Hail suppression in greece

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Hail suppression in greece

  1. 1. George N. Farazoulis ELGA/GREECE Weather Modification Activities in Greece
  2. 2. George N. Farazoulis / ELGA/GREECE Greece EUROPE
  3. 3. George N. Farazoulis / ELGA/GREECE In Greece the only institute which is involved with weather mod activity is ELGA ELGA=Hellenic AgriculturalELGA=Hellenic Agricultural Insurance OrganizationInsurance Organization
  4. 4. George N. Farazoulis / ELGA/GREECE ELGA is the main public carrier of insurance coverage in agricultural exploitation in Greece which is supervised by the Greek Ministry of Rural Development and Food.
  5. 5. George N. Farazoulis / ELGA/GREECE The insurance that ELGA provides is compulsory and protects the agricultural production and the livestock of the country.
  6. 6. George N. Farazoulis / ELGA/GREECE ELGA’sELGA’s Main Target ActivitiesMain Target Activities 1. Crop Insurance1. Crop Insurance ( Against specific perils( Against specific perils i.e. frost , hail , flood etc)i.e. frost , hail , flood etc) MPCI systemMPCI system 2. Loss Prevention2. Loss Prevention
  7. 7. George N. Farazoulis / ELGA/GREECE Loss PreventionLoss Prevention Aims to prevent or to suppress the Insured and the not-Insured Risks
  8. 8. George N. Farazoulis / ELGA/GREECE Loss PreventionLoss Prevention activityactivity 1.Application of experimental1.Application of experimental-- operational projectsoperational projects 2.Subsidization of protection’s2.Subsidization of protection’s meansmeans TheThe whole procedure is promoting straight to the insured farmer.whole procedure is promoting straight to the insured farmer. MainMain Covered RisksCovered Risks :: FrostFrost ++ HailHail Future interested Risk :Future interested Risk : Flood , WindFlood , Wind
  9. 9. George N. Farazoulis / ELGA/GREECE Operational projectsOperational projects FrostFrost Fog systemFog system HailHail 1.1. Airborne cloud seedingAirborne cloud seeding 2.2. Hail CanonsHail Canons
  10. 10. George N. Farazoulis / ELGA/GREECE Subsidization of protection’s means FrostFrost Wind machineWind machine HailHail Hail netsHail nets
  11. 11. George N. Farazoulis / ELGA/GREECE Loss Prevention’s Site Map
  12. 12. George N. Farazoulis / ELGA/GREECE HAIL Protection with airborne seeding 3 Piper Cheyenne II3 Piper Cheyenne II Seeding agent :Seeding agent :AgIAgI Flares 20gr and 70grFlares 20gr and 70gr Total Protected AreaTotal Protected Area :5000km:5000km²² Cultivation : FruitsCultivation : Fruits
  13. 13. George N. Farazoulis / ELGA/GREECE OPERATIONAL AREAS
  14. 14. George N. Farazoulis / ELGA/GREECE A1 Central Macedonia
  15. 15. George N. Farazoulis / ELGA/GREECE Area: Α1 Naoussa Edessa Veria Gianitsa CULTIVATIONS: Fruits CULTIVATIONS: • Wheat • Tobacco • Cotton • Corn
  16. 16. George N. Farazoulis / ELGA/GREECE A3 Thessaly
  17. 17. George N. Farazoulis / ELGA/GREECE 2 S band EEC radars +2 C Band (alternative )
  18. 18. George N. Farazoulis / ELGA/GREECE HAIL control (Thessaloniki airport)
  19. 19. George N. Farazoulis / ELGA/GREECE 142 Hailpads 64 Rain gauges
  20. 20. George N. Farazoulis / ELGA/GREECE HAILFALL OCCURRENCE IN CENTRAL MACEDONIA, GREECE 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 Rel.Frequency(%) April May June July August Sept.
  21. 21. George N. Farazoulis / ELGA/GREECE Evaluation of the Greek Hail Suppression Program
  22. 22. George N. Farazoulis / ELGA/GREECE A few words before the results It’s reasonable to Evaluate an Operational Cloud Seeding Program?
  23. 23. George N. Farazoulis / ELGA/GREECE TRESSA FOWLER No conclusions can be drawn fromNo conclusions can be drawn from statistical evaluations ofstatistical evaluations of operationaloperational programs.programs. No exceptions.No exceptions.
  24. 24. George N. Farazoulis / ELGA/GREECE Why Not? or the Bad News Often no control group.Often no control group. When there is, usually systematicWhen there is, usually systematic differences between control anddifferences between control and treatment:treatment: not selected at random.not selected at random. comparison of before and after.comparison of before and after. Possible hidden cause.Possible hidden cause. TRESSA FOWLER
  25. 25. George N. Farazoulis / ELGA/GREECE TO TEST THE PHYSICAL HYPOTHESES OF HOW SEEDING IS SUPPOSED TO WORK, RANDOMIZED EXPERIMENTS ARE NEEDED
  26. 26. George N. Farazoulis / ELGA/GREECE DIFFICULTIES ON STATISTICAL EVALUATION NEED TO CONVIENCE SCIENTISTS FINANCIER PEOPLE Theoretician •Conceptual model •Physical hypothesis Operational •Procedures •Equipment They do not care about evaluation, but just for the (economic) results. They care about rain enhancement or hail suppression.
