UK and German April Monthly Hotel Forecast Highlights

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Monthly hotel forecasts for key UK and German markets. New reports launched as result of predictive intelligence collaboration between e-forecasting.com and HotStats. Hotel market forecasts highlights for April for following markets: Berlin, Birmingham, Bristol, Cardiff, Frankfurt, Glasgow, Liverpool, London, Manchester, Munich, Newcastle, Provincial UK and Total UK.

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UK and German April Monthly Hotel Forecast Highlights

  1. 1. Client-tailored solutions for what’s nextUK & German Monthly HotelMarket ForecastApril HighlightsPresented byE-forecasting.com & HotStats
  2. 2. Client-tailored solutions for what’s next6/18/20132Monthly Hotel Forecasts Launched in June 2013,e−forecasting.com and HotStatsdevelop market Monthly HotelForecasts of key UK and Germanmarkets More markets in Europe and MENA tofollow in the coming months
  3. 3. Client-tailored solutions for what’s next6/18/20133Current Forecast Markets Berlin Birmingham Bristol Cardiff Frankfurt Glasgow Liverpool London Manchester Munich Newcastle Provincial UK Total UK
  4. 4. Client-tailored solutions for what’s next6/18/20134Monthly Hotel ForecastReports Historic hotel market data from powerful HotStats database 24 month forecast, 8 quarters out, 2 years out Key metrics: occupancy, ADR, RevPAR Proprietary hotel metrics:– HIP - hotel industry pulse– HIL - hotel industry leading indicator– FTLI – foreign travel leading indicator– Monthly GDP Additional econometric insights:– Labor market conditions– Inflation– Exchange and interest rates– Energy prices– Special events
  5. 5. Client-tailored solutions for what’s next6/18/20135UK Hotel Market ForecastApril Highlights UK countrywide 2 year forecast:– Increase 1.9% in 2014 and 2.2% in 2015– Long term economic growth = 2.2% Monetary policy: Euro refinancing ratedown, due to rising inflation, all otherkey rates on hold Oil prices: WTI & Brent prices lowering Financial futures: US dollar and BritishPound mixed
  6. 6. Client-tailored solutions for what’s next6/18/20136UK Hotel Market ForecastApril Highlights UK HIP – up 2.4% UK HIL – up 1.7% Probability of upcoming recession: 34.9% UK Monthly GDP – down 0.1% UK FTLI up 0.2% Consumer prices up 2.4% Unemployment rate at 7.8% Consumer confidence down Business executives less optimistic Builders showing lower expectations
  7. 7. Client-tailored solutions for what’s next6/18/20137UK Hotel Forecast HighlightsMarket 2014 RevPARForecast2015 RevPARForecastBirmingham (0.2%) 2.1%Bristol (0.1%) 1.7%Cardiff (3%) (0.1%)Glasgow (0.3%) (3.2%)Liverpool 3.8% 2.7%London (2.8%) (0.2%)Manchester (1.9%) (0.2%)Newcastle 6.6% 2.4%Provincial UK 0.1% (0.2%)Total UK (2.8%) 0%
  8. 8. Client-tailored solutions for what’s next6/18/20138German Hotel Market ForecastApril Highlights German countrywide 2 year forecast:– Increase 1.9% in 2014 and 2.0% in 2015– Long term economic growth = 1.7% Monetary policy: Euro refinancing ratedown, due to rising inflation, all otherkey rates on hold Oil prices: WTI & Brent prices lowering Financial futures: US dollar and Euromixed
  9. 9. Client-tailored solutions for what’s next6/18/20139German Hotel Market ForecastApril Highlights German HIP – flat German HIL – up 0.8% Probability of upcoming recession: 25.6% German Monthly GDP – up 0.1% German FTLI up 0.1% Consumer prices up 1.4% Unemployment rate at 5.4% Consumer confidence up Business executives less optimistic Builders showing lower expectations
  10. 10. Client-tailored solutions for what’s next6/18/201310German Hotel ForecastApril HighlightsMarket 2014 RevPARForecast2015 RevPARForecastBerlin (8.4%) 0.3%Frankfurt (4.7%) (0.4%)Munich (12.9%) (1.1%)
  11. 11. Client-tailored solutions for what’s next6/18/201311For More Information Monthly hotel forecast highlightswere taken from the May issue ofMonthly Hotel Forecasts, please visit:– http://www.e-forecasting.com or emailinfo@e-forecasting.com for subscriptionrates and queries on additional markets

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