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Phuong thailand - feb 16-17,2012

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Phuong thailand - feb 16-17,2012

  1. 1. THE 5TH THAI-MALAYSIAN INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON SOUTHEAST ASIAN STUDIES RE-MAKING HISTORICAL MEMORY IN SOUTHEAST ASIA MAHIDOL UNIVERSITY FEBRUARY 16 – 17, 2012
  2. 2. AN ENCOUNTER WITH INVENTED MEMORY IN MAKING OF ECONOMIC POLICYTHE CASE OF COFFEE TRADING IN CENTRAL HIGHLANDS OF VIETNAM NGUYEN HOANG MY PHUONG - VIETNAM
  3. 3. WARM UP!LET’S SUGGEST SOME CHARACTERISTICSABOUT OUR CURRENT SOCIETY
  4. 4. CHARACTERISTICSOF OUR CURRENT SOCIETY#1 NETWORKS
  5. 5. CHARACTERISTICSOF OUR CURRENT SOCIETY#2 LIQUIDS
  6. 6. CHARACTERISTICSOF OUR CURRENT SOCIETY#3 RISKS
  7. 7. CHARACTERISTICSOF OUR CURRENT SOCIETY#1 DECENTRED & FLAT#2 NOT KEEP ANY SHAPE FOR LONG#3 UNFORESEEN RISKS IN GLOBAL DIMENSION
  8. 8. LET’S IMAGINE COFFEE
  9. 9. WHY NEED TO FIND OUT THE SUSTAINABLESOLUTION FOR VIETNAM COFFEE INDUSTRY?AN IMPORTANT PART OF VIETNAM ECONOMY  USD 2.7 BILLIONS IN 2011 (3% OF THE TOTAL EXPORT EARNINGS)  ~ 300,000 HOUSEHOLDS, > 600,000 WORKERSCOFFEE PRODUCERS & GOVERMENT
  10. 10. GEOGRAPHICDISTRIBUTION OFCOFFEE PRODUCTION•CENTRAL HIGHLANDSPROVINCES (ROBUSTA)•SOUTHEAST PROVINCES(ROBUSTA)•NORTHERN PROVINCES(ARABICA)
  11. 11. ROBUSTA PRODUCTION BETWEEN THE FIVE-YEAR AVERAGE OVER THE PERIOD OF 1981/86 AND 2005/10 SOURCE: ICO
  12. 12. OVERVIEW OF RESEARCH FINDINDS IN MY MA THESIS CREDIT PROVISION & PRICE RISK MANAGEMENT
  13. 13. ECONOMY FROM THE HISTORICAL STANDPOINT IN DANG PHONG’S APPROACH NEW INSOLVED INFORMATION CENTRALLY-PLANNED ECONOMY MARKET-ORIENTED ECONOMYECONOMIC MINDSET ECONOMIC TRANSFORMATION IN VIETNAM 1979 - 1986
  14. 14. ECONOMY FROM THE HISTORICAL STANDPOINT IN DANG PHONG’S APPROACH• NO CHRONOLOGY• FINDING OUT FUNDAMENTAL CAUSES• MULTI-DISCIPLINES (ECONOMICS, HISTORY, ETC.)• VARIOUS SOURCES (INTERVIEWS, NEWSPAPERS, GOVERMENTAL DOCUMENTS, ETC.)
  15. 15. RE-MAKING MEMORY OF COFFEE TRADING IN CENTRAL HIGHLANDS OF VIETNAM FINANCIAL INSTRUMENTS INVENTED TRADITION NEW ARRIVAL CUSTOMCOFFEE TRADING IN THE CONTEXT OF OUR CURRENT SOCIETY NETWORKS, LIQUIDS, RISKS
  16. 16. PHYSICAL COFFEE FLOWSVS FUTURES CONTRACT FLOWS EXPORTER6 CONTAINERS x 21 TONS = 126 TONS FUTUTES FUTUTES FUTUTES CONTRACT CONTRACT CONTRACT 1 LOT = 10 TONS 1 LOT = 10 TONS 1 LOT = 10 TONS FARMER FARMER FARMER 2 TONS/HA 2 TONS/HA 2 TONS/HA FUTUTES CONTRACT 1 LOT = 10 TONS
  17. 17. WHAT IS YOUR DECISION?AN OWNER OF DAKLAK-BASED A VIETNAMESE CEO OF A 100 %PRIVATE ENTERPRISE FOREIGN COMPANY IN DAKLAK‘SO MANY COMPANIES AND ‘LIFFE OR ICE IS THE BIGGESTPEOPLE IN DAKLAK LOST MARKETS ON THE WORLD. YOUHUNDREDS OF BILLIONS VND THEREFORE HAVE A WIDEBECAUSE OF USING FUTURES RANGE OF CHOICES ONCECONTRACT IN LIFFE OR ICE. IT IS ENTERING INTO IT’BAD! I NEVER USE IT’ * LIFFE OR ICE: THE TWO MAIN FUTURES EXCHANGES OF TRADING COFFEE
  18. 18. WHAT IS THEDECISION?FUTHER INVESTIGATION NEEDED…
  19. 19. Q&A THANK YOUNGUYEN HOANG MY PHUONG MENFUONG@GMAIL.COM

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