Sexual Assault Crime Series Analysis3128010240030-94264794593<br />&MayherGallagher <br />6341110271780<br />-18605555880<...
Temporal = Relating To; Concerned with; Limited by time
Space
Spatial = relating to, involving or having the nature of space Location
Spatiotemporal = Of, relating to, or existing in both space and time.
Behavior
It also describes the behavior of victims and others associated with the crimes we are studying an essential element not t...
Differentiate between MO & Signature
Target/Victim Victimology
Examples: stolen or damaged as the objective of the crime.
Most types of crime involve a multitude of targets (e.g., a sexual assault s target is predominantly the person of the vic...
Offender/Suspect
the physical descriptions of the actual criminal offenders, as well as their vehicles, clothing, property, weapons, and an...
Includes physical evidence
Key Findings
Half of the crimes have been repeated on several holidays including Columbus Day, the Super Bowl and Mother’s Day, but all...
The offender only attacks during the seasons of Fall, Winter and Spring when colleges are in session.
The offender only attacks on Saturdays and Sundays.  On Saturdays attacks occur a few hours before midnight and on Sunday ...
Assaults are all near Interstate 90, and within the beltway of the respective city he attacks in.
Never strikes in the same city twice (with the exception of the first three attacks).
The attacks are never less than five miles from a college campus.
The offender is an anger rapist with a personal cause issue.
The offender is always evolving.  The offender’s MO (Method of Operation) is becoming more complex.
The offender washed his past five victims in some form.
The offender targets his victims prior to the attack (attacks are not random).
Victims assaulted when alone.</li></ul>Forecast<br />It is almost certain the next sexual assault will occur on a Saturday...
Gallagher+Mayher Exam5(Final)
Gallagher+Mayher Exam5(Final)
Gallagher+Mayher Exam5(Final)
Gallagher+Mayher Exam5(Final)
Gallagher+Mayher Exam5(Final)
Gallagher+Mayher Exam5(Final)
Gallagher+Mayher Exam5(Final)
Gallagher+Mayher Exam5(Final)
Gallagher+Mayher Exam5(Final)
Gallagher+Mayher Exam5(Final)
Gallagher+Mayher Exam5(Final)
Gallagher+Mayher Exam5(Final)
Gallagher+Mayher Exam5(Final)
Gallagher+Mayher Exam5(Final)
Gallagher+Mayher Exam5(Final)
Gallagher+Mayher Exam5(Final)
Gallagher+Mayher Exam5(Final)
Gallagher+Mayher Exam5(Final)
Gallagher+Mayher Exam5(Final)
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Gallagher+Mayher Exam5(Final)

  1. 1. Sexual Assault Crime Series Analysis3128010240030-94264794593<br />&MayherGallagher <br />6341110271780<br />-18605555880<br />Mercyhurst College Institute for Intelligence StudiesMike Gallagher & Andrew MayherFebruary 5, 2010<br />Page Left Blank Intentionally <br />Contact InformationAnalyst: Andrew MayherClass: Law Enforcement IntelligenceDate: 5 February 2010 Contact Information:Amayhe91@mercyhurst.edu(440) 463-4479MCIIS Undergraduate Class of 2012Analyst: Mike GallagherClass: Law Enforcement IntelligenceDate: 5 February 2010Contact Information:Mgalla22@mercyhurst.edu(301) 537-5198www.mciismgallagher.comMCIIS Undergraduate Class of 201269875404743450-590550-571500<br />Administrative DataAssignment # 5 Sexual Assault Crime Series AnalysisTotal Possible Grade Points: 250 Date Assigned: 1/20/2010Date Due: 2/5/2010 Testing Location: Outside the classroomEstimated Time Required: 16-24 HoursSources of Information: Classroom Hand-out Open Sources Internet Searches Blackboard ReadingsSoftware Applications: Microsoft Word Microsoft Excel Mapping Tool (Google Maps NOT EARTH)Background: As a Crime Analyst, one of your responsibilities is to identify serial crime patterns and report it to your supervisor. He/She then will often ask for findings, analysis and recommendations. Tasking: You are a crime analyst for the Massachusetts State Police assigned to the Violent Crime Unit. On 1/20/10, your supervisor requested that you analyze a series of sexual assaults and a related murder and produce a project-briefing book report of your findings, analysis and recommendations. The briefing book shall include any spreadsheets, chart, graphs or maps as needed to support your analysis and recommendations.Assignment: See the attached handout for the specific requirements.Assignment Format: The finished product shall be a project-briefing book created using Microsoft Word. A cover sheet with the appropriate information is required. A printed copy of the finished product shall be submitted in class and an electronic copy shall be placed in the Digital Drop Box before class. The electronic file shall be named Your Last Name Exam 5.Instructions: The student may work individually but are strongly encouraged to work with 1 other classmate team member. NOTE: A similar exam has been used in the past. Possession and/or reviewing it, will be considered an act of academic dishonesty and appropriate disciplinary actions will be taken. Grading Criteria:Application of the Crime Series