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Decision Workshops
Giving you the tools to
understand, plan and
focus on the politics of
decision making
Decision Workshops
Decision Workshops
The problem
2
Decision Workshops
Actors always rehearse…
3
Decision Workshops
Presenters sometimes rehearse …
4
Decision Workshopsand we know that the more we rehearse and practice the
more we improve….
5
Decision Workshopsbut we don’t properly rehearse the most important
“political” interactions
6
Decision WorkshopsInstead there is a tendency to just rely on the unaided
judgment of ourselves or of experts
Even though ...
Decision Workshops
But how good is this?
Decision Workshops
These people were not short of expert advisors when
they chose to invade Iraq and Afghanistan
But had t...
Decision Workshops
The scientific evidence is in:
Decision WorkshopsUsing judgment for political decision making is
little better than random chance
See supporting
evidence...
Decision Workshops
So what can be done?
Decision WorkshopsDecision workshops gives you a way to rehearse and
plan these important political decisions.
13
By using...
Decision Workshops
Development of Confrontation Analysis
14
Decision Workshops
Rupert Smith
Bosnia 1995: Britain's last victorious war?
General
General Rupert Smith: Commander of UN ...
Decision Workshops
Rupert Smith
Working with Rupert Smith…
General
The Late Professor Nigel
Howard
Who formulated Confront...
Decision Workshops
Rupert Smith
Carrying on the good work….
General
Mike Young
Who has refined and built on this
theoretic...
Decision Workshops
Our process
18
Building upon the foundations of the mathematical process of Confrontation
Analysis, Dec...
Decision Workshops
Our process
• Define the problem
• Define players, what they can do, and what
they want to happen
• Pla...
Decision Workshops
The Dilemma Explorer program in action
20
Decision Workshops
21
Firstly, we help
you understand
the scenarios
by structuring
in important key
decisions
The Dilemma ...
Decision Workshops
22
And then gather
an
unambiguous
clear statement
of all parties’
desires
The Dilemma Explorer program ...
Decision Workshops
23
We then decide
what will happen
if no further
progress can be
made
The Dilemma Explorer program in a...
Decision Workshops
24
And indicate
where distrust
is present and
where people
don’t believe
threats or
promises
The Dilemm...
Decision Workshops
The Dilemma Explorer program in action
25
To
produce a
succinct
one
screen
summary
of the
situation
Decision Workshops
The Dilemma Explorer program in action
26
The computer then
automatically shows
the areas of difficulty...
Decision Workshops
27
And can
give an
exhaustive
list of
possible
ways
forward to
eliminate
each
dilemma
The Dilemma Explo...
Decision WorkshopsThe participants use the program on the screen during
the negotiation rehearsal to:
28
• Keep focus on t...
Decision Workshops
Decision Workshops track record
29
Decision Workshops
Decision Workshops held
• Libya during the war :
• For Cranfield University
• Libya at the end of the w...
Decision Workshops
Business deals
• For BAE Systems: 19 projects including:
• Getting funding from UK MoD for an unmanned ...
Decision Workshops
Testimonial
32
“The technology is simple but the underlying
psychology, appealing to the individual’s
n...
Decision Workshops
Summary
• Tried, tested, powerful and unique system.
• Structured way of rehearsing negotiations and
li...
Decision Workshops
Appendix: Evidence to support the benefits of role
play
34
Decision WorkshopsHow good are we at forecasting how others will behave in
conflicts?
Obscure conflicts
Decision Workshops
What we would expect from random chance ?
3 possible answers:
33% probability of
getting it right by
gu...
Decision Workshops
Using judgment is often WORSE then guessing !
Average
Decision Workshops
Using Game Theory fares no better..
Average
Decision Workshops
But a role play achieves substantially better forecasts
Back
Average
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130823 introduction toca06

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Decision workshops... see what I do

