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Pas de risques ? Pas de startup !

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Keynote du 8 Avril 2019 à Toulouse, pour l’incubateur Nubbo et le réseau régional de l’innovation, par Philippe Méda.

Les injonctions faites aux startups de prendre des risques et d’aller rapidement vers des clients potentiels sont nombreuses. Pourtant peu d'entre elles comprennent et maîtrisent la nature des risques à prendre.

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Pas de risques ? Pas de startup !

  1. 1. © innovation copilots 2019 PAS DE RISQUES? PAS DE STARTUPS! Les injonctions faites aux startups de prendre des risques et d’aller rapidement vers des clients potentiels sont nombreuses. Pourtant peu d'entre elles comprennent et maîtrisent la nature des risques à prendre. © innovation copilots 2019 @icopilots Philippe MÉDA
  2. 2. © innovation copilots 2019 STATISTIQUEMENT, UNE STARTUP LANCÉE AUJOURD’HUI EN FRANCE AURA ÉCHOUÉ AVANT SEPTEMBRE 2021...
  3. 3. © innovation copilots 2019 CÔTÉ GRANDS GROUPES.... (Août 2014)
  4. 4. © innovation copilots 2019 LES ERREURS HABITUELLES.... © innovation copilots 2019
  5. 5. © innovation copilots 2019 MAIS POURQUOI ? © innovation copilots 2019 (Chat de Schrödinger)
  6. 6. © innovation copilots 2019 LES 10 PROCHAINES ANNÉES SONT : ( TOUT N’EST PAS MODÉLISABLE ON NE GÈRE PAS LES DÉFICITS CULTURELS ON NE PENSE PAS SYSTÈME ON NE COMPRENDS TOUJOURS PAS LE NUMÉRIQUE (SÉRIEUSEMENT) LES GRANDS GROUPES SE SURESTIMENT LES GRANDS GROUPES AIMENT LE STATUS QUO LES MARCHÉS NE VEULENT PAS CHANGER L’INNOVATION SE VOIT A POSTERIORI ON N’ASSUME PAS LE “SCHLEP” ON NE VOIT QUE LE PRODUIT ON NE VOIT QUE LA TECHNOLOGIE LES RISQUES
  7. 7. © innovation copilots 2019 ON NE VOIT QUE LA TECHNOLOGIE CES Las Vegas o/ © innovation copilots 2019
  8. 8. © innovation copilots 2019 Quel est le marché de « la voiture » ? ON NE VOIT QUE LE PRODUIT Quel est le marché de « la photo » ?
  9. 9. © innovation copilots 2019 « Nous sommes plus en concurrence (et perdons) avec Fortnite qu’avec HBO. » (OU PAS) Media ? Entertainment !
  10. 10. © innovation copilots 2019 ON N’ASSUME PAS LE “SCHLEP” « Un parcours pénible et déplaisant, qui ne présente aucun intérêt en soi. » © innovation copilots 2019
  11. 11. © innovation copilots 2019 Promesse technologique Critique médiatique Assimilation économique 😅🤩 😱 🤖 Pivot sémantique L’INNOVATION SE VOIT A POSTERIORI
  12. 12. © innovation copilots 2019 First they ignore you... Then they laugh at you... Then they fight you... Then you win. LES MARCHÉS NE VEULENT PAS CHANGER
  13. 13. © innovation copilots 2019 Effet Réseau Numérisation Désintermédiation Metcalfe (géométrique) Reed (loi exponentielle)2N-N-1 La valeur des grands réseaux (et des réseaux sociaux en particulier) augmente de façon exponentielle avec le nombre de noeuds du réseau (N). « DATA » ON NE COMPRENDS TOUJOURS PAS LE NUMÉRIQUE (SÉRIEUSEMENT)
  14. 14. © innovation copilots 2019 ON NE PENSE PAS SYSTÈME
  15. 15. © innovation copilots 2019 Chine France Pays-Bas US ON NE GÈRE PAS LES DÉFICITS CULTURELS Aversion au risque Orientation long-terme Indulgence personnelle MasculinitéIndividualismeDistance au pouvoir