MatrixThoroughness of your analysis and findings Validity of your recommendations and analytical reasoningClarity of formatting, writing, organization, and ease of reading of the reportUse of charts, graphics and colors. (If utilized)The paper and/or electronic copy will receive a full grade deduction for each part of 24 hours of being late.Student Acknowledgement Signature:______________________________ _________________________________ Name Signature______________________________ _________________________________ Name Signature<br />Table of ContentsSection I: Executive Summary8Key Findings & Forecasts 9-10 Recommendations 10-11 Crime Bulletin 13Section II:15 Time 16-20Location22-24Behavior 26-28Victim 30-32Offender 34-36Annex37Maps38-42Victim Reports 43-45<br />About This Document<br />Mike Gallagher and Andrew Mayher, both sophomores in the Mercyhurst College Institute for Intelligence Studies program, prepared this report for Prof. David Grabelski. This Report analyzes a serial rapist who has been committing burglaries from 9/2/2006 to 12/27/2010. The taskings for this report were given on January 20, 2010 and the final product was completed on February 5, 2009. The analytical confidence for this assessment is high. Source reliability is high. There is no conflict amongst sources. The analysts had low expertise, worked together and did not use structured analytical methods. The analysis was complicated and the amount of time available was sufficient. <br />To contact the analysts or to review this report along with other reports prepared by the analysts, please visit the analysts’ website at www.mciismgallagher.com. The pass-code for the website is 3-0-1-7. <br /> <br />Andrew Mayher Mike Gallagher <br />2/05/20102/05/2010 <br />6053455299085<br />-45720212090<br /> <br />Section I Executive Summary<br />Brief synopsis of the investigation<br />We are crime analysts for the Massachusetts State Police assigned to the Violent Crime Unit. On 1/20/10, our supervisor requested that we analyze a series of statewide sexual assaults and a recent murder in Boston, MA. She stated that the state forensic lab has confirmed that the DNA samples from the recent murder crime scene were a positive match to the same unknown suspect; however, the suspect is not in CODIS. He is responsible for sexually assaulting at least 10 women since 2006. She wants us to produce a report of the case facts, our findings, forecasts and recommendations.<br />Tasking <br />You are crime analysts for the Massachusetts State Police assigned to the Violent Crime Unit. On 1/20/10, your supervisor requested that you analyze a series of sexual assaults and a related murder and produce a project-briefing book report of your findings, analysis and recommendations. The briefing book shall include any spreadsheets, chart, graphs or maps as needed to support your analysis and recommendations.<br />-102235231140Methodology <br /><ul><li>Time
  2. 2. Temporal = Relating To; Concerned with; Limited by time
  3. 3. Space
  4. 4. Spatial = relating to, involving or having the nature of space Location
  5. 5. Spatiotemporal = Of, relating to, or existing in both space and time.
  6. 6. Behavior
  7. 7. It also describes the behavior of victims and others associated with the crimes we are studying an essential element not to be skipped!
  8. 8. Differentiate between MO & Signature
  9. 9. Target/Victim Victimology
  10. 10. Examples: stolen or damaged as the objective of the crime.
  11. 11. Most types of crime involve a multitude of targets (e.g., a sexual assault s target is predominantly the person of the victim; however, the victim s house, her purse or wallet, might also be considered targets for the purpose of tactical analysis.
  12. 12. Offender/Suspect
  13. 13. the physical descriptions of the actual criminal offenders, as well as their vehicles, clothing, property, weapons, and anything else which can be used to evaluate them.
  14. 14. Includes physical evidence
  15. 15. Key Findings
  16. 16. Half of the crimes have been repeated on several holidays including Columbus Day, the Super Bowl and Mother’s Day, but all crimes occur near a holiday.
  17. 17. The offender only attacks during the seasons of Fall, Winter and Spring when colleges are in session.
  18. 18. The offender only attacks on Saturdays and Sundays. On Saturdays attacks occur a few hours before midnight and on Sunday attacks occur a few hours after midnight.
  19. 19. Assaults are all near Interstate 90, and within the beltway of the respective city he attacks in.
  20. 20. Never strikes in the same city twice (with the exception of the first three attacks).
  21. 21. The attacks are never less than five miles from a college campus.
  22. 22. The offender is an anger rapist with a personal cause issue.
  23. 23. The offender is always evolving. The offender’s MO (Method of Operation) is becoming more complex.
  24. 24. The offender washed his past five victims in some form.
  25. 25. The offender targets his victims prior to the attack (attacks are not random).