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130823 introduction toca06

  1. 1. Decision Workshops Giving you the tools to understand, plan and focus on the politics of decision making Decision Workshops
  2. 2. Decision Workshops The problem 2
  3. 3. Decision Workshops Actors always rehearse… 3
  4. 4. Decision Workshops Presenters sometimes rehearse … 4
  5. 5. Decision Workshopsand we know that the more we rehearse and practice the more we improve…. 5
  6. 6. Decision Workshopsbut we don’t properly rehearse the most important “political” interactions 6
  7. 7. Decision WorkshopsInstead there is a tendency to just rely on the unaided judgment of ourselves or of experts Even though the experts often disagree with each other
  8. 8. Decision Workshops But how good is this?
  9. 9. Decision Workshops These people were not short of expert advisors when they chose to invade Iraq and Afghanistan But had they thought through the consequences ?
  10. 10. Decision Workshops The scientific evidence is in:
  11. 11. Decision WorkshopsUsing judgment for political decision making is little better than random chance See supporting evidence in Appendix at end of presentation
  12. 12. Decision Workshops So what can be done?
  13. 13. Decision WorkshopsDecision workshops gives you a way to rehearse and plan these important political decisions. 13 By using Confrontation Analysis
  14. 14. Decision Workshops Development of Confrontation Analysis 14
  15. 15. Decision Workshops Rupert Smith Bosnia 1995: Britain's last victorious war? General General Rupert Smith: Commander of UN forces in Bosnia: Responsible for breaking siege of Sarajevo. General Smith was not reluctant to tell people how he had succeeded He wrote the book “The Utility of Force” and worked with….
  16. 16. Decision Workshops Rupert Smith Working with Rupert Smith… General The Late Professor Nigel Howard Who formulated Confrontation Analysis from basis of Game Theory. Since Professor Howard’s death the theory has been picked up and developed by…
  17. 17. Decision Workshops Rupert Smith Carrying on the good work…. General Mike Young Who has refined and built on this theoretical framework and encapsulated it in the Dilemma Explorer program to produce a faster, easier and better means of exploring confrontations and rehearsing negotiations.
  18. 18. Decision Workshops Our process 18 Building upon the foundations of the mathematical process of Confrontation Analysis, Decision Workshops has developed a unique modelling method and a proprietary software tool to that can analyse complex, multiplayer issues.
  19. 19. Decision Workshops Our process • Define the problem • Define players, what they can do, and what they want to happen • Plan and develop strategy using Confrontation Analysis • Test and refine strategy in Decision Workshop • Present a clear focused strategy for action 19
  20. 20. Decision Workshops The Dilemma Explorer program in action 20
  21. 21. Decision Workshops 21 Firstly, we help you understand the scenarios by structuring in important key decisions The Dilemma Explorer program in action
  22. 22. Decision Workshops 22 And then gather an unambiguous clear statement of all parties’ desires The Dilemma Explorer program in action
  23. 23. Decision Workshops 23 We then decide what will happen if no further progress can be made The Dilemma Explorer program in action
  24. 24. Decision Workshops 24 And indicate where distrust is present and where people don’t believe threats or promises The Dilemma Explorer program in action
  25. 25. Decision Workshops The Dilemma Explorer program in action 25 To produce a succinct one screen summary of the situation
  26. 26. Decision Workshops The Dilemma Explorer program in action 26 The computer then automatically shows the areas of difficulty known as DILEMMAS that must be eliminated to get a trustworthy agreement
  27. 27. Decision Workshops 27 And can give an exhaustive list of possible ways forward to eliminate each dilemma The Dilemma Explorer program in action
  28. 28. Decision WorkshopsThe participants use the program on the screen during the negotiation rehearsal to: 28 • Keep focus on the subject under negotiation • Give a clear language in which to communicate • Understand the dilemmas and powers of each participant • Indicate when progress has been made by changing the screen • Look for different strategies out of an impasse
  29. 29. Decision Workshops Decision Workshops track record 29
  30. 30. Decision Workshops Decision Workshops held • Libya during the war : • For Cranfield University • Libya at the end of the war : • For Defence Science and Technology Laboratories • Iran Israel and the USA: Dealing with the Iranian Nuclear threat : • For Cranfield University • Follow-on workshop for Defence Intelligence Services • The Euro crisis: • For city of London think tank Z/Yen • (Pending) Middle East government: Examining Sunni / Shia split
  31. 31. Decision Workshops Business deals • For BAE Systems: 19 projects including: • Getting funding from UK MoD for an unmanned aircraft (Mantis) • Impact of Strategic Defence Reviews • A400M project (twice) • Partnering deals for bids
  32. 32. Decision Workshops Testimonial 32 “The technology is simple but the underlying psychology, appealing to the individual’s natural will to win, mirroring real business behaviours, is truly and very powerfully innovative.” Air Vice Marshal Steve Nicholl (Ret’d): Director Military Requirements, BAE Systems
  33. 33. Decision Workshops Summary • Tried, tested, powerful and unique system. • Structured way of rehearsing negotiations and likely outcomes. • High probability of behaviours reflecting reality, enabling cost-effective decision making and the efficient use and deployment of resources. • Useful for government, military, commercial & individual applications. 33
  34. 34. Decision Workshops Appendix: Evidence to support the benefits of role play 34
  35. 35. Decision WorkshopsHow good are we at forecasting how others will behave in conflicts? Obscure conflicts
  36. 36. Decision Workshops What we would expect from random chance ? 3 possible answers: 33% probability of getting it right by guessing 6 answers =17% Average 4 answers =25%
  37. 37. Decision Workshops Using judgment is often WORSE then guessing ! Average
  38. 38. Decision Workshops Using Game Theory fares no better.. Average
  39. 39. Decision Workshops But a role play achieves substantially better forecasts Back Average

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