1. New Opportunities
in Voice and Messaging
ITU Telecom World 2013, Bangkok
Dean Bubley & Martin Geddes
dean.bubley@disruptive-analysis.com
mail@martingeddes.com

2. About Disruptive Analysis
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London-based analyst house & strategic consulting firm
Cross-silo, contrarian, visionary, independent
Advisor to telcos, vendors, regulators & investors
Covering VoIP since 1997 & 3G/4G mVoIP since 2007
Critic of RCS since 2008
Published report on “Telco-OTT Strategies”, Feb 2012
Report on WebRTC, Feb 2013, updated Jun & Nov 2013
Workshops on WebRTC, Future of Voice & TelcoOTT
Twitter @disruptivedean
November 2013
Blog: disruptivewireless.blogspot.com
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Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013

3. About Martin Geddes Consulting
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Strategy consulting on broadband, voice and cloud services
Industry thought leader – Sprint, BT, Telco 2.0
Focus on network performance and next-gen voice services
Blogging and speaking on OTT and Future of Voice since 2003
Co-founder and Executive Director of Hypervoice Consortium
Workshops on Future of Voice & TelcoOTT
Twitter @martingeddes
November 2013
Free newsletter: martingeddes.com
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4. To learn more…
www.disruptive-analysis.com
www.martingeddes.com
MORE
November 2013
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5. Declaration of relevant business interests
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Martin:
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Board member: Voxygen
Client: HarQen
Advisory board: VoiceSage
Business advisor: Predictable Network Solutions
Paid by Hypervoice Consortium members
Many other consulting clients
Dean:
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Many research and consulting clients across telecoms ecosystem
(too many to list them all here!)
Advisor: Voxygen, Temasys, Movirtu
November 2013
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6. A map of the ‘new world’ of voice
November 2013
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7. Agenda
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Overview of the Future of Voice (Martin)
The Death of Ubiquity (Dean)
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Beyond telephony: Value-added voice & Hypervoice (Martin)
Beyond telephony: WebRTC (Dean)
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So what and what next for telcos?
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November 2013
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8. Overview of the
Future of Voice

9. Telephony is like a Marks & Spencer sandwich
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Perishable product
Beautiful packaging
Own-branded only
No personalisation
 “Hold
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November 2013
the mayo…”
The highest quality…
…but at a high price

10. Voice evolution is suddenly accelerating
2003 … … … 2011 … 2013 … 2015
“Telepocalypse”
November 2013
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11. Voice evolution is suddenly accelerating
2003 … … … 2011 … 2013 … 2015
Slow growth of OTTs & UC
Slow shift of TDM to IP for voice
Lots of good ideas, hard to implement
Broadband and smartphone explosion…
…but no change to core telephony offer
November 2013
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12. Voice evolution is suddenly accelerating
2003 … … … 2011 … 2013 … 2015
First
Future of Voice
Workshop
November 2013
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13. Voice evolution is suddenly accelerating
2003 … … … 2011 … 2013 … 2015
Today
November 2013
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14. Voice evolution is suddenly accelerating
Two years ago
Now
Volume & value
Predicting
declines in
“peak telephony”
mature markets
November 2013
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15. Voice evolution is suddenly accelerating
Two years ago
Now
Risk of voice
over-supply
Risk of voice
under-demand
November 2013
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16. Voice evolution is suddenly accelerating
Two years ago
Now
OTT =
threat
OTT =
opportunity
November 2013
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17. Voice evolution is suddenly accelerating
Two years ago
Now
Voice-in-apps
as concept
APIs, WebRTC &
cloud telephony
November 2013
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18. Voice evolution is suddenly accelerating
Two years ago
Now
4G voice &
messaging
doubts
VoLTE and RCS
problems real
November 2013
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19. Mainstream opinion is finally catching up…
“After decades of stagnation, the voice landscape is undergoing
a seismic shift. Migration is in full swing to richer IP-based
communication, and Web real-time communication is expected
to significantly disrupt the value chain.
CSPs should reassess their strategy
to avoid being disenfranchised.”
“The Future Evolution of CSP Voice Services”
Gyanee Dewnarain, Research Director, Gartner
14 November 2013
November 2013
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20. Voice is suddenly changing fast
2003 … … … 2011 … 2013 … 2015
?
November 2013
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21. Voice gets “app stored”
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Demand-driven future
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No two users have the exact same
needs
Hyper-personalised
There is no “one-size-fits-all”
voice solution

