SlideShare a Scribd company logo
1 of 37
Download to read offline
THE NEW PRODUCT
DEVELOPMENT ECOSYSTEM
HOW DESIGN WILL REINVENT
MANUFACTURING




                       Mike Kuniavsky
                       October 18, 2012
                 Designers and Geeks SF
First, let me tell you a bit about my background.
I’m a user experience designer. I was one of the
first professional Web designers in 1993, where I
was lucky enough to be present for the birth of
such things as the online shopping cart and the
search engine. This is the navigation for a hot
sauce shopping site I designed in 1994.
I’m proud of the fact that 16 years later
they were still using the same visual
identity. These were some of the oldest
pixels on the Web.
Here’s one of my UI designs
for the advanced search for
HotBot, an early search
engine, from 1997. If you’re
wondering why Google’s
front page is no minimal, I
think it was because we were
doing this.
Since then I’ve consulted on
the user experience design of
dozens, maybe hundreds of
web sites. Here’s one for
credit.com, who were
fantastic clients a couple of
years ago.
I sat out the first dotcom crash
writing a book based on the work I
had been doing. It’s a cookbook of
user research methods. It came out
in 2003 and the second edition just
came out last month. Buy a copy for
everyone on your team!
And 2001 I co-founded a design and
consulting company called Adaptive
Path.
I left the Web behind in
2004 and founded a
company with Tod E. Kurt
called ThingM in 2006.
ThingM is a micro-OEM and an R&D lab. We design and
manufacture a range of smart LEDs for architects, industrial
designers and hackers. Our products appear on everything from
flying robots to Lady Gaga’s stage show. This is an RFID wine
rack that we did about four years ago. The different light colors
represent different facets of information that’s pulled down from a
cloud-based service, such as current market price. This is a
capacitive sensing kitchen cabinet knob we did two years ago. It
glows when you touch it to creates a little bit of magic in your
everyday environment and was an exploration in making a digital
product that would still be useful 20 years after it was made.
In 2010 I wrote a book on the user
experience design of ubiquitous
computing devices, which I define as
things that do information processing
and networking, but are not
experienced as general purpose
computing or communication
devices.
I also organize an
annual summit of
people developing
hardware design tools
for non-engineers.
However, ThingM, books and
conferences are not my day job.
They’re entertaining sidelines. My
primary day job is as an
innovation and user experience
design consultant focusing on the
design of digital consumer
products. Here are some I’ve
worked on for Yamaha, Whirlpool
and Qualcomm.
The last couple of years my
clients have been large
consumer electronics
companies. I’ve worked
with them to design new
products and services and
to help them create more
user centered and company
cultures. I can’t give you
any details, but I’ll tell you
that big data analytics, real-
time image recognition,
distributed processing, and
machine learning are pretty
awesome.
This spring I finally got to do a project I
can talk about. I worked with Sifteo, the
game company, to design all of the non-
game UX of their second generation
platform. It was a great project. Stock up
on these for Christmas.
PROLOGUE: UNITS OF WORK
Let me start with a little history of manufacturing efficiency. Now this is only barely history, since I’m not a historian, but
I’ve been reading about the history of technology for a couple of years and I came up with this model for understanding
several trends in manufacturing, and I think it has some face validity.

If you look at how many things you could produce from one unit of work, you see an interesting curve. For most of the last ten
                      # of things from 1 unit of work
thousand or however many years, when you put one unit of work into a project, you got roughly one thing out of it. I realize
            etc
“a unit of work” is somewhat imprecise, but bear with me. During this period you see some gains in efficiency through tools
like the potter’s wheel, the plow, the horse, the lever, fire, but those efficiencies were, roughly speaking linear. No one had
the capability to make 10,000 cooking pots in a day. Then this thing happens. James Watt’s patent on the improvement to
Newcomen’s steam engine expires in 1800. Boom. The Industrial Revolution. Exponential growth in the efficiency of
           10K
production. 10,000 cooking pots a day is easy. That’s followed by steady increases in efficiency until we get to today’s
industrial society.

OK, that’s fairly familiar. Now, let’s look at a related curve, the number of units of work to make the FIRST thing. Making
         1000
the first thing of any set is hard. You become efficient later on, but the first time is not efficient. For most of history, that’s
about one unit of work. And the funny thing about the Industrial Revolution is that as it made it much easier to make many
things, it made it much harder to make that first thing. Mass produced objects are really complex, they require you to make
           100
the tools that make the tools that make the end product. It’s no longer a process that a single person, or even a small
workshop, can even afford to do time, money, or knowlege-wise. It requires a lot of expertise to be acquired and then
consolidated into a single geographic location. Here is our familiar experience of manufactured products: pick nearly
everything you own or see and it’s almost impossibly complex for you to make one.
            10
And then this other thing happens. In October 2009 Stratasys’ core patent on computer controlled additive manufacturing
expires. Boom. The cost of making the first thing starts to plummet while the cost of making lots of things stays the same.
             1
The relationship between these two trends is what makes what I’m about to tell you about possible.

                                                      # units of work to make the first thing
                                          1800
                                  Watt’s patent
                                        expires
                Anitquity




                                                                                          patent
                                                                                         expires
                                                                                           2009




                                                                                                               y
                                                                                                            Toda
                                                                                       Stratasys
That’s where
   this comes
   from.




THE NEW PRODUCT
DEVELOPMENT ECOSYSTEM
AMAZON 2020

Imagine Amazon 8 years from now. It looks
like this. Yes, it looks exactly like the
Amazon today. It has all of the familiar ways
to discover new products, to compare them,
to see what people think of them, to see what
goes with what. It has wish lists, Gold Boxes,
the whole thing. But there’s a crucial
difference. Instead of Amazon being the front
end to a fulfillment system, as it is today, the
Amazon of 2020 is the front end to a set of
factories.
The back end doesn’t look like UPS, but Ford Motor
Company. When you click on on buy you start a
manufacturing process at the factory nearest you,
instead of a delivery process from a warehouse far
away.
I know what you’re thinking: “Mike just saw a MakerBot and got all
excited. We’ve heard this all before, it’s called mass customization, and
it’s never worked out.” Why talk about this again? Because I think that the
presentation of mass customization as “configurators for everything” (such
as this 1998 project from Levi’s) missed the point. That totally gets the
user motivation wrong: most people don’t want to be designers of
everything, they want to design a couple of things, but be consumers of the
rest. Some people want to make their own clothes, but those people
typically don’t build their own cars, and vice versa. Most people have
better things to do than figure out what colors and patterns look good
together, what makes them look sexy or powerful, how much firmware will
fit into the onboard memory. They’re busy. They want someone who is a

    MASS CUSTOMIZATION IS
professional to do that research, to think really hard about what they need,
to be really fluent in the tools that make it good, then to create a solution.
    SO 1996!
I’m also not talking about desktop
           manufacturing. As much as all us
           geeks want a Star Trek replicator,
           it’s not that useful in practice. We
           just don’t need that much new stuff
           all the time. Paper printers are
           useful because they represent high
           density information that fits into a
           rich existing culture of information
           use, and even they’re not used
           nearly as much as ecommerce sites.
           Outside of work, people probably
           shop a lot more than they print.
COPY SHOPS FOR 3D AND
DESKTOP MANUFACTURING?
I think more importantly, both mass customization and
2020? fabrication imagine a new world that’s different
 desktop
 than ours. I have nothing against envisioning new worlds
 and working toward their creation—that’s one of the
 things I do for my clients—but my experience has taught
 me that creating new worlds, changing the behavior of
 millions of people, is really hard and takes a really long
 time. If we look to a world 8 years into the future, odds
 are that it’s not going to have changed that much, the
 odds are that most of us are not going to have a whole
 bunch more time on our hands to become mechanical
 engineers, electrical engineers, software engineers, and
 material scientists, as much as we’d like to.

Makerbot photo by Scott Beale
2020

2020 will actually probably look and works
exactly like our world today, when seen
from the outside. It’ll still be driven by the
thrill of finding something awesome when
you’re bored surfing the Internet and then
making it yours by buying it. The
relationship between the consumer and
designer will remain intact. Designers still
design, ecommerce sites still help people
find stuff they like, people still buy.
However, there will be a crucial
difference behind the scenes, and
it will be this difference that
changes our world from one of
centralized warehouses to a
world of distributed factories.
ANALYTICS   The difference is analytics. When you order
            from the Amazon of 2020 a counter is
            incremented that registers that you, a human
            being with a set of well-known behaviors
            and a demographic background, decided to
            buy this specific version of this specific idea.
            Moreover, since the world of 2020 is a world
            of ubiquitous computing, every product has a
            small bit of digital hardware in it that tracks
            how the product is used and, with your
            implicit permission, sends that information
            back to a central server, which aggregates
            and anonymizes the results.

            This is of course exactly how large-scale
            Web design works, but now we will map it to
            all products.
FEEDBACK LOOPS
             When you have rapid, cheap, distributed low-
             volume manufacturing capability AND real-
             time analytics you have a new way of designing
        1957 products. You can take those Industrial Age
             design processes that took years to test
             hypotheses, and you can speed them up by
             orders of magnitude.

        1958 Image:
             http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Tailfin
             s-evolution-1957-1959.jpg


        1959
Tight loop iteration between an idea and
Blank’s Customer discovery
           market validation of that idea is the core of
           Eric Ries’ Lean Startup approach. This is a
           slide from Steve Blank, who is the patron
           saint of Lean Startup, that illustrates this
           basic idea.

           My vision--MY hypothesis--is that it’s
           possible to do this with ANYTHING by
           applying the ideas, practices and
           technologies we developed for the Net to
           everything else.
LOW Volume MANUFACTURING and Assembly


  Let’s start by assuming we have low volume
  digital manufacturing, such as this Form1
  printer that just got funded through
  Kickstarter. We know that’s coming.
LOW VOLUME piece is hypothesis testing. How do you
     The next SOCIAL COMMERCE
       validate your idea without investing a lot in
       manufacturing? Well, that component is also coming
       online.