  26. 26. Victims assaulted when alone.</li></ul>Forecast<br />It is almost certain the next sexual assault will occur on a Saturday or Sunday between 10:00 p.m. and 2:30 a.m. It is likely the next sexual assault will occur on one of the following dates May 7th or 8th, 2011 near Mother’s Day, or October 1st or 2nd, 2011 near Columbus Day, or the 24th or 25th, near Christmas. If the offender waits until 2012, the attack will likely be in the beginning of the year such as Super Bowl weekend, being February 4th or 5th. It is likely the offender lives or works in the Boston area due to the first three attacks being in Boston and the attacks being less than 2 miles apart from each other. Furthermore, the offender likely uses Interstate 90 to travel between Boston, Worcester, and Chicopee. Also, the offender likely operates within the beltway area of all three cities. Finally, the analysts forecast the offender’s next attack will likely be in Worcester, within 5 miles of a college, based on an analysis in his movement between Boston, Worcester, and Chicopee. It is highly likely the next sexual assault will occur in the victim’s place of residence because the past six sexual assaults in this series have occurred at that location. The offender is likely scared and will wait until he feels comfortable to strike again. The offender is likely to continue his methods of operation but is not likely to gag the victim next time in order to prevent a reoccurrence of victim ten. The offender will likely continue quoting from the bible and his “cleansing of the victim.” Throughout the offender’s evolution, he has continually increased his violence, and his assaults are highly likely to continue escalating in violence. In addition to the next crime occurring at the victim’s residence, the offender will likely enter the residence through an unlocked window. It is almost certain the next victim will be between the ages of 20-23, Caucasian and female. It is almost certain the victim will be of a medium to high risk level and likely middle class. There is a 50% chance the next victim will be a college student. It is likely the next victim will be moving from a fast food restaurant, night club or bar and be heading to her residence, or the victim will be sleeping when the sexual assault occurs.<br />Recommendation<br />The analysts’ recommendations are that police patrols need to be increased on the Saturday and Sundays near holidays. Police patrolling should begin at approximately 8:00 p.m. until 2:00 a.m. on Saturday and 10:00 p.m. until 2:30 a.m. on Sunday. The dates police patrol presence should increase the most are May 7th and 8th 2011, October 1st and 2nd, 2011, December 24th and 25th, 2011 and February 4th and 5th, 2012. Special police attention should be placed on the dates of February 4th and 5th of 2012 and on May 7th and 8th of 2011 because these are the most likely dates of another sexual assault. The analysts recommend alerting the colleges within the beltway area of each city. The analysts also recommend advising the colleges who are as risk and what they can do to prevent such an attack from happening. The police in Worcester should also increase patrol in the beltway area at the times recommended within the time section of this report. Furthermore, the analysts forecast the offender will likely strike between the location of the fourth and fifth attack in Worcester. There should be increased patrols in this area during the time mentioned in the time section of this report. Increase patrols specifically near residential areas, bars, and fast food restaurants. The analysts recommend women travel in groups and not by themselves when at all possible and to lock all windows and doors at all times. Furthermore, colleges may sponsor classes on self defense and situational awareness. The analysts recommend police and colleges be on the lookout for a white male who is 25-35, is 150-225 pounds, has muscular build, is athletic, is a maintenance worker or handyman, has military like tattoos, is single, is religious and spends time around cheap restaurants/dinners and bars and has limited social interaction with females. Furthermore, the analysts recommend police and colleges keep a lookout for the light colored van. Flyers should also be made and placed around college campuses, bars, restaurant or any popular locations where females in their early twenties hangout. These flyers should advice women to stay in groups and report suspicious activity immediately to the police on the dates listed above. Analysts recommend advising woman (through public service announcements), specifically college age woman, to practice security awareness. The poster should also include the local police department non emergency number so women unaccompanied by a group can request a police escort back to their residence.<br />Page left Intentionally Blank<br /> <br />Who: Suspect: Offender is likely single, religious, has a maintenance job/handyman, and conducts business in Boston, Worcester, and Chicopee. The offender likely spends time at bars and fast food joints. Financial status is likely lower middle class. He has a significant relationship with mother (unknown whether good or bad relationship) and has poor social skills with women.Victim: All of the victims of the sexual assaults are Caucasian, between the ages of 20 and 23, female, and either college students or have jobs.<br />#6Victim #4Where: Forecast next attack will be in Worcester between victim 4 and 6. Likely to be in residential locationHow: MO changed from using Light colored van as crime scene to entering the victim’s residence, usually entered from unlocked windows or forced into residence at gun point. When: It is almost certain the next sexual assault will occur on a Saturday or Sunday between 10:00 p.m. and 2:30 a.m. It is likely the next sexual assault will occur on one of the following dates May 7th or 8th, 2011 near Mother’s Day, or October 1st or 2nd, 2011 near Columbus Day, or the 24th or 25th, near Christmas.5526405574040What: A series of sexual assaults and a related murder (victim #10 in the state of Massachusetts, Specifically in the cities of Boston (likely offenders residence), Worcester (likely location of next assault), and Chicopee. Why: Offender is likely an anger rapist with a personal cause issue. The purpose of theses sexual assaults/rapes for the offender was not for sexual gratification as much as it was for punishing/demeaning/humiliating these young women. The offender believed the victims to be “unclean” and needed to be cleaned and/or punished.