Supply-centric outlook = death
November 2013
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22. From ubiquity to Hi-Lo mix of communications
Sunglasses: $100
Jacket: $1000
Uniform: $150
Leggings: $10
November 2013
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23. Your fate if you don’t adapt to changing context!
Marks & Spencer has revealed a 9.1% fall in half-year profits as
underlying sales of clothing and homewares
slipped back for the ninth consecutive quarter.
Tuesday 5 November 2013
November 2013
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24. To learn more…
Sign up to the
Future of Communications
newsletter
http://eepurl.com/dSkfz
MORE
November 2013
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25. For IP Communications,
Ubiquity is Dead
ITU Telecom World 2013, Bangkok
Dean Bubley & Martin Geddes
dean.bubley@disruptive-analysis.com
mail@martingeddes.com

26. Neuroscience explains reluctance to change
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Predictable irrationality
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Endowment effect
Optimism bias
Confirmation bias
Defence of belief systems
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November 2013
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27. Convergence
& standards
Fragmentation &
differentiation
Telephony & SMS will continue to exist,
but there will be
NO more standard, interoperable services

28. Comforting myths about demand
“Voice” = ubiquitous phone calls
Good quality is critical
Interoperability is essential
Minutes / messages = value
November 2013
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29. Uncomfortable demand reality
Phone calls are
becoming less useful
Good quality is only sometimes critical
Interoperability is essential
for basic lowest-common
denominator services only
Intention & outcomes = value
October 2013
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30. Essential supply consequences
Need personalisation and
contextualisation capabilities
Range of levels of network quality and cost…
…from unmanaged to assured
Shift focus to embedded voice
Need new demand-driven
services model
November 2013
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31. In the beginning – “Proxi-phone”
Near voice
November 2013
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32. Pretty good for the 19th century...
Old distant voice [Tele-phone]
>100 years ago
November 2013
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33. ... but really not good enough for 21st century
“Hegemony
of the
caller”

34. Fragmentation of communications models
Standalone
Circuit calls
Good to have “lowest
common denominator”
IP
Embedded
app/web
calls
Ubiquity no/negative
benefit
November 2013
Non-call
comms
Maybe ubiquitous
in a niche
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35. Intent & context....
Why do people make
phone calls (or send
messages, share media
or use video), anyway?
November 2013
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36. The chart you’ll never see…
Calls by purpose
Gossip
Meeting up
Flirting
Spam
Showing off
Work
Wasting time
November 2013
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37. Different contexts
Out walking
Public transport
Living room
Board room
Bar
November 2013
At work
Airline lounge
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38. 1 OR 2 “UBIQUITOUS”
SERVICES CANNOT
FULFILL ALL THESE
PURPOSES WELL
November 2013
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39. Tools are cheap/free. So we pick the right ones
SMS
November 2013
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40. So how important is quality?
% calls
Must have
I'll call back
Nice to have
Meh. I want free
November 2013
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41. Beyond “the minute” as a metric & model
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We don’t pay for movies or flights by the minute
Short calls often more valuable than long
Minutes = easy to count (and must be counted)
Locks telecom industry to obsolete business model
Regulator mindset needs to shift too
November 2013
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42. Service
Product
Feature
Function
November 2013
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43. Ubiquity is dead. And that’s a good thing.
November 2013
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44. To learn more…
Sign up to the
Disruptive Wireless newsletter
http://eepurl.com/wAqC5
Blog: disruptivewireless.blogspot.com
November 2013
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MORE

