Peter Head CBE Dark Times, Bright Ideas udss11

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  • The paper I have written attempts to provide some innovative answers to the questions that flow from this:1) Can we move towards a sustainable way of living?2) What policies and investments are needed in low, middle and high income countries?3) What is the role of the engineer in leading this transition to an Ecological Age? I am presenting only a brief summary of the paper today. I will start by examining the problems we are facing and I will highlight the opportunities for change. Then I will use a specially designed framework to show what we can do over the next 50 years and then draw some firm conclusions about policies, changes, investments and the role of the engineer.
  • Adapt to USA Industrial Revolution and infrastructureWe Civil Engineers are proud of the heritage of the profession’s contribution to the rapid development of the economy during the industrial revolution. We stand on the shoulders of the great Victorian engineers like Brunel who created so much of the infrastructure that supported growth in Britain. In that time the UK population rose from 5 to 30million and people moved en masse to towns and cities.
  • Animated Earth – lasts approx 1 minute - click 2 times to progress to next slideIndustrial development and urbanisation have continued unabated. Civil engineers have been at the heart of the design and delivery of the essential infrastructure for energy, water, waste, communications, transport and flood protection. Energy consumption is central to this model of human development and in designing and building these systems we have created the hard wiring of a non-renewable resource consuming society.
  • Animated Earths appearingIn 1998 WWF started publishing a biennial Planet Report. The 2006 Report showed that we are now living in severe ecological overshoot. We are now consuming 25% more resources than the planet can replace and are drawing down the stock of natural capital that supports our lives.The key metric is the ‘ecological footprint’ of the population of each country. This is the area of earth surface required to support the population’s lifestyle with water, energy, food and resources and waste absorption. In 1900 we had an average of 8ha of land to support everyone’s life on the planet, but today with population growth and loss of productive land from pollution we only have 2ha. In Britain we are living as if this hasn’t happened and we are using 6ha on average each-3 planets worth of resources.
  • Animated slideWe need a vision and some clear objectives to kick us off. The objectives I have chosen to use are:C02 Reduction of 80% to 1990 levels by 2050 A transition of Ecological Footprint to the 2050 global earthshare of 1.44 ha in all countriesRaising overall wellbeing in every country in line with the Human Development Index millennium development goals.
  • Slide fades into next slide after 3 secondsAll this points to finding a way to live more harmoniously with the natural world and so how do we get there quickly? Janine Benyus in her brilliant book Biomimicry sets out 10 principles which can guide us. I will use them to show how the way we live can be transformed to reach our goals, often working in partnership with optimised natural organisms like bacteria and algae. Starting with low and middle income countries, they have the opportunity to develop in a way that improves quality of life and creates jobs and opportunities within an emerging resource efficient ecological economy. The model I have used for them is to assess emissions , footprint and development index , following the long term lessons from urban centres like Curitiba and Bogotá and current work, such as Dongtan and other Eco-city projects in China. You can think of this as a way of leapfrogging from the agricultural age to the ecological age. High-income countries have a bigger challenge. Economies like the US will need to avoid the ravages of inflation and political risks of shortages of basic needs that will soon come from continued industrial age resource use. This will require investment to transform existing urban centres along the lines of the London Climate Change Action Plan and WWF studies like One Planet Wales. We call this retrofitting and see this being carried out at a community scale of at least 50,000 to 100,000 people and I will use Biomimicry thinking to show how this can be done.
  • Slide fades into next slide after 3 secondsAll this points to finding a way to live more harmoniously with the natural world and so how do we get there quickly? Janine Benyus in her brilliant book Biomimicry sets out 10 principles which can guide us. I will use them to show how the way we live can be transformed to reach our goals, often working in partnership with optimised natural organisms like bacteria and algae. Starting with low and middle income countries, they have the opportunity to develop in a way that improves quality of life and creates jobs and opportunities within an emerging resource efficient ecological economy. The model I have used for them is to assess emissions , footprint and development index , following the long term lessons from urban centres like Curitiba and Bogotá and current work, such as Dongtan and other Eco-city projects in China. You can think of this as a way of leapfrogging from the agricultural age to the ecological age. High-income countries have a bigger challenge. Economies like the US will need to avoid the ravages of inflation and political risks of shortages of basic needs that will soon come from continued industrial age resource use. This will require investment to transform existing urban centres along the lines of the London Climate Change Action Plan and WWF studies like One Planet Wales. We call this retrofitting and see this being carried out at a community scale of at least 50,000 to 100,000 people and I will use Biomimicry thinking to show how this can be done.