-3321053256280 Suspect’s DescriptionWorcester50165003011170-384810594995Contact Information: Mike GallagherMgalla22@mercyhurst.edu (301) 537-5198Andrew Mayher Amayhe91@mercyhurst.edu(440) 463- 4479<br />Page left Intentionally Blank<br /> <br />Time -9434769625363526743513221<br />666750381000Cyclical- How events repeat themselves in temporal cycles.<br />5019675276225Facts:<br />Findings: All crimes occur within two days of a holiday. Half of the crimes have been repeated on several holidays including Columbus Day, the Super Bowl and Mother’s Day. Three sexual assaults have occurred on Mother’s Day, which is more than any other holiday. The only days the offender attacks on are Saturdays and Sundays (4 on Saturday and 6 on Sunday). The offender always attacks at night. Sexual assaults continually occur earlier on Saturdays than on Sundays. On Saturday’s the crimes are reported between 10:00 p.m. and midnight and on Sunday all the crimes are reported after midnight. The offender only attacks during the seasons of Fall, Winter and Spring when colleges are in session.<br />Linear- Date of occurrences and the tempo at which they occur.<br />Facts:<br />VictimDateDays Between Crime2168525227330Day of the Week19/2/2006Saturday210/8/200636Sunday311/25/200648Saturday42/4/200771Sunday55/12/200797Saturday610/7/2007148Sunday75/10/2008216Saturday82/1/2009267Sunday95/10/200998Sunday1012/27/2010596Monday (Actual Crime Occurred Sunday)<br />Findings: The Occurrence of the crimes are random in the sense that crimes do not occur on a specific day of the month. However, All crimes have occurred on Saturday or Sunday and crimes do occur near holidays. The rate at which the crimes occur is decelerating. As the intensity of the crime increase the amount of days between crimes increases as well.<br />Temporal Environment- The time environment correlates the time element of a problem with other time factors.<br />VictimDateHolidayTime Reported1Saturday, September 02, 2006Two days before Labor Day10:45:00 PM2Sunday, October 08, 2006Day before Columbus Day12:45:00 AM3Saturday, November 25, 2006Two days after Thanksgiving11:30:00 PM4Sunday, February 04, 2007Super Bowl1:30:00 AM5Saturday, May 12, 2007Day before Mother's Day10:10:00 PM6Sunday, October 07, 2007Day before Columbus Day2:00:00 AM7Saturday, May 10, 2008Day before Mother's Day11:59:00 PM8Sunday, February 01, 2009Super Bowl12:30:00 AM9Sunday, May 10, 2009On Mother's Day1:00:00 AM10Monday, December 27, 2010Two days after Christmas day or one day after Kwanzaa6:00 AM (but crime occurred between 6:00 PM and 12:00 AM the day before)<br />Facts:<br />Findings: All of the sexual assaults occur at night or the early morning. The earliest time a sexual assault was reported was at 10:10 p.m. and the latest was 2:00 a.m. All the crimes occurred in the Fall, Winter and Spring when College is in session. Every sexual assault occurred within two days of a holiday. Two of the assaults happened on Super Bowl Sunday, two the day before Columbus Day and three before or on Mother’s Day. Due to the fact three out of ten sexual assaults occurred near Mother’s Day it is likely that holiday is significant for the offender.<br />Schedule Elements of Time- Describes the personal time requirement of the offender and target.<br />Facts:<br />VictimDay of the WeekTime ReportedTime Suspect Was Available1Saturday10:45:00 PM10:00:00 PM2Sunday12:45:00 AM12:00:00 AM3Saturday11:30:00 PM11:00:00 AM4Sunday1:30:00 AM12:30:00 PM5Saturday10:10:00 PM8:00:00 PM6Sunday2:00:00 AM12:00:00 AM7Saturday11:59:00 PM10:00:00 PM8Sunday12:30:00 AM11:00:00 PM9Sunday1:00:00 AM10:00:00 PM10Sunday1:00:00 AM10:00:00 PM<br />Findings: The offender’s time is occupied Monday through Friday, but does not have to be anywhere Saturday or Sunday night. It is possible the offender has a normal day job based on his time commitments. More specifically the offender has never been available to attack earlier than approximately 8:00 p.m. on a Saturday and approximately 10:00 p.m. on Sunday. The offender has always left the victim before midnight on Saturday, possibly indicating he has commitments such as church early Sunday morning. The latest the offender left on Sunday was 6:00 a.m., however, more likely the latest the offender left on Sunday was approximately 2:30 a.m., possibly indicating a commitment the offender has Monday.<br />At least half of the victims were college students, meaning that their schedules are occupied Monday through Friday with school. Victims 1, 2 and 3 have jobs which likely occupy their time for significant parts of the night, specifically on weekend nights because they work as restaurant servers or bar tenders. Due to the nature of college students scholastic and the other victim’s work requirements, and all the victim’s age it is likely that the victims go to sleep fairly late and sleep in on weekends when possible.<br />Forecast: It is almost certain the next sexual assault will occur on a Saturday or Sunday between 10:00 p.m. and 2:30 a.m. It is likely the next sexual assault will occur on one of the following dates May 7th or 8th, 2011 near Mother’s Day, or October 1st or 2nd, 2011 near Columbus Day, or the 24th or 25th, near Christmas. Also likely, due to the increasing number of days between the sexual assaults is the offender may wait until 2012 to attack. If the offender waits until 2012, the attack will likely be in the beginning of the year such as Super Bowl weekend, being February 4th or 5th. Other less likely possibilities for sexual assaults are the Saturday and Sunday closest to Labor Day, Thanksgiving, or Christmas in 2011 and 2012.<br />Recommendation: Police patrols need to be increased on the Saturday and Sundays near holidays. On Saturdays, police patrolling should begin at approximately 8:00 p.m. until 2:00 a.m. and 10:00 p.m. until 2:30 a.m. on Sunday. The dates police patrol presence should increase the most are May 7th and 8th 2011, October 1st and 2nd, 2011 and December 24th and 25th , 2011 and February 4th and 5th 2012. Special police attention should be placed on the dates of February 4th and 5th of 2012 and on May 7th and 8th of 2011, because these are the most likely dates of another sexual assault. Flyers should also be made and placed around college campuses, bars, restaurant or any popular locations where females in their early twenties hangout. These flyers should advice women to stay in groups and report suspicious activity immediately to the police on the dates listed above.