       Even though they sometimes deny it, Kickstarter is a
       catalog for products that don't exist yet. It gives
       developers feedback about the popularity of their
       idea and teaches them how to position it for a market
       before they’ve made a single final product. It
       provides two kinds of hypothesis testing: do people
       even want your idea? and what do they say they want
       it for?
LOW VOLUME SOCIAL COMMERCE


  Etsy allows very small run electronic products (as long as
  they’re made of felt).
LOW VOLUME SOCIAL COMMERCE

 Even fab.com, which sells limited-edition high design
 products like rugs and backpacks, sells small run
 electronics.
LoW volume social commerce

Here’s a new store opening on Valencia in about a month called Dijital
Fix. They are a New York-based boutique specializing in limited-run
electronics.

These channels are immature, but they’re becoming increasingly
popular. In effect, they’re doing an end run around the traditional
consumer electronic sales channels--at the same time that Dijital Fix is
opening new stores Best Buy is struggling—and giving developers
direct access to their customers so they can test their product
hypotheses directly.

This is bringing product development closer to what we’ve become
accustomed to when deploying software on the Web.
COLLABORATIVE DESIGN TOOLS
The key missing piece we still need to borrow from software is
distributed collaborative design tools. To make better hypotheses
we need to be able to take advantage of all of those specialized
skills—all the different kinds of engineering—wherever they are,
and to work together to create a shared understanding of what that
hypothesis, that product, is.

For purely digital products we have Github, Basecamp, WebEx,
Balsamiq and similar products, but the physical world is way
behind. Commercial CAD systems are huge and incredibly
difficult to learn. Product Lifecycle Management systems assume
that you’re always building a commercial airplane, and are also
insanely complex.
COLLABORATIVE DESIGN TOOLS
We are getting new tools, Autodesk’s 123D, Ponoko has
publishing tools, you can kind of fork projects on Thingiverse.
But these tools are really immature.

Sunglass just pivoted a couple of weeks ago from being an online
CAD system to being a “Github for 3D.” When these products
mature, this is going to open creative possibilities immensely.

But it’s going to take time. Github got to where it is through an
evolution of tools and practices that began with makefiles. The
physical world isn’t even at the makefile stage.
To me, the whole ecosystem looks like this. Here come the buzz words, so excuse me in advance.
•Digital fabrication, we know what that is. It will allow us to make all kinds of things in small batches.

     DIGITAL FABRICATION
•Ubiquitous Computing and the Internet of Things is leading to everyday objects that send a stream of telemetry when we bring them home.
They have an information shadow in the cloud that can be data mined.


     +
•Big Data Analytics crunches all of that data to create information about people’s behavior.
•Social commerce creates sales channels that sell small numbers of products by finding niche markets and letting them market to each other
•And finally, cloud-based design tools will allow designers and engineers to collaborate on the distributed development of physical products.


     UBICOMP/IOT
This is my ecosystem vision: a world where design directly drives product creation, and where data informs design. This is a world where
products are made in small numbers only when they are requested. They are made locally, with local materials and workers, while at the same

     +
time being able to use design and engineering talent from anywhere on earth. In other words, they use the best qualities of both atoms and bits:
atoms are available everywhere, bits travel fast. Designers in this vision add hypotheses testing against the actual market to their toolbox of
design methods.

     BIG DATA ANALYTICS
In the full pipe dream, this means we use fewer natural resources, take full advantage of talented people wherever they are, create only products


     +
in large quantities that people need and want, meet the needs of tiny niche audiences, while still taking advantage of the infinite variety implicit
in digital manufacturing technologies. Whew!



     SOCIAL COMMERCE
     +
     CLOUD-BASED DESIGN TOOLS
     =
     THE NEW PRODUCT
     DEVELOPMENT ECOSYSTEM
I intend to make this vision my next focus as a designer and
   CONCLUSION
entrepreneur. At ThingM we just did the first iteration on Kickstarter
of a product we hope will become different and more interesting as
we iterate on it. It’s the world’s best indicator light. It’s a highly
configurable USB LED and it gives you peripheral awareness of
things that are happening on the Net and your local machine. You
can pre-order one from us today.

However, I don’t expect that we will be able to do all of this by
ourselves.

I need your help: tell me what I don’t know, where I’m wrong. Tell
me who I should talk to and where the opportunities are.

I think this will change the world. I want to change the world.
               Pre-order at shop.thingm.com
Interested? Talk to me.
Mike Kuniavsky
mikek@thingm.com

More Related Content

What's hot

The changing nature of things: getting ready for a connected world.
The changing nature of things: getting ready for a connected world.The changing nature of things: getting ready for a connected world.
The changing nature of things: getting ready for a connected world.Alexandra Deschamps-Sonsino
 
Right here, right now — when technology, interaction design and fashion converge
Right here, right now — when technology, interaction design and fashion convergeRight here, right now — when technology, interaction design and fashion converge
Right here, right now — when technology, interaction design and fashion convergeSami Niemelä
 
The "Other" Tech Valley: Boston’s Route 128
The "Other" Tech Valley: Boston’s Route 128The "Other" Tech Valley: Boston’s Route 128
The "Other" Tech Valley: Boston’s Route 128Meredith Leigh Pratt
 
The Maker Movement by @boardofinno
The Maker Movement by @boardofinnoThe Maker Movement by @boardofinno
The Maker Movement by @boardofinnoBoard of Innovation
 
Présentation du Keynote du jeudi 20 octobre 2016 - M. Paul Ramsey
Présentation du Keynote du jeudi 20 octobre 2016 - M. Paul RamseyPrésentation du Keynote du jeudi 20 octobre 2016 - M. Paul Ramsey
Présentation du Keynote du jeudi 20 octobre 2016 - M. Paul RamseyACSG Section Montréal
 
Chapter 9 technology_impact_on_business
Chapter 9 technology_impact_on_businessChapter 9 technology_impact_on_business
Chapter 9 technology_impact_on_businessJonah Howard
 
Week 3 IxD History: Computing Technology in the Workplace
Week 3 IxD History: Computing Technology in the WorkplaceWeek 3 IxD History: Computing Technology in the Workplace
Week 3 IxD History: Computing Technology in the WorkplaceKaren McGrane
 
3D Printed Neighborhood Coming to California
 3D Printed Neighborhood Coming to California  3D Printed Neighborhood Coming to California
3D Printed Neighborhood Coming to California W Darrow Fiedler
 
Disruptive innovation, smartphones and the decline of Nokia
Disruptive innovation, smartphones and the decline of NokiaDisruptive innovation, smartphones and the decline of Nokia
Disruptive innovation, smartphones and the decline of NokiaChris Sandström
 
Web 2.0 Massive Slide Deck Dec 2006
Web 2.0 Massive Slide Deck Dec 2006Web 2.0 Massive Slide Deck Dec 2006
Web 2.0 Massive Slide Deck Dec 2006troyangrignon
 
Making Money From Open Source Hardware
Making Money From Open Source HardwareMaking Money From Open Source Hardware
Making Money From Open Source HardwareDavid Mellis
 
Maker Movement – Peter Troxler
Maker Movement – Peter TroxlerMaker Movement – Peter Troxler
Maker Movement – Peter TroxlerEngage Rotterdam
 
The internet is broken and you are gonna fix it for Sintlucas
The internet is broken and you are gonna fix it for SintlucasThe internet is broken and you are gonna fix it for Sintlucas
The internet is broken and you are gonna fix it for SintlucasPolle de Maagt
 
Hasselblad Electronic Imaging
Hasselblad Electronic ImagingHasselblad Electronic Imaging
Hasselblad Electronic ImagingChris Sandström
 
The Future Of Media Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist @ Plugg 2009
The Future Of Media Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist @ Plugg 2009The Future Of Media Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist @ Plugg 2009
The Future Of Media Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist @ Plugg 2009Gerd Leonhard
 

What's hot (19)

The changing nature of things: getting ready for a connected world.
The changing nature of things: getting ready for a connected world.The changing nature of things: getting ready for a connected world.
The changing nature of things: getting ready for a connected world.
 
L10 The Innovator's Dilemma
L10 The Innovator's DilemmaL10 The Innovator's Dilemma
L10 The Innovator's Dilemma
 
Better living through connected objects
Better living through connected objects Better living through connected objects
Better living through connected objects
 
Right here, right now — when technology, interaction design and fashion converge
Right here, right now — when technology, interaction design and fashion convergeRight here, right now — when technology, interaction design and fashion converge
Right here, right now — when technology, interaction design and fashion converge
 
The "Other" Tech Valley: Boston’s Route 128
The "Other" Tech Valley: Boston’s Route 128The "Other" Tech Valley: Boston’s Route 128
The "Other" Tech Valley: Boston’s Route 128
 
The Maker Movement by @boardofinno
The Maker Movement by @boardofinnoThe Maker Movement by @boardofinno
The Maker Movement by @boardofinno
 
L07 Becoming Invisible
L07 Becoming InvisibleL07 Becoming Invisible
L07 Becoming Invisible
 
Présentation du Keynote du jeudi 20 octobre 2016 - M. Paul Ramsey
Présentation du Keynote du jeudi 20 octobre 2016 - M. Paul RamseyPrésentation du Keynote du jeudi 20 octobre 2016 - M. Paul Ramsey
Présentation du Keynote du jeudi 20 octobre 2016 - M. Paul Ramsey
 
Malmo2009
Malmo2009Malmo2009
Malmo2009
 
Chapter 9 technology_impact_on_business
Chapter 9 technology_impact_on_businessChapter 9 technology_impact_on_business
Chapter 9 technology_impact_on_business
 
Week 3 IxD History: Computing Technology in the Workplace
Week 3 IxD History: Computing Technology in the WorkplaceWeek 3 IxD History: Computing Technology in the Workplace
Week 3 IxD History: Computing Technology in the Workplace
 
3D Printed Neighborhood Coming to California
 3D Printed Neighborhood Coming to California  3D Printed Neighborhood Coming to California
3D Printed Neighborhood Coming to California
 
Disruptive innovation, smartphones and the decline of Nokia
Disruptive innovation, smartphones and the decline of NokiaDisruptive innovation, smartphones and the decline of Nokia
Disruptive innovation, smartphones and the decline of Nokia
 