  27. 27. George N. Farazoulis / ELGA/GREECE THE GREEK NATIONAL HAIL SUPPRESSION PROJECT ΑΑ22 ΑΑ11 ΑΑ33 •OPERATION. AREAS: A1, A2 A3 (4000 Km2) •TIME PERIOD •KIND OF OPERAT.: A1 Research & Ops :1984-88: 15-Apr. - 30 Sep.
  28. 28. George N. Farazoulis / ELGA/GREECE Edessa Veria Giannitsa (1) (2) Area: Α1 Crossover North South ““CROSSOVER DESIGN”CROSSOVER DESIGN” Randomize the two areas (North and South) for each experimental unit. End of experimental unit, 7 daylight hours after last operation.
  29. 29. George N. Farazoulis / ELGA/GREECE Hailpad Network
  30. 30. George N. Farazoulis / ELGA/GREECE Typical Hailpad
  31. 31. George N. Farazoulis / ELGA/GREECE TOTAL HAILFALL OCCURRENCES AT EACH HAILPAD SITE IN CENTRAL MACEDONIA, GREECE
  32. 32. George N. Farazoulis / ELGA/GREECE RATIO STATISTICS 1. The results are positive. 2. 18 (out of 21) parameters are statistically accepted at the 5% level of significance. 3. Their effect is between 35% and 72%. 4. Only 3 (out of 21) parameters are not statistically accepted at α=0.05. In spite of that, they show positive results. Single Ratio: seeding at the south part of area A, was more successful of that at the north part. The Stone Kinetic Energy (Τ) parameter was considered as the tentative candidate for the “primary evaluation parameter”. Hence, the established 70% effect, would be more valuable and trustworthy, if it would be calculated on time.
  33. 33. George N. Farazoulis / ELGA/GREECE The current project ends on 2008. From now we are preparing for the new period 2009-2013
  34. 34. George N. Farazoulis / ELGA/GREECE Let’s •the met to direct the pilots •the pilots to fly in the cells •the scientists to continue the research A wish for the new project
  35. 35. George N. Farazoulis / ELGA/GREECE A new Hail protection project with G.B.G. in GREECE
  36. 36. George N. Farazoulis / ELGA/GREECE The initial target area A1
  37. 37. George N. Farazoulis / ELGA/GREECE The initial proposed sitting ……..
  38. 38. George N. Farazoulis / ELGA/GREECE Procedures had been followed… 1. ELGA’s Board decision → done 2. Working team to carry out the project → done 3. Specifications ( who is going to do what ) → done 4. International tender → done 5. Start point…… → not yet
  39. 39. George N. Farazoulis / ELGA/GREECE • WMA in the field of weather modification • Cyprus in the field of Agr. Insurances • Serbia in the field of Active Protection • AIAG in the field of Agr. Insurances • Austria in the field of Airborne Cloud Seeding • Italy for Civil Protection • Spain in the field of Cloud Seeding by Ground Means • Argentina in the field of weather modification • Bulgaria & Croatia …. it’s coming soon International Collaboration Indicative list
  40. 40. George N. Farazoulis / ELGA/GREECE Argentina
  41. 41. George N. Farazoulis / ELGA/GREECE Argentina
  42. 42. George N. Farazoulis / ELGA/GREECE ….. the agreement with ELGA….
  43. 43. George N. Farazoulis / ELGA/GREECE AUSTRIA Airborne cloud seeding for Hail Suppression Protected area: ~2500 km2 140 hailpads 2 x 2 km grid
  44. 44. George N. Farazoulis / ELGA/GREECE The Austrian Hail Defense A/C (from the left to the right) : Cessna 206 OE-DUM- Cessna 210 OE-DSD- Cessna 172 OE-DLS
  45. 45. George N. Farazoulis / ELGA/GREECE Cessna 210 OE-DSD Wingspan: 10,2 m Engine: Lycoming 6-cylinders 290 HP 2 silver-iodide- generators 2 flare racks
  46. 46. George N. Farazoulis / ELGA/GREECE One of the two silver-iodide generators on the Cessna 210. Above a flare rack The flares contain pressed black powder with appr. 7 % volume of silver iodide The burning duration of the flares manufactured by the Austrian company Pinto 7 min
  47. 47. George N. Farazoulis / ELGA/GREECE Bulgaria The Hail Suppression Project with the rockets has terminated
  48. 48. George N. Farazoulis / ELGA/GREECE Although the Bulgarian hail project has terminated ….. •They continue to produce AgI •The Government is thinking to start an airborne cloud seeding project in collaboration with Greece •The future is open
  49. 49. George N. Farazoulis / ELGA/GREECE SPAIN Hail Suppression Project with GBG
  50. 50. George N. Farazoulis / ELGA/GREECE
  51. 51. George N. Farazoulis / ELGA/GREECE Weather Modification Activities in Cyprus
  52. 52. George N. Farazoulis / ELGA/GREECE Where is Cyprus…
  53. 53. George N. Farazoulis / ELGA/GREECE No Weather Mod Activities YET ………. OGA (Cyprus) is thinking to follow the ELGA (Greek) experience

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