<br />-946150240030<br />663638555245<br />Location<br /> Focal PointWorcesterFacts:ChicopeeBoston4625975-478155-499745-491490<br />Findings: <br />The offender’s first three attacks in Boston where less than 2 miles apart. However, when the offender began moving his attacks to Worcester and Chicopee, his attacks where never less than 38 miles apart since he would switch between Worcester and Chicopee, never striking in the same city twice (with the exception of the first three attacks). Furthermore, all the attacks are less than 2 miles from major highways and are inside a beltway. The offender likely takes Interstate 90 to travel between Chicopee, Worcester, and Boston. Like time, the offender’s distance is increasing with every attack. <br />4481195125095-4064024765<br />Facts:-546100-556895-5378455562604558030-560070<br />Finding: The attacks are never less than five miles from a college campus. <br />Facts: <br />Boston538924512065235839013970-37338013970ChicopeeWorcester<br />11<br />2<br />22<br />1<br />2<br />Findings <br />Finding: the offender’s avenue of approach is generally uniform in Worcester and Chicopee. As shown above, the offenders starts at the green and will go in a relatively straight link to the next location and a straight line in the opposite direction to the next target area. In Worcester the offender went north then back south, where as in Chicopee the offender went south first then north. The offender’s pattern in Boston creates a semi circle with an angled straight shot to the next target. The pattern in Boston indicates the offender likely lives in Boston. <br />Forecasts: The analysts forecast the offender lives or operates in the Boston area due to the first three attacks being in Boston and the attacks being less than 2 miles apart from each other. Furthermore, the offender likely uses Interstate 90 to travel between Boston, Worcester, and Chicopee. Also, the offender likely operates within the beltway area of all three cities. Finally, the analysts forecast the offender’s next attack will likely be in Worcester, within five miles of a college based on analysis in his movement between Boston, Worcester, and Chicopee. It is highly likely the next sexual assault will occur in the victim’s place of residence because the past six sexual assaults in this series have occurred at that location.<br />Recommendations: The analysts recommend alerting the colleges within the beltway area of each city. Advise the colleges who is in risk and what they can do to prevent such an attack from happening. The police in Worcester should also increase patrol in the beltway area at the times recommended within the time section of this report. Furthermore, the analysts forecast the offender will likely strike between the location of the fourth and fifth attack in Worcester. There should be increased patrols in this area during the time mentioned in the time section of this report. Patrols specifically near residential areas, bars, and fast food restaurants. The analysts recommend woman travel in groups and not by themselves when at all possible and to lock all windows and doors at all times. Furthermore, colleges may sponsor classes on self defense and situational awareness. <br /> <br />Behavior67739173423723-834390-79375<br />Facts: <br />44716701183005-291465133350<br />Category: Through analysis of victim and behavior the analyst would classify the offender as an anger rapist with a personal cause issue. The purpose of theses sexual assaults/rapes for the offender was not for sexual gratification as much as it was for punishing/demeaning/humiliating these young woman. The offender believed the victims to be “unclean” and needed to be cleaned and/or punished. The bible quotes, mention of the devil, the cleaning with water (reference to baptism), and dropping of victims at cemeteries (unclean souls are dead souls) lead the analyst to believe the offender does these crimes in order to punish the victim.Findings: <br />Signature: The offender’s signature is constantly evolving. The offender used his van as the crime site until victim five where the offender pulled up to the victim’s residence and entered into that residence to commit the crime. Every sexual assault from there on out occurred in the victim’s residence. Furthermore, the offender began binding and gagging the victims. Also, he began bringing his own tools (condom and cotton cord). The offender started small by taking only $10 and a student ID but later takes panties, wallets, and a photo. Also, the “cleaning” of the girls evolved from wet towels to kitchen cleaners. One factor is constant; the offender always attacked young white girls who where alone in the same three cities and used a firearm to threaten them. The offender also started branding his victims with his cigar at victim seven. <br />Evolution: The offender is always evolving. As shown in the excel sheet, the offender’s rituals are becoming more complex, for example, going from not washing the victim at all, to a wet towel, to kitchen cleaner and the placing of the victim’s sheets in showers or sinks. Also, looking at the time analysis, we see that the offender’s time for each assault is increasing (possibly a change in confidence). Method of operation changes significantly. The offender starts with sexual assaults and progresses to rape, sodomy, and finally, manslaughter. Also, the offender’s first four victims were not washed, bound, gagged, or burned like the rest. The last victim stuck out in that the residence was ransacked and the victim had bite marks and was beaten in the facial area. Finally, when the offender realized he had accidently killed his victim he may have become scared and became irrational and started beating the victim and ransacking the residence. Throughout the offenders evolution the he has continually increased his violence. <br />Mission Creep: The offender’s first three assaults where oral copulation and not rape, it was not until victim five the offender started raping the victims. Eventually the offender began sodomizing the victims and raping and sodomizing the victim multiple times. Eventually the offender committed manslaughter with his last victim. Lastly, the offender transitioned from using his van as the crime scene to the vicims residence.