Web 2.0 Massive Slide Deck Dec 2006
Web 2.0 Massive Slide Deck Dec 2006Web 2.0 Massive Slide Deck Dec 2006
Web 2.0 Massive Slide Deck Dec 2006
 
Making Money From Open Source Hardware
Making Money From Open Source HardwareMaking Money From Open Source Hardware
Making Money From Open Source Hardware
 
Maker Movement – Peter Troxler
Maker Movement – Peter TroxlerMaker Movement – Peter Troxler
Maker Movement – Peter Troxler
 
The internet is broken and you are gonna fix it for Sintlucas
The internet is broken and you are gonna fix it for SintlucasThe internet is broken and you are gonna fix it for Sintlucas
The internet is broken and you are gonna fix it for Sintlucas
 
Hasselblad Electronic Imaging
Hasselblad Electronic ImagingHasselblad Electronic Imaging
Hasselblad Electronic Imaging
 
The Future Of Media Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist @ Plugg 2009
The Future Of Media Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist @ Plugg 2009The Future Of Media Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist @ Plugg 2009
The Future Of Media Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist @ Plugg 2009
 

Viewers also liked

Writing code for others
Writing code for othersWriting code for others
Writing code for othersAmol Pujari
 
How I learned to stop worrying and love the cloud
How I learned to stop worrying and love the cloudHow I learned to stop worrying and love the cloud
How I learned to stop worrying and love the cloudShlomo Swidler
 
The Internet of Things to Come: elements of a ubiquitous computing innovation...
The Internet of Things to Come: elements of a ubiquitous computing innovation...The Internet of Things to Come: elements of a ubiquitous computing innovation...
The Internet of Things to Come: elements of a ubiquitous computing innovation...Mike Kuniavsky
 
Somatic Data Perception: Sensing Information Shadows
Somatic Data Perception: Sensing Information ShadowsSomatic Data Perception: Sensing Information Shadows
Somatic Data Perception: Sensing Information ShadowsMike Kuniavsky
 
Unintended Consequences: design [in|for|and] the age of ubiquitous computing
Unintended Consequences: design [in|for|and] the age of ubiquitous computingUnintended Consequences: design [in|for|and] the age of ubiquitous computing
Unintended Consequences: design [in|for|and] the age of ubiquitous computingMike Kuniavsky
 
Educational design and innovative pedagogies for open and online teaching and...
Educational design and innovative pedagogies for open and online teaching and...Educational design and innovative pedagogies for open and online teaching and...
Educational design and innovative pedagogies for open and online teaching and...Patrick McAndrew
 
The Internet of People: Integrating IoT Technologies is Not a Technical Probl...
The Internet of People: Integrating IoT Technologies is Not a Technical Probl...The Internet of People: Integrating IoT Technologies is Not a Technical Probl...
The Internet of People: Integrating IoT Technologies is Not a Technical Probl...Mike Kuniavsky
 
Designing Smart Things: user experience design for networked devices
Designing Smart Things: user experience design for networked devicesDesigning Smart Things: user experience design for networked devices
Designing Smart Things: user experience design for networked devicesMike Kuniavsky
 
What Open Source and Open Data Mean for Tomorrow's Transportation Agencies
What Open Source and Open Data Mean for Tomorrow's Transportation AgenciesWhat Open Source and Open Data Mean for Tomorrow's Transportation Agencies
What Open Source and Open Data Mean for Tomorrow's Transportation AgenciesOpenPlans
 
Open 311: A Platform for a Participatory Civic Infrastructure
Open 311: A Platform for a Participatory Civic InfrastructureOpen 311: A Platform for a Participatory Civic Infrastructure
Open 311: A Platform for a Participatory Civic InfrastructureOpenPlans
 
Lean hardware startups: elements of a ubiquitous computing innovation ecosystem
Lean hardware startups: elements of a ubiquitous computing innovation ecosystemLean hardware startups: elements of a ubiquitous computing innovation ecosystem
Lean hardware startups: elements of a ubiquitous computing innovation ecosystemMike Kuniavsky
 
Open Course Data at Loughborough University
Open Course Data at Loughborough UniversityOpen Course Data at Loughborough University
Open Course Data at Loughborough UniversityMartin Hamilton
 
RESS - Responsive Web Design + Serverside components
RESS - Responsive Web Design + Serverside componentsRESS - Responsive Web Design + Serverside components
RESS - Responsive Web Design + Serverside componentsAnders Andersen
 
Hardware Startups: The VC Perspective
Hardware Startups: The VC PerspectiveHardware Startups: The VC Perspective
Hardware Startups: The VC PerspectiveMatt Turck
 

Viewers also liked (15)

Writing code for others
Writing code for othersWriting code for others
Writing code for others
 
How I learned to stop worrying and love the cloud
How I learned to stop worrying and love the cloudHow I learned to stop worrying and love the cloud
How I learned to stop worrying and love the cloud
 
The Internet of Things to Come: elements of a ubiquitous computing innovation...
The Internet of Things to Come: elements of a ubiquitous computing innovation...The Internet of Things to Come: elements of a ubiquitous computing innovation...
The Internet of Things to Come: elements of a ubiquitous computing innovation...
 
Somatic Data Perception: Sensing Information Shadows
Somatic Data Perception: Sensing Information ShadowsSomatic Data Perception: Sensing Information Shadows
Somatic Data Perception: Sensing Information Shadows
 
Unintended Consequences: design [in|for|and] the age of ubiquitous computing
Unintended Consequences: design [in|for|and] the age of ubiquitous computingUnintended Consequences: design [in|for|and] the age of ubiquitous computing
Unintended Consequences: design [in|for|and] the age of ubiquitous computing
 
Educational design and innovative pedagogies for open and online teaching and...
Educational design and innovative pedagogies for open and online teaching and...Educational design and innovative pedagogies for open and online teaching and...
Educational design and innovative pedagogies for open and online teaching and...
 
The Internet of People: Integrating IoT Technologies is Not a Technical Probl...
The Internet of People: Integrating IoT Technologies is Not a Technical Probl...The Internet of People: Integrating IoT Technologies is Not a Technical Probl...
The Internet of People: Integrating IoT Technologies is Not a Technical Probl...
 
Designing Smart Things: user experience design for networked devices
Designing Smart Things: user experience design for networked devicesDesigning Smart Things: user experience design for networked devices
Designing Smart Things: user experience design for networked devices
 
What Open Source and Open Data Mean for Tomorrow's Transportation Agencies
What Open Source and Open Data Mean for Tomorrow's Transportation AgenciesWhat Open Source and Open Data Mean for Tomorrow's Transportation Agencies
What Open Source and Open Data Mean for Tomorrow's Transportation Agencies
 
Data into Action
Data into ActionData into Action
Data into Action
 
Open 311: A Platform for a Participatory Civic Infrastructure
Open 311: A Platform for a Participatory Civic InfrastructureOpen 311: A Platform for a Participatory Civic Infrastructure
Open 311: A Platform for a Participatory Civic Infrastructure
 
Lean hardware startups: elements of a ubiquitous computing innovation ecosystem
Lean hardware startups: elements of a ubiquitous computing innovation ecosystemLean hardware startups: elements of a ubiquitous computing innovation ecosystem
Lean hardware startups: elements of a ubiquitous computing innovation ecosystem
 
Open Course Data at Loughborough University
Open Course Data at Loughborough UniversityOpen Course Data at Loughborough University
Open Course Data at Loughborough University
 
RESS - Responsive Web Design + Serverside components
RESS - Responsive Web Design + Serverside componentsRESS - Responsive Web Design + Serverside components
RESS - Responsive Web Design + Serverside components
 
Hardware Startups: The VC Perspective
Hardware Startups: The VC PerspectiveHardware Startups: The VC Perspective
Hardware Startups: The VC Perspective
 

Similar to Designers and-geeks 2012-presentation_0.2

Damned if you do, Damned if you don't: commerce and the internet of things
Damned if you do, Damned if you don't: commerce and the internet of thingsDamned if you do, Damned if you don't: commerce and the internet of things
Damned if you do, Damned if you don't: commerce and the internet of thingsAlexandra Deschamps-Sonsino
 
Where to find better ideas? +10 categories to explore with examples
Where to find better ideas? +10 categories to explore with examplesWhere to find better ideas? +10 categories to explore with examples
Where to find better ideas? +10 categories to explore with examplesBoard of Innovation
 
Service Innovation The Path To Book Publishing Success In The Digital Age Pr...
Service Innovation  The Path To Book Publishing Success In The Digital Age Pr...Service Innovation  The Path To Book Publishing Success In The Digital Age Pr...
Service Innovation The Path To Book Publishing Success In The Digital Age Pr...toc
 
Ubiquity: smart people, smart places, smart organisations
Ubiquity: smart people, smart places, smart organisationsUbiquity: smart people, smart places, smart organisations
Ubiquity: smart people, smart places, smart organisationsDaisy Group
 
Modern Disruptive Innovation in today's world.
Modern Disruptive Innovation in today's world.  Modern Disruptive Innovation in today's world.
Modern Disruptive Innovation in today's world. Presentation Presenter
 
Design of understanding: New new media.
Design of understanding: New new media.Design of understanding: New new media.
Design of understanding: New new media.antimega
 
2015 International CES - What I learned at CES and what brands have to know
2015 International CES - What I learned at CES and what brands have to know2015 International CES - What I learned at CES and what brands have to know
2015 International CES - What I learned at CES and what brands have to knowMatt Doherty
 
Webinar on technologies that will drive entrepreneurship
Webinar on technologies that will drive entrepreneurshipWebinar on technologies that will drive entrepreneurship
Webinar on technologies that will drive entrepreneurshipmechselva49
 
The changing nature of things: the present and future of connected products.
The changing nature of things: the present and future of connected products.The changing nature of things: the present and future of connected products.
The changing nature of things: the present and future of connected products.Alexandra Deschamps-Sonsino
 
Marketplace Innovation - Technology
Marketplace Innovation - TechnologyMarketplace Innovation - Technology
Marketplace Innovation - TechnologyIoana Constandache
 
