Hurricane Season 2010 Tony Loconte Montgomery County Office of Emergency Management and Homeland Security
 
Season Peak
 
 
Return frequency
                                      3,370,000,000  2 2003 ISABEL  (Mid-Atlantic) 12     4,500,000,000  2 1999 FLOYD  (Mi...
 
CSU <ul><li>ATLANTIC BASIN SEASONAL HURRICANE FORECAST FOR 2010  </li></ul><ul><li>Forecast Parameter and 1950-2000  </li>...
CSU <ul><li>PROBABILITIES FOR AT LEAST ONE MAJOR (CATEGORY 3-4-5) HURRICANE LANDFALL ON EACH OF THE FOLLOWING UNITED STATE...
Accuweather <ul><li>AccuWeather foresees 16 to 18 named storms forming in the Atlantic Ocean, with five becoming hurricane...
Other outlooks <ul><li>WSI Inc. in January predicted 13 named storms and seven hurricanes, three of them major .  </li></u...
 
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Hurricane season 2010

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Review of the the 2010 Hurricane Season Forecast

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Hurricane season 2010

  1. 1. Hurricane Season 2010 Tony Loconte Montgomery County Office of Emergency Management and Homeland Security
  2. 3. Season Peak
  3. 6. Return frequency
  4. 7.                                       3,370,000,000 2 2003 ISABEL (Mid-Atlantic) 12     4,500,000,000 2 1999 FLOYD (Mid-Atlantic & NE U.S.) 11     5,000,000,000 @ TS 2001 ALLISON (N TX) 10     6,900,000,000 3 2004 JEANNE (FL) 9     7,000,000,000 4 1989 HUGO (SC) 8     8,900,000,000 2 2004 FRANCES (FL) 7     11,300,000,000 3 2005 RITA (SW LA, N TX) 6     14,200,000,000 3 2004 IVAN (AL/NW FL) 5     15,000,000,000 4 2004 CHARLEY (SW FL) 4     20,600,000,000 3 2005 WILMA (S FL) 3     26,500,000,000 5 1992 ANDREW (SE FL/SE LA) 2     $81,000,000,000 3 2005 KATRINA (SE FL, SE LA, MS) 1     DAMAGE (U.S.) CATEGORY YEAR HURRICANE RANK  
  5. 9. CSU <ul><li>ATLANTIC BASIN SEASONAL HURRICANE FORECAST FOR 2010 </li></ul><ul><li>Forecast Parameter and 1950-2000 </li></ul><ul><li>Climatology (in parentheses) </li></ul><ul><li>Issue Date 9 December 2009 </li></ul><ul><li>Issue Date 7 April 2010 </li></ul><ul><li>Issue Date 2 June 2010 </li></ul><ul><li>Named Storms (NS) (9.6) 11-16 15 18 </li></ul><ul><li>Named Storm Days (NSD) (49.1)51-75 75 90 </li></ul><ul><li>Hurricanes (H) (5.9) 6-8 8 10 </li></ul><ul><li>Hurricane Days (HD) (24.5) 24-39 35 40 </li></ul><ul><li>Major Hurricanes (MH) (2.3) 3-5 4 5 </li></ul><ul><li>Major Hurricane Days (MHD) 6-12 10 13 </li></ul><ul><li>Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) (96.1) 100-162 150 185 </li></ul><ul><li>Net Tropical Cyclone Activity (NTC) (100%) 108-172 160 195 </li></ul>
  6. 10. CSU <ul><li>PROBABILITIES FOR AT LEAST ONE MAJOR (CATEGORY 3-4-5) HURRICANE LANDFALL ON EACH OF THE FOLLOWING UNITED STATES COASTAL AREAS: </li></ul><ul><li>Entire U.S. coastline - 76% (average for last century is 52%) </li></ul><ul><li>U.S. East Coast Including Peninsula Florida - 51% (average for last century is 31%) </li></ul><ul><li>Gulf Coast from the Florida </li></ul>
  7. 11. Accuweather <ul><li>AccuWeather foresees 16 to 18 named storms forming in the Atlantic Ocean, with five becoming hurricanes and two or three of them going ashore in the United States as major systems. In all, 15 storms probably will be in the western Atlantic or the Gulf of Mexico, and seven may make landfall in the U.S., said Joe Bastardi, chief long-range and hurricane forecaster. </li></ul>
  8. 12. Other outlooks <ul><li>WSI Inc. in January predicted 13 named storms and seven hurricanes, three of them major . </li></ul><ul><li>The Commodity Weather Group called for 11 named storms, as many as five of them hurricanes. </li></ul>

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