<br />Forecast: Through analysis of the last assault (victim 10) the analysts forecast the offender may take a long break before his next assault. The offender likely ransacked the residence and was more violent than usual with the victim when he realized he killed her. The offender is likely scared and will wait until he feels comfortable to strike again. The offender is likely to continue his methods of operation but is not likely to gag the victim next time in order to prevent a reoccurrence of victim ten. The offender will likely continue quotes from the bible, and his “cleansing of the victim.” The offender will likely target young, single, Caucasian woman again. Throughout the offenders evolution the he has continually increased his violence, and his assaults are highly likely to continue escalating in violence. It is highly likely the next sexual assault will occur in the victim’s place of residence because the past six sexual assaults in this series have occurred at that location. In addition to the next crime occurring at the victim’s residence, the offender will likely enter the residence through an unlocked window.<br />Recommendation: The analysts recommend advising woman (through public service announcements), specifically college age woman, to practice security awareness. This information can be disseminated through college announcements, emails, and flyers. The analysts recommend woman travel in groups and not by themselves when at all possible and to lock all windows and doors at all times. Furthermore, colleges may sponsor classes on self defense and situational awareness. <br />1087120269240<br />-926465-63500<br />69367403270885Victim<br />VictimAgeCaucasianCollege StudentEmployerAction Before AbductedAction During CrimeweaknessFacts123ySuspect thought she wasServer at a downtown restaurantWalking from Boston College Metro Station to her residenceDid not ResistAlone221ynunknownWalking home from a nearby barDid not ResistAlone320ynStarbucksSitting at a bus stopDid not ResistAlone423yyunknownFinished eating at a fast-food restaurant and walked to her carDid not ResistAlone522yyunknownJust left a takeout pizza Restaurant and Parked her car in the driveway of her rental houseDid not ResistAlone621ynNeighborhood barWas sleepingResisted and suspect pulled a gunAlone (unsecured - unlocked window)720yyServer at a local all-night dinerWas walking home after work and unlocking her front doorDid not ResistAlone821yyunknownWas sleeping. But Prior to this she was at a local nightclub with friendsDid not ResistAlone (unsecured - unlocked window)923ynunknownWas sleepingDid not ResistAlone (Unsecured- unlocked window)1020yyunknownUnknown(Possibly Resisted)Alone (Unsecure- no signs of forced entry)<br />Finding (Description, Action, Motivation, Movement): 7029450124460All of the victims of the sexual assaults are Caucasian, between the ages of 20 and 23 and female. All of the victims are at the prime age to attend college however, only half were confirmed college students. Four of the ten victims were employed at typical hangout locations for college students. It is also unlikely the any of the victims had a situational awareness or a sense of security because offender sexually assaulted four of the ten victims through unlocked windows, or other unsecured entrances. The fact that all the women were traveling alone prior to being attacked indicates that they do not travel in groups at night, which would demonstrate a possible lack of security awareness. It is likely that because the women’s way of life included very few if any actions for self protection such as locking windows or traveling in groups, this served as a motivation to be attacked. It is unlikely the victims were wealthy because most of them are college students and the victims were employed in lower end jobs with bad working hours. In addition, victims one and two were using public transportation, and the offender only took $10 from the second victim’s wallet. It should be noted that the past six sexual assaults occurred at the victim’s place of residence.<br />It should also be noted that only one out of nine of the victims resisted (it is unknown if the 10th victim resisted) the sexual assault; even the one victim that did resist at first cooperated once the offender pulled out his gun. It should also be noted every victim of sexual assaults in this series were alone at the time of the assault. All of the victims attacked were in the medium to high risk category. The victims were placed in the high risk level because of their lifestyle, by being connected to alcohol somehow. The other victims were placed in the medium risk category because of their age, and their occupation either being a college student or at a restaurant downtown (night shift), or because the use of public transportation was involved.<br />Forecast: It is almost certain the next victim will be between the ages of 20-23, Caucasian and female. It is equally certain that the victim will be alone, and that the sexual assault will occur at the victim’s place of residence. It is almost certain the victim will be of a medium to high risk level, and likely middle class. There is a 50% chance the next victim will be a college student. It is likely the next victim will be moving from a fast food restaurant, night club or bar and be heading to their residence, or will be sleeping when the sexual assault occurs. Most likely the victim will be at their place of residence, in bed, when the next sexual assault occurs; because prior to the 10th victim the past two were sleeping at the time of the assault.<br />Recommendation: It is recommended police sponsor basic self defense tactics for women, with specific advertising occurring at college campuses. Police should place posters informing women in their early twenties to be on the alert and have situational awareness. The poster should advise women to travel in groups back to their residence. The poster should also include the local police department non emergency number so women unaccompanied by a group can request a police escort back to their residence. Posters should be placed at all hangout areas where women in their early twenties hangout such as bars, nightclubs, fast food restraints, etc. Police patrol presence should increase at these locations as well, being specifically attentive to lone men scouting out these areas or nearby residences.