GLOBAL PROPERTY & CONSTRUCTION CONSULTANTS
BIG ISSUES AUSTRALIA’S PROPERTY AND CONSTRUCTION FUTURE Michael Skelton Australia & New Zealand Research Manager
Facts, Fiction and the Future Population Growth Infrastructure Investment Forecast Labour  Force Demand Projected Cost Esc...
WHERE WE WERE...
WHERE WE ARE...
WHERE WE NEED TO BE...
HOW DO WE GET THERE?
The Population Debate How much is enough?
Australia - Today million 22.5
Australia @ 2050 million 30 ?
Australia @ 2050 million 35 ?
Australia @ 2050 million 40 ?
Australia @ 2050 More??
DECIPHERING THE POPULATION DEBATE
The Most Dangerous Idea! – A Static Population Million Today 2050 Projection +146% -40% +5% Minor Allowance of Growth from...
Population Projections High Projection Scenario 38% Increase South Australia Currently 1.6 million 2.2 million National 39...
The Irreversible Truth – Ageing Population % of GDP devoted to  Age-Related Spending by 2050 Proportion of Population  Age...
New research was needed…
INFRASTRUCTURE AND LABOUR FORCE
Infrastructure  Labour  Force Growth - Historical <ul><li>Index = 100 in 1987 </li></ul>Infrastructure Labour Force Total ...
Infrastructure Investment (per capita) - Historical
2050 – REQUIRED Infrastructure  Labour  Force Current infrastructure labour force: 738,000   Population Projections     Lo...
Ratio of Infrastructure  Labour  Force to Total Population High Projection Low Projection
2050 – REQUIRED Infrastructure  Labour  Force Infrastructure labour force contribution  will grow to  7.5%  of the total p...
Construction Productivity Job Required per $1million NSW VIC QLD SA WA Australia Residential &  Non-Residential Work Done ...
COST ESCALATION
Unemployment Rate <ul><li>Considerably less spare labour capacity this time around </li></ul>
Why did the  Labour  Force Remain Tight? <ul><li>Employers chose to reduce hours rather than reduce staff  </li></ul>Hours...
Comparative International Construction Costs Office High-Rise Apartments Hotels
National Housing Deficit Worsening
‘ COMPETITIVE’ MIGRATION
Circular Migration – Competition for Skills
Circular Migration – Competition for Skills
Historical Net Migration This would achieve 42 million by 2050
Australia – Still one of the most ‘ liveable ’ countries? In recent years Australia’s ranking as one of the world’s  most ...
A Prosperous and High Liveability ‘Big’ Australia Percentage of People in Prison that have... 36% Never Been Employed in A...
Connectivity <ul><li>Productivity Improvements </li></ul><ul><ul><li>High Speed Rail </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>High Speed...
HOW DO WE GET THERE? <ul><li>Migration policy to manage projected demand – not reactionary </li></ul><ul><li>Connectivity ...
Thank you Michael Skelton Australia & New Zealand Research Manager [email_address] Delivering solutions that enhance and  ...
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Big Issues In Australia's Property And Construction Future

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Davis Langdon\'s - An AECOM Company - Australia and New Zealand Research Manager delivered the following presentation for the Property Council of Australia on the 15th October 2010, tackling the 'Big Issues in Australia's Property and Construction Future'

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Big Issues In Australia's Property And Construction Future

