SlideShare a Scribd company logo
1 of 40
The Physics of Influence
Building, Nurturing, and Leveraging Your Best Kept Marketing Secret



            Michael Wu Ph.D.
            Principal Scientist of Analytics
            Lithium Technologies Inc.


            SugarCon: April 6th, 2011




                                          ‐1‐   | 16:14               @mich8elwu
Session Agenda
 Influence basics
  – What is influence? Who are the influencers?
  – What does influence mean to your business
 Influence mechanics
  – Do influencers matter? How? How much?
  – How to find influencers?
 Advance topics on influence
  – How to work with influencers without working with them?




                          ‐2‐   | 16:14               @mich8elwu
What is influence?
 Webster definitions:
  – The act or power of producing an effect without apparent 
    exertion of force or direct exercise of command.
  – The power or capacity of causing an effect in indirect or 
    intangible ways : sway




                           ‐3‐   | 16:14                 @mich8elwu
What is influence?
 Webster definitions:
  – The act or power of producing an effect without apparent 
    exertion of force or direct exercise of command.
  – The power or capacity of causing an effect in indirect or 
    intangible ways : sway


 Must have some effects
  – Effect on some target audience (target)
  – Effects don’t always have to have actions




                           ‐4‐   | 16:14                 @mich8elwu
What is influence?
 Webster definitions:
  – The act or power of producing an effect without apparent 
    exertion of force or direct exercise of command.
  – The power or capacity of causing an effect in indirect or 
    intangible ways : sway


 It matters how you produce the effects
  –   No carrot: no money
  –   No stick: no force/coercion
  –   No annoyance: no spam/frustration
  –   No trick: no deception/hidden agenda

                           ‐5‐   | 16:14                 @mich8elwu
What is influence?
 Webster definitions:
  – The act or power of producing an effect without apparent 
    exertion of force or direct exercise of command.
  – The power or capacity of causing an effect in indirect or 
    intangible ways : sway


 Definition for businesses: 
  – The ability to cause a change in thought (sentiment, 
    opinion, etc.) OR behavior (purchase, referral, etc.) 
    through non‐coercive and transparent means where the 
    targets want the changes even with no monetary 
    compensation
                           ‐6‐   | 16:14                 @mich8elwu
Who are the influencers?




Kevin Smith (2010):        Dave Carroll (2009):   Jeff Jarvis (2005):
Too fat to fly Southwest   United Breaks Guitar   Dell Lies, Dell Sucks
Channel=Twitter            Channel=YouTube        Channel=Blog

    They were mistreated by some companies
     – Their influence on social media  cause a major PR crisis
     – Bad PR + significant financial damage (in some cases)
                                ‐7‐   | 16:14                        @mich8elwu
Who are the influencers?
 But influencers ≠ celebrities
  – Because influence ≠ popularity


 Other confounding facts about influencers:
  – Everyone can influence someone, so anyone can be an 
    influencer.
  – Influencers do not fall into any standard demographics 
    and/or technographic segmentations.
  – There are no universal influencers.




                           ‐8‐   | 16:14                 @mich8elwu
Who are the influencers?
 Influencers =
  – Superusers and product experts
  – Advocates who will speak on your behalf
  – Evangelist of your brand


 Influencers for marketers =
  – People with significantly greater ability to influence
    —cause a change in thought OR behavior through non‐
    coercive and transparent means where the targets want 
    the changes even with no monetary compensation


                          ‐9‐   | 16:14                @mich8elwu
What does this mean to your business?

                        engage/ 
                       empower




                                                                               mass public
                                                                               consumers
                                                                   awareness
                                    purchase




                                                        interest
                                               desire
                                                                                                 brand X




             potential (+) influence = promoters                                             potential (−) influence = detractors
                                                                                                                         competitors’ 
 your superusers    your brand        your                                     unawared                competitors’    brand advocates 
(product experts)    advocates     customers                                   consumers                customers        (your brand 
                    (evangelist)                                                                                          detractors)



                                                        ‐ 10 ‐ | 16:14                                                   @mich8elwu
What does this mean to your business?
 Influencers help you:
  – Drive effective WOM marketing/sales
     • Move consumers through your purchase funnel       increase sales
  – Acquire customers from your competitors
  – Cut cost
     • Influence other customers to self‐help + help each other




                              ‐ 11 ‐ | 16:14                      @mich8elwu
Session Agenda
 Influence basics
  – What is influence? Who are the influencers?
  – What does influence mean to your business
 Influence mechanics
  – Do influencers matter? How? How much?
  – How to find influencers?
 Advance topics on influence
  – How to work with influencers without working with them?




                          ‐ 12 ‐ | 16:14              @mich8elwu
Do influencers matter?

                              vs.
 Malcolm Gladwell                                    Duncan Watts
(best‐selling author)                                 (sociologist)
  Influencers matter                        Influencers don’t matter
   – If they say/do something               – Seeding a message from 
     thousands and millions                   any random person 
     will hear and follow                     eventually reaches the 
                                              same number of people 
                                              as seeding from an 
                                              influencer

                           ‐ 13 ‐ | 16:14                        @mich8elwu
Do influencers matter?
 The effect of influencers is not the number of target they can 
 reach. It is the speed at which they can reach those targets.
 Number of targets reached is a very bad way to measure 
 influence. What is a better way?

 Quantifying the value of WOM. Join work with
  – Prof. Barak Libai      MIT Sloan School of Management
                           Recanati B‐School, Tel Aviv Univ
  – Prof. Eitan Muller     NYU Stern School of Business 
                           Recanati B‐School, Tel Aviv Univ
  – Prof. Renana Peres     The Wharton School, U Penn
                           Hebrew University of Jerusalem

                           ‐ 14 ‐ | 16:14                  @mich8elwu
How does WOM turn into value?
    W     O    M




                              ?
 Agent‐based CLV model based on real network structure 
 from 12 social graphs (6 from Lithium)
 CLV model: Takes into account of
  – Network value of referral (V. Kumar)
  – Discount rate of money, b/c lifetime of customers can be very 
    long.