  16. 16. © innovation copilots 2019 TOUT N’EST PAS MODÉLISABLE Les prévisions de l’OPEC sur le véhicule électrique ont augmenté de près de 500% entre 2015 et 2016.
  17. 17. © innovation copilots 2019© innovation copilots 2019 LES 10 PROCHAINES ANNÉES SONT : ( 10 Ans de volatilité, le retour à la « normale »...
  18. 18. © innovation copilots 2019 icopilots.com Les succès passés créent une aversion à la nouveauté difficile à surmonter. Au plus le succès passé a été important, au moins on aura envie de changer la recette. Clayton CHRISTENSEN, 1996 Le modèle d’abonnement pour la musique en ligne est une erreur financière. Steve JOBS, 2003 LES GRANDS GROUPES AIMENT LE STATUS QUO
  19. 19. © innovation copilots 2019 On y travaille d’arrache-pied chez Orange et nos partenaires technologiques. Faire une banque mobile avec le niveau d’exigence qui est le notre, non pas un petit produit de startup Allemande confidentielle, mais un produit qui va entrer dans la vie quotidienne des Français, représente un gros travail de développement. Orange Banque est le plus important projet informatique en France en 2017. Stéphane RICHARD LES GRANDS GROUPES SE SURESTIMENT © innovation copilots 2019
  20. 20. © innovation copilots 2019 “Nos hôtes ne veulent pas le ressenti et l’odeur d’un Airbnb, ils attendent un niveau de service différent, plus sophistiqué, précis et expert.” Christopher Norton, Four Seasons Resorts, 2015 “Nous n’avons pas vu d’effet direct [d’Airbnb] dans aucun de nos hôtels… Nous ne ressentons pas d’impact sur nos résultats ou même de signal d’arrivée sur nos radars.” Richard Jones, Hospitality Ventures Management Group, 2014. COMBO !!
  21. 21. © innovation copilots 2019 LES RISQUES... #OHWAIT © innovation copilots 2019
  22. 22. © innovation copilots 2019 LES 10 PROCHAINES ANNÉES SONT : ( TOUT N’EST PAS MODÉLISABLE ON NE GÈRE PAS LES DÉFICITS CULTURELS ON NE PENSE PAS SYSTÈME ON NE COMPRENDS TOUJOURS PAS LE NUMÉRIQUE (SÉRIEUSEMENT) LES GRANDS GROUPES SE SURESTIMENT LES GRANDS GROUPES AIMENT LE STATUS QUO LES MARCHÉS NE VEULENT PAS CHANGER L’INNOVATION SE VOIT A POSTERIORI ON N’ASSUME PAS LE “SCHLEP” ON NE VOIT QUE LE PRODUIT ON NE VOIT QUE LA TECHNOLOGIE VOTRE VALORISATION € € € € € € € € €€ € A
  23. 23. © innovation copilots 2019© innovation copilots 2019 DES CHATS DE SCHRÖDINGER
  24. 24. © innovation copilots 2019 LES 10 PROCHAINES ANNÉES SONT : ( TOUT N’EST PAS MODÉLISABLE ON NE GÈRE PAS LES DÉFICITS CULTURELS ON NE PENSE PAS SYSTÈME ON NE COMPRENDS TOUJOURS PAS LE NUMÉRIQUE (SÉRIEUSEMENT) LES GRANDS GROUPES SE SURESTIMENT LES GRANDS GROUPES AIMENT LE STATUS QUO LES MARCHÉS NE VEULENT PAS CHANGER L’INNOVATION SE VOIT A POSTERIORI ON N’ASSUME PAS LE “SCHLEP” ON NE VOIT QUE LE PRODUIT ON NE VOIT QUE LA TECHNOLOGIE 66 Incubateurs € € € € € € € € €€ € A B « HERDING SCHRÖDINGER’S CATS »
  25. 25. © innovation copilots 2019 « HERDING SCHRÖDINGER’S CATS »
  26. 26. © innovation copilots 2019 DES CHATS DE SCHRÖDINGER € € € € € € € € €€ €
  27. 27. © innovation copilots 2019 DES CHATS DE SCHRÖDINGER
  28. 28. © innovation copilots 2019 Innovation starts when smart stops working. © innovation copilots 2019 @icopilots Philippe MÉDA

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