Marketplace Innovation Report | Q3, 2016
Marketplace Innovation Report | Q3, 2016Marketplace Innovation Report | Q3, 2016
Marketplace Innovation Report | Q3, 2016Endava
 
Simon Wardley @ FOWA Feb 07
Simon Wardley @ FOWA Feb 07Simon Wardley @ FOWA Feb 07
Simon Wardley @ FOWA Feb 07carsonsystems
 
Why won’t my bank let me play?
Why won’t my bank let me play?Why won’t my bank let me play?
Why won’t my bank let me play?Aden Davies
 
The Internet of Things
The Internet of ThingsThe Internet of Things
The Internet of ThingsRhys Hillman
 
Alan Shugart EBA Interview
Alan Shugart EBA InterviewAlan Shugart EBA Interview
Alan Shugart EBA InterviewMahendra Patel
 
CARMS - Entrepreneur inc
CARMS - Entrepreneur incCARMS - Entrepreneur inc
CARMS - Entrepreneur incGordon Kraft
 

Similar to Designers and-geeks 2012-presentation_0.2 (20)

Andy Huntington, BERG | BIMA Breakfast Briefing - Making the most of the 'ma...
 Andy Huntington, BERG | BIMA Breakfast Briefing - Making the most of the 'ma... Andy Huntington, BERG | BIMA Breakfast Briefing - Making the most of the 'ma...
Andy Huntington, BERG | BIMA Breakfast Briefing - Making the most of the 'ma...
 
Warner 2014 sf11
Warner 2014 sf11Warner 2014 sf11
Warner 2014 sf11
 
Damned if you do, Damned if you don't: commerce and the internet of things
Damned if you do, Damned if you don't: commerce and the internet of thingsDamned if you do, Damned if you don't: commerce and the internet of things
Damned if you do, Damned if you don't: commerce and the internet of things
 
Where to find better ideas? +10 categories to explore with examples
Where to find better ideas? +10 categories to explore with examplesWhere to find better ideas? +10 categories to explore with examples
Where to find better ideas? +10 categories to explore with examples
 
Service Innovation The Path To Book Publishing Success In The Digital Age Pr...
Service Innovation  The Path To Book Publishing Success In The Digital Age Pr...Service Innovation  The Path To Book Publishing Success In The Digital Age Pr...
Service Innovation The Path To Book Publishing Success In The Digital Age Pr...
 
Ubiquity: smart people, smart places, smart organisations
Ubiquity: smart people, smart places, smart organisationsUbiquity: smart people, smart places, smart organisations
Ubiquity: smart people, smart places, smart organisations
 
EIA 2015 Validating Revenue Model Assumptions
EIA 2015 Validating Revenue Model AssumptionsEIA 2015 Validating Revenue Model Assumptions
EIA 2015 Validating Revenue Model Assumptions
 
Modern Disruptive Innovation in today's world.
Modern Disruptive Innovation in today's world.  Modern Disruptive Innovation in today's world.
Modern Disruptive Innovation in today's world.
 
Design of understanding: New new media.
Design of understanding: New new media.Design of understanding: New new media.
Design of understanding: New new media.
 
2015 International CES - What I learned at CES and what brands have to know
2015 International CES - What I learned at CES and what brands have to know2015 International CES - What I learned at CES and what brands have to know
2015 International CES - What I learned at CES and what brands have to know
 
Webinar on technologies that will drive entrepreneurship
Webinar on technologies that will drive entrepreneurshipWebinar on technologies that will drive entrepreneurship
Webinar on technologies that will drive entrepreneurship
 
The changing nature of things: the present and future of connected products.
The changing nature of things: the present and future of connected products.The changing nature of things: the present and future of connected products.
The changing nature of things: the present and future of connected products.
 
Marketplace Innovation - Technology
Marketplace Innovation - TechnologyMarketplace Innovation - Technology
Marketplace Innovation - Technology
 
Marketplace Innovation Report | Q3, 2016
Marketplace Innovation Report | Q3, 2016Marketplace Innovation Report | Q3, 2016
Marketplace Innovation Report | Q3, 2016
 
CoffeeLingo1
CoffeeLingo1CoffeeLingo1
CoffeeLingo1
 
Simon Wardley @ FOWA Feb 07
Simon Wardley @ FOWA Feb 07Simon Wardley @ FOWA Feb 07
Simon Wardley @ FOWA Feb 07
 
Why won’t my bank let me play?
Why won’t my bank let me play?Why won’t my bank let me play?
Why won’t my bank let me play?
 
The Internet of Things
The Internet of ThingsThe Internet of Things
The Internet of Things
 
Alan Shugart EBA Interview
Alan Shugart EBA InterviewAlan Shugart EBA Interview
Alan Shugart EBA Interview
 
CARMS - Entrepreneur inc
CARMS - Entrepreneur incCARMS - Entrepreneur inc
CARMS - Entrepreneur inc
 

More from Mike Kuniavsky

Design in Research: How do you use design to support and shape R&D? October 1...
Design in Research: How do you use design to support and shape R&D? October 1...Design in Research: How do you use design to support and shape R&D? October 1...
Design in Research: How do you use design to support and shape R&D? October 1...Mike Kuniavsky
 
Our Future in Algorithm Farming (Long Now Interval 5/17/16)
Our Future in Algorithm Farming (Long Now Interval 5/17/16)Our Future in Algorithm Farming (Long Now Interval 5/17/16)
Our Future in Algorithm Farming (Long Now Interval 5/17/16)Mike Kuniavsky
 
Experience Probes for Exploring the Impact of Novel Products
Experience Probes for Exploring the Impact of Novel ProductsExperience Probes for Exploring the Impact of Novel Products
Experience Probes for Exploring the Impact of Novel ProductsMike Kuniavsky
 
The UX of Predictive AI in the IoT (Rosenfeld To Be Designed)
The UX of Predictive AI in the IoT (Rosenfeld To Be Designed)The UX of Predictive AI in the IoT (Rosenfeld To Be Designed)
The UX of Predictive AI in the IoT (Rosenfeld To Be Designed)Mike Kuniavsky
 
Hardware without Hardware, minimal explorations of novel product ideas (O'Rei...
Hardware without Hardware, minimal explorations of novel product ideas (O'Rei...Hardware without Hardware, minimal explorations of novel product ideas (O'Rei...
Hardware without Hardware, minimal explorations of novel product ideas (O'Rei...Mike Kuniavsky
 
Our Future in Algorithm Farming (Long Now Interval 5/17/16)
Our Future in Algorithm Farming (Long Now Interval 5/17/16)Our Future in Algorithm Farming (Long Now Interval 5/17/16)
Our Future in Algorithm Farming (Long Now Interval 5/17/16)Mike Kuniavsky
 
The UX of Predictive Behavior for the IoT (2016: O'Reilly Designing for the IOT)
The UX of Predictive Behavior for the IoT (2016: O'Reilly Designing for the IOT)The UX of Predictive Behavior for the IoT (2016: O'Reilly Designing for the IOT)
The UX of Predictive Behavior for the IoT (2016: O'Reilly Designing for the IOT)Mike Kuniavsky
 
Products are Services, how ubiquitous computing changes design
Products are Services, how ubiquitous computing changes designProducts are Services, how ubiquitous computing changes design
Products are Services, how ubiquitous computing changes designMike Kuniavsky
 
Life in the Pre-Pre-Cambrian: a presentation for the MS Social Computing Symp...
Life in the Pre-Pre-Cambrian: a presentation for the MS Social Computing Symp...Life in the Pre-Pre-Cambrian: a presentation for the MS Social Computing Symp...
Life in the Pre-Pre-Cambrian: a presentation for the MS Social Computing Symp...Mike Kuniavsky
 
Service Avatars and the Service Avatar Operating System (Symbian SEE conferen...
Service Avatars and the Service Avatar Operating System (Symbian SEE conferen...Service Avatars and the Service Avatar Operating System (Symbian SEE conferen...
Service Avatars and the Service Avatar Operating System (Symbian SEE conferen...Mike Kuniavsky
 
Information is a Material (Mobile Monday talk transcript)
Information is a Material (Mobile Monday talk transcript)Information is a Material (Mobile Monday talk transcript)
Information is a Material (Mobile Monday talk transcript)Mike Kuniavsky
 
Information is a Material. Products are Services.
Information is a Material. Products are Services.Information is a Material. Products are Services.
Information is a Material. Products are Services.Mike Kuniavsky
 
Service Avatars (Mobilize 2010 presentation)
Service Avatars (Mobilize 2010 presentation)Service Avatars (Mobilize 2010 presentation)
Service Avatars (Mobilize 2010 presentation)Mike Kuniavsky
 
Device Design Day: Information is a Material
Device Design Day: Information is a MaterialDevice Design Day: Information is a Material
Device Design Day: Information is a MaterialMike Kuniavsky
 
Information is a Material
Information is a MaterialInformation is a Material
Information is a MaterialMike Kuniavsky
 
When bits meet atoms : Making things in a Read-Write world
When bits meet atoms: Making things in a Read-Write worldWhen bits meet atoms: Making things in a Read-Write world
When bits meet atoms : Making things in a Read-Write worldMike Kuniavsky
 
Open Hardware and Design
Open Hardware and DesignOpen Hardware and Design
Open Hardware and DesignMike Kuniavsky
 

More from Mike Kuniavsky (18)

Design in Research: How do you use design to support and shape R&D? October 1...
Design in Research: How do you use design to support and shape R&D? October 1...Design in Research: How do you use design to support and shape R&D? October 1...
Design in Research: How do you use design to support and shape R&D? October 1...
 