                             ‐ 15 ‐ | 16:14                   @mich8elwu
How does WOM turn into value?
    W    O     M




                             ?
 Agent‐based CLV model based on real network structure 
 from 12 social graphs (6 from Lithium)
 Simulation parameters for investigating the effect of:
  – Influencers: Influencer seeding vs. random seeding
  – Brand equity: Brand monopoly vs. competing brand
  – Seeding program size: 0.5% to 5%

                            ‐ 16 ‐ | 16:14               @mich8elwu
Summary of Lithium‐only data
  Seeding Program
                                                                                    Competing
         Random         10.3%
                                                                                    brands
                                                          Gain via acceleration
       Influencer           17.4%
                                                          Gain via acquisition

                                                                                    Brand
         Random                                       86.8%                         monopoly

       Influencer                                                        113%

                    0               20   40          80            100            120



 Result 1: Two mechanisms combine to create 
 WOM values
             Acquisition of customers
             Acceleration of adoption
                                         ‐ 17 ‐ | 16:14                                         @mich8elwu
Summary of Lithium‐only data
  Seeding Program
                                                                                     Competing
         Random         10.3%
                                                                                     brands
                                                           Gain via acceleration
       Influencer           17.4%
                                                           Gain via acquisition

                                                                                     Brand
         Random                                        86.8%                         monopoly

       Influencer                                                         113%

                    0               20    40          80            100            120



 Result 2: Influencer seeding increases gain


                                         49.4%
                                          ‐ 18 ‐ | 16:14                                         @mich8elwu
Summary of Lithium‐only data
  Seeding Program
                                                                                    Competing
         Random         10.3%
                                                                                    brands
                                                          Gain via acceleration
       Influencer           17.4%
                                                          Gain via acquisition

                                                                                    Brand
         Random                                       86.8%                         monopoly

       Influencer                                                        113%

                    0               20   40          80            100            120



 Result 3: First mover advantage is huge


                                         7.5x
                                         ‐ 19 ‐ | 16:14                                         @mich8elwu
What does this mean to your business?

                        engage/ 
                       empower




                                                                               mass public
                                                                               consumers
                                                                   awareness
                                    purchase




                                                        interest
                                               desire
                                                                                                 brand X




             potential (+) influence = promoters                                             potential (−) influence = detractors
                                                                                                                         competitors’ 
 your superusers    your brand        your                                     unawared                competitors’    brand advocates 
(product experts)    advocates     customers                                   consumers                customers        (your brand 
                    (evangelist)                                                                                          detractors)



                                                        ‐ 20 ‐ | 16:14                                                   @mich8elwu
Finding influencers involves 2 parties
 Influencer
            Domain Credibility: The influencer's expertise in a specific domain 
              of knowledge.
            High Bandwidth: The influencer's ability to transmit his expert 
               knowledge through a social media channel.
            Content Relevance: How closely the target's information needs 
               coincide with the influencer's expertise.
            Timing: The ability of the influencer to deliver his expert knowledge to 
               the target at the time when the target needed it.
            Channel Alignment: The amount of channel overlap between the 
               target and the influencer.
            Target Confidence: How much the target trusts the influencer with 
                respect to his information needs

   Target
                                ‐ 21 ‐ | 16:14                             @mich8elwu
Finding the potential influencers




          High       Potential        Credible
        Bandwidth   influencer         users
          users


                     ‐ 22 ‐ | 16:14              @mich8elwu
Importance of relevance & timing
                                       Friendship
                                       Relevant
                                       relationship
   FanGirl                             w/in 1 month
                      WizKid
                                       1 month ago
                                       3 month ago
                                       6 month ago


             PopGuy




                      ‐ 23 ‐ | 16:14          @mich8elwu
Finding influencers: intelligent filtering
Domain credibility


High bandwidth


Content relevance


Timing relevance


Channel alignment


Confidence (trust)


                     ‐ 24 ‐ | 16:14      @mich8elwu
Session Agenda
 Influence basics
  – What is influence? Who are the influencers?
  – What does influence mean to your business
 Influence mechanics
  – Do influencers matter? How? How much?
  – How to find influencers?
 Advance topics on influence
  – How to work with influencers without working with them?




                          ‐ 25 ‐ | 16:14              @mich8elwu
Now you have influencers, so what?
 You shouldn’t:
  – Pay them, or blatantly promote them
     • People will find out    Not authentic     They will lose credibility
  – Work them like your employees
     • They will hate you and turn against you
 How to influence the influencers?
  – Remember: No carrot, no stick, no annoyance, no tricks!
 How do we work with them without actually working 
 with them?
  – Do you just leave them be and let WOM propagate?


                               ‐ 26 ‐ | 16:14                          @mich8elwu
Now you have influencers, so what?

                                 What about WOM?




                ‐ 27 ‐ | 16:14                 @mich8elwu
Uncoordinated WOM has low efficacy
 WOM do not propagate vary far. What’s wrong?
  – Passionate influencers are too far apart.
  – WOM decays before reaching another influencer who will 
    pass it on.
  – Over time, even the passionate influencers lose their 
    enthusiasm.