  • Slide fades into next slide after 3 secondsAll this points to finding a way to live more harmoniously with the natural world and so how do we get there quickly? Janine Benyus in her brilliant book Biomimicry sets out 10 principles which can guide us. I will use them to show how the way we live can be transformed to reach our goals, often working in partnership with optimised natural organisms like bacteria and algae. Starting with low and middle income countries, they have the opportunity to develop in a way that improves quality of life and creates jobs and opportunities within an emerging resource efficient ecological economy. The model I have used for them is to assess emissions , footprint and development index , following the long term lessons from urban centres like Curitiba and Bogotá and current work, such as Dongtan and other Eco-city projects in China. You can think of this as a way of leapfrogging from the agricultural age to the ecological age. High-income countries have a bigger challenge. Economies like the US will need to avoid the ravages of inflation and political risks of shortages of basic needs that will soon come from continued industrial age resource use. This will require investment to transform existing urban centres along the lines of the London Climate Change Action Plan and WWF studies like One Planet Wales. We call this retrofitting and see this being carried out at a community scale of at least 50,000 to 100,000 people and I will use Biomimicry thinking to show how this can be done.
  • Words fade into images then fade to the next slide automatically - CAF – I’ve removed this fade . . . As title now in bottom of slideSo what are the big issues and opportunities for resource efficiency in food, water, energy and raw materials?
  • Highlight China, JapanAnimated Slide – Graphs fades after 15 seconds and a line for China grows Geopolitics- AfricaIn our industrial development model, energy consumption grows proportionately to GDP. Consumption eventually levels off as manufacturing is off-shored to low and middle income countries. The difference you can see in energy consumption now between USA and Europe is mostly car use in lower density sprawling urban US centres. In the ecological age model being pursued by China they are aiming to flatten their energy growth line by 20% now. They intend to do this using the eco-city urbanisation model combined with building high speed rail lines and moving to energy efficient manufacturing.
  • China already largest solar thermal manufacturer. Looking beyond the government’s short term targets for renewables, a promising commercial solution and one which has a deliverable outlook is a European renewable power grid that would run on a combination of concentrated solar power from the Sahara, wind power, tidal and stream power from the Atlantic seaboard, and hydropower from the Alps, Pyrenees and Scandinavia.Hydrogen derived from renewable energy sources could also provide part of the transport energy supply and also act as a storage medium for renewable energy. This would require new supply infrastructure like that already being put into Shanghai with fuelling stations around the city.
  • Supergrid VisionSource: TREC)Trans-Mediterranean Renewable Energy Cooperation (TREC) vision of a sustainable energy future for Europe, the Middle East and North Africa: A super-grid of solar thermal power plants and other renewable energy sources such as wind, hydroelectric and geothermal fully powers the region.
  • It is important to understand the importance of urban density for reducing transport energy demand. An average US urban dweller uses about 24 times more energy annually in private transport as a Chinese urban resident. You can see from the graph that there is a sweet spot of urban density of 35 to 100 people/hectare where public transport is viable and there is plenty of room for urban parks and gardens. So choosing the right density is really important.
  • The space required for moving people in buses and on cycles is so much less than for cars, and then you don’t need parking spaces. So reducing car use in city centres frees up a lot of valuable land for housing, parks and offices.
  • A substantial reduction in petrol and diesel use in private vehicles in urban areas will be necessary, partly incentivised by the health benefits of improved air quality and lower running costs. Battery and hydrogen fuel cell powered vehicles for cars, vans, lorries and buses will be part of the mix with hydrogen sourced from natural gas or other sources . Car clubs will enable people to hire vehicles when they need them.Public transport investment, aided by increases in urban density will be important. Urban electric metro systems are seven times more energy efficient than the average car with 1.5 occupants.Energy consumed in goods distribution in urban areas can be reduced by 70% by the use of consolidation centres around the city perimeter which are accessed by intercity rail and road links. Deliveries can then be made from these centres with zero emission vehicles.
  • Lets look at food first.As population grows and climate change impacts on us, the area of productive land is reducing. The flood in Burma and India shows how vulnerable food producing areas are. Also deterioration of soil quality and overgrazing are reducing the productivity on what land we have left, forcing us to use more chemical fertilisers and fossil fuels. And yet we still cannot meet demand.
  • South Asia Water picture. Access to clean drinking water.