<br />-94297595885<br />69297553286125OffenderDescription:<br />123253537465<br />147254081820<br />Actions:<br />Motivation: Through analysis of victim and behavior the analysts would classify the offender as an anger rapist with a personal cause issue. The purpose of theses sexual assaults/rapes for the offender was not for sexual gratification as much as it was for punishing/demeaning/humiliating these young women. The offender believed the victims to be “unclean” and needed to be cleaned and/or punished. The bible quotes, the mention of the devil, the cleaning with water (reference to baptism), and the dropping of victims at cemeteries (unclean souls are dead souls) led the analysts to believe the offender does these crimes in order to punish the victim.<br />Movement: The offender is changing his behavior as the crimes go on. The offender’s rituals are becoming more complex, for example, going from not washing the victim at all, to a wet towel, to kitchen cleaner and the placing of the victim’s sheets in showers or sinks. Also, by looking at the time analysis, we see that the time the offender takes for each assault is increasing (possibly a change in confidence). His method of operation changes significantly. The offender starts with sexual assaults and progresses to rape, sodomy, and finally, manslaughter. Also, the offender’s first four victims were not washed, bound, gagged, or burned like the rest. The last victim stuck out because the residence had been ransacked and the victim had bite marks and was beaten in the facial area. Also, the offender used a van as the crime scene for the first four crimes until he resorted to using the victim’s residence as the crime scene. Finally, when the offender realized he had accidently killed his victim he may have become scared and irrational and started beating the victim and ransacking the victim’s residence. With regards to spatial movement, the offender moves uniformly from city to city. The offender never commits an assault in the same city (with the exception of Boston, his possible place of residence). However, the offender does change the location of where he commits the assaults. The offender moves from using his van for the assaults, from pulling up in his van and entering the victim’s residence, to finally entering the victim’s residence (via unlocked window) while the victim sleeps. The offenders target selection is constant. The offender targets young (20-23), Caucasian woman who are alone. <br />Findings: Everything the offender did was premeditated. He scouted out his victims and abducted them when the victims were alone. The victims were likely targeted because of their age, race, and the offender’s belief that they were all college students. The offender may have a previous military record and is likely an enlisted soldier. The offender likely believes the women he is targeting are unclean/dirty, and therefore, it is his obligation to “clean” the victims. The offender likely takes mementos in order to relive the crime. <br /> <br />Forecast: Through analysis the analysts forecast the offender is likely single, religious, possibly has a maintenance job/handyman, and conducts business in Boston, Worcester, and Chicopee. The offender likely spends time at bars and fast food joints. Financial status is likely lower middle class. He has a significant relationship with mother (unknown whether good or bad relationship) and does not get along with women. In fact, the offender is likely a woman hater, hence, the “cleaning” of the victims by the offender. The purpose of these sexual assaults/rapes for the offender was not for sexual gratification as much as it was for punishing/demeaning/humiliating these young women. The purpose of these sexual assaults/rapes for the offender was not for sexual gratification as much as it was for punishing/demeaning/humiliating these young women. The offender believed the victims to be “unclean” and needed to be cleaned and/or punished. The offender is highly likely to continue his method of operation (i.e. use handgun, condoms, beating, cleaning victim, bindings, and mementos) but is also likely to escalate the assaults in violence (more beating and burning). Furthermore, the offender lacks confidence. He targets women when they are alone probably due to lack of confidence which further shows his lack of social skills with women. He cannot confront women in a group so he abducts the woman when she are alone and vulnerable.<br />Recommendations: The analysts recommend police and colleges be on the lookout for a white male who is 25-35, is 150-225 pounds, has muscular build, is athletic, is a maintenance worker or handyman, has military like tattoos, is single, is religious and spends time around cheap restaurants/dinners and bars and has limited social interaction with females. Furthermore, analysts recommend colleges and police keep a lookout for the light colored van.<br />-958412252248<br />70199253315335 Annex<br />3067050<br />-198120360680<br />10987654321196215-245745<br />Average DaysLeast Days Between CrimeMaximum Days Between CrimeSt Deviation175.2236.00596.00175.50Next HitMin Earliest2/1/20111 St Deviation Earliest12/26/20101 St Deviation Latest12/12/2011Max Latest8/14/2012<br />Note: these dates should not be given much weight in the forecasting of the next crime date, because the amount of days between crimes drastically increases throwing the average off, and the amount of days between crimes continues to increase.<br />360045-423545<br />Phase 1<br />Victim Reports<br />VICTIM # 1 A 23-year-old Caucasian female was forced to orally copulate the suspect on 9/2/2006, (2245 hrs) near her residence in the 200 block of Undine Road, Boston. After finishing work as a server in a downtown restaurant, the victim had been walking from the Boston College Metro station to her residence. The suspect approached her from behind, displayed a small handgun, and forced her into a large light colored van that was parked in the alley. The victim stated the suspect was very nervous and in a hurry. The assault took place in the rear cargo area. After the assault, she was forced out of the van and the suspect drove away. She said the interior light did not go on when the doors opened. She believes she saw toolboxes, a sleeping bag and gym bags in the back of the van.