45. Voice Value-added Services
ITU Telecom World 2013, Bangkok
Dean Bubley & Martin Geddes
dean.bubley@disruptive-analysis.com
mail@martingeddes.com

46. Voice VAS
Standard fixed +
mobile feature set
Next-gen
“mobile, social,
cloud” feature set
Standard feature set
(caller ID, voicemail,
forwarding, etc.)
Voice, video and
messaging
Audio conferencing
Call recording
Premium voice
Visual call control
Ringback tones
Source tracking
Centrex
Next-generation
conference calling
November 2013
Translation
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“Hypervoice”

47. Singtel – concierge-type services
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“Next-generation Yellow Pages + search, for voice”
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More than 150,000 local businesses and 7,000 hawker locations
Singapore English and local terms
Mobile-app based
November 2013
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48. Yes, you can compete with Google (and win!)
“We have spent a lot of effort to ensure the
app is able to understand the way
Singaporeans speak English,
and this sets deF!ND apart from other
voice recognition apps that have been
developed abroad”
November 2013
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49. If you can’t beat them…
Nigeria
+
November 2013
Philippines
+
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50. DoCoMo - automatic voice translation service
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World’s first commercial mobile service for translation of
conversations between people speaking Japanese and other
languages.
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Hanashite Hon’yaku provides translations between Japanese and the
receiver’s language.
Translations are provided both as screen text and voice readouts.
Dial the other party using an Android app for DOCOMO
smartphones and tablets running Android 2.2 or higher.
November 2013
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51. Tropo Ameche – telco-centric “voice apps store”
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Integrated with telco core network
Wide range of capabilities (e.g. voice whisper)
November 2013
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52. CallTrunk – consumer call recording
Capture
November 2013
Cloud
integration
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Search
and analyse

53. VoiceBase – enterprise call search
November 2013
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54. Cloud/SaaS integration is important
November 2013
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55. Op3nVoice - Call recording seems to be ‘hot’
November 2013
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56. C2B Inbound call source/lead tracking
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Optimise the ROI of your marketing campaigns
Compare response rates of different marketing channels with
unique trackable phone numbers
November 2013
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57. SME: Telefonica Azul - Rich visual call control
1:1 call
Group or
conference call
November 2013
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58. Adds mute, earmuff, kick participants
or put them on hold.

59. B2B: Next-generation conference calling
“Links what
you say to
what you
do.”

60. How?
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Not just traditional “network services” and call control
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Multiple commercial options: Build, partner, re-sell
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New architectures expose or defer call control
Many value-added integration points (Hosting, security, etc.)
E.g. Vodafone OneNet vs Cisco UC + SingTel UCaaS
Enterprise segment tends to lead
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Long history of making money from reselling 3rd party applications and
services and supplying appropriate connectivity
Used to re-selling PBX, video conferencing + service wrapper
“OTT” – has always been that way in the enterprise world!
November 2013
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61. WHERE NEXT?
November 2013
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62. What is hypervoice?
Voice as 2-way audio
November 2013
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Voice as
information

63. Problems we are solving
Voice has value at a
single instant
November 2013
Voice has value beyond
a single instant
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64. Defining characteristics
Activity stream
Recordable
Shareable
Workflow integration
Searchable
Rich UI

65. Web 1.0
Hypertext
Web 2.0
Hypermessaging
Web 3.0
Hypervoice
?
November 2013
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66. Summary
Hypervoice conversations are the
‘social’ version of telephony
and unified communications.
November 2013
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67. To learn more…
White paper, newsletter, blog at www.hypervoice.org
MORE
November 2013
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68. WebRTC Market
Status & Opportunities
ITU Telecom World 2013, Bangkok
Dean Bubley & Martin Geddes
dean.bubley@disruptive-analysis.com
mail@martingeddes.com

69. The vision: voice & video everywhere
November 2013
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70. Talked about for years, but hard to achieve
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Expensive
Inflexible
Poor developer support
Limited use-cases
Reliance on “call” model
Poor audio/video
Hard to integrate
= Patchy adoption & little
developer enthusiasm / buzz
November 2013
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71. But now….
November 2013
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72. WebRTC – what is it?