Our Future in Algorithm Farming (Long Now Interval 5/17/16)
Our Future in Algorithm Farming (Long Now Interval 5/17/16)Our Future in Algorithm Farming (Long Now Interval 5/17/16)
Our Future in Algorithm Farming (Long Now Interval 5/17/16)
 
Experience Probes for Exploring the Impact of Novel Products
Experience Probes for Exploring the Impact of Novel ProductsExperience Probes for Exploring the Impact of Novel Products
Experience Probes for Exploring the Impact of Novel Products
 
The UX of Predictive AI in the IoT (Rosenfeld To Be Designed)
The UX of Predictive AI in the IoT (Rosenfeld To Be Designed)The UX of Predictive AI in the IoT (Rosenfeld To Be Designed)
The UX of Predictive AI in the IoT (Rosenfeld To Be Designed)
 
Hardware without Hardware, minimal explorations of novel product ideas (O'Rei...
Hardware without Hardware, minimal explorations of novel product ideas (O'Rei...Hardware without Hardware, minimal explorations of novel product ideas (O'Rei...
Hardware without Hardware, minimal explorations of novel product ideas (O'Rei...
 
Our Future in Algorithm Farming (Long Now Interval 5/17/16)
Our Future in Algorithm Farming (Long Now Interval 5/17/16)Our Future in Algorithm Farming (Long Now Interval 5/17/16)
Our Future in Algorithm Farming (Long Now Interval 5/17/16)
 
The UX of Predictive Behavior for the IoT (2016: O'Reilly Designing for the IOT)
The UX of Predictive Behavior for the IoT (2016: O'Reilly Designing for the IOT)The UX of Predictive Behavior for the IoT (2016: O'Reilly Designing for the IOT)
The UX of Predictive Behavior for the IoT (2016: O'Reilly Designing for the IOT)
 
Products are Services, how ubiquitous computing changes design
Products are Services, how ubiquitous computing changes designProducts are Services, how ubiquitous computing changes design
Products are Services, how ubiquitous computing changes design
 
Life in the Pre-Pre-Cambrian: a presentation for the MS Social Computing Symp...
Life in the Pre-Pre-Cambrian: a presentation for the MS Social Computing Symp...Life in the Pre-Pre-Cambrian: a presentation for the MS Social Computing Symp...
Life in the Pre-Pre-Cambrian: a presentation for the MS Social Computing Symp...
 
Service Avatars and the Service Avatar Operating System (Symbian SEE conferen...
Service Avatars and the Service Avatar Operating System (Symbian SEE conferen...Service Avatars and the Service Avatar Operating System (Symbian SEE conferen...
Service Avatars and the Service Avatar Operating System (Symbian SEE conferen...
 
Information is a Material (Mobile Monday talk transcript)
Information is a Material (Mobile Monday talk transcript)Information is a Material (Mobile Monday talk transcript)
Information is a Material (Mobile Monday talk transcript)
 
Information is a Material. Products are Services.
Information is a Material. Products are Services.Information is a Material. Products are Services.
Information is a Material. Products are Services.
 
Service Avatars (Mobilize 2010 presentation)
Service Avatars (Mobilize 2010 presentation)Service Avatars (Mobilize 2010 presentation)
Service Avatars (Mobilize 2010 presentation)
 
Device Design Day: Information is a Material
Device Design Day: Information is a MaterialDevice Design Day: Information is a Material
Device Design Day: Information is a Material
 
Information is a Material
Information is a MaterialInformation is a Material
Information is a Material
 
When bits meet atoms : Making things in a Read-Write world
When bits meet atoms: Making things in a Read-Write worldWhen bits meet atoms: Making things in a Read-Write world
When bits meet atoms : Making things in a Read-Write world
 
Mashups with Atoms
Mashups with AtomsMashups with Atoms
Mashups with Atoms
 
Open Hardware and Design
Open Hardware and DesignOpen Hardware and Design
Open Hardware and Design
 

Recently uploaded

Assure Ecommerce and Retail Operations Uptime with ThousandEyes
Assure Ecommerce and Retail Operations Uptime with ThousandEyesAssure Ecommerce and Retail Operations Uptime with ThousandEyes
Assure Ecommerce and Retail Operations Uptime with ThousandEyesThousandEyes
 
2024 April Patch Tuesday
2024 April Patch Tuesday2024 April Patch Tuesday
2024 April Patch TuesdayIvanti
 
Emixa Mendix Meetup 11 April 2024 about Mendix Native development
Emixa Mendix Meetup 11 April 2024 about Mendix Native developmentEmixa Mendix Meetup 11 April 2024 about Mendix Native development
Emixa Mendix Meetup 11 April 2024 about Mendix Native developmentPim van der Noll
 
Microsoft 365 Copilot: How to boost your productivity with AI – Part two: Dat...
Microsoft 365 Copilot: How to boost your productivity with AI – Part two: Dat...Microsoft 365 Copilot: How to boost your productivity with AI – Part two: Dat...
Microsoft 365 Copilot: How to boost your productivity with AI – Part two: Dat...Nikki Chapple
 
Generative Artificial Intelligence: How generative AI works.pdf
Generative Artificial Intelligence: How generative AI works.pdfGenerative Artificial Intelligence: How generative AI works.pdf
Generative Artificial Intelligence: How generative AI works.pdfIngrid Airi González
 
UiPath Community: Communication Mining from Zero to Hero
UiPath Community: Communication Mining from Zero to HeroUiPath Community: Communication Mining from Zero to Hero
UiPath Community: Communication Mining from Zero to HeroUiPathCommunity
 
So einfach geht modernes Roaming fuer Notes und Nomad.pdf
So einfach geht modernes Roaming fuer Notes und Nomad.pdfSo einfach geht modernes Roaming fuer Notes und Nomad.pdf
So einfach geht modernes Roaming fuer Notes und Nomad.pdfpanagenda
 
Transcript: New from BookNet Canada for 2024: BNC SalesData and LibraryData -...
Transcript: New from BookNet Canada for 2024: BNC SalesData and LibraryData -...Transcript: New from BookNet Canada for 2024: BNC SalesData and LibraryData -...
Transcript: New from BookNet Canada for 2024: BNC SalesData and LibraryData -...BookNet Canada
 
Infrared simulation and processing on Nvidia platforms
Infrared simulation and processing on Nvidia platformsInfrared simulation and processing on Nvidia platforms
Infrared simulation and processing on Nvidia platformsYoss Cohen
 
Modern Roaming for Notes and Nomad – Cheaper Faster Better Stronger
Modern Roaming for Notes and Nomad – Cheaper Faster Better StrongerModern Roaming for Notes and Nomad – Cheaper Faster Better Stronger
Modern Roaming for Notes and Nomad – Cheaper Faster Better Strongerpanagenda
 
Accelerating Enterprise Software Engineering with Platformless
Accelerating Enterprise Software Engineering with PlatformlessAccelerating Enterprise Software Engineering with Platformless
Accelerating Enterprise Software Engineering with PlatformlessWSO2
 
Email Marketing Automation for Bonterra Impact Management (fka Social Solutio...
Email Marketing Automation for Bonterra Impact Management (fka Social Solutio...Email Marketing Automation for Bonterra Impact Management (fka Social Solutio...
Email Marketing Automation for Bonterra Impact Management (fka Social Solutio...Jeffrey Haguewood
 
Why device, WIFI, and ISP insights are crucial to supporting remote Microsoft...
Why device, WIFI, and ISP insights are crucial to supporting remote Microsoft...Why device, WIFI, and ISP insights are crucial to supporting remote Microsoft...
Why device, WIFI, and ISP insights are crucial to supporting remote Microsoft...panagenda
 
Design pattern talk by Kaya Weers - 2024 (v2)
Design pattern talk by Kaya Weers - 2024 (v2)Design pattern talk by Kaya Weers - 2024 (v2)
Design pattern talk by Kaya Weers - 2024 (v2)Kaya Weers
 
A Glance At The Java Performance Toolbox
A Glance At The Java Performance ToolboxA Glance At The Java Performance Toolbox
A Glance At The Java Performance ToolboxAna-Maria Mihalceanu
 
Genislab builds better products and faster go-to-market with Lean project man...
Genislab builds better products and faster go-to-market with Lean project man...Genislab builds better products and faster go-to-market with Lean project man...
Genislab builds better products and faster go-to-market with Lean project man...Farhan Tariq
 
JET Technology Labs White Paper for Virtualized Security and Encryption Techn...
JET Technology Labs White Paper for Virtualized Security and Encryption Techn...JET Technology Labs White Paper for Virtualized Security and Encryption Techn...
JET Technology Labs White Paper for Virtualized Security and Encryption Techn...amber724300
 
Generative AI - Gitex v1Generative AI - Gitex v1.pptx
Generative AI - Gitex v1Generative AI - Gitex v1.pptxGenerative AI - Gitex v1Generative AI - Gitex v1.pptx
Generative AI - Gitex v1Generative AI - Gitex v1.pptxfnnc6jmgwh
 
Kuma Meshes Part I - The basics - A tutorial
Kuma Meshes Part I - The basics - A tutorialKuma Meshes Part I - The basics - A tutorial
Kuma Meshes Part I - The basics - A tutorialJoão Esperancinha
 
4. Cobus Valentine- Cybersecurity Threats and Solutions for the Public Sector
4. Cobus Valentine- Cybersecurity Threats and Solutions for the Public Sector4. Cobus Valentine- Cybersecurity Threats and Solutions for the Public Sector
4. Cobus Valentine- Cybersecurity Threats and Solutions for the Public Sectoritnewsafrica
 

Recently uploaded (20)

Assure Ecommerce and Retail Operations Uptime with ThousandEyes
Assure Ecommerce and Retail Operations Uptime with ThousandEyesAssure Ecommerce and Retail Operations Uptime with ThousandEyes
Assure Ecommerce and Retail Operations Uptime with ThousandEyes
 
2024 April Patch Tuesday
2024 April Patch Tuesday2024 April Patch Tuesday
2024 April Patch Tuesday
 
Emixa Mendix Meetup 11 April 2024 about Mendix Native development
Emixa Mendix Meetup 11 April 2024 about Mendix Native developmentEmixa Mendix Meetup 11 April 2024 about Mendix Native development
Emixa Mendix Meetup 11 April 2024 about Mendix Native development
 
Microsoft 365 Copilot: How to boost your productivity with AI – Part two: Dat...
Microsoft 365 Copilot: How to boost your productivity with AI – Part two: Dat...Microsoft 365 Copilot: How to boost your productivity with AI – Part two: Dat...
Microsoft 365 Copilot: How to boost your productivity with AI – Part two: Dat...
 
