Informa Telecoms & Media’s top 10 picks for MWC 2012
Mobile World CongressFact Pack2012
Hear from our analysts during Mobile World CongressInforma Telecoms & Media has a team of 20 senior analysts attending Mobile World Congress this year. Inbetween meetings, briefings, presentations (and queuing) they’ll be blogging and tweeting about the keydevelopments, trends and rumours. The following document outlines who will be attending and how youcan contact and follow them throughout the show.For the most up-to-date comment and opinion during the event please: • follow us on twitter @informatm (www.twitter.com/informatm) • follow our analyst blog (http://blogs.informatandm.com/) • join our LinkedIn group (www.informatm.com/linkedin) By joining our Analyst Community group you can read our latest comments and thoughts, take part in surveys, join Webinars, download exclusive research, as well as start and join discussions. Join now...www.informatm.com/linkedin You can either follow us collectively through @informatm or you can follow individual analysts. On the following pages you’ll find the twitter usernames for those active. Join now...www.twitter.com/informatm Sent out every two weeks, our Connect email highlights our latest comments, announcements and latest research connectwww.informatm.com/connectAbout Informa Telecoms & MediaInforma Telecoms & Media (www.informatandm.com) is the leading provider of business intelligence and strategicservices to the global telecoms and media markets.
Informa Telecoms & Media’s top 10 picks for thisyear’s Mobile World Congress 1 European operators will launch new IP voice and messaging services based on the RCSe standard and which, they hope, will combat the threat to their business posed by services such as What’sApp, iMessage and Viber. The extent to which these launches are supported by a wide range of devices is absolutely crucial to the success of RCS. 2 M2M technology will go mainstream at this year’s Mobile World Congress with the leading global infrastructure vendors parading their newly-found expertise in service management platforms. 3 Spanning both smartphones and tablets, the OS ecosystem and verticalization are becoming ever- more important, so expect more from Microsoft at MWC12 following last year’s marketing invasion by Android’s “little green men”. We also expect to hear an update on operators’ own platform strategies and whether there is any progress to report on the WAC initiative initially launched two years ago. 4 Momentum is gathering in the connected health market with an ever-growing range of new medical applications and devices both from established and new players. 5 The connected car is coming of age and the Mobile World Congress could see contract announcements between car OEMs, operators and providers of in-car communications and entertainment systems. 6 Small cells rather than just LTE will emerge as the key battleground for network infrastructure vendor solutions. The adoption of Carrier Wi-Fi will feature heavily. 7 The use of smartphones and tablets to connect to television sets will play a central role in the connected home of the future which will be a feature of handset vendors exhibition areas. 8 There will be no shortage of options for mobile operators shopping for solutions to manage the growth of data carried over their networks. Solutions will either a) enable operators (or users) to better understand what traffic they are carrying, b) provide tools and techniques for managing the traffic or c) support operators’ efforts to introduce new price plans for different services and applications. 9 Cloud technologies and services will dominate at this year’s event with the unveiling of new services for business and consumer markets.10 Customer experience management will be everywhere at Barcelona this year as BSS/OSS generally emerges as a key theme in next-generation network, multiple-service environments.
Operators and OTTDario Talmesio, Principal Analyst Area of expertise: Business models, operators strategies, market positioning, competitive monitoring, wholesale & MVNOs, retail strategies. Email: firstname.lastname@example.org Twitter: @dariotalmesioThe threat posed by providers of over-the-top voice and messaging services became a reality for mobileoperators in 2011. While Dutch operator KPN was the most vocal – and seemingly the most badly-affected –operator, a number of others have commented within the last six months on the reduction in SMS revenuesand traffic as a result of users migrating to other messaging services such as What’sApp and iMessage.At last year’s show, Europe’s “G5” group of operators – Telefonica, Vodafone, France Telecom, DeutscheTelekom and Telecom Italia – announced their commitment to RCSe, a new standard for operators’ own IPcommunications services.This year we are expecting operators to announce the commercial launch of these services. For thelaunches to be viable, we are expecting to see a number of handset manufacturers commit to supplyingRCS-enabled devices and for operators to offer them for free with specific mobile broadband price plans.However, Informa Telecoms & Media does not believe that RCSe will be the only competitive response to thepopularity of IP communications services. An alternative approach is for operators to partner with the OTT playersthemselves in the same way that operators, including 3, KDDI and Verizon, have partnered in the past with Skype. Informa estimates that every 10 percentage points increase in smartphone penetration could cost Western European operators US$1.19 billion in voice and messaging revenues and US$306 million for their Eastern European counterparts – between 0.5% and 0.6% of their service revenues from voice and messaging.P2P SMS and IM revenues, 2011-2016 SMS P2P IM P2P 120 100 Revenues (US$ bil.) 80 60 40 20 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016Source: Informa Telecoms & MediaTo download a 300dpi jpeg, click here. Please note, an EPS version is available upon request
Operators and mobile broadbandMark Newman, Chief Research Officer Area of expertise: Operator business models Email: email@example.com Twitter: @marknewmanManaging the growth of data on their networks is the biggest single challenge facing operators today.Informa Telecoms & Media is forecasting that traffic over cellular networks will grow by 62% per year over thenext five years. But the slowdown in revenue growth – numbers reported by operators over the last monthindicate that the telecoms service is flat in Europe – makes it difficult to for them to justify increases in capex.Operators are exploring a whole range of different approaches for managing and monetizing data traffic.Informa Telecoms & Media believes that this will be the biggest single trend coming out of the exhibitionfloor with an explosion of solutions aimed at the operator community. They will come under the followingcategories: • Services and applications to enable the end users to understand and control their data usage. • Deep packet inspection technologies to allow operators to gain visibility into traffic trends on their networks. • Initiatives from OEMs to manage data more efficiently. • Charging, rating and billing solutions to allow operators to introduce more dynamic, flexible price plans for data and value-added services. • Offload techniques including CDNs, optimization and Wi-Fi. Global mobile data traffic by service category 2011 and 2016 (MB mil.) Service Category Totals 2011 2016 P2P Messaging 153,170 448,019 A2P Messaging 5,353 21,864 P2A Messaging 42 142 Music 134,077 1,524,696 Games 192,530 2,331,068 Images 1,126 3,546 Video/TV 272,149 5,986,223 Gambling 1,820 11,814 Internet 2,782,428 25,872,237 LBS 11,123 127,491 Social Networking 159,969 1,510,667 Mobile Payments/Banking 34 299 Applications 734,978 11,433,235 E-Publications 505 6,946 Note: Excludes Wi-Fi traffic. Source: Informa Telecoms & Media
Operators and ecosystemsMalik Kamal-Saadi, Principal Analyst Area of expertise: Technology trends across mobile devices, networks, content and services. Email: firstname.lastname@example.org Twitter: @maliksaadiOperators are increasingly at the mercy of vendors and eco-system owners which are dictating thesmartphone roadmap according to their own plans and business models. Operators have attempted ona number of occasions to influence the design of devices through standardizing terminal software, mainlyAPIs, but have failed to push their own agendas to key vendors who are not necessarily incentivized tofollow these agendas.Informa Telecoms & Media believes that these new market dynamics could push operators to attempt toregain more control over the device value-chain. The creation of one or more neutral platforms could helpthem to achieve this goal and balance competition from alternative ecosystems. However, the challengehere is to win the support of device vendors and apps developers which have less incentive to supportsuch initiatives.We expect to see operators attempting to build on the Wholesale Applications Community (WAC) initiativelaunched two years ago, potentially with the support of an open-source community. This will likely buildon WAC APIs and may also use the framework developed for RCSe – a new standard for operators’ own IPcommunications services (see OTT and operators).Market share of handset shipments by OS, 2012 and 2016 2012 2016 56.3 60 50.2 50 Market share (%) 40 30 20 18.9 20 14.7 9.6 8.3 10.9 10 3.7 5 0.4 2 0 an t al d Sx nX S f so oi (Q O t To bi iO ) dr ro ry m An x e ic er Sy nu pl M kb Ap Li ac BlSource: Informa Telecoms & MediaTo download a 300dpi jpeg, click here. Please note, an EPS version is available upon request
