More Related Content

Similar to Pierre bernier iufro2014(20)


More from melnhe(20)


Pierre bernier iufro2014

  1. Uncertainty in forest management planning: why it will not go away and what should we do about it Pierre Bernier Natural Resources Canada / Canadian Forest Service IUFRO World Congress 2014
  2. 2 Presentation plan: •The climate is changing •Society is changing •We have to adapt
  3. 3 The different scales of forest management 1- Operational / tactical (short-term): Harvest scheduling, stand tending, sylviculture, access maintenance and planning Uncertainties related to: • Wood quantity and quality, distribution on the landscape • Short-term to medium-term market conditions
  4. 4 3- Strategic, regional scale (medium to long-term): Sustainability targets, investment decisions, etc… Uncertainties related to: • Tree growth and disturbance regimes • Long-term market conditions • Changing regulations / legislations / standards The different scales of forest management Trees take decades to grow but the past is no longer a good analog of the future
  5. 5 Source: IPCC IPCC WG1 AR5, 2013 : « …since the 1950s, many of the observed changes are unprecedented over decades to millennia... » Climate change is a large cause of current and future uncertainty
  6. 6 Impacts on Canada’s forest sector are already detectable Frest fires Bark beetle attack on Ponderosa pine Droughts Spruce budworm Mountain Pine beetle Aspen dieback Winter harvesting issues Increased growth?? Wind and ice storms Smoke emissions
  7. 7 Impacts are not limited to Canada’s forests Fires in US National Forests USDA For Serv. 2013
  8. 8 Impacts are not limited to Canada’s forests Wind storms in EU forests EFI News July 2013
  9. 9 Time=0 Climate change and global changes impose new uncertainties in the projection of future states of forest ecosystems. Time=30, 50, 100 years
  10. 10 •Societies’ expectations are changing with ensuing rapid changes in regulations and legislations •Forest products are diversifying but with shorter life cycle, making it difficult to forecast the future use of trees •The market place is globalizing making it difficult to predict the future value of trees Forestry and Society
  11. 11 Sustainable management: maintenance of ecosystem processes Forest management: an evolving concept Changes in public perception and expectations Improvements in tracking capacity Improvements in understanding of ecosystem processes Sustained yield: maintenance of timber flow
  12. 12 Many uncertainties are linked to chaotic systems, or to elements whose drivers are not within the control of the forest sector
  13. 13 These uncertainties will not go away…
  14. 14 The way forward… 1- Base decisions on multiple futures: Use multiple projection tools Use multiple scenarios Use probabilistic approaches For researchers: Develop risk analysis for forest strategic planning Develop optimisation tools that incorporate stochasticity
  15. 15 2- Implement adaptive management approaches: Predict Verify Adjust Continuous development of knowledge Continuous monitoring of forest status Periodic comparison of predictions versus reality Periodic re- alignment of management goals and tools Learn Try Change The way forward… For researchers: •Development of monitoring •Study of trends / forecasts •Evaluation of vulnerabilities
  16. 16 3- Mainstream changes… Changes in legislative / regulatory frameworks Incorporation of risk and failure Support for adaptation to an uncertain world The way forward… For researchers: Evaluation of barriers to change Enrichment of dialogues with forest managers/planners Tailoring of research to address pressing planning needs
  17. 17

Editor's Notes

  1. Future states of forest ecosystems: états futurs des écosystèmes forestiers