Generative Artificial Intelligence: How generative AI works.pdf
Generative Artificial Intelligence: How generative AI works.pdfGenerative Artificial Intelligence: How generative AI works.pdf
Generative Artificial Intelligence: How generative AI works.pdf
 
UiPath Community: Communication Mining from Zero to Hero
UiPath Community: Communication Mining from Zero to HeroUiPath Community: Communication Mining from Zero to Hero
UiPath Community: Communication Mining from Zero to Hero
 
So einfach geht modernes Roaming fuer Notes und Nomad.pdf
So einfach geht modernes Roaming fuer Notes und Nomad.pdfSo einfach geht modernes Roaming fuer Notes und Nomad.pdf
So einfach geht modernes Roaming fuer Notes und Nomad.pdf
 
Transcript: New from BookNet Canada for 2024: BNC SalesData and LibraryData -...
Transcript: New from BookNet Canada for 2024: BNC SalesData and LibraryData -...Transcript: New from BookNet Canada for 2024: BNC SalesData and LibraryData -...
Transcript: New from BookNet Canada for 2024: BNC SalesData and LibraryData -...
 
Infrared simulation and processing on Nvidia platforms
Infrared simulation and processing on Nvidia platformsInfrared simulation and processing on Nvidia platforms
Infrared simulation and processing on Nvidia platforms
 
Modern Roaming for Notes and Nomad – Cheaper Faster Better Stronger
Modern Roaming for Notes and Nomad – Cheaper Faster Better StrongerModern Roaming for Notes and Nomad – Cheaper Faster Better Stronger
Modern Roaming for Notes and Nomad – Cheaper Faster Better Stronger
 
Accelerating Enterprise Software Engineering with Platformless
Accelerating Enterprise Software Engineering with PlatformlessAccelerating Enterprise Software Engineering with Platformless
Accelerating Enterprise Software Engineering with Platformless
 
Email Marketing Automation for Bonterra Impact Management (fka Social Solutio...
Email Marketing Automation for Bonterra Impact Management (fka Social Solutio...Email Marketing Automation for Bonterra Impact Management (fka Social Solutio...
Email Marketing Automation for Bonterra Impact Management (fka Social Solutio...
 
Why device, WIFI, and ISP insights are crucial to supporting remote Microsoft...
Why device, WIFI, and ISP insights are crucial to supporting remote Microsoft...Why device, WIFI, and ISP insights are crucial to supporting remote Microsoft...
Why device, WIFI, and ISP insights are crucial to supporting remote Microsoft...
 
Design pattern talk by Kaya Weers - 2024 (v2)
Design pattern talk by Kaya Weers - 2024 (v2)Design pattern talk by Kaya Weers - 2024 (v2)
Design pattern talk by Kaya Weers - 2024 (v2)
 
A Glance At The Java Performance Toolbox
A Glance At The Java Performance ToolboxA Glance At The Java Performance Toolbox
A Glance At The Java Performance Toolbox
 
Genislab builds better products and faster go-to-market with Lean project man...
Genislab builds better products and faster go-to-market with Lean project man...Genislab builds better products and faster go-to-market with Lean project man...
Genislab builds better products and faster go-to-market with Lean project man...
 
JET Technology Labs White Paper for Virtualized Security and Encryption Techn...
JET Technology Labs White Paper for Virtualized Security and Encryption Techn...JET Technology Labs White Paper for Virtualized Security and Encryption Techn...
JET Technology Labs White Paper for Virtualized Security and Encryption Techn...
 
Generative AI - Gitex v1Generative AI - Gitex v1.pptx
Generative AI - Gitex v1Generative AI - Gitex v1.pptxGenerative AI - Gitex v1Generative AI - Gitex v1.pptx
Generative AI - Gitex v1Generative AI - Gitex v1.pptx
 
Kuma Meshes Part I - The basics - A tutorial
Kuma Meshes Part I - The basics - A tutorialKuma Meshes Part I - The basics - A tutorial
Kuma Meshes Part I - The basics - A tutorial
 
4. Cobus Valentine- Cybersecurity Threats and Solutions for the Public Sector
4. Cobus Valentine- Cybersecurity Threats and Solutions for the Public Sector4. Cobus Valentine- Cybersecurity Threats and Solutions for the Public Sector
4. Cobus Valentine- Cybersecurity Threats and Solutions for the Public Sector
 

