problems in which the following championed others.Uncertainties is one of the problem and far most big challenge that faces forecasting human resourcedemand in Tanzania and elsewhere. As the matter of fact that human beings are blind about thefuture, changes that occurs in our political, social and economical sphere, poses imbalances in ourfuture plans. Uncertainty about labor turn over which is the outcome of unsatisfied workingenvironment and competition in labor market, technological changes as the influence from globalizedworld, and market fluctuation due to the week economy of Tanzania acts as a big challenge towardproper human resource forecasting that ends up with massive redundancies and job right sizing as theway of balancing the economy of the state.Further more, too much rely on the past experience is another problem in forecasting human resourcedemand in Tanzania as the case study. It has been a daily routine for managers and planners to relytheir future plans on the past experience. This behavior assumes that all factors which may influencechanges in their plans will remain constant during the running period so whatever is planed now willsucceed since they had previous succession through the same plan. In return, for the sensitivity fieldlike human resource planning it ends up with a big number of errors since human resource planningas the multidisciplinary field of study and action depends on a huge number of factors such aspolitical policies, economical trend, social trend and other physical phenomena which can not remainconstant through out. So any small changes that arise in the above factors disturb the plan.
Lack of reliable and accurate data in the human resource field also poses another problem inforecasting human resource demand. There is no full data development that concerning aboutmanpower structure in most of Tanzanian organization and whatever they are acquired they are nottaken as one of importance. Data concerning about number of employees that organization holds atthe current period and their skills, age, gender, change in work load time to time and daily routine aremuch important in forecasting human resource demand in any organization and wherever it happensthat an organization doesn’t take these data into consideration as its day after day pilot, it willdirectly pose the threats to the manpower planning including finding themselves overstaffing orunderstaffing at the near coming future hence loss.Also lack or poor top management support. So as human resource planning and its three mentionedsteps to succeed, it needs full top management support. Top management is responsible in assessingthe relevance of human resource data if they can shoulder the strategies of an organization, goals andobjectives of an organization. If the human resource plans meets the future demands of anorganization it will receive full supports from the top management but if it doesn’t, managementdiscourages its relevance and not supporting it. Most of human resource planning data especially thatbased on the forecasting demand, faces lack of support from top management due to the fact that theyare irrelevant to the changing technology and economic trend since they rely on the past experience.Organizations overambitious also can be considered as the problem and challenge that is possessedby human resource planning in Tanzania. Management and its actors within an organization foundthemselves making too huge work planning which needs a big number of employees during itsimplementation. So failure to reach such targets leave a large number of employees who wereemployed to perform a certain task with nothing to do in an organization. Example a manufacturefirm which have the mean production of 1000 tons of flower every year within ten years, may overplan by aiming at producing 3000 tons for the coming future, this will need also an increase ofmanpower so as to reach its target. So when it will happen that the firm fail to produce such amountdue to over planning then there will be a large number of employees who have nothing to do in anorganization.Failure to integrate human resource planning with organizations core strategies and objectives alsoproved to be a problem during forecasting human resource demand. Job objectives, organizationsstrategies, mission and vision of an organization together with organizations work load, decide the
manpower demands in an organization. So there must be straight integration between humanresource planning and organization goals and objectives so as to decide the quality and quantity ofindividuals that an organization is going to hire. This is not the case in most of Tanzaniansorganization whereby human resource department works as an independent department with nolinkage with other departments such as finance, sells and planning board meetings. So due to thissituation perfection in human resource planning getting harder and harder.Poor knowledge of managers in making organization planning also is another problem inforecasting human resource; Human resource planning today is more likely to concentrate onwhat skills will be needed in the future, and may do no more than provide a broad indication ofthe numbers required in the longer term, although in some circumstances it might involvemaking short term forecasts when it is possible to predict activity levels and skills requirementswith a reasonable degree of accuracy. Such predictions will often be based on broad scenariosrather than on specific supply and demand forecasts.Poor in making scenario planning. A scenario can be defined as ‘an imagined sequence of futureevents’ (Oxford English Dictionary). Scenario planning is simply a more or less formalizedprocess for establishing a view about any changes that can be foreseen to the scale and type ofactivities in the organization and to its structure, and for identifying any external environmentalchanges that are likely to affect it. The aim is to obtain a better understanding of the possiblesituations that may have to be dealt with in the future. So by having poor or not having scenarioplanning, managers in human resource planning finds it hard to make future planning of anorganization and great failure in forecasting manpower demand in an organization hence losseither through overstaffing or understaffing.In summation, All management is about decision-making in an environment of risk anduncertainty. Effective management aims to reduce the risk and uncertainty as far as this ispossible in an imperfect world by the acquisition of the best available information and the use ofa system. Improved HR information systems mean there is no reason why data that drivesdecisions on human resource planning should not be made now, as we argued in our discussion.
Accurate data and conceptual skill is the best solution for the problem in forecasting humanresource demand.
Reference;Gupta, C. B,( 2009 ) 13th ed Management theory and practice, Sultan Chand & sons, New DelhiMilkovich B, (2004) 5th ed Human resource management, business publication inc, New DelhiMichael armstrong, (2006) 10th ed A hand book of human resource management practice, Koganpage limited. London