  • Slide fades into next slide after 3 secondsAll this points to finding a way to live more harmoniously with the natural world and so how do we get there quickly? Janine Benyus in her brilliant book Biomimicry sets out 10 principles which can guide us. I will use them to show how the way we live can be transformed to reach our goals, often working in partnership with optimised natural organisms like bacteria and algae. Starting with low and middle income countries, they have the opportunity to develop in a way that improves quality of life and creates jobs and opportunities within an emerging resource efficient ecological economy. The model I have used for them is to assess emissions , footprint and development index , following the long term lessons from urban centres like Curitiba and Bogotá and current work, such as Dongtan and other Eco-city projects in China. You can think of this as a way of leapfrogging from the agricultural age to the ecological age. High-income countries have a bigger challenge. Economies like the US will need to avoid the ravages of inflation and political risks of shortages of basic needs that will soon come from continued industrial age resource use. This will require investment to transform existing urban centres along the lines of the London Climate Change Action Plan and WWF studies like One Planet Wales. We call this retrofitting and see this being carried out at a community scale of at least 50,000 to 100,000 people and I will use Biomimicry thinking to show how this can be done.
  • Slide fades into next slide after 3 secondsAll this points to finding a way to live more harmoniously with the natural world and so how do we get there quickly? Janine Benyus in her brilliant book Biomimicry sets out 10 principles which can guide us. I will use them to show how the way we live can be transformed to reach our goals, often working in partnership with optimised natural organisms like bacteria and algae. Starting with low and middle income countries, they have the opportunity to develop in a way that improves quality of life and creates jobs and opportunities within an emerging resource efficient ecological economy. The model I have used for them is to assess emissions , footprint and development index , following the long term lessons from urban centres like Curitiba and Bogotá and current work, such as Dongtan and other Eco-city projects in China. You can think of this as a way of leapfrogging from the agricultural age to the ecological age. High-income countries have a bigger challenge. Economies like the US will need to avoid the ravages of inflation and political risks of shortages of basic needs that will soon come from continued industrial age resource use. This will require investment to transform existing urban centres along the lines of the London Climate Change Action Plan and WWF studies like One Planet Wales. We call this retrofitting and see this being carried out at a community scale of at least 50,000 to 100,000 people and I will use Biomimicry thinking to show how this can be done.
  • Manchester Video – Short Version
  • I would like to thank all those organisations shown here for their tireless support and peer review of the paper. I would also like to give a special thanks to Debra Lam my researcher and project manager. And finally I would like to thank you all ladies and gentlemen and I hope I have inspired you to go and read and use the paper.
  • Peter Head CBE Dark Times, Bright Ideas udss11

    1. 1. Helping communities to be more resilient and successful in recovering from the recession Total Community Retrofit<br />Peter Head CBE FREngFRSA | Birmingham June 2011<br />Consultant Arup<br />Chairman Institute for Sustainability<br />CEO The Ecological Sequestration Trust<br />
    2. 2. www.arup.com (ecological age)<br />Can we move towards a sustainable way of living?<br />What policies and investments are needed in low, middle and high income countries?<br />How might might we enable communities to transition<br /> in a resilient way to the Ecological Age?<br /> ‘Green Growth’ <br />
    3. 3.
    4. 4. New York City/ Oxford/Ecology -Scaling laws for system growth <br />Human -industrial<br />Ecological<br />
    5. 5. Oxford compares very badly with <br />other global cities for overall GHG emissions<br />Oxford 2004<br />Source: Christopher Kennedy et al. 2009. Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Global Cities. Environmental Science & Technology.43(19), 7297-7302. (The data were mostly from 2005 although some cities had different years)<br />5<br />
    6. 6.
