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Trading Risks - Innovation Copilots

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My conference for MERCK Innovation Center on how startups and multinationals should recalibrate their relationships after years of fumbling around and why building no-bullshit synergies matter more than ever.

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Trading Risks - Innovation Copilots

  1. 1. TRADING RISKS How startups and multinationals should recalibrate their relationships after years of fumbling around and why building no-bullshit synergies matter more than ever.
  2. 2. PHILIPPE MÉDA @icopilots
  3. 3. TRADING RISKS 1. RISK IS A SUNK COST 2. LEVERAGING BLINDSPOTS 3. CHEATING THE CASINO
  4. 4. TRADING RISKS 1. RISK IS A SUNK COST 2. LEVERAGING BLINDSPOTS 3. CHEATING THE CASINO
  5. 5. I have known adventures, seen places you people will never see, I've been Offworld and back...frontiers! I've stood on the back deck of a blinker bound for the Plutition Camps with sweat in my eyes watching the stars fight on the shoulder of Orion. I've felt wind in my hair, riding test boats off the black galaxies and seen an attack fleet burn like a match and disappear. I've seen it...felt it! I've seen things you people wouldn't believe. Attack ships on fire off the shoulder of Orion. I watched C-beams glitter in the dark near the Tannhäuser Gate. All those moments will be lost in time, like tears in rain. Time to die. RISK IS A SUNK COST
  6. 6. Built to explore a specific risk ✔ Burn resources faster than normal ✔ Dies after for 2.8 years ✔ RISK IS A SUNK COST
  7. 7. Invention means the conception of a novelty. Instead innovation is defined by the introduction of the invention in the social environment. The market is a specific form of social organization. Joseph SCHUMPETER RISK IS A SUNK COST
  8. 8. How do we rebuild urban on-demand mobility without legacy platforms? RISK IS A SUNK COST
  9. 9. How do we rebuild urban on-demand mobility without legacy platforms? RISK IS A SUNK COST
  10. 10. 98% of the industry is complacent RISK IS A SUNK COST
  11. 11. 1-3 Yrs 3-5 Yrs 5-10 Yrs Level of UNCERTAINTY NOW complex chaotic RISK IS A SUNK COST
  12. 12. NOW 1-3 Yrs complex Uberization AKA « shit will happen » A new entrant will deliver better added value to your own customers by using new commodity technologies (mobile B2C). 5-10 Yrs3-5 Yrs chaotic RISK IS A SUNK COST
  13. 13. NOW 1-3 Yrs complex Uberization AKA « shit will happen » A new entrant will deliver better added value to your own customers by using new commodity technologies (mobile B2C). Amazonification AKA « innovation is slow » An new entrant from 5 years ago has build up large-scale capabilities and you still have to take it seriously, but truth to be told the ecosystem has already rebooted itself while you haven’t yet. 5-10 Yrs3-5 Yrs chaotic RISK IS A SUNK COST
  14. 14. NOW 1-3 Yrs complex Uberization AKA « shit will happen » A new entrant will deliver better added value to your own customers by using new commodity technologies (mobile B2C). Amazonification AKA « innovation is slow » An new entrant from 5 years ago has build up large-scale capabilities and you still have to take it seriously, but truth to be told the ecosystem has already rebooted itself while you haven’t yet. 5-10 Yrs3-5 Yrs chaotic Teslafication AKA « marketing mix is stupid » While you were competing on product lines, a tangent technology/product is now producing better added value for your own customers. RISK IS A SUNK COST
