Uncertainty in forest management planning:
why it will not go away and what should we
do about it
Pierre Bernier
Natural Resources Canada / Canadian Forest Service
IUFRO World Congress 2014

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Presentation plan:
•The climate is changing
•Society is changing
•We have to adapt

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The different scales of forest management
1- Operational / tactical (short-term): Harvest scheduling, stand tending,
sylviculture, access maintenance and planning
Uncertainties related to:
• Wood quantity and quality, distribution on the landscape
• Short-term to medium-term market conditions

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3- Strategic, regional scale (medium to long-term): Sustainability targets, investment
decisions, etc…
Uncertainties related to:
• Tree growth and disturbance regimes
• Long-term market conditions
• Changing regulations / legislations / standards
The different scales of forest management
Trees take decades to
grow but the past is
no longer a good
analog of the future

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Source: IPCC
IPCC WG1 AR5, 2013 :
« …since the 1950s, many
of the observed
changes are
unprecedented over
decades to millennia... »
Climate change is a large
cause of current and future
uncertainty

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Impacts on Canada’s forest sector
are already detectable
Frest fires
Bark beetle
attack on
Ponderosa pine
Droughts
Spruce
budworm
Mountain Pine
beetle
Aspen dieback Winter
harvesting
issues
Increased growth??
Wind and ice
storms
Smoke emissions

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Impacts are not limited to Canada’s forests
Fires in US National Forests
USDA For Serv. 2013

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Impacts are not limited to Canada’s forests
Wind storms in EU forests
EFI News July 2013

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Time=0
Climate change and global
changes impose new
uncertainties in the projection of
future states of forest
ecosystems.
Time=30, 50, 100 years

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•Societies’ expectations are changing with ensuing rapid changes in
regulations and legislations
•Forest products are diversifying but with shorter life cycle,
making it difficult to forecast the future use of trees
•The market place is globalizing making it difficult to predict the
future value of trees
Forestry and Society

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Sustainable management:
maintenance of ecosystem
processes
Forest management: an evolving
concept
Changes in public
perception and expectations
Improvements in tracking
capacity
Improvements in understanding
of ecosystem processes
Sustained yield:
maintenance of
timber flow

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Many uncertainties are linked
to chaotic systems, or to
elements whose drivers are
not within the control of
the forest sector

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These uncertainties will not go
away…

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The way forward…
1- Base decisions on multiple futures:
Use multiple projection tools
Use multiple scenarios
Use probabilistic approaches
For researchers:
Develop risk analysis for forest strategic planning
Develop optimisation tools that incorporate stochasticity

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2- Implement adaptive management approaches:
Predict
Verify
Adjust
Continuous
development of
knowledge
Continuous
monitoring of
forest status
Periodic comparison
of predictions versus
reality
Periodic re-
alignment of
management
goals and tools
Learn
Try
Change
The way forward…
For researchers:
•Development of monitoring
•Study of trends / forecasts
•Evaluation of vulnerabilities

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3- Mainstream changes…
Changes in legislative / regulatory frameworks
Incorporation of risk and failure
Support for adaptation to an uncertain world
The way forward…
For researchers:
Evaluation of barriers to change
Enrichment of dialogues with forest managers/planners
Tailoring of research to address pressing planning needs

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