    7. 7. Our Shrinking Earth<br />1900<br />7.91<br />2030<br />1.69<br />2050<br />1.44<br />1950<br />5.15<br />2005<br />2.02<br />1987<br />2.60<br />Year<br />Hectaresof land per capita<br />
    8. 8. Swaziland<br />World<br />Brazil<br />Russia<br />EU<br />France<br />United Kingdom<br />Oxfordshire<br />Norway<br />United States of America<br />Source: Global Footprint Network and SEI<br />There are only 12 countries in the world with higher ecological footprints than Oxfordshire<br />8<br />
    9. 9. 9<br />Most of Oxfordshire’s districts have <br />poor environmental footprints<br />Worst<br />Best<br />Source: Stockholm Environment Institute<br />
    10. 10. HDI IncreaseHuman Development Index <br />1.44GHA/CapitaEcological Footprint<br />(CO2 – 50%)<br />+<br />+<br />= 2050 Ecological Age<br />
    11. 11. THE McKINSEY COST CURVE V2.0 IDENTIFIES 19 GTOF ABATEMENTS BY 2020 MAKING IT TECHNICALLY FEASIBLE TO ACHIEVE 450PPM<br />BREAKDOWN BY ABATEMENT TYPE<br /><ul><li>10 Gt for Terrestrial Carbon (Forestry and Agriculture)
    12. 12. 5 Gt for Energy Effiency
    13. 13. 4 Gt for Low Carbon Energy Supply</li></li></ul><li>Middle to High Income Countries<br /> Transition from industrial to ecological age<br /> City retrofitting and reconnecting urban-ruralresource flows <br /> Model – London Climate Change Action Plan, <br />Frieburg, Stockholm, Malmo<br />Investment in UK estimated £220bn to £450bn by 2050<br /> £10k to 20k per household<br /> The Future is Local by SDC www.sd-commission.org.uk<br />
    14. 14. 10 Principles of<br />Biomimicry<br />Diversify and cooperate<br />Use waste as resource<br />Gather and use energy efficiently<br />Optimise not maximise<br />Use materials sparingly<br />Clean up not pollute<br />Do not draw down resources<br />Remain in balance withthe biosphere<br />Run on information<br />Use local resource<br />
    15. 15. 10 Principles of<br />Biomimicry<br />Diversify and cooperate<br />Use waste as resource<br />Gather and use energy efficiently<br />Optimise not maximise<br />Use materials sparingly<br />Clean up not pollute<br />Do not draw down resources<br />Remain in balance withthe biosphere<br />Run on information<br />Use local resource<br />
    16. 16. Community Leaders-Making a Good Society <br />Now 45 people!<br />www.londonlsdc.org/londonleaders<br />www.futuresforcivilsociety.org<br />And role of Art and Culture www.culturefutures.org<br />
    17. 17. Theory - Cultural Planning<br />Culture Discipline and Sustainable City Development<br />
    18. 18. 10 Principles of<br />Biomimicry<br />Diversify and cooperate<br />Use waste as resource<br />Gather and use energy efficiently<br />Optimise not maximise<br />Use materials sparingly<br />Clean up not pollute<br />Do not draw down resources<br />Remain in balance withthe biosphere<br />Run on information<br />Use local resource<br />
    19. 19. Resource Efficiency<br />Food<br />Raw Materials<br />Energy<br />Water<br />
    20. 20. Energy Consumption<br />IMF, BP<br />
    21. 21. 20<br />Oxfordshire residents are above-average <br />domestic gas and electricity users<br />Oxfordshire households (except in Oxford) used more electricity <br />than the average for Great Britain and the South East region in 2007<br />Source: Department for Business, Enterprise and Regulatory Reform<br />
    22. 22. 21<br />Oxfordshire residents are above-average <br />domestic gas and electricity users<br />The average domestic gas consumption in 2007 was also <br />above average in all Oxfordshire districts except Cherwell.<br />Source: Department for Business, Enterprise and Regulatory Reform<br />
    23. 23. Potential Sources of CO2 reductions from the commercial/industrial sector<br />Contribution to overall reduction<br /><ul><li>More efficient supply of heat/electricity
    24. 24. Improvements to physical infrastructure
    25. 25. Behavioural change (switching off lights etc)
    26. 26. More energy efficient new builds</li></ul>50%<br />20%<br />25%<br />5%<br />
    27. 27. Balancing local and national energy supply networks<br />
    28. 28. Supergrid Vision TREC<br />
    29. 29. Transport & Urban Density<br />Compact City: Low rise and high density – 3 to 8 storeys/1.45 average plot ration/75 dwelling per hectares 80,000 people<br />Peter Newman and Jeffrey Kenworthy (2006) “Urban Design to Reduce Automobile Dependence”, Opolis: An International Journal of Suburban and Metropolitan Studies: Vol. 2: No. 1, Article 3. <br />
    30. 30. Press Office City of Munster, Germany<br />
    31. 31.
    32. 32.
