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Stephen Carver


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Project Leadership - Stephen Carver

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Stephen Carver

  1. 1. Project Leadership Stephen Carver FAPM FIRM School of Management Cranfield University EVA
  2. 2. Don’t want to do Want to do Unplanned Types of Change Strategic Projects Adventures Compliance Projects Crisis Planned
  3. 3. 68% Project Failure Rate What are the main reasons?....
  4. 4. “People don’t like to plan - Planning is unnatural - It is much more fun just to do. And the nice thing about just doing is that failure comes as a complete surprise. Whereas if you have planned, the failure is preceded by a long period of despair and worry” Sir John Harvey Jones Planning
  5. 5. Chesley B. “Sully” Sullenberger III Calm - Professional Absorbed Change Dealt with Complexity Checklists/Systems Good Communicator Situationally Aware Empowered Leader & Manager Positive Outcome
  6. 6. Project Management A definition: •The discipline of assuring that meticulous attention is paid to EVERY aspect of the project
  7. 7. “The only problem with common sense is that it is not very common” Voltaire !!Stress!! Cobbs Paradox
  8. 8. Ambiguity effect Anchoring Attentional bias Availability heuristic Availability cascade Backfire Bandwagon effect Groupthink Herd behaviour Base rate fallacy Belief bias Bias blind spot Choice-supportive bias Clustering Confirmation Congruence bias Conjunction Conservatism - Bayesian Contrast Curse of knowledge Decoy effect Denomination effect Distinction bias Duration neglect Empathy gap Endowment effect Essentialism Exaggerated Experimenter's Expectation bias False-consensus Functional fixedness Focusing effect Forer effect Barnum Framing effect Recency illusion Gambler's law of large numbers Hard-easy effect Hindsight bias Hostile media effect Hot-hand fallacy Hyperbolic discounting Dynamic inconsistency. Identifiable victim effect Illusion of control Illusion of validity Illusory correlation Impact bias Information bias Insensitivity to sample size Irrational Just-world Less-is-better effect Loss aversion Sunk cost effects Ludic fallacy Mere exposure effect Mirror-imaging Money illusion Moral credential effect Negativity bias Neglect of probability Normalcy bias Observation selection Observer-expectancy effect Subject-expectancy effect Omission bias Optimism bias Wishful thinking, Valence effect Positive outcome bias Ostrich effect Overconfidence Pareidolia Pessimism bias. Planning fallacy Post-purchase rationalization Pro-innovation bias Pseudocertainty Reactive devaluation Recency bias Recency illusion Restraint bias Rhyme as reason effect Risk compensation Peltzman effect Selective perception Semmelweis reflex Selection Social comparison Social desirability bias Status quo bias Stereotyping Subadditivity effect Subjective validation Survivorship Survivorship bias Texas sharpshooter fallacy Time-saving bias Unit bias Well travelled road effect Zero-risk bias Are we rational?
  9. 9. Chaos Complex or Complicated?
  10. 10. What is Complexity? •‘Complicated’ e.g. a Swiss watch. Linear & predictable •‘Complex’: from the Latin ‘complexus’ (braided together). Nonlinear & unpredictable. •Like quality – it is hard to quantify •is something that is experienced.
  11. 11. Complexities •Structural Complexity: BITS –Number, size, financial scale, interdependencies, variety, pace, technology, breadth of scope, number of specialities, multiple locations/time-zones. IQ
  12. 12. Complexities •Emergent Complexity: CHANGE –Technological and commercial maturity & change, novelty, clarity of vision / goals, clear success criteria / benefits, previous experience, availability of information, unidentified stakeholders, “missing” plan, unforeseen, unknowables.
  13. 13. Structural Dimension Low High High Low Complex Dynamic Agile Project Programme Two Dimensions of Complexity Emergent Dimension
  14. 14. “There is nothing more difficult to arrange, more doubtful of success and more dangerous to carry through, than leading change. The change leader makes enemies of all those who prospered under the old order and only lukewarm support is forthcoming from those who would prosper under the new. Niccolo Machiavelli Leading Change Projects
  15. 15. Socio Political Complexity Communication Intuition Power & Politics Stakeholders Culture Personality Initative/Drive Social Systems EQ
  16. 16. The 3 Complexities “In your work, which of the 3 complexities is the most difficult to manage?” “In your own formal training and development, which of the 3 complexities has received the most attention?” We asked 246 Qualified Change Managers: Structural Socio- political Emergent Structural Socio- political Emergent Structural Complexity Socio-political Complexity Emergent Complexity
  17. 17. Choice of PM? © Cranfield University 2013 20 ‘Manager’ S E S-P ‘Entrepreneur’ ‘Leader’  Structural Managerial response  Socio-political Leadership response  Emergent Entrepreneurial response
  18. 18. A desk is a very dangerous place from which to view the World John Le Carre
  19. 19. PPM – Maturity Levels 1 2 3 4 5 Ad Hoc Disorganised, accidental success Minimal Some process, inconsistent success Compliant Standardised, more predictable Competitive Controlled and measured processes, results more in line with plans World Class Continuous process improvement , success is normal
  20. 20. 1 2 3 4 5 Competitive: provides source of competitive advantage, focused, metrics determine areas for improvement, supports business strategy. Compliant: follows industry-accepted norms, improvements sporadic, process-focused, cost of failure significant, little strategic contribution Minimal: tasked with ‘not messing up’, some use of standards, reactive, high cost of failure, negative strategic contribution. Ad hoc: unreliable delivery, very high cost of failure, strongly negative strategic contribution World-class: redefines delivery in the industry, automatically improving, very hard to imitate by competitors, drives business strategy. Limit of process based approach PPM – Strategic Advantage Strategic Contribution Stakeholders/Perceptions/Emotions
  21. 21. Stakeholder Support •Championing •Support •Approval: “yes” •Commitment •Co-operation •Compliance •Neutrality •Inertia •Obstruction •Antagonism •Opposition •Rejection: “no” •Mutiny •Sabotage level of support
  22. 22. It’s landing that counts!
  23. 23. 68% Success is the ability to go from one failure to another… with absolutely no loss of enthusiasm!
  24. 24. Stephen Carver School of Management Cranfield University Thank you!