Learning from InterSolar 2010,Mumbai.


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Learning from InterSolar 2010,Mumbai.

  1. 1. Learning's from Inter Solar 2010,Mumbai Mehul Raval, Indian Institute of Technology-Bombay, India. [email_address]
  2. 2. Opening Session <ul><li>Prof Juzer Vasi(IITB) gave a speech on the Solar program in India. </li></ul><ul><li>100K manpower generation by 2022 with 25K engineers & students. Prof Bansal(MNRE) designs courses at Master level. </li></ul><ul><li>In Education & Training, Franchising and Certification to be taken up. </li></ul><ul><li>Mr V.S. Verma (CERC) gave a speech on the energy landscape in India. </li></ul><ul><li>167KMW installed capacity in India with 90KMW coal-based.450million tones coal/annum and 46 million tones deficit.16.5KMW through RE. </li></ul><ul><li>Increase in Super Critical Firing will increase η by 2-3% for coal-based systems. </li></ul><ul><li>Solar Thermal & PV can cater the peak demands and so storage in critical. </li></ul><ul><li>RPO and REC for 1 MW introduced. </li></ul><ul><li>Subsidies from govt help but not for long term. </li></ul><ul><li>Scientific price distribution among the components of PV system and ways to reduce the prices and indigenize them is Important. </li></ul><ul><li>Prediction of Solar/Wind energy based on weather forecasting. In conventional system these are based on 15mins intervals. Power generation should be within 70% of the prediction. </li></ul><ul><li>Reliability to also to be incorporated e.g. in an emergency, instrumentation & control or disconnecting from grid is imp. </li></ul>
  3. 3. <ul><li>Mr Deepak Gupta (Secretary, MNRE) gave a speech on RE landscape in India. 2002- 2% growth rate of RE, last 2 years- 27%. </li></ul><ul><li>Cost Reduction and Grid Parity are the main aim of JNNSM. </li></ul><ul><li>184MW selected of which most are of Solar PV. </li></ul><ul><li>8 projects for 15MW installed in last year of which 4.8MW in Jodhpur and 4 & 3MW in Karnataka. </li></ul><ul><li>400 million homes no light, Program for 20 million. 30 pilot projects for mini-grids in collaboration with Norway government. </li></ul><ul><li>Diesel in Industry and Telecom towers to be replaced with Solar PV. </li></ul><ul><li>Decrease of billion liters of diesel consumption in last 5 years. </li></ul><ul><li>Next yr- 300MW Solar PV with only domestic cells and modules. </li></ul><ul><li>IIT, Jodhpur to become a center for Solar Thermal and IIT Kanpur keen on NCPRE like interests. </li></ul><ul><li>Solar Insolation monitoring to be done by CVAD. </li></ul>
  4. 4. Panel Discussion- What is the real potential of PV in India?-Challenges, Opportunities. <ul><li>Panelists: Debhasish Mazumdar(CMD, IREDA), H Bajaj(CEA, Former Chairman NTPC), Indrapreet Wadhwa(CEO,Azure Power), Mohan Bhan(Vice President,Moser Baer), Petra Bahns (CFO,Ecolutions) & Rabi Sathpathy(President,Reliance Solar). </li></ul><ul><li>Current Installation < 50MWp and to be 400 times by 2022. </li></ul><ul><li>Germany 1/10 th of size and ½ population will have 3 times the growth i.e. around 6GW/year and current installation around 8GW. </li></ul><ul><li>Vast Thorium resources and good growth rate for NE. 2.75 Rs/unit from Kalpakkam plant. </li></ul><ul><li>Affordability is imp- 400 million people no light. </li></ul><ul><li>Henry Ford had a margin of $3 initially and so cost is important. </li></ul><ul><li>500MW is the manufacturing capacity and the cost decreases as capacity increases. </li></ul><ul><li>Illusion of 20GW: 1) 30-40 billion $ investment needed-Slow and not prepared. 2) Installed capacity of only 40-500MW. 3) Affordable cost compared to living stds needed. </li></ul>
  5. 5. <ul><li>Need for Solar Autonomy- 13 clearances for plant , 2 from Pollution Board. Lot of Paper work. </li></ul><ul><li>Swift Response for implementation of policies with ability to address the issues coming along. </li></ul><ul><li>Incentives for early completion of projects like penalty for delays. </li></ul><ul><li>70% of modules exported from India. </li></ul><ul><li>Coal-power: 2.5 to 3.5 Rs/unit and 4-5 Rs in 5-10 years. </li></ul><ul><li>Finance in India @ 12% rates compared to 6-8% in Europe. </li></ul><ul><li>5 types of Risks in PV- Project Risk, Finance,etc. </li></ul>
  6. 6. On-Grid PV Market in India <ul><li>Mr Popali (Director, IREDA)- 17 states announced tarriffs and 7 states announced RPOs. Starts from 11Rs/unit. </li></ul><ul><li>11-18 Rs /unit rate for Solar PV. </li></ul><ul><li>RoofTop 67 projects: 77.8MW + 22 2MW.(14-18 Rs/unit). </li></ul><ul><li>9-16Cr/MW Capital Cost, IMD-Solar radiation monitoring. </li></ul>Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase3 On-Grid 1K-2KMW 4K-10KMW 20KMW Off-Grid 200M 1KMW 2KMW Manufacturing 4K-5KMW Lighting 20 million RPO .25% 3%
  7. 7. <ul><li>Phase 1- 500MW(5MW plants,100MW smaller plants), 500MW CSP(5-100MW). </li></ul><ul><li>State RPO will affect NSM. </li></ul><ul><li>Price and Quantity need to be fixed. </li></ul