    33. 33. Inefficient deliveries<br />Consolidation centres<br />Access control <br /><ul><li>Low Emission Zone,
    34. 34. Congestion Charge, etc</li></ul>Delivery vehicles<br />Efficient deliveries<br />Electric Trucks<br />Direct Deliveries to Tenants/ Businesses<br />City Consolidation Centres<br />Drop off Station if Tenant is out<br />Electric Bikes<br />Tenants and Businesses<br />
    35. 35. Decreasing Food Supply<br />Worldwatch Institute, Washington DC, United States<br />
    36. 36. Sustainable Agriculture, Wanzhuang Eco-City<br />Rural-urban separation<br />Business-as-Usual: Agricultural Food ProductionDislocation from the City<br />Access to sustainable practices<br />Upskilling through trainingAccess to information networksAccess to modern agricultural equipment<br />New urban-rural linkages<br />Eco-City Configuration:Sustainable Rural-Urban Linkage<br />
    37. 37. Farming in the City<br />
    38. 38. Arup GI Approach<br />
    39. 39. 10 Principles of<br />Biomimicry<br />Diversify and cooperate<br />Use waste as resource<br />Gather and use energy efficiently<br />Optimise not maximise<br />Use materials sparingly<br />Clean up not pollute<br />Do not draw down resources<br />Remain in balance withthe biosphere<br />Run on information<br />Use local resource<br />
    40. 40. Materials and Waste<br />Drivers of Change: Waste, Arup (2008)<br />‘Cradle to cradle’ TM<br />
    41. 41. 36<br />… recycling is increasing<br />43% of household waste collected in Oxfordshire in 2008/09 was recycled<br />Source: Oxfordshire County and District Councils<br />
    42. 42. Processes (Anaerobic Digestion/Composting)<br />
    43. 43. 10 Principles of<br />Biomimicry<br />Diversify and cooperate<br />Use waste as resource<br />Gather and use energy efficiently<br />Optimise not maximise<br />Use materials sparingly<br />Clean up not pollute<br />Do not draw down resources<br />Remain in balance withthe biosphere<br />Run on information<br />Use local resource<br />
    44. 44. BIM<br />IRM<br />3D – 4D – 5D<br />Virtual Reality<br />Collaboration<br />…<br />ITS<br />RFID<br />Broadband<br />WiMAX<br />CCTV<br />ANPR<br />Parking<br />BMS<br />…<br />Control Rooms<br />Specifications<br />D&B contracts<br />RIBA<br />…<br />Urban Information Architecture<br />Tools<br />Form and Infrastructure<br />Management<br />
    45. 45.
    46. 46. Integratedmultidisciplinary planningfor delivering better performanceoutcomes in cities through retrofitting:<br />
    47. 47. Integrated Resource Management <br />Linking the overarching masterplan to the technical disciplines<br />Master Plan<br />Energy<br />Food Production<br />Economics<br />Others<br />Waste Management<br />Logistics<br />Wastewater<br />Water supply<br />Transport<br />Understanding interactions and feedback loops between elements<br />
    48. 48. The System of City Life<br />
    49. 49. Arup’s IRM Platform<br />GIS<br />IRM <br />Link<br />IRM<br />Tech.Plan<br />Strate-gies<br />
    50. 50. Framework - Refined Plan<br />
    51. 51. “Our vision is to significantly advance the UK’s capability to deliver solutions for a sustainable future, by forging practical research collaborations and sharing the outcomes regionally, nationally and internationally”<br />
    52. 52. The Total Community Retrofit Model<br />
    53. 53. Phase 1 – Model<br />Development<br /><ul><li>Best practice review
    54. 54. Stakeholder buy-in
    55. 55. Early phase funding
    56. 56. Priority workstreams</li></ul> i. Financial/Business Model<br /> ii. Community ownership and value <br /><ul><li>Select priority locations</li></ul>12 mths<br />Phase 2 – Create<br />local client<br /><ul><li>Local steering group
    57. 57. Initial local opportunity analysis
    58. 58. Collaboration agreement
    59. 59. Cultural audit
    60. 60. Establish community structures
    61. 61. P/P/C client created</li></ul>6 mths<br />Phase 3 – Delivery <br />Planning<br /><ul><li>Conduct detailed local opportunity analysis
    62. 62. Create delivery body
    63. 63. Prioritise projects and delivery approaches
    64. 64. Consolidate existing funding streams
    65. 65. Secure delivery funding</li></ul>18 mths<br />Phase 4 - Delivery<br /><ul><li>Launch specific retrofit, infrastructure and community projects
    66. 66. Develop local supply chains, develop skills, support job creation
    67. 67. Assess progress through monitoring, measuring and evaluation</li></ul>10-15 yrs<br />Lifecycle – validation, replication<br /><ul><li>Measure results against expectations, collect community feedback
    68. 68. Develop knowledge transfer networks
    69. 69. Develop “replication toolkits”
    70. 70. Conduct dissemination outreach</li></ul>Total Community Retrofit: The Approach<br />
    71. 71. Create a donor pool from a region of £6m <br /> into TEST charity. <br /> TEST will create and fund putting an <br />integrated urban-rural resource model for <br /> the region into the University<br />TEST will fund phase 1,2 and 3 using local <br /> resources and expertise as UK/global <br /> demonstrator <br />The Ecological Sequestration Trust<br />
    72. 72. ‘But a city is more than a place in space, it is a drama in time’<br />Thank you<br />

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