Smart devices and OSDavid McQueen, Principal Analyst Area of expertise: Handset vendor strategies, device segmentation, smartphones, broadband devices. Email: email@example.comThe release of new smartphones will continue to dominate the Mobile World Congress. Informa Telecoms& Media estimates that smartphone sales grew 53.5% in 2011 - led by the Android OS - finishing the yearwith sales of 432 million, 34% of total mobile handset sales. Continued growth means that more than 1billion people will have a smartphone by 2013.The integration of LTE and NFC will be prevalent across all new smartphone and tablet launches this year. Astrong showing from Chinese vendors Huawei and ZTE will be another feature of the event. Spanning bothsmartphones and tablets, the OS ecosystem and verticalisation is becoming ever-more important, so expectmore from Microsoft at MWC12 following last year’s marketing invasion by Android’s “little green men”. Keyto success is a unified experience so also expect more devices showcasing the abilities of Android v4.0 IceCream Sandwich.The rise of the ‘super’ tablet will be a key theme at MWC as latest releases offer an improved performancewith multi-core processing power and faster reaction times on touchscreens. We will also see moreperipherals for tablets, mainly qwerty docking stations for improved battery life and usability. Also expectmore low-cost Android tablets from tier-2 OEMs. Smartphone penetration (% of population), selected markets 2011 and 2016 2011 2016 Brazil 14.19 40.43 China 5.64 20.93 France 31.32 69.45 Germany 32.65 73.69 India 2.68 12.53 Indonesia 3.39 20.92 Italy 40.62 74.43 Japan 14.26 82.87 Mexico 7.79 29.44 Nigeria 2.71 13.64 Pakistan 0.53 4.85 Russia 17.91 42.25 Saudi Arabia 25.01 48.63 South Africa 17.00 46.32 Spain 45.35 70.58 Turkey 9.62 34.87 UK 40.61 72.96 US 39.67 68.80 Source: Informa Telecoms & Media
Small cells and LTEDimitris Mavrakis, Principal Analyst Area of expertise: IMS, mobile access network technologies, femtocells, backhaul, network APIs. Email: firstname.lastname@example.org Twitter: @dmavrakisThis year will mark the first Mobile World Congress where operators and vendors will be discussing theirexperience with large scale, mass market LTE deployments. There are 51 commercial LTE networks globallyaccording to Informa Telecoms & Media, a number that is expected to more than double by end-2012.Tier-1 and smaller infrastructure vendors will continue to announce more advanced and cost-efficient LTEequipment, many of which will be in the form of small cells. Several vendors will now also actively includeWi-Fi in their infrastructure and many will bundle their traditional cellular equipment with Carrier Wi-Fito allow traffic offload between the two technologies. Informa Telecoms & Media also expects a flurry ofactivity around backhaul, where established and new entrants will announce faster technologies.However, the largest trend of the show is likely to be Carrier Wi-Fi, as operators start to realize that thetechnology is very complementary to LTE and can be used to offload indoor traffic while relieving outdoorLTE cells for outdoor traffic. A variety of vendors will offer equipment that allow operators to enhance andimprove the Wi-Fi user experience and in some cases even control it.LTE subscriptions by region US/Canada Middle East Europe: Western Europe: Eastern Asia Pacific Americas Africa 700 609.1 600 Subscriptions (mil.) 500 400 321.1 300 200 156.4 63.2 100 6.4 22.4 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016Source: Informa Telecoms & MediaTo download a 300dpi jpeg, click here. Please note, an EPS version is available upon request
OSS/BSSKris Szaniawski, Principal Analyst Area of expertise: Managed services, network vendor strategy. Email: email@example.com Twitter: @kszaniawskiOSS/BSS has increasingly moved center stage and this will be reflected in the attention paid to it inBarcelona this year. LTE, LTE-Advanced and high-speed IP-based network infrastructure all require a newgeneration of IT support systems and innovative business models to support them. Delivering serviceinnovation and business efficiencies will require a greater focus on policy-based online charging and morecomplex billing and rating functionality, as well as customer experience and business intelligence.Most of the major infrastructure vendors have been making customer experience announcements inrecent months, or at least rebranding existing solutions, and many plan to focus heavily on this theme inBarcelona. NSN, for one, will be making much of its Customer Experience Management (CEM) strategy.Meanwhile, Ericsson, which completed its Telcordia acquisition last month, is expected to flesh out some ofthe details of its OSS/BSS strategy.Managing multiple services effectively is incredibly complicated, involving a wide range of OSS/BSS, ITand network elements. Furthermore, the dividing lines between these are becoming even more blurredas vendors active in each of these domains move into each others spaces, as well as actively pursuingmanaged services, outsourcing and hosting opportunities. ITM is forecasting CAGR of 14% for managedOSS/BSS over the next five years.Managed OSS/BSS revenue forecasts, 2011-2016 4.0 3.7 3.5 3.1 Revenue (US$ bil.) 3.0 2.3 2.6 2.5 1.9 2.1 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016Source: Informa Telecoms & MediaTo download a 300dpi jpeg, click here. Please note, an EPS version is available upon request