 The problem is distance and time. How can we fix it?
  – Shorten the distance between the passionate influencers.
     • In‐Real‐Life (IRL) meet‐up
     • Community


                              ‐ 28 ‐ | 16:14            @mich8elwu
Community
  WOM
Community WOM is effective
 Community can overcome the decaying effect of 
 distance and time.
  – Key: High concentration of passionate consumers
  – Many of them + close proximity to each other


 Result:
  – Ongoing conversation           heightens enthusiasm
  – Persistent content             prolonged message lifetime
  – Ideation and innovation        increase relevance and adoption



                         ‐ 30 ‐ | 16:14                    @mich8elwu
Community WOM




            ‐ 31 ‐ | 16:14   @mich8elwu
Community WOM




            ‐ 32 ‐ | 16:14   @mich8elwu
A repeatable influencer strategy
 Co‐create value with them using a community

 Community
  – Provide audience for the influencers
  – Amplify their influence
  – Cultivates influencers: Allow ordinary customers to gain 
    status/recognition  build their influence


 Community members + sponsors
  – Benefit from influencers’ domain expertise
  – Effective WOM + cut support cost
                           ‐ 33 ‐ | 16:14                 @mich8elwu
Customers
 Advocates
Evolution of a customer community




                ‐ 35 ‐ | 16:14      @mich8elwu
Evolution of a customer community
  Identify rising 
superusers as their 
 influence grows




Influence ≠ number 
   of connections

                       ‐ 36 ‐ | 16:14   @mich8elwu
Community WOM
                             What about the 
                             greater social web?




            ‐ 37 ‐ | 16:14                  @mich8elwu
Community WOM




            ‐ 38 ‐ | 16:14   @mich8elwu
WOM Beyond
Community
Thank you
 Resources: blog+case study+whitepaper
 http://lithosphere.lithium.com/t5/a/bg-p/MikeW
 http://pages.lithium.com/word-of-mouth-marketing.html




                           ‐ 40 ‐ | 16:14                @mich8elwu

More Related Content

Viewers also liked

Luminous issue1 june_2008
Luminous issue1 june_2008Luminous issue1 june_2008
Luminous issue1 june_2008David Aloi
 
Irwin Seating Lecture Room Brochure (2008 Edition)
Irwin Seating Lecture Room Brochure (2008 Edition)Irwin Seating Lecture Room Brochure (2008 Edition)
Irwin Seating Lecture Room Brochure (2008 Edition)LongoLabs
 
Masteel Accounting
Masteel  AccountingMasteel  Accounting
Masteel AccountingDevin Wong
 
Gripen: The Face of Success
Gripen: The Face of SuccessGripen: The Face of Success
Gripen: The Face of SuccessSaab AB
 
Customer Training: How to Select the Best LMS for Your Customer Learning Prog...
Customer Training: How to Select the Best LMS for Your Customer Learning Prog...Customer Training: How to Select the Best LMS for Your Customer Learning Prog...
Customer Training: How to Select the Best LMS for Your Customer Learning Prog...Expertus Inc.
 
Informationsmöte Hagastaden 23 november
Informationsmöte Hagastaden 23 novemberInformationsmöte Hagastaden 23 november
Informationsmöte Hagastaden 23 novemberHagastaden Stockholm
 
LMS Innovation: Gamification and Mobile-First Approach
LMS Innovation: Gamification and Mobile-First ApproachLMS Innovation: Gamification and Mobile-First Approach
LMS Innovation: Gamification and Mobile-First ApproachExpertus Inc.
 
Designing iPad Interfaces - new navigation schemas
Designing iPad Interfaces - new navigation schemasDesigning iPad Interfaces - new navigation schemas
Designing iPad Interfaces - new navigation schemasLynn Teo
 
Irwin Seating Sweets Brochure (2006)
Irwin Seating Sweets Brochure (2006)Irwin Seating Sweets Brochure (2006)
Irwin Seating Sweets Brochure (2006)LongoLabs
 
Irwin Seating Auditorium Brochure (2008 Edition)
Irwin Seating Auditorium Brochure (2008 Edition)Irwin Seating Auditorium Brochure (2008 Edition)
Irwin Seating Auditorium Brochure (2008 Edition)LongoLabs
 
Irwin Seating Theater Seating Brochure (2009 Edition)
Irwin Seating Theater Seating Brochure (2009 Edition)Irwin Seating Theater Seating Brochure (2009 Edition)
Irwin Seating Theater Seating Brochure (2009 Edition)LongoLabs
 
AccionAR_2014_Spreads
AccionAR_2014_SpreadsAccionAR_2014_Spreads
AccionAR_2014_SpreadsJordan Coriza
 
Scaling Pinterest
Scaling PinterestScaling Pinterest
Scaling PinterestC4Media
 

Viewers also liked (18)

Luminous issue1 june_2008
Luminous issue1 june_2008Luminous issue1 june_2008
Luminous issue1 june_2008
 
Irwin Seating Lecture Room Brochure (2008 Edition)
Irwin Seating Lecture Room Brochure (2008 Edition)Irwin Seating Lecture Room Brochure (2008 Edition)
Irwin Seating Lecture Room Brochure (2008 Edition)
 
project management
project managementproject management
project management
 
Masteel Accounting
Masteel  AccountingMasteel  Accounting
Masteel Accounting
 
Expertus 2010 Clipbook
Expertus 2010 ClipbookExpertus 2010 Clipbook
Expertus 2010 Clipbook
 
Gripen: The Face of Success
Gripen: The Face of SuccessGripen: The Face of Success
Gripen: The Face of Success
 
Portfolio
PortfolioPortfolio
Portfolio
 
Customer Training: How to Select the Best LMS for Your Customer Learning Prog...
Customer Training: How to Select the Best LMS for Your Customer Learning Prog...Customer Training: How to Select the Best LMS for Your Customer Learning Prog...
Customer Training: How to Select the Best LMS for Your Customer Learning Prog...
 