  1. 1. GLOBAL PROPERTY & CONSTRUCTION CONSULTANTS
  2. 2. BIG ISSUES AUSTRALIA’S PROPERTY AND CONSTRUCTION FUTURE Michael Skelton Australia & New Zealand Research Manager
  3. 3. Facts, Fiction and the Future Population Growth Infrastructure Investment Forecast Labour Force Demand Projected Cost Escalation ‘ Competitive’ Immigration...
  4. 4. WHERE WE WERE...
  5. 5. WHERE WE ARE...
  6. 6. WHERE WE NEED TO BE...
  7. 7. HOW DO WE GET THERE?
  8. 8. The Population Debate How much is enough?
  9. 9. Australia - Today million 22.5
  10. 10. Australia @ 2050 million 30 ?
  11. 11. Australia @ 2050 million 35 ?
  12. 12. Australia @ 2050 million 40 ?
  13. 13. Australia @ 2050 More??
  14. 14. DECIPHERING THE POPULATION DEBATE
  15. 15. The Most Dangerous Idea! – A Static Population Million Today 2050 Projection +146% -40% +5% Minor Allowance of Growth from 22.5 million to 25 million
  16. 16. Population Projections High Projection Scenario 38% Increase South Australia Currently 1.6 million 2.2 million National 39.4m 33.9m 30.2m High Projection Scenario 75% Increase
  17. 17. The Irreversible Truth – Ageing Population % of GDP devoted to Age-Related Spending by 2050 Proportion of Population Aged 65+
  18. 18. New research was needed…
  19. 19. INFRASTRUCTURE AND LABOUR FORCE
  20. 20. Infrastructure Labour Force Growth - Historical <ul><li>Index = 100 in 1987 </li></ul>Infrastructure Labour Force Total Labour Force
  21. 21. Infrastructure Investment (per capita) - Historical
  22. 22. 2050 – REQUIRED Infrastructure Labour Force Current infrastructure labour force: 738,000   Population Projections     Low Medium High Infrastructure Investment Projection Scenarios Low Projection 907,000 1,021,000 1,191,000 Medium Projection 1,568,000 1,765,000 2,058,000 High Projection 2,229,000 2,508,000 2,925,000
  23. 23. Ratio of Infrastructure Labour Force to Total Population High Projection Low Projection
  24. 24. 2050 – REQUIRED Infrastructure Labour Force Infrastructure labour force contribution will grow to 7.5% of the total population from a long term average of 3%
  25. 25. Construction Productivity Job Required per $1million NSW VIC QLD SA WA Australia Residential & Non-Residential Work Done 16.7 10.6 13.9 14.2 11.6 13.1 Total Work Done (Including Engineering) 8.3 7.3 6.3 6.8 3.5 6.3 Proportion of Engineering Work Done 50% 31% 55% 52% 70% 52%
  26. 26. COST ESCALATION
  27. 27. Unemployment Rate <ul><li>Considerably less spare labour capacity this time around </li></ul>
  28. 28. Why did the Labour Force Remain Tight? <ul><li>Employers chose to reduce hours rather than reduce staff </li></ul>Hours Worked (billion hours/Month) Total Jobs (millions)
  29. 29. Comparative International Construction Costs Office High-Rise Apartments Hotels
  30. 30. National Housing Deficit Worsening
  31. 31. ‘ COMPETITIVE’ MIGRATION
  32. 32. Circular Migration – Competition for Skills
  33. 33. Circular Migration – Competition for Skills
  34. 34. Historical Net Migration This would achieve 42 million by 2050
  35. 35. Australia – Still one of the most ‘ liveable ’ countries? In recent years Australia’s ranking as one of the world’s most liveable countries & its business investment ranking have fallen
  36. 36. A Prosperous and High Liveability ‘Big’ Australia Percentage of People in Prison that have... 36% Never Been Employed in Any Capacity Completed Secondary School or Trade 7%
  37. 37. Connectivity <ul><li>Productivity Improvements </li></ul><ul><ul><li>High Speed Rail </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>High Speed Internet </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Remote Training and Education </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Remote Health Care Treatment </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Remote Workplaces </li></ul></ul></ul>Australia is reaching the trigger points … <ul><li>Metro Rail Systems </li></ul><ul><li>Renewable Energy Leaders (not Laggards) </li></ul>New Economically Viable Cities
  38. 38. HOW DO WE GET THERE? <ul><li>Migration policy to manage projected demand – not reactionary </li></ul><ul><li>Connectivity </li></ul><ul><ul><li>in technology </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>in high speed rail </li></ul></ul><ul><li>World class education </li></ul><ul><li>Renewable energy technology </li></ul><ul><li>A sustainable housing strategy </li></ul><ul><li>And lastly… more people… </li></ul>
  39. 39. Thank you Michael Skelton Australia & New Zealand Research Manager [email_address] Delivering solutions that enhance and sustain the world’s built, natural and social environments

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