Mobile content and servicesGuillermo Escofet, Senior Analyst Area of expertise: Mobile entertainment (music, games, TV & video), the mobile Web, application stores, location-based services, mobile advertising, mobile payments, social-networking. Email: firstname.lastname@example.orgThere will be a lot of noise around m-commerce at MWC, and much of it will continue to revolve aroundNFC. But the expectations for NFC will be more measured this year, as many issues continue to conspireagainst the smooth rollout of mobile contactless technology and services. Alternative point-of-sale mobilepayment solutions from bright new start-ups such as DigiMo will be grabbing a larger share of the limelightthan in previous years. Informa Telecoms & Media forecasts that mobile payments and banking will make upnearly a third of global mobile value-added revenues in 2016 – up from just below 10% in 2011.Another hot topic of discussion will be the extent to which mobile advertising will be adding to ordeducting from the revenue of online advertising brands such as Google and Facebook. Google’s latestfinancial results would indicate the latter is the case. After years of promising higher returns than onlineadvertising, it looks as if mobile advertising might be under-delivering. Apple certainly overestimatedhow much it could charge brands for campaigns on its in-app advertising service iAd. But as e-commerceextends further into mobile, the more attractive mobile will become to advertisers.Also at the show, it will be hard to get away from the numerous vendors peddling their latest wares forconnecting mobile devices to TVs, delivering over-the-top video to multiple screens and enabling mobileinteraction with TV content. Informa projects that video streaming will hog a third of data traffic generatedby mobile-phone users globally in 2016, but just 3% of mobile VAS revenues.Global mobile VAS revenues 2011 2016 Revenue: US$41.5 bil. Revenue: US$132.1 bil. A2P/P2A messaging Music Games Mobile payments/banking Images E-publications LBS (personal navigation) Video/TV Social networking Gambling Other 1.8% 9.5% 1.9% 2.7% 2.5% 1.5% 2.7% 1.6% 3.6% 2.9% 27.9% 31.5% 3.3% 6.6% 3.5% 9.5% 6.5% 9.0% 16.3% 19.8% 21.1% 14.5%Note: Figures exclude advertising and enterprise VAS.Source: Informa Telecoms & MediaTo download a 300dpi jpeg, click here. Please note, an EPS version is available upon request
M2MJamie Moss, Senior Analyst Area of expertise: Machine-to-machine (M2M), location-based services, mobile Internet. Email: email@example.com Twitter: @jamie_j_mossM2M will move center stage at this year’s Mobile World Congress and will feature prominently inannouncements from the Tier-1 operator and vendor community.This will be the first year that the leading wireless infrastructure vendors are able to demonstrate a strongcapability in service-management platforms – that part of an M2M solution that allows a service providerto offer bespoke rates and provide remote monitoring and management. Until now, operators have eitherdeveloped such platforms in-house or have used specialized M2M technology providers.Healthcare, automotive and security are the three M2M verticals that will feature most prominently atBarcelona this year. Connected cars and homes have been features of previous years’ events but this yearcould see the emergence of viable business models and contracts from automotive OEMs.Future value shift in M2M communications 2012 2015 Decision support, reports and alerts, Business intelligence analytics Service level manag Security, demand response, ement performance management Professional services Consulting, integration, Connectiv software development M2M revenue ity Communications services, distribution associated communications hardwareSource: Informa Telecoms & MediaTo download a 300dpi jpeg, click here. Please note, an EPS version is available upon request
Connected homeAndrew Ladbrook, Senior Analyst Area of expertise: Connected home devices, connected home technologies, CE manufacturer’s strategies in the home. Email: firstname.lastname@example.org Twitter: @AndrewLadbrookSmartphones have quickly become as much of a feature of the connected home as Wi-Fi-enabled videoconsumption devices and controllers for connected devices such as smart TVs.Operators are now keen to integrate smartphones further into their connected-home strategies. But to doso they need new Wi-Fi standards to resolve some of the technical demands caused by the proliferationof Wi-Fi enabled devices. And in terms of multi-screen strategies, operators are still trying to figure outprecisely what sort of services and functionalities they can offer.Mobile devices are also playing a wider role in the home with applications that replace the traditionalremote control for smart TVs. They are also enabling digital music to break out of the PC and go multiroom,acting as a control for devices including Sonos and Apple’s Airplay. But there are still big questions as towhether the role of smartphones in the connected home is to increase, what are the best practices forcontrol apps, and, in the long run, whether any of the major platforms will have an advantage over any ofthe others.Top-line connected device installed base Connected TV Connected Blu-ray players Games console Hybrid set-top box Media Streaming devices 2.0 1,828 1,398 Installed devices (bil.) 1.5 1,037 1.0 742 508 0.5 338 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016Source: Informa Telecoms & MediaTo download a 300dpi jpeg, click here. Please note, an EPS version is available upon request