Informationsmöte Hagastaden 23 november
Informationsmöte Hagastaden 23 novemberInformationsmöte Hagastaden 23 november
Informationsmöte Hagastaden 23 november
 
Bcm corporate brochure issue 17 eng final
Bcm corporate brochure issue 17 eng finalBcm corporate brochure issue 17 eng final
Bcm corporate brochure issue 17 eng final
 
LMS Innovation: Gamification and Mobile-First Approach
LMS Innovation: Gamification and Mobile-First ApproachLMS Innovation: Gamification and Mobile-First Approach
LMS Innovation: Gamification and Mobile-First Approach
 
Designing iPad Interfaces - new navigation schemas
Designing iPad Interfaces - new navigation schemasDesigning iPad Interfaces - new navigation schemas
Designing iPad Interfaces - new navigation schemas
 
Irwin Seating Sweets Brochure (2006)
Irwin Seating Sweets Brochure (2006)Irwin Seating Sweets Brochure (2006)
Irwin Seating Sweets Brochure (2006)
 
Irwin Seating Auditorium Brochure (2008 Edition)
Irwin Seating Auditorium Brochure (2008 Edition)Irwin Seating Auditorium Brochure (2008 Edition)
Irwin Seating Auditorium Brochure (2008 Edition)
 
Mobile gamification
Mobile gamificationMobile gamification
Mobile gamification
 
Irwin Seating Theater Seating Brochure (2009 Edition)
Irwin Seating Theater Seating Brochure (2009 Edition)Irwin Seating Theater Seating Brochure (2009 Edition)
Irwin Seating Theater Seating Brochure (2009 Edition)
 
AccionAR_2014_Spreads
AccionAR_2014_SpreadsAccionAR_2014_Spreads
AccionAR_2014_Spreads
 
Scaling Pinterest
Scaling PinterestScaling Pinterest
Scaling Pinterest
 

Similar to 2011 04-06 sugar con physics of influence-v03p

Instagram Influencer Marketing Guide.pdf
Instagram Influencer Marketing Guide.pdfInstagram Influencer Marketing Guide.pdf
Instagram Influencer Marketing Guide.pdfanandjob26
 
A new way to measure word of-mouth marketing
A new way to measure word of-mouth marketingA new way to measure word of-mouth marketing
A new way to measure word of-mouth marketingHulla Girl
 
Cockroaches, the Value of Co-creation, & Reflection in #NewMR by Nacho Racca ...
Cockroaches, the Value of Co-creation, & Reflection in #NewMR by Nacho Racca ...Cockroaches, the Value of Co-creation, & Reflection in #NewMR by Nacho Racca ...
Cockroaches, the Value of Co-creation, & Reflection in #NewMR by Nacho Racca ...InsightInnovation
 
Influencer Marketing: Guide to Brand Safety
Influencer Marketing: Guide to Brand SafetyInfluencer Marketing: Guide to Brand Safety
Influencer Marketing: Guide to Brand SafetyJessica Hulett
 
Multi Touch Conversion Tracking
Multi Touch Conversion TrackingMulti Touch Conversion Tracking
Multi Touch Conversion TrackingKSM Digital
 
Integrated marketing communication
Integrated  marketing communicationIntegrated  marketing communication
Integrated marketing communicationAshish Ranjan
 
21 reasons you should use influencer marketing
21 reasons you should use influencer marketing 21 reasons you should use influencer marketing
21 reasons you should use influencer marketing Naci Yilmaz
 
What is Influencer Marketing
What is Influencer Marketing What is Influencer Marketing
What is Influencer Marketing InstaBrand
 
Role of Influencer Marketing in Social Media Marketing.docx
Role of Influencer Marketing in Social Media Marketing.docxRole of Influencer Marketing in Social Media Marketing.docx
Role of Influencer Marketing in Social Media Marketing.docxbhartijadoun1007
 
Influence 2.0. The future of Influencer Marketing
Influence 2.0. The future of Influencer Marketing Influence 2.0. The future of Influencer Marketing
Influence 2.0. The future of Influencer Marketing Ninja Van Vietnam
 
What is Influencer Marketing?
What is Influencer Marketing?What is Influencer Marketing?
What is Influencer Marketing?Jason B. Weber
 
Social Media Is Mature - No It Isn't
Social Media Is Mature - No It Isn'tSocial Media Is Mature - No It Isn't
Social Media Is Mature - No It Isn'tDeep Focus
 
Navigating Trends-The Future of Influencer Marketing.pdf
Navigating Trends-The Future of Influencer Marketing.pdfNavigating Trends-The Future of Influencer Marketing.pdf
Navigating Trends-The Future of Influencer Marketing.pdfSaletancy
 
Planning and measuring social media strategies
Planning and measuring social media strategiesPlanning and measuring social media strategies
Planning and measuring social media strategiesLander Janssens
 
How to do Influencer Marketing
How to do Influencer MarketingHow to do Influencer Marketing
How to do Influencer MarketingTed Politidis
 

Similar to 2011 04-06 sugar con physics of influence-v03p (20)

Instagram Influencer Marketing Guide.pdf
Instagram Influencer Marketing Guide.pdfInstagram Influencer Marketing Guide.pdf
Instagram Influencer Marketing Guide.pdf
 
The Future of Influence
The Future of InfluenceThe Future of Influence
The Future of Influence
 
The conversationloop july2011
The conversationloop july2011The conversationloop july2011
The conversationloop july2011
 
A new way to measure word of-mouth marketing
A new way to measure word of-mouth marketingA new way to measure word of-mouth marketing
A new way to measure word of-mouth marketing
 
Martini whitepaper 62011
Martini whitepaper 62011Martini whitepaper 62011
Martini whitepaper 62011
 
Respect My Authoritah!
Respect My Authoritah!Respect My Authoritah!
Respect My Authoritah!
 
Cockroaches, the Value of Co-creation, & Reflection in #NewMR by Nacho Racca ...
Cockroaches, the Value of Co-creation, & Reflection in #NewMR by Nacho Racca ...Cockroaches, the Value of Co-creation, & Reflection in #NewMR by Nacho Racca ...
Cockroaches, the Value of Co-creation, & Reflection in #NewMR by Nacho Racca ...
 