  15. 15. NOW 1-3 Yrs 3-5 Yrs chaotic complex Uberization AKA « shit will happen » A new entrant will deliver better added value to your own customers by using new commodity technologies (mobile B2C). Amazonification AKA « innovation is slow » An new entrant from 5 years ago has build up large-scale capabilities and you still have to take it seriously, but truth to be told the ecosystem has already rebooted itself while you haven’t yet. Wechatization AKA « seems China did wake up» As Westerners we still live in a world where China is an emerging country and the factory of the rest of the world… that was 20 yrs ago. Teslafication AKA « marketing mix is stupid » While you were competing on product lines, a tangent technology/product is now producing better added value for your own customers. 5-10 Yrs RISK IS A SUNK COST
  16. 16. 1-3 Yrs 3-5 Yrs chaotic complex Uberization AKA « shit will happen » A new entrant will deliver better added value to your own customers by using new commodity technologies (mobile B2C). Amazonification AKA « innovation is slow » An new entrant from 5 years ago has build up large-scale capabilities and you still have to take it seriously, but truth to be told the ecosystem has already rebooted itself while you haven’t yet. Wechatization AKA « seems China did wake up» As Westerners we still live in a world where China is an emerging country and the factory of the rest of the world… that was 20 yrs ago. Teslafication AKA « marketing mix is stupid » While you were competing on product lines, a tangent technology/product is now producing better added value for your own customers. 5-10 Yrs NOW RISK IS A SUNK COST
  17. 17. RISK IS A SUNK COSTRISK IS A SUNK COST IoT Market worth $661.74Billion by 2021
  18. 18. RISK IS A SUNK COST
  19. 19. RISK The FUTURE is a sunk cost RISK IS A SUNK COST
  20. 20. RISK IS A SUNK COST = We probably won’t survive this…
  21. 21. TRADING RISKS 1. RISK IS A SUNK COST 3. CHEATING THE CASINO 2. LEVERAGING BLINDSPOTS
  22. 22. LEVERAGING BLINDSPOTS PROCESS-DRIVEN FUTURE-DRIVEN CUSTOMER-DRIVEN
  23. 23. LEVERAGING BLINDSPOTS PROCESS-DRIVEN FUTURE-DRIVEN CUSTOMER-DRIVEN
  24. 24. LEVERAGING BLINDSPOTS PROCESS-DRIVEN FUTURE-DRIVEN CUSTOMER-DRIVEN
  25. 25. FUTURE-DRIVEN PROCESS-DRIVENCUSTOMER-DRIVEN LEVERAGING BLINDSPOTS
  26. 26. PROCESS-DRIVEN LEVERAGING BLINDSPOTS
  27. 27. LEVERAGING BLINDSPOTS PROCESS-DRIVEN FUTURE-DRIVEN CUSTOMER-DRIVEN
  28. 28. PROCESS-DRIVEN YOUR CULTURAL BLINDSPOT LEVERAGING BLINDSPOTS
  29. 29. PROCESS-DRIVEN Startups working on new customers paradigms. LEVERAGING BLINDSPOTS Startups working on future value propositions . SUNK COSTS
  30. 30. LEVERAGING BLINDSPOTS
  31. 31. Startups working on future value propositions . Peugeot will work with Boston-based nuTonomy on a project involving self-driving cars in Singapore. LEVERAGING BLINDSPOTS
  32. 32. LEVERAGING BLINDSPOTS Your blindspot is your FOCUS
  33. 33. LEVERAGING BLINDSPOTS = Right, we’re « just » going to subcontract risk…
  34. 34. TRADING RISKS 1. RISK IS A SUNK COST 3. CHEATING THE CASINO 2. LEVERAGING BLINDSPOTS
  35. 35. CHEATING THE CASINO TECH MATURITY NOW MARKET READINESS 2,5%15% 0% RUPTURE 0.001% Black Swans 1 Year 3 Years 10 Years 42 INCREMENTAL 80% Industry
  36. 36. PROCESS- DRIVEN TECH MATURITY NOW MARKET READINESS 2,5%15% 0% 1 Year 3 Years 10 Years INCREMENTAL 80% Industry CHEATING THE CASINO
  37. 37. PROCESS- DRIVEN TECH MATURITY NOW MARKET READINESS 2,5%15% 0% 1 Year 3 Years 10 Years INCREMENTAL 80% Industry YOUR CULTURAL BLINDSPOT CHEATING THE CASINO
  38. 38. TECH MATURITY NOW MARKET READINESS 2,5%15% 0% 1 Year 3 Years 10 Years 42 17 13 PROCESS- DRIVEN 48 INCREMENTAL 80% Industry 120≃Projects CHEATING THE CASINO
  39. 39. CHEATING THE CASINO
  40. 40. 5 CHEATING THE CASINO
  41. 41. 5 100 CHEATING THE CASINO
  42. 42. TRADING RISKS Business ROI Brand ROI How more visible are you on the market, how do you build better trust and customer intimacy… Market ROI How much better do you understand your current customers or foresee new trends. Alignment ROI How well do you exchange best practices internally,how do you get a better cross-team alignment, … Culture ROI How much agility and reactivity have been increased, how many teams have a better understanding of your market, ...

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