1.
TRADING
RISKS
How startups and
multinationals
should
recalibrate their
relationships
after years of
fumbling around
and why building
no-bullshit
synergies matter
more than ever.

2.
PHILIPPE MÉDA
@icopilots

3.
TRADING
RISKS
1. RISK IS A SUNK COST
2. LEVERAGING BLINDSPOTS
3. CHEATING THE CASINO

4.
TRADING
RISKS
1. RISK IS A SUNK COST
2. LEVERAGING BLINDSPOTS
3. CHEATING THE CASINO

5.
I have known adventures, seen places
you people will never see, I've been
Offworld and back...frontiers! I've
stood on the back deck of a blinker
bound for the Plutition Camps with
sweat in my eyes watching the stars
fight on the shoulder of Orion. I've
felt wind in my hair, riding test boats
off the black galaxies and seen an
attack fleet burn like a match and
disappear. I've seen it...felt it!
I've seen things you people wouldn't
believe. Attack ships on fire off the
shoulder of Orion. I watched C-beams
glitter in the dark near the
Tannhäuser Gate. All those moments
will be lost in time, like tears in rain.
Time to die.
RISK IS A SUNK COST

6.
Built to explore a specific risk ✔
Burn resources faster than normal ✔
Dies after for 2.8 years ✔
RISK IS A SUNK COST

7.
Invention means the
conception of a novelty.
Instead innovation is
defined by the introduction
of the invention in the social
environment.
The market is a specific
form of social organization.
Joseph SCHUMPETER
RISK IS A SUNK COST

8.
How do we rebuild
urban on-demand mobility
without legacy platforms?
RISK IS A SUNK COST

9.
How do we rebuild
urban on-demand mobility
without legacy platforms?
RISK IS A SUNK COST

10.
98%
of the industry
is complacent
RISK IS A SUNK COST

11.
1-3 Yrs 3-5 Yrs 5-10 Yrs
Level of UNCERTAINTY
NOW
complex chaotic
RISK IS A SUNK COST

12.
NOW 1-3 Yrs
complex
Uberization
AKA « shit will happen »
A new entrant will deliver
better added value to your own
customers by using new
commodity technologies
(mobile B2C).
5-10 Yrs3-5 Yrs
chaotic
RISK IS A SUNK COST

13.
NOW 1-3 Yrs
complex
Uberization
AKA « shit will happen »
A new entrant will deliver
better added value to your own
customers by using new
commodity technologies
(mobile B2C).
Amazonification
AKA « innovation is slow »
An new entrant from 5 years ago has build
up large-scale capabilities and you still have
to take it seriously, but truth to be told the
ecosystem has already rebooted itself while
you haven’t yet.
5-10 Yrs3-5 Yrs
chaotic
RISK IS A SUNK COST

14.
NOW 1-3 Yrs
complex
Uberization
AKA « shit will happen »
A new entrant will deliver
better added value to your own
customers by using new
commodity technologies
(mobile B2C).
Amazonification
AKA « innovation is slow »
An new entrant from 5 years ago has build
up large-scale capabilities and you still have
to take it seriously, but truth to be told the
ecosystem has already rebooted itself while
you haven’t yet.
5-10 Yrs3-5 Yrs
chaotic
Teslafication
AKA « marketing mix is stupid »
While you were competing on product
lines, a tangent technology/product is
now producing better added value for
your own customers.
RISK IS A SUNK COST

15.
NOW 1-3 Yrs
3-5 Yrs
chaotic
complex
Uberization
AKA « shit will happen »
A new entrant will deliver
better added value to your own
customers by using new
commodity technologies
(mobile B2C).
Amazonification
AKA « innovation is slow »
An new entrant from 5 years ago has build
up large-scale capabilities and you still have
to take it seriously, but truth to be told the
ecosystem has already rebooted itself while
you haven’t yet.
Wechatization
AKA « seems China did wake up»
As Westerners we still live in a world
where China is an emerging country
and the factory of the rest of the
world… that was 20 yrs ago.
Teslafication
AKA « marketing mix is stupid »
While you were competing on product
lines, a tangent technology/product is
now producing better added value for
your own customers.
5-10 Yrs
RISK IS A SUNK COST