Influencer Marketing: Guide to Brand Safety
Influencer Marketing: Guide to Brand SafetyInfluencer Marketing: Guide to Brand Safety
Influencer Marketing: Guide to Brand Safety
 
Multi Touch Conversion Tracking
Multi Touch Conversion TrackingMulti Touch Conversion Tracking
Multi Touch Conversion Tracking
 
Integrated marketing communication
Integrated  marketing communicationIntegrated  marketing communication
Integrated marketing communication
 
21 reasons you should use influencer marketing
21 reasons you should use influencer marketing 21 reasons you should use influencer marketing
21 reasons you should use influencer marketing
 
Yelo : Carole Lamarque
Yelo : Carole LamarqueYelo : Carole Lamarque
Yelo : Carole Lamarque
 
What is Influencer Marketing
What is Influencer Marketing What is Influencer Marketing
What is Influencer Marketing
 
Role of Influencer Marketing in Social Media Marketing.docx
Role of Influencer Marketing in Social Media Marketing.docxRole of Influencer Marketing in Social Media Marketing.docx
Role of Influencer Marketing in Social Media Marketing.docx
 
Influence 2.0. The future of Influencer Marketing
Influence 2.0. The future of Influencer Marketing Influence 2.0. The future of Influencer Marketing
Influence 2.0. The future of Influencer Marketing
 
What is Influencer Marketing?
What is Influencer Marketing?What is Influencer Marketing?
What is Influencer Marketing?
 
Social Media Is Mature - No It Isn't
Social Media Is Mature - No It Isn'tSocial Media Is Mature - No It Isn't
Social Media Is Mature - No It Isn't
 
Navigating Trends-The Future of Influencer Marketing.pdf
Navigating Trends-The Future of Influencer Marketing.pdfNavigating Trends-The Future of Influencer Marketing.pdf
Navigating Trends-The Future of Influencer Marketing.pdf
 
Planning and measuring social media strategies
Planning and measuring social media strategiesPlanning and measuring social media strategies
Planning and measuring social media strategies
 
How to do Influencer Marketing
How to do Influencer MarketingHow to do Influencer Marketing
How to do Influencer Marketing
 

Recently uploaded

Event-Driven Architecture Masterclass: Engineering a Robust, High-performance...
Event-Driven Architecture Masterclass: Engineering a Robust, High-performance...Event-Driven Architecture Masterclass: Engineering a Robust, High-performance...
Event-Driven Architecture Masterclass: Engineering a Robust, High-performance...ScyllaDB
 
Intro to Passkeys and the State of Passwordless.pptx
Intro to Passkeys and the State of Passwordless.pptxIntro to Passkeys and the State of Passwordless.pptx
Intro to Passkeys and the State of Passwordless.pptxFIDO Alliance
 
Google I/O Extended 2024 Warsaw
Google I/O Extended 2024 WarsawGoogle I/O Extended 2024 Warsaw
Google I/O Extended 2024 WarsawGDSC PJATK
 
Long journey of Ruby Standard library at RubyKaigi 2024
Long journey of Ruby Standard library at RubyKaigi 2024Long journey of Ruby Standard library at RubyKaigi 2024
Long journey of Ruby Standard library at RubyKaigi 2024Hiroshi SHIBATA
 
ASRock Industrial FDO Solutions in Action for Industrial Edge AI _ Kenny at A...
ASRock Industrial FDO Solutions in Action for Industrial Edge AI _ Kenny at A...ASRock Industrial FDO Solutions in Action for Industrial Edge AI _ Kenny at A...
ASRock Industrial FDO Solutions in Action for Industrial Edge AI _ Kenny at A...FIDO Alliance
 
2024 May Patch Tuesday
2024 May Patch Tuesday2024 May Patch Tuesday
2024 May Patch TuesdayIvanti
 
Your enemies use GenAI too - staying ahead of fraud with Neo4j
Your enemies use GenAI too - staying ahead of fraud with Neo4jYour enemies use GenAI too - staying ahead of fraud with Neo4j
Your enemies use GenAI too - staying ahead of fraud with Neo4jNeo4j
 
AI mind or machine power point presentation
AI mind or machine power point presentationAI mind or machine power point presentation
AI mind or machine power point presentationyogeshlabana357357
 
How we scaled to 80K users by doing nothing!.pdf
How we scaled to 80K users by doing nothing!.pdfHow we scaled to 80K users by doing nothing!.pdf
How we scaled to 80K users by doing nothing!.pdfSrushith Repakula
 
ADP Passwordless Journey Case Study.pptx
ADP Passwordless Journey Case Study.pptxADP Passwordless Journey Case Study.pptx
ADP Passwordless Journey Case Study.pptxFIDO Alliance
 
Design Guidelines for Passkeys 2024.pptx
Design Guidelines for Passkeys 2024.pptxDesign Guidelines for Passkeys 2024.pptx
Design Guidelines for Passkeys 2024.pptxFIDO Alliance
 
WebAssembly is Key to Better LLM Performance
WebAssembly is Key to Better LLM PerformanceWebAssembly is Key to Better LLM Performance
WebAssembly is Key to Better LLM PerformanceSamy Fodil
 
FDO for Camera, Sensor and Networking Device – Commercial Solutions from VinC...
FDO for Camera, Sensor and Networking Device – Commercial Solutions from VinC...FDO for Camera, Sensor and Networking Device – Commercial Solutions from VinC...
FDO for Camera, Sensor and Networking Device – Commercial Solutions from VinC...FIDO Alliance
 
Introduction to FDO and How It works Applications _ Richard at FIDO Alliance.pdf
Introduction to FDO and How It works Applications _ Richard at FIDO Alliance.pdfIntroduction to FDO and How It works Applications _ Richard at FIDO Alliance.pdf
Introduction to FDO and How It works Applications _ Richard at FIDO Alliance.pdfFIDO Alliance
 
Secure Zero Touch enabled Edge compute with Dell NativeEdge via FDO _ Brad at...
Secure Zero Touch enabled Edge compute with Dell NativeEdge via FDO _ Brad at...Secure Zero Touch enabled Edge compute with Dell NativeEdge via FDO _ Brad at...
Secure Zero Touch enabled Edge compute with Dell NativeEdge via FDO _ Brad at...FIDO Alliance
 
Where to Learn More About FDO _ Richard at FIDO Alliance.pdf
Where to Learn More About FDO _ Richard at FIDO Alliance.pdfWhere to Learn More About FDO _ Richard at FIDO Alliance.pdf
Where to Learn More About FDO _ Richard at FIDO Alliance.pdfFIDO Alliance
 