Mobile healthSheridan Nye, Senior Analyst Area of expertise: M2M, communications in transport, energy, health and public safety Email: email@example.com Twitter: @sheridannyeConnected Health is the most prominent of the vertical sectors at Mobile World Congress 2012, withpresentations from emerging and developed markets scheduled throughout the show.Healthcare plays to the strengths of telecoms operators, requiring secure connectivity, high bandwidthfor images, cloud-based service delivery, mobility and collaboration solutions. An industry-wide globalsurvey conducted by Informa Telecoms & Media in late 2011 revealed that 24% of communications serviceproviders are actively targeting the healthcare sector for top-line growth. But while traditional networkingand IT are well established, mobile health applications are still searching for acceptance and scale.Telehealth and telecare solutions are enablers of transformation in healthcare delivery, promising to slashthe cost of chronic disease management and long-term social care. But formidable regulatory and culturalbarriers create uncertain market conditions in many countries. The cost of applications development andrigorous testing are an additional challenge for service providers. Selected telehealth & telecare services Communications service provider Brand name Service Telecom Italia Home Doctor In-home monitoring of patients with chronic disease Telefonica Rehabitic Remote monitoring of patients physio-therapy programme AT&T mHealth Manager Home monitoring of diabetes (pilot) Sprint (with American TeleCare, Inc) ATI Remote consultations Source: Informa Telecoms & Media
CloudCamille Mendler, Principal Analyst Area of expertise: Managed services, cloud computing, Ethernet, partnering and competitive analysis. Email: firstname.lastname@example.org Twitter: @cmendlerThis year, the GSMA’s prestigious Global Mobile Awards inaugurate a Best Cloud Technology category.As a judge for this industry accolade, Informa Telecoms & Media can testify to the cloud’s extraordinaryinnovative power viewed from the entries received.Informa will be looking for cloud enablement vendors in Barcelona to support operators in their efforts to: • Secure core income: Cloud services must drive usage of broadband networks. • Boost customer loyalty: Cloud services must help entice customers to stay loyal. • Cut costs: Cloud services must reduce operators’ operational costs.Informa’s Telecom Cloud Monitor, which tracks more than 120 operators, shows that 170 cloud serviceswere launched in 2011.Telecom cloud service launches in 2011 Cloud services launched by type Customer segments targeted in service launches Consumers IaaS 5% 18% Vertical industries Other 10% 30% SMEs 44% Storage, back up and restore 16% Enterprises Security 41% 9% Unified communications and collaboration Business apps suite 15% 14%Note: n=170 new services launched in 2011Source: Informa Telecoms & MediaTo download a 300dpi jpeg, click here. Please note, an EPS version is available upon request
All analysts featured in this fact pack and those listed below will be attending this year’s event.Andy Castonguay, Principal Analyst Gareth Sims, Head of Forecasting Area of expertise: Handset vendor and Area of expertise: Strategic business operator strategies, mobile device retail modelling, Traffic forecasting, and distribution strategies, mobile Future network investment analysis, transactions ecosystem, M2M business Customer lifetime value strategies, application development Email: email@example.com ecosystem. Twitter: @gsims75 Email: firstname.lastname@example.orgJulian Bright, Senior Analyst Julio Puschel, Principal Analyst Area of expertise: Next-generation Area of expertise: Mobile operator mobile networks and operator strategy, strategies, LTE, convergence, Customer mobile broadband, WiMAX. loyalty and experience management, Email: julian.bright @informa.com mobile broadband, off-loading strategies, retail, wholesale. Twitter: @julianbright Email: email@example.com Twitter: @jpuschelNick Jotischky, Principal Analyst Panos Loukos, Senior Analyst Area of expertise: MEA/APAC regional Area of expertise: Mobile operator trends, emerging market innovation, strategies mobile operator strategies, regional Email: firstname.lastname@example.org mobile data services, connecting rural communities. Email: email@example.comPamela Clark-Dickson, Senior Analyst Stephen Wilson, Senior Analyst Area of expertise: Mobile messaging, Area of expertise: Broadband, cable and Mobile Internet and mobile enterprise IPTV markets of Central/Eastern Europe Email: pamela.clark-dickson@informa. Email: firstname.lastname@example.org com Twitter: @PamelaC_DThomas Wehmeier, Principal Analyst Area of expertise: Future voice and data pricing strategies, Yield management, Customer economics and profitability, Profitable smartphone strategies for operators, LTE launch strategies, Wi-Fi business models Email: email@example.com Twitter: @twehmeier