16.
1-3 Yrs
3-5 Yrs
chaotic
complex
Uberization
AKA « shit will happen »
A new entrant will deliver
better added value to your own
customers by using new
commodity technologies
(mobile B2C).
Amazonification
AKA « innovation is slow »
An new entrant from 5 years ago has build
up large-scale capabilities and you still have
to take it seriously, but truth to be told the
ecosystem has already rebooted itself while
you haven’t yet.
Wechatization
AKA « seems China did wake up»
As Westerners we still live in a world
where China is an emerging country
and the factory of the rest of the
world… that was 20 yrs ago.
Teslafication
AKA « marketing mix is stupid »
While you were competing on product
lines, a tangent technology/product is
now producing better added value for
your own customers.
5-10 Yrs
NOW
RISK IS A SUNK COST

17.
RISK IS A SUNK COSTRISK IS A SUNK COST
IoT Market worth
$661.74Billion by 2021

18.
RISK IS A SUNK COST

19.
RISK The FUTURE is a sunk cost
RISK IS A SUNK COST

20.
RISK IS A SUNK COST
= We probably
won’t survive this…

21.
TRADING
RISKS
1. RISK IS A SUNK COST
3. CHEATING THE CASINO
2. LEVERAGING BLINDSPOTS

22.
LEVERAGING BLINDSPOTS
PROCESS-DRIVEN
FUTURE-DRIVEN
CUSTOMER-DRIVEN

23.
LEVERAGING BLINDSPOTS
PROCESS-DRIVEN
FUTURE-DRIVEN
CUSTOMER-DRIVEN

24.
LEVERAGING BLINDSPOTS
PROCESS-DRIVEN
FUTURE-DRIVEN
CUSTOMER-DRIVEN

25.
FUTURE-DRIVEN PROCESS-DRIVENCUSTOMER-DRIVEN
LEVERAGING BLINDSPOTS

26.
PROCESS-DRIVEN
LEVERAGING BLINDSPOTS

27.
LEVERAGING BLINDSPOTS
PROCESS-DRIVEN
FUTURE-DRIVEN
CUSTOMER-DRIVEN

28.
PROCESS-DRIVEN
YOUR CULTURAL
BLINDSPOT
LEVERAGING BLINDSPOTS

29.
PROCESS-DRIVEN
Startups
working on new
customers
paradigms.
LEVERAGING BLINDSPOTS
Startups
working on
future value
propositions .
SUNK COSTS

30.
LEVERAGING BLINDSPOTS

31.
Startups
working on
future value
propositions .
Peugeot will work
with Boston-based
nuTonomy on a project
involving self-driving
cars in Singapore.
LEVERAGING BLINDSPOTS

32.
LEVERAGING BLINDSPOTS
Your blindspot is your FOCUS

33.
LEVERAGING BLINDSPOTS
= Right,
we’re
« just »
going to
subcontract
risk…

34.
TRADING
RISKS
1. RISK IS A SUNK COST
3. CHEATING THE CASINO
2. LEVERAGING BLINDSPOTS

35.
CHEATING THE CASINO
TECH
MATURITY
NOW
MARKET
READINESS
2,5%15% 0%
RUPTURE
0.001%
Black Swans
1 Year
3 Years
10 Years
42
INCREMENTAL
80%
Industry

36.
PROCESS-
DRIVEN
TECH
MATURITY
NOW
MARKET
READINESS
2,5%15% 0%
1 Year
3 Years
10 Years
INCREMENTAL
80%
Industry
CHEATING THE CASINO

37.
PROCESS-
DRIVEN
TECH
MATURITY
NOW
MARKET
READINESS
2,5%15% 0%
1 Year
3 Years
10 Years
INCREMENTAL
80%
Industry
YOUR
CULTURAL
BLINDSPOT
CHEATING THE CASINO

38.
TECH
MATURITY
NOW
MARKET
READINESS
2,5%15% 0%
1 Year
3 Years
10 Years
42
17
13
PROCESS-
DRIVEN
48
INCREMENTAL
80%
Industry
120≃Projects
CHEATING THE CASINO

39.
CHEATING THE CASINO

40.
5
CHEATING THE CASINO

41.
5
100
CHEATING THE CASINO

42.
TRADING RISKS
Business ROI
Brand ROI
How more visible are you on the market, how do you build
better trust and customer intimacy…
Market ROI
How much better do you understand your current customers
or foresee new trends.
Alignment ROI
How well do you exchange best practices internally,how do
you get a better cross-team alignment, …
Culture ROI
How much agility and reactivity have been increased, how
many teams have a better understanding of your market, ...