How Red Hat Uses FDO in Device Lifecycle _ Costin and Vitaliy at Red Hat.pdf
How Red Hat Uses FDO in Device Lifecycle _ Costin and Vitaliy at Red Hat.pdfHow Red Hat Uses FDO in Device Lifecycle _ Costin and Vitaliy at Red Hat.pdf
How Red Hat Uses FDO in Device Lifecycle _ Costin and Vitaliy at Red Hat.pdfFIDO Alliance
 
Continuing Bonds Through AI: A Hermeneutic Reflection on Thanabots
Continuing Bonds Through AI: A Hermeneutic Reflection on ThanabotsContinuing Bonds Through AI: A Hermeneutic Reflection on Thanabots
Continuing Bonds Through AI: A Hermeneutic Reflection on ThanabotsLeah Henrickson
 
Portal Kombat : extension du réseau de propagande russe
Portal Kombat : extension du réseau de propagande russePortal Kombat : extension du réseau de propagande russe
Portal Kombat : extension du réseau de propagande russe中 央社
 
Microsoft CSP Briefing Pre-Engagement - Questionnaire
Microsoft CSP Briefing Pre-Engagement - QuestionnaireMicrosoft CSP Briefing Pre-Engagement - Questionnaire
Microsoft CSP Briefing Pre-Engagement - QuestionnaireExakis Nelite
 

Recently uploaded (20)

Event-Driven Architecture Masterclass: Engineering a Robust, High-performance...
Event-Driven Architecture Masterclass: Engineering a Robust, High-performance...Event-Driven Architecture Masterclass: Engineering a Robust, High-performance...
Event-Driven Architecture Masterclass: Engineering a Robust, High-performance...
 
Intro to Passkeys and the State of Passwordless.pptx
Intro to Passkeys and the State of Passwordless.pptxIntro to Passkeys and the State of Passwordless.pptx
Intro to Passkeys and the State of Passwordless.pptx
 
Google I/O Extended 2024 Warsaw
Google I/O Extended 2024 WarsawGoogle I/O Extended 2024 Warsaw
Google I/O Extended 2024 Warsaw
 
Long journey of Ruby Standard library at RubyKaigi 2024
Long journey of Ruby Standard library at RubyKaigi 2024Long journey of Ruby Standard library at RubyKaigi 2024
Long journey of Ruby Standard library at RubyKaigi 2024
 
ASRock Industrial FDO Solutions in Action for Industrial Edge AI _ Kenny at A...
ASRock Industrial FDO Solutions in Action for Industrial Edge AI _ Kenny at A...ASRock Industrial FDO Solutions in Action for Industrial Edge AI _ Kenny at A...
ASRock Industrial FDO Solutions in Action for Industrial Edge AI _ Kenny at A...
 
2024 May Patch Tuesday
2024 May Patch Tuesday2024 May Patch Tuesday
2024 May Patch Tuesday
 
Your enemies use GenAI too - staying ahead of fraud with Neo4j
Your enemies use GenAI too - staying ahead of fraud with Neo4jYour enemies use GenAI too - staying ahead of fraud with Neo4j
Your enemies use GenAI too - staying ahead of fraud with Neo4j
 
AI mind or machine power point presentation
AI mind or machine power point presentationAI mind or machine power point presentation
AI mind or machine power point presentation
 
How we scaled to 80K users by doing nothing!.pdf
How we scaled to 80K users by doing nothing!.pdfHow we scaled to 80K users by doing nothing!.pdf
How we scaled to 80K users by doing nothing!.pdf
 
ADP Passwordless Journey Case Study.pptx
ADP Passwordless Journey Case Study.pptxADP Passwordless Journey Case Study.pptx
ADP Passwordless Journey Case Study.pptx
 
Design Guidelines for Passkeys 2024.pptx
Design Guidelines for Passkeys 2024.pptxDesign Guidelines for Passkeys 2024.pptx
Design Guidelines for Passkeys 2024.pptx
 
WebAssembly is Key to Better LLM Performance
WebAssembly is Key to Better LLM PerformanceWebAssembly is Key to Better LLM Performance
WebAssembly is Key to Better LLM Performance
 
FDO for Camera, Sensor and Networking Device – Commercial Solutions from VinC...
FDO for Camera, Sensor and Networking Device – Commercial Solutions from VinC...FDO for Camera, Sensor and Networking Device – Commercial Solutions from VinC...
FDO for Camera, Sensor and Networking Device – Commercial Solutions from VinC...
 
Introduction to FDO and How It works Applications _ Richard at FIDO Alliance.pdf
Introduction to FDO and How It works Applications _ Richard at FIDO Alliance.pdfIntroduction to FDO and How It works Applications _ Richard at FIDO Alliance.pdf
Introduction to FDO and How It works Applications _ Richard at FIDO Alliance.pdf
 
Secure Zero Touch enabled Edge compute with Dell NativeEdge via FDO _ Brad at...
Secure Zero Touch enabled Edge compute with Dell NativeEdge via FDO _ Brad at...Secure Zero Touch enabled Edge compute with Dell NativeEdge via FDO _ Brad at...
Secure Zero Touch enabled Edge compute with Dell NativeEdge via FDO _ Brad at...
 