<br />VICTIM # 2 A 21-year-old Caucasian female was sexually assaulted at 0045 hrs 10/8/2006 on Shanley Street, Boston. The victim was walking home from a nearby bar. The suspect approached her from behind, displayed a small chrome handgun and forced her into a van that was parked near the athletic park. He forced her to orally copulate him in the cargo area of the van. She said there were some type of work tools and small bags of possible clothes on the floor. There was also a blanket and pillow on the mattress. He forced her out and he fled in the van. The victim stated the suspect went through her pants pockets and stole about $10 and her student ID card.<br />VICTIM # 3 A 20-year-old Caucasian female was sexually assaulted at 2330 hrs on 11/25/2006. The victim was sitting on a bus stop bench at Tappan St and Beacon St after working at a local Starbucks in Boston, MA. The suspect stopped a large van in front of her and exited. He approached her, asked her for directions to the local college, and then asked her if she was “working for $50.” She said no but then suspect called her a whore and pointed a large gun at her. He threatened to shoot her and ordered her into the van. He forced the victim onto a floor and drove for about 10 minutes. When they stopped, he forced the victim to orally copulate him. The assault took place in the front seat area. The suspect ordered the victim out and drove away. The victim found herself at Newton Cemetery, Boston, MA.<br />VICTIM # 4 In Worcester, MA, a 23-year-old Caucasian female, a student at a local college, was kidnapped and raped at 0130 hrs 2/4/2007 in the suspects van. The victim had just exited a fast food restaurant near Hale St and was walking to her car when the suspect exited a parked white van. The van was parked next to her vehicle. The suspect pointed a gun at her and forced her into it. He drove a few minutes and stopped by a park. He forced her onto a mattress in the cargo area and raped her after forcing her to orally copulate him. The suspect robbed her of her purse and kept her panties. She saw cardboard boxes in the van, plus a sleeping bag on the mattress. The victim identified Calvary Cemetery as the crime scene. <br />VICTIM # 5 A 22-year-old Caucasian female, a student at a local college, was sexually assaulted at 2210 hrs on 5/12/2007, in the city of Chicopee, MA. The victim had just left a take out pizza restaurant and parked her car in the driveway of her rental house several blocks away on East St. As she exited her car with the pizza, the suspect parked his van behind her car, got out, and approached her. He pointed a gun at her, asked if anyone else was home and forced her into her residence. He was wearing a loose fitting jogging suit and a large hat pulled down on his head. Once inside the residence, he forced her into the bedroom, placed a pillowcase over her head and raped her. He then tied her to the bed with used her belt and nylons to tie her up. He then searched her bedroom dresser and took some jewelry. He also ate the pizza and smoked a cigar. He then forced her to orally copulate him and left after telling her he would watch the house for 15 minutes. The suspect wore a condom for the rape but not the oral sexual assault. He also took her purse and panties when he fled. <br />VICTIM # 6 At 0200 hrs 10/7/2007, a 21-year-old Caucasian female was awakened in her apartment and raped. Her ground level apartment is located in the 70 block of Bowdoin St., Worchester, MA. The victim stated she had been home for about an hour after having finished waitressing at a local neighborhood bar and had just gone to bed. The investigation revealed that the suspect entered via an unlocked window. She stated he beat her when she initially resisted the first assault but then the suspect displayed a small gun. The suspect apologized to her saying it was the devil that caused him to strike her. The suspect sexually assaulted her vaginally and then orally. The suspect wore a condom for the rape but not the oral sexual assault. The suspect used a condom and made the victim wash and shower after the attacks. The suspect took her wallet but not her purse and a small ring. <br />VICTIM # 7 On 5/10/2008, at 2359 hrs, a 20-year-old Caucasian female, a student at a local college, reported that she was raped about an hour before midnight in her residence located in the 10th block of on Leonard St, Chicopee, MA. The victim was walking home thru an alley after working as a server for a local all-night diner. As she was unlocking her front door, the suspect approached her on foot and then forced her at gunpoint inside. He forced the victim onto her bed for the assaults. He first demanded the victim to orally copulate him and then he raped her. The suspect wore a condom for the rape but not the sexual assault. The suspect gagged her with her sock and tied her with a cotton cord that he took from his pocket. Before leaving, he put all the bed sheets in the shower and wiped her down with a wet towel. He then anally assaulted her and called her a whore. He also burnt her one time with a cigar he had started to smoke. The suspect kept her panties. The victim heard a vehicle start and drive away.<br />VICTIM # 8 On 2/1/2009 a 21-year-old Caucasian female, a student at a local college, was awakened and raped at 0030 hrs in her apartment on Kosta St, Worcester, MA. The victim had spent the evening with friends at a local nightclub and had walked home by herself. The suspect had entered via an unlocked window. The suspect was dressed in all black, wore a ski mask and had a small handgun. He tied her hands and ankles with a cotton cord and blindfolded her with a pillowcase. The suspect sexually assaulted her several times; first vaginally and then anally. The attacker used a condom, and washed her with a towel. He also quoted an unknown bible verse about cleanliness and then need to wash with water to become clean again. He also washed himself and put the bed sheets into the sink covered in water. He burnt her one time with a cigar that he had lit-up after the assaults. The suspect took a chain with a gold cross that the victim was wearing. He also slapped her in the face area and called her a whore.<br />

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