Designers and-geeks 2012-presentation_0.2

  • 1. THE NEW PRODUCT DEVELOPMENT ECOSYSTEM HOW DESIGN WILL REINVENT MANUFACTURING Mike Kuniavsky October 18, 2012 Designers and Geeks SF
  • 2. First, let me tell you a bit about my background. I’m a user experience designer. I was one of the first professional Web designers in 1993, where I was lucky enough to be present for the birth of such things as the online shopping cart and the search engine. This is the navigation for a hot sauce shopping site I designed in 1994.
  • 3. I’m proud of the fact that 16 years later they were still using the same visual identity. These were some of the oldest pixels on the Web.
  • 4. Here’s one of my UI designs for the advanced search for HotBot, an early search engine, from 1997. If you’re wondering why Google’s front page is no minimal, I think it was because we were doing this.
  • 5. Since then I’ve consulted on the user experience design of dozens, maybe hundreds of web sites. Here’s one for credit.com, who were fantastic clients a couple of years ago.
  • 6. I sat out the first dotcom crash writing a book based on the work I had been doing. It’s a cookbook of user research methods. It came out in 2003 and the second edition just came out last month. Buy a copy for everyone on your team!
  • 7. And 2001 I co-founded a design and consulting company called Adaptive Path.
  • 8. I left the Web behind in 2004 and founded a company with Tod E. Kurt called ThingM in 2006.
  • 9. ThingM is a micro-OEM and an R&D lab. We design and manufacture a range of smart LEDs for architects, industrial designers and hackers. Our products appear on everything from flying robots to Lady Gaga’s stage show. This is an RFID wine rack that we did about four years ago. The different light colors represent different facets of information that’s pulled down from a cloud-based service, such as current market price. This is a capacitive sensing kitchen cabinet knob we did two years ago. It glows when you touch it to creates a little bit of magic in your everyday environment and was an exploration in making a digital product that would still be useful 20 years after it was made.
  • 10. In 2010 I wrote a book on the user experience design of ubiquitous computing devices, which I define as things that do information processing and networking, but are not experienced as general purpose computing or communication devices.
  • 11. I also organize an annual summit of people developing hardware design tools for non-engineers.
  • 12. However, ThingM, books and conferences are not my day job. They’re entertaining sidelines. My primary day job is as an innovation and user experience design consultant focusing on the design of digital consumer products. Here are some I’ve worked on for Yamaha, Whirlpool and Qualcomm.
  • 13. The last couple of years my clients have been large consumer electronics companies. I’ve worked with them to design new products and services and to help them create more user centered and company cultures. I can’t give you any details, but I’ll tell you that big data analytics, real- time image recognition, distributed processing, and machine learning are pretty awesome.
  • 14. This spring I finally got to do a project I can talk about. I worked with Sifteo, the game company, to design all of the non- game UX of their second generation platform. It was a great project. Stock up on these for Christmas.
  • 16. Let me start with a little history of manufacturing efficiency. Now this is only barely history, since I’m not a historian, but I’ve been reading about the history of technology for a couple of years and I came up with this model for understanding several trends in manufacturing, and I think it has some face validity. If you look at how many things you could produce from one unit of work, you see an interesting curve. For most of the last ten # of things from 1 unit of work thousand or however many years, when you put one unit of work into a project, you got roughly one thing out of it. I realize etc “a unit of work” is somewhat imprecise, but bear with me. During this period you see some gains in efficiency through tools like the potter’s wheel, the plow, the horse, the lever, fire, but those efficiencies were, roughly speaking linear. No one had the capability to make 10,000 cooking pots in a day. Then this thing happens. James Watt’s patent on the improvement to Newcomen’s steam engine expires in 1800. Boom. The Industrial Revolution. Exponential growth in the efficiency of 10K production. 10,000 cooking pots a day is easy. That’s followed by steady increases in efficiency until we get to today’s industrial society. OK, that’s fairly familiar. Now, let’s look at a related curve, the number of units of work to make the FIRST thing. Making 1000 the first thing of any set is hard. You become efficient later on, but the first time is not efficient. For most of history, that’s about one unit of work. And the funny thing about the Industrial Revolution is that as it made it much easier to make many things, it made it much harder to make that first thing. Mass produced objects are really complex, they require you to make 100 the tools that make the tools that make the end product. It’s no longer a process that a single person, or even a small workshop, can even afford to do time, money, or knowlege-wise. It requires a lot of expertise to be acquired and then consolidated into a single geographic location. Here is our familiar experience of manufactured products: pick nearly everything you own or see and it’s almost impossibly complex for you to make one. 10 And then this other thing happens. In October 2009 Stratasys’ core patent on computer controlled additive manufacturing expires. Boom. The cost of making the first thing starts to plummet while the cost of making lots of things stays the same. 1 The relationship between these two trends is what makes what I’m about to tell you about possible. # units of work to make the first thing 1800 Watt’s patent expires Anitquity patent expires 2009 y Toda Stratasys
  • 17. That’s where this comes from. THE NEW PRODUCT DEVELOPMENT ECOSYSTEM
  • 18. AMAZON 2020 Imagine Amazon 8 years from now. It looks like this. Yes, it looks exactly like the Amazon today. It has all of the familiar ways to discover new products, to compare them, to see what people think of them, to see what goes with what. It has wish lists, Gold Boxes, the whole thing. But there’s a crucial difference. Instead of Amazon being the front end to a fulfillment system, as it is today, the Amazon of 2020 is the front end to a set of factories.
  • 19. The back end doesn’t look like UPS, but Ford Motor Company. When you click on on buy you start a manufacturing process at the factory nearest you, instead of a delivery process from a warehouse far away.
  • 20. I know what you’re thinking: “Mike just saw a MakerBot and got all excited. We’ve heard this all before, it’s called mass customization, and it’s never worked out.” Why talk about this again? Because I think that the presentation of mass customization as “configurators for everything” (such as this 1998 project from Levi’s) missed the point. That totally gets the user motivation wrong: most people don’t want to be designers of everything, they want to design a couple of things, but be consumers of the rest. Some people want to make their own clothes, but those people typically don’t build their own cars, and vice versa. Most people have better things to do than figure out what colors and patterns look good together, what makes them look sexy or powerful, how much firmware will fit into the onboard memory. They’re busy. They want someone who is a MASS CUSTOMIZATION IS professional to do that research, to think really hard about what they need, to be really fluent in the tools that make it good, then to create a solution. SO 1996!
  • 21. I’m also not talking about desktop manufacturing. As much as all us geeks want a Star Trek replicator, it’s not that useful in practice. We just don’t need that much new stuff all the time. Paper printers are useful because they represent high density information that fits into a rich existing culture of information use, and even they’re not used nearly as much as ecommerce sites. Outside of work, people probably shop a lot more than they print. COPY SHOPS FOR 3D AND DESKTOP MANUFACTURING?
  • 22. I think more importantly, both mass customization and 2020? fabrication imagine a new world that’s different desktop than ours. I have nothing against envisioning new worlds and working toward their creation—that’s one of the things I do for my clients—but my experience has taught me that creating new worlds, changing the behavior of millions of people, is really hard and takes a really long time. If we look to a world 8 years into the future, odds are that it’s not going to have changed that much, the odds are that most of us are not going to have a whole bunch more time on our hands to become mechanical engineers, electrical engineers, software engineers, and material scientists, as much as we’d like to. Makerbot photo by Scott Beale
  • 23. 2020 2020 will actually probably look and works exactly like our world today, when seen from the outside. It’ll still be driven by the thrill of finding something awesome when you’re bored surfing the Internet and then making it yours by buying it. The relationship between the consumer and designer will remain intact. Designers still design, ecommerce sites still help people find stuff they like, people still buy.
  • 24. However, there will be a crucial difference behind the scenes, and it will be this difference that changes our world from one of centralized warehouses to a world of distributed factories.
  • 25. ANALYTICS The difference is analytics. When you order from the Amazon of 2020 a counter is incremented that registers that you, a human being with a set of well-known behaviors and a demographic background, decided to buy this specific version of this specific idea. Moreover, since the world of 2020 is a world of ubiquitous computing, every product has a small bit of digital hardware in it that tracks how the product is used and, with your implicit permission, sends that information back to a central server, which aggregates and anonymizes the results. This is of course exactly how large-scale Web design works, but now we will map it to all products.
  • 26. FEEDBACK LOOPS When you have rapid, cheap, distributed low- volume manufacturing capability AND real- time analytics you have a new way of designing 1957 products. You can take those Industrial Age design processes that took years to test hypotheses, and you can speed them up by orders of magnitude. 1958 Image: http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Tailfin s-evolution-1957-1959.jpg 1959
  • 27. Tight loop iteration between an idea and Blank’s Customer discovery market validation of that idea is the core of Eric Ries’ Lean Startup approach. This is a slide from Steve Blank, who is the patron saint of Lean Startup, that illustrates this basic idea. My vision--MY hypothesis--is that it’s possible to do this with ANYTHING by applying the ideas, practices and technologies we developed for the Net to everything else.
  • 28. LOW Volume MANUFACTURING and Assembly Let’s start by assuming we have low volume digital manufacturing, such as this Form1 printer that just got funded through Kickstarter. We know that’s coming.
  • 29. LOW VOLUME piece is hypothesis testing. How do you The next SOCIAL COMMERCE validate your idea without investing a lot in manufacturing? Well, that component is also coming online. Even though they sometimes deny it, Kickstarter is a catalog for products that don't exist yet. It gives developers feedback about the popularity of their idea and teaches them how to position it for a market before they’ve made a single final product. It provides two kinds of hypothesis testing: do people even want your idea? and what do they say they want it for?
  • 30. LOW VOLUME SOCIAL COMMERCE Etsy allows very small run electronic products (as long as they’re made of felt).
  • 31. LOW VOLUME SOCIAL COMMERCE Even fab.com, which sells limited-edition high design products like rugs and backpacks, sells small run electronics.
  • 32. LoW volume social commerce Here’s a new store opening on Valencia in about a month called Dijital Fix. They are a New York-based boutique specializing in limited-run electronics. These channels are immature, but they’re becoming increasingly popular. In effect, they’re doing an end run around the traditional consumer electronic sales channels--at the same time that Dijital Fix is opening new stores Best Buy is struggling—and giving developers direct access to their customers so they can test their product hypotheses directly. This is bringing product development closer to what we’ve become accustomed to when deploying software on the Web.
  • 33. COLLABORATIVE DESIGN TOOLS The key missing piece we still need to borrow from software is distributed collaborative design tools. To make better hypotheses we need to be able to take advantage of all of those specialized skills—all the different kinds of engineering—wherever they are, and to work together to create a shared understanding of what that hypothesis, that product, is. For purely digital products we have Github, Basecamp, WebEx, Balsamiq and similar products, but the physical world is way behind. Commercial CAD systems are huge and incredibly difficult to learn. Product Lifecycle Management systems assume that you’re always building a commercial airplane, and are also insanely complex.
  • 34. COLLABORATIVE DESIGN TOOLS We are getting new tools, Autodesk’s 123D, Ponoko has publishing tools, you can kind of fork projects on Thingiverse. But these tools are really immature. Sunglass just pivoted a couple of weeks ago from being an online CAD system to being a “Github for 3D.” When these products mature, this is going to open creative possibilities immensely. But it’s going to take time. Github got to where it is through an evolution of tools and practices that began with makefiles. The physical world isn’t even at the makefile stage.
  • 35. To me, the whole ecosystem looks like this. Here come the buzz words, so excuse me in advance. •Digital fabrication, we know what that is. It will allow us to make all kinds of things in small batches. DIGITAL FABRICATION •Ubiquitous Computing and the Internet of Things is leading to everyday objects that send a stream of telemetry when we bring them home. They have an information shadow in the cloud that can be data mined. + •Big Data Analytics crunches all of that data to create information about people’s behavior. •Social commerce creates sales channels that sell small numbers of products by finding niche markets and letting them market to each other •And finally, cloud-based design tools will allow designers and engineers to collaborate on the distributed development of physical products. UBICOMP/IOT This is my ecosystem vision: a world where design directly drives product creation, and where data informs design. This is a world where products are made in small numbers only when they are requested. They are made locally, with local materials and workers, while at the same + time being able to use design and engineering talent from anywhere on earth. In other words, they use the best qualities of both atoms and bits: atoms are available everywhere, bits travel fast. Designers in this vision add hypotheses testing against the actual market to their toolbox of design methods. BIG DATA ANALYTICS In the full pipe dream, this means we use fewer natural resources, take full advantage of talented people wherever they are, create only products + in large quantities that people need and want, meet the needs of tiny niche audiences, while still taking advantage of the infinite variety implicit in digital manufacturing technologies. Whew! SOCIAL COMMERCE + CLOUD-BASED DESIGN TOOLS = THE NEW PRODUCT DEVELOPMENT ECOSYSTEM
  • 36. I intend to make this vision my next focus as a designer and CONCLUSION entrepreneur. At ThingM we just did the first iteration on Kickstarter of a product we hope will become different and more interesting as we iterate on it. It’s the world’s best indicator light. It’s a highly configurable USB LED and it gives you peripheral awareness of things that are happening on the Net and your local machine. You can pre-order one from us today. However, I don’t expect that we will be able to do all of this by ourselves. I need your help: tell me what I don’t know, where I’m wrong. Tell me who I should talk to and where the opportunities are. I think this will change the world. I want to change the world. Pre-order at shop.thingm.com Interested? Talk to me.