Where to Learn More About FDO _ Richard at FIDO Alliance.pdf
Where to Learn More About FDO _ Richard at FIDO Alliance.pdfWhere to Learn More About FDO _ Richard at FIDO Alliance.pdf
Where to Learn More About FDO _ Richard at FIDO Alliance.pdf
 
How Red Hat Uses FDO in Device Lifecycle _ Costin and Vitaliy at Red Hat.pdf
How Red Hat Uses FDO in Device Lifecycle _ Costin and Vitaliy at Red Hat.pdfHow Red Hat Uses FDO in Device Lifecycle _ Costin and Vitaliy at Red Hat.pdf
How Red Hat Uses FDO in Device Lifecycle _ Costin and Vitaliy at Red Hat.pdf
 
Continuing Bonds Through AI: A Hermeneutic Reflection on Thanabots
Continuing Bonds Through AI: A Hermeneutic Reflection on ThanabotsContinuing Bonds Through AI: A Hermeneutic Reflection on Thanabots
Continuing Bonds Through AI: A Hermeneutic Reflection on Thanabots
 
Portal Kombat : extension du réseau de propagande russe
Portal Kombat : extension du réseau de propagande russePortal Kombat : extension du réseau de propagande russe
Portal Kombat : extension du réseau de propagande russe
 
Microsoft CSP Briefing Pre-Engagement - Questionnaire
Microsoft CSP Briefing Pre-Engagement - QuestionnaireMicrosoft CSP Briefing Pre-Engagement - Questionnaire
Microsoft CSP Briefing Pre-Engagement - Questionnaire
 