An easy way to put voice & video into web browsers…
… and also apps, and devices and more
High quality, network-intelligent (eg firewalls)
Also with “context”, realtime data & encryption
Developer-friendly & user-friendly
Excitement, buzz & “cool factor”
“Democratises” voice & video. Cheap, easy innovation
More than just a tech standard. A “movement”.
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Huge disruption potential for telcos & others
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November 2013
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73. When?
NOW
Already being commercialised & monetised…
…before it is standardised
November 2013
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74. Who’s involved?
& 200+ startups & 1000’s of developers
November 2013
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75. Original 3-way support for WebRTC expanding
Enterprise
Network
tools
Devices
WebRTC
Consumer
Web
Telco
TV &
gaming
November 2013

76. WebRTC rapidly expanding past “calls”
November 2013
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77. WebRTC supported on >4bn devices by 2016
Source: Disruptive Analysis WebRTC Strategy Report update November 2013
November 2013

78. View Oct’13: lead WebRTC use-cases
Early enterprise adoption
Live &
commercial
Initial consumer web apps/devices
Pilots / precommercial
Trials &
demos
November 2013
Verticals & corporate
Telco, Entertainment, M2M, other…
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79. For telcos WebRTC is really a magnifier/catalyst
Now
With WebRTC
Bigger opportunities
Worse threats
Faster speed
November 2013
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80. Main WebRTC strategies for SPs?
Extend onnet services
& IMS / SS7
Strengthen
enterprise &
verticals
TV,
entertainment &
digital
services
October 2013
Turbocharge
Telco-OTT
apps
IMS should be <30% total
WebRTC effort &
investment
Sell
packaged
WebRTC
services to
subscriber
Enhance
developer
platform
Also: invest / incubate
Improve own CRM & systems
Maybe M2M, devices etc

81. Policy impact of WebRTC
?
(but urgent)
November 2013
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82. For WebRTC report & quarterly update
details see:
http://disruptivewireless.blogspot.com/p/blog-page.html
Or email information@disruptiveanalysis.com
October 2013
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83. What next?
ITU Telecom World 2013, Bangkok
Dean Bubley & Martin Geddes
dean.bubley@disruptive-analysis.com
mail@martingeddes.com

84. Which way do you want to go?
Oct 2013
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85. Operators
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Milk the cash cow…
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Re-think credit control
More bundling with new VAS
Refine segmentation
Customers, not devices
New payment models
…and recognise and engage with
inevitable change
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Can’t limit user behaviour
“Don’t fight demand”
Lots of opportunity so accept change
November 2013

86. Operators should do these five things now!
1.
2.
3.
Build off-net (TelcoOTT) service capability
Measure and manage on-net OTT voice quality
Create a value-added voice strategy
 Integrated
4.
5.
with core voice offer only where appropriate
Re-examine responsibility for voice
Engage regulator in pro-active dialogue
November 2013
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87. Regulatory and policy considerations
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This is good for consumers!
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Potential huge area for digital economy + R&D
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Will increase pressure on telcos in some cases
Protecting ‘national champion’ incumbent players may backfire
Regulation is going to get more complex
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Service innovation and competition
Treat like the rest of the web – progress & diversity is good
‘Voice’ is becoming 1000’s of apps, not just “calls”?
Revisit rules & laws to reflect new world of voice/video
Difficult issues around privacy, security, encryption
November 2013
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88. Also available…
Workshops, Briefings, Consultancy
Dean.Bubley@disruptive-analysis.com
mail@martingeddes.com
November 2013
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Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013