Editor's Notes

  1. Thank you Joe for inviting me tonight. As soon as I saw your logo, I knew I had to participate.
  2. First, let me tell you a bit about my background. I ’m a user experience designer. I was one of the first professional Web designers in 1993, where I was lucky enough to be present for the birth of such things as the online shopping cart and the search engine. This is the navigation for a hot sauce shopping site I designed in 1994.
  3. I’m proud of the fact that 16 years later they were still using the same visual identity. These were some of the oldest pixels on the Web.
  4. Here’s one of my UI designs for the advanced search for HotBot, an early search engine, from 1997. If you’re wondering why Google’s front page is no minimal, I think it was because we were doing this.
  5. Since then I’ve consulted on the user experience design of dozens, maybe hundreds of web sites. Here’s one for credit.com, who were fantastic clients a couple of years ago.
  6. I sat out the first dotcom crash writing a book based on the work I had been doing. It ’s a cookbook of user research methods. It came out in 2003 and the second edition just came out last month. Buy a copy for everyone on your team!
  7. And 2001 I co-founded a design and consulting company called Adaptive Path.
  8. I left the Web behind in 2004 and founded a company with Tod E. Kurt called ThingM in 2006.
  9. ThingM is a micro-OEM and an R&D lab. We design and manufacture a range of smart LEDs for architects, industrial designers and hackers. Our products appear on everything from flying robots to Lady Gaga’s stage show. This is an RFID wine rack that we did about four years ago. The different light colors represent different facets of information that’s pulled down from a cloud-based service, such as current market price. This is a capacitive sensing kitchen cabinet knob we did two years ago. It glows when you touch it to creates a little bit of magic in your everyday environment and was an exploration in making a digital product that would still be useful 20 years after it was made.
  10. In 2010 I wrote a book on the user experience design of ubiquitous computing devices, which I define as things that do information processing and networking, but are not experienced as general purpose computing or communication devices.
  11. I also organize an annual summit of people developing hardware design tools for non-engineers.
  12. However, ThingM, books and conferences are not my day job. They’re entertaining sidelines. My primary day job is as an innovation and user experience design consultant focusing on the design of digital consumer products. Here are some I’ve worked on for Yamaha, Whirlpool and Qualcomm.
  13. The last couple of years my clients have been large consumer electronics companies. I’ve worked with them to design new products and services and to help them create more user centered and company cultures. I can’t give you any details, but I’ll tell you that big data analytics, real-time image recognition, distributed processing, and machine learning are pretty awesome.
  14. This spring I finally got to do a project I can talk about. I worked with Sifteo, the game company, to design all of the non-game UX of their second generation platform. It was a great project. Stock up on these for Christmas.
  15. Let me start with a little history of manufacturing efficiency. Now this is only barely history, since I’m not a historian, but I’ve been reading about the history of technology for a couple of years and I came up with this model for understanding several trends in manufacturing, and I think it has some face validity. If you look at how many things you could produce from one unit of work, you see an interesting curve. For most of the last ten thousand or however many years, when you put one unit of work into a project, you got roughly one thing out of it. I realize “a unit of work” is somewhat imprecise, but bear with me. During this period you see some gains in efficiency through tools like the potter’s wheel, the plow, the horse, the lever, fire, but those efficiencies were, roughly speaking linear. No one had the capability to make 10,000 cooking pots in a day. Then this thing happens. James Watt’s patent on the improvement to Newcomen’s steam engine expires in 1800. Boom. The Industrial Revolution. Exponential growth in the efficiency of production. 10,000 cooking pots a day is easy. That’s followed by steady increases in efficiency until we get to today’s industrial society. OK, that’s fairly familiar. Now, let’s look at a related curve, the number of units of work to make the FIRST thing. Making the first thing of any set is hard. You become efficient later on, but the first time is not efficient. For most of history, that’s about one unit of work. And the funny thing about the Industrial Revolution is that as it made it much easier to make many things, it made it much harder to make that first thing. Mass produced objects are really complex, they require you to make the tools that make the tools that make the end product. It’s no longer a process that a single person, or even a small workshop, can even afford to do time, money, or knowlege-wise. It requires a lot of expertise to be acquired and then consolidated into a single geographic location. Here is our familiar experience of manufactured products: pick nearly everything you own or see and it’s almost impossibly complex for you to make one. And then this other thing happens. In October 2009 Stratasys’ core patent on computer controlled additive manufacturing expires. Boom. The cost of making the first thing starts to plummet while the cost of making lots of things stays the same. The relationship between these two trends is what makes what I’m about to tell you about possible.
  16. That’s where this comes from.
  17. Imagine Amazon 8 years from now. It looks like this. Yes, it looks exactly like the Amazon today. It has all of the familiar ways to discover new products, to compare them, to see what people think of them, to see what goes with what. It has wish lists, Gold Boxes, the whole thing. But there’s a crucial difference. Instead of Amazon being the front end to a fulfillment system, as it is today, the Amazon of 2020 is the front end to a set of factories.
  18. The back end doesn’t look like UPS, but Ford Motor Company. When you click on on buy you start a manufacturing process at the factory nearest you, instead of a delivery process from a warehouse far away. River Rouge photo by Lotus Carroll, creative commons http://www.flickr.com/photos/thelotuscarroll/6695794423/
  19. I know what you’re thinking: “Mike just saw a MakerBot and got all excited. We’ve heard this all before, it’s called mass customization, and it’s never worked out.” Why talk about this again? Because I think that the presentation of mass customization as “configurators for everything” (such as this 1998 project from Levi’s) missed the point. That totally gets the user motivation wrong: most people don’t want to be designers of everything, they want to design a couple of things, but be consumers of the rest. Some people want to make their own clothes, but those people typically don’t build their own cars, and vice versa. Most people have better things to do than figure out what colors and patterns look good together, what makes them look sexy or powerful, how much firmware will fit into the onboard memory. They’re busy. They want someone who is a professional to do that research, to think really hard about what they need, to be really fluent in the tools that make it good, then to create a solution.
  20. I’m also not talking about desktop manufacturing. As much as all us geeks want a Star Trek replicator, it’s not that useful in practice. We just don’t need that much new stuff all the time. Paper printers are useful because they represent high density information that fits into a rich existing culture of information use, and even they’re not used nearly as much as ecommerce sites. Outside of work, people probably shop a lot more than they print.
  21. I think more importantly, both mass customization and desktop fabrication imagine a new world that’s different than ours. I have nothing against envisioning new worlds and working toward their creation—that’s one of the things I do for my clients—but my experience has taught me that creating new worlds, changing the behavior of millions of people, is really hard and takes a really long time. If we look to a world 8 years into the future, odds are that it’s not going to have changed that much, the odds are that most of us are not going to have a whole bunch more time on our hands to become mechanical engineers, electrical engineers, software engineers, and material scientists, as much as we’d like to. Makerbot photo by Scott Beale
  22. 2020 will actually probably look and works exactly like our world today, when seen from the outside. It’ll still be driven by the thrill of finding something awesome when you’re bored surfing the Internet and then making it yours by buying it. The relationship between the consumer and designer will remain intact. Designers still design, ecommerce sites still help people find stuff they like, people still buy.
  23. However, there will be a crucial difference behind the scenes, and it will be this difference that changes our world from one of centralized warehouses to a world of distributed factories.
  24. The difference is analytics. When you order from the Amazon of 2020 a counter is incremented that registers that you, a human being with a set of well-known behaviors and a demographic background, decided to buy this specific version of this specific idea. Moreover, since the world of 2020 is a world of ubiquitous computing, every product has a small bit of digital hardware in it that tracks how the product is used and, with your implicit permission, sends that information back to a central server, which aggregates and anonymizes the results. This is of course exactly how large-scale Web design works, but now we will map it to all products.
  25. When you have rapid, cheap, distributed low-volume manufacturing capability AND real-time analytics you have a new way of designing products. You can take those Industrial Age design processes that took years to test hypotheses, and you can speed them up by orders of magnitude. Image: http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Tailfins-evolution-1957-1959.jpg
  26. Tight loop iteration between an idea and market validation of that idea is the core of Eric Ries’ Lean Startup approach. This is a slide from Steve Blank, who is the patron saint of Lean Startup, that illustrates this basic idea. My vision--MY hypothesis--is that it’s possible to do this with ANYTHING by applying the ideas, practices and technologies we developed for the Net to everything else.
  27. Let’s start by assuming we have low volume digital manufacturing, such as this Form1 printer that just got funded through Kickstarter. We know that’s coming.
  28. The next piece is hypothesis testing. How do you validate your idea without investing a lot in manufacturing? Well, that component is also coming online. Even though they sometimes deny it, Kickstarter is a catalog for products that don't exist yet. It gives developers feedback about the popularity of their idea and teaches them how to position it for a market before they’ve made a single final product. It provides two kinds of hypothesis testing: do people even want your idea? and what do they say they want it for?
  29. Etsy allows very small run electronic products (as long as they’re made of felt).
  30. Even fab.com, which sells limited-edition high design products like rugs and backpacks, sells small run electronics.
  31. Here’s a new store opening on Valencia in about a month called Dijital Fix. They are a New York-based boutique specializing in limited-run electronics. These channels are immature, but they’re becoming increasingly popular. In effect, they’re doing an end run around the traditional consumer electronic sales channels--at the same time that Dijital Fix is opening new stores Best Buy is struggling—and giving developers direct access to their customers so they can test their product hypotheses directly. This is bringing product development closer to what we’ve become accustomed to when deploying software on the Web.
  32. The key missing piece we still need to borrow from software is distributed collaborative design tools. To make better hypotheses we need to be able to take advantage of all of those specialized skills—all the different kinds of engineering—wherever they are, and to work together to create a shared understanding of what that hypothesis, that product, is. For purely digital products we have Github, Basecamp, WebEx, Balsamiq and similar products, but the physical world is way behind. Commercial CAD systems are huge and incredibly difficult to learn. Product Lifecycle Management systems assume that you’re always building a commercial airplane, and are also insanely complex.
  33. We are getting new tools, Autodesk’s 123D, Ponoko has publishing tools, you can kind of fork projects on Thingiverse. But these tools are really immature. Sunglass just pivoted a couple of weeks ago from being an online CAD system to being a “ Github for 3D. ” When these products mature, this is going to open creative possibilities immensely. But it’s going to take time. Github got to where it is through an evolution of tools and practices that began with makefiles. The physical world isn’t even at the makefile stage.
  34. To me, the whole ecosystem looks like this. Here come the buzz words, so excuse me in advance. Digital fabrication, we know what that is. It will allow us to make all kinds of things in small batches. Ubiquitous Computing and the Internet of Things is leading to everyday objects that send a stream of telemetry when we bring them home. They have an information shadow in the cloud that can be data mined. Big Data Analytics crunches all of that data to create information about people’s behavior. Social commerce creates sales channels that sell small numbers of products by finding niche markets and letting them market to each other And finally, cloud-based design tools will allow designers and engineers to collaborate on the distributed development of physical products. This is my ecosystem vision: a world where design directly drives product creation, and where data informs design. This is a world where products are made in small numbers only when they are requested. They are made locally, with local materials and workers, while at the same time being able to use design and engineering talent from anywhere on earth. In other words, they use the best qualities of both atoms and bits: atoms are available everywhere, bits travel fast. Designers in this vision add hypotheses testing against the actual market to their toolbox of design methods. In the full pipe dream, this means we use fewer natural resources, take full advantage of talented people wherever they are, create only products in large quantities that people need and want, meet the needs of tiny niche audiences, while still taking advantage of the infinite variety implicit in digital manufacturing technologies. Whew!
  35. I intend to make this vision my next focus as a designer and entrepreneur. At ThingM we just did the first iteration on Kickstarter of a product we hope will become different and more interesting as we iterate on it. It’s the world’s best indicator light. It’s a highly configurable USB LED and it gives you peripheral awareness of things that are happening on the Net and your local machine. You can pre-order one from us today. However, I don’t expect that we will be able to do all of this by ourselves. I need your help: tell me what I don’t know, where I’m wrong. Tell me who I should talk to and where the opportunities are. I think this will change the world. I want to change the world. Interested? Talk to me.
  36. Thank you.