2011 04-06 sugar con physics of influence-v03p

  • 1. The Physics of Influence Building, Nurturing, and Leveraging Your Best Kept Marketing Secret Michael Wu Ph.D. Principal Scientist of Analytics Lithium Technologies Inc. SugarCon: April 6th, 2011 ‐1‐ | 16:14 @mich8elwu
  • 2. Session Agenda Influence basics – What is influence? Who are the influencers? – What does influence mean to your business Influence mechanics – Do influencers matter? How? How much? – How to find influencers? Advance topics on influence – How to work with influencers without working with them? ‐2‐ | 16:14 @mich8elwu
  • 3. What is influence? Webster definitions: – The act or power of producing an effect without apparent  exertion of force or direct exercise of command. – The power or capacity of causing an effect in indirect or  intangible ways : sway ‐3‐ | 16:14 @mich8elwu
  • 4. What is influence? Webster definitions: – The act or power of producing an effect without apparent  exertion of force or direct exercise of command. – The power or capacity of causing an effect in indirect or  intangible ways : sway Must have some effects – Effect on some target audience (target) – Effects don’t always have to have actions ‐4‐ | 16:14 @mich8elwu
  • 5. What is influence? Webster definitions: – The act or power of producing an effect without apparent  exertion of force or direct exercise of command. – The power or capacity of causing an effect in indirect or  intangible ways : sway It matters how you produce the effects – No carrot: no money – No stick: no force/coercion – No annoyance: no spam/frustration – No trick: no deception/hidden agenda ‐5‐ | 16:14 @mich8elwu
  • 6. What is influence? Webster definitions: – The act or power of producing an effect without apparent  exertion of force or direct exercise of command. – The power or capacity of causing an effect in indirect or  intangible ways : sway Definition for businesses:  – The ability to cause a change in thought (sentiment,  opinion, etc.) OR behavior (purchase, referral, etc.)  through non‐coercive and transparent means where the  targets want the changes even with no monetary  compensation ‐6‐ | 16:14 @mich8elwu
  • 7. Who are the influencers? Kevin Smith (2010): Dave Carroll (2009): Jeff Jarvis (2005): Too fat to fly Southwest United Breaks Guitar Dell Lies, Dell Sucks Channel=Twitter Channel=YouTube Channel=Blog They were mistreated by some companies – Their influence on social media  cause a major PR crisis – Bad PR + significant financial damage (in some cases) ‐7‐ | 16:14 @mich8elwu
  • 8. Who are the influencers? But influencers ≠ celebrities – Because influence ≠ popularity Other confounding facts about influencers: – Everyone can influence someone, so anyone can be an  influencer. – Influencers do not fall into any standard demographics  and/or technographic segmentations. – There are no universal influencers. ‐8‐ | 16:14 @mich8elwu
  • 9. Who are the influencers? Influencers = – Superusers and product experts – Advocates who will speak on your behalf – Evangelist of your brand Influencers for marketers = – People with significantly greater ability to influence —cause a change in thought OR behavior through non‐ coercive and transparent means where the targets want  the changes even with no monetary compensation ‐9‐ | 16:14 @mich8elwu
  • 10. What does this mean to your business? engage/  empower mass public consumers awareness purchase interest desire brand X potential (+) influence = promoters potential (−) influence = detractors competitors’  your superusers your brand  your  unawared competitors’  brand advocates  (product experts) advocates customers consumers customers (your brand  (evangelist) detractors) ‐ 10 ‐ | 16:14 @mich8elwu
  • 11. What does this mean to your business? Influencers help you: – Drive effective WOM marketing/sales • Move consumers through your purchase funnel  increase sales – Acquire customers from your competitors – Cut cost • Influence other customers to self‐help + help each other ‐ 11 ‐ | 16:14 @mich8elwu
  • 12. Session Agenda Influence basics – What is influence? Who are the influencers? – What does influence mean to your business Influence mechanics – Do influencers matter? How? How much? – How to find influencers? Advance topics on influence – How to work with influencers without working with them? ‐ 12 ‐ | 16:14 @mich8elwu
  • 13. Do influencers matter? vs. Malcolm Gladwell Duncan Watts (best‐selling author) (sociologist) Influencers matter Influencers don’t matter – If they say/do something  – Seeding a message from  thousands and millions  any random person  will hear and follow eventually reaches the  same number of people  as seeding from an  influencer ‐ 13 ‐ | 16:14 @mich8elwu
  • 14. Do influencers matter? The effect of influencers is not the number of target they can  reach. It is the speed at which they can reach those targets. Number of targets reached is a very bad way to measure  influence. What is a better way? Quantifying the value of WOM. Join work with – Prof. Barak Libai MIT Sloan School of Management Recanati B‐School, Tel Aviv Univ – Prof. Eitan Muller  NYU Stern School of Business  Recanati B‐School, Tel Aviv Univ – Prof. Renana Peres The Wharton School, U Penn Hebrew University of Jerusalem ‐ 14 ‐ | 16:14 @mich8elwu
  • 15. How does WOM turn into value? W O M ? Agent‐based CLV model based on real network structure  from 12 social graphs (6 from Lithium) CLV model: Takes into account of – Network value of referral (V. Kumar) – Discount rate of money, b/c lifetime of customers can be very  long. ‐ 15 ‐ | 16:14 @mich8elwu
  • 16. How does WOM turn into value? W O M ? Agent‐based CLV model based on real network structure  from 12 social graphs (6 from Lithium) Simulation parameters for investigating the effect of: – Influencers: Influencer seeding vs. random seeding – Brand equity: Brand monopoly vs. competing brand – Seeding program size: 0.5% to 5% ‐ 16 ‐ | 16:14 @mich8elwu
  • 17. Summary of Lithium‐only data Seeding Program Competing Random 10.3% brands Gain via acceleration Influencer 17.4% Gain via acquisition Brand Random 86.8% monopoly Influencer 113% 0 20 40 80 100 120 Result 1: Two mechanisms combine to create  WOM values Acquisition of customers Acceleration of adoption ‐ 17 ‐ | 16:14 @mich8elwu
  • 18. Summary of Lithium‐only data Seeding Program Competing Random 10.3% brands Gain via acceleration Influencer 17.4% Gain via acquisition Brand Random 86.8% monopoly Influencer 113% 0 20 40 80 100 120 Result 2: Influencer seeding increases gain 49.4% ‐ 18 ‐ | 16:14 @mich8elwu
  • 19. Summary of Lithium‐only data Seeding Program Competing Random 10.3% brands Gain via acceleration Influencer 17.4% Gain via acquisition Brand Random 86.8% monopoly Influencer 113% 0 20 40 80 100 120 Result 3: First mover advantage is huge 7.5x ‐ 19 ‐ | 16:14 @mich8elwu
  • 20. What does this mean to your business? engage/  empower mass public consumers awareness purchase interest desire brand X potential (+) influence = promoters potential (−) influence = detractors competitors’  your superusers your brand  your  unawared competitors’  brand advocates  (product experts) advocates customers consumers customers (your brand  (evangelist) detractors) ‐ 20 ‐ | 16:14 @mich8elwu
  • 21. Finding influencers involves 2 parties Influencer Domain Credibility: The influencer's expertise in a specific domain  of knowledge. High Bandwidth: The influencer's ability to transmit his expert  knowledge through a social media channel. Content Relevance: How closely the target's information needs  coincide with the influencer's expertise. Timing: The ability of the influencer to deliver his expert knowledge to  the target at the time when the target needed it. Channel Alignment: The amount of channel overlap between the  target and the influencer. Target Confidence: How much the target trusts the influencer with  respect to his information needs Target ‐ 21 ‐ | 16:14 @mich8elwu
  • 22. Finding the potential influencers High Potential Credible Bandwidth influencer users users ‐ 22 ‐ | 16:14 @mich8elwu
  • 23. Importance of relevance & timing Friendship Relevant relationship FanGirl w/in 1 month WizKid 1 month ago 3 month ago 6 month ago PopGuy ‐ 23 ‐ | 16:14 @mich8elwu
  • 25. Session Agenda Influence basics – What is influence? Who are the influencers? – What does influence mean to your business Influence mechanics – Do influencers matter? How? How much? – How to find influencers? Advance topics on influence – How to work with influencers without working with them? ‐ 25 ‐ | 16:14 @mich8elwu
  • 26. Now you have influencers, so what? You shouldn’t: – Pay them, or blatantly promote them • People will find out  Not authentic  They will lose credibility – Work them like your employees • They will hate you and turn against you How to influence the influencers? – Remember: No carrot, no stick, no annoyance, no tricks! How do we work with them without actually working  with them? – Do you just leave them be and let WOM propagate? ‐ 26 ‐ | 16:14 @mich8elwu
  • 27. Now you have influencers, so what? What about WOM? ‐ 27 ‐ | 16:14 @mich8elwu
  • 28. Uncoordinated WOM has low efficacy WOM do not propagate vary far. What’s wrong? – Passionate influencers are too far apart. – WOM decays before reaching another influencer who will  pass it on. – Over time, even the passionate influencers lose their  enthusiasm. The problem is distance and time. How can we fix it? – Shorten the distance between the passionate influencers. • In‐Real‐Life (IRL) meet‐up • Community ‐ 28 ‐ | 16:14 @mich8elwu
  • 30. Community WOM is effective Community can overcome the decaying effect of  distance and time. – Key: High concentration of passionate consumers – Many of them + close proximity to each other Result: – Ongoing conversation heightens enthusiasm – Persistent content prolonged message lifetime – Ideation and innovation increase relevance and adoption ‐ 30 ‐ | 16:14 @mich8elwu
  • 31. Community WOM ‐ 31 ‐ | 16:14 @mich8elwu
  • 32. Community WOM ‐ 32 ‐ | 16:14 @mich8elwu
  • 33. A repeatable influencer strategy Co‐create value with them using a community Community – Provide audience for the influencers – Amplify their influence – Cultivates influencers: Allow ordinary customers to gain  status/recognition  build their influence Community members + sponsors – Benefit from influencers’ domain expertise – Effective WOM + cut support cost ‐ 33 ‐ | 16:14 @mich8elwu
  • 35. Evolution of a customer community ‐ 35 ‐ | 16:14 @mich8elwu
  • 36. Evolution of a customer community Identify rising  superusers as their  influence grows Influence ≠ number  of connections ‐ 36 ‐ | 16:14 @mich8elwu
  • 37. Community WOM What about the  greater social web? ‐ 37 ‐ | 16:14 @mich8elwu
  • 38. Community WOM ‐ 38 ‐ | 16:14 @mich8elwu
  • 40. Thank you Resources: blog+case study+whitepaper http://lithosphere.lithium.com/t5/a/bg-p/MikeW http://pages.lithium.com/word-of-mouth-marketing.html ‐ 40 ‐ | 16:14 @mich8elwu