UK and German May Monthly Hotel Forecast Highlights

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Monthly hotel forecasts for key UK and German markets. New reports launched as result of predictive intelligence collaboration between e-forecasting.com and HotStats. Hotel market forecasts highlights for April for following markets: Berlin, Birmingham, Bristol, Cardiff, Frankfurt, Glasgow, Liverpool, London, Manchester, Munich, Newcastle, Provincial UK and Total UK.

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UK and German May Monthly Hotel Forecast Highlights

  1. 1. Client-tailored solutions for what’s next UK & German Monthly Hotel Market Forecast May Highlights Presented by E-forecasting.com & HotStats
  2. 2. Client-tailored solutions for what’s next 7/30/2013 2 Monthly Hotel Forecasts  Launched in June 2013, e−forecasting.com released market Monthly Hotel Forecasts of key UK and German markets using HotStats historical data  More markets in Europe and MENA to follow in the coming months
  3. 3. Client-tailored solutions for what’s next 7/30/2013 3 Current Forecast Markets  Berlin  Birmingham  Bristol  Cardiff  Frankfurt  Glasgow  Liverpool  London  Manchester  Munich  Newcastle  Provincial UK  Total UK
  4. 4. Client-tailored solutions for what’s next 7/30/2013 4 Monthly Hotel Forecast Reports  Historic hotel market data from powerful HotStats database  24 month forecast, 8 quarters out, 2 years out  Key metrics: occupancy, ADR, RevPAR  Proprietary hotel metrics: – HIP - hotel industry pulse – HIL - hotel industry leading indicator – FTLI – foreign travel leading indicator – Monthly GDP  Additional econometric insights: – Labor market conditions – Inflation – Exchange and interest rates – Energy prices – Special events
  5. 5. Client-tailored solutions for what’s next 7/30/2013 5 UK Hotel Market Forecast May Report Highlights  UK countrywide 2 year forecast: – Increase 1.9% in 2014 and 2.2% in 2015 – Long term economic growth = 2.2%  Monetary policy: no policy changes in previous month, all other key rates on hold  Oil prices: WTI & Brent prices lowering  Financial futures: US dollar and British Pound mixed
  6. 6. Client-tailored solutions for what’s next 7/30/2013 6 UK Hotel Market Forecast May Data Highlights  UK HIP – up 3.1%  UK HIL – up 0.1%  Probability of upcoming recession: 30.9%  UK Monthly GDP – up 0.1%  UK FTLI up 0.2%  Consumer prices up 2.7%  Unemployment rate at 7.8%  Consumer confidence up  Business executives less optimistic  Builders showing lower expectations
  7. 7. Client-tailored solutions for what’s next 7/30/2013 7 UK Hotel Forecast Highlights Market 2014 RevPAR Forecast 2015 RevPAR Forecast Birmingham (0.8%) 2.5% Bristol 0.1% 1.8% Cardiff 2% 2.2% Glasgow (0.6%) (2.9%) Liverpool 4.8% 3.2% London (2.2%) (3.1%) Manchester (1.4%) 0.4% Newcastle 7.8% 3.7% Provincial UK 0.1% (0.1%) Total UK (2.5%) (0.4%)
  8. 8. Client-tailored solutions for what’s next 7/30/2013 8 German Hotel Market Forecast May Report Highlights  German countrywide 2 year forecast: – Increase 1.7% in 2014 and 1.9% in 2015 – Long term economic growth = 1.7%  Monetary policy: no policy changes in previous month, all other key rates on hold  Oil prices: WTI & Brent prices lowering  Financial futures: US dollar and Euro mixed
  9. 9. Client-tailored solutions for what’s next 7/30/2013 9 German Hotel Market Forecast May Data Highlights  German HIP – flat  German HIL – up 0.1%  Probability of upcoming recession: 23.4%  German Monthly GDP – flat  German FTLI up 0.2%  Consumer prices up 1.5%  Unemployment rate at 5.3%  Consumer confidence up  Business executives less optimistic  Builders showing lower expectations
  10. 10. Client-tailored solutions for what’s next 7/30/2013 10 German Hotel Forecast May Report Highlights Market 2014 RevPAR Forecast 2015 RevPAR Forecast Berlin (9.7%) (0.1%) Frankfurt (4.5%) 0.4% Munich (13%) 2%
  11. 11. Client-tailored solutions for what’s next 7/30/2013 11 For More Information  Monthly hotel forecast highlights were taken from the June issue of Monthly Hotel Forecasts, please visit: – http://www.e-forecasting.com or email info@e-forecasting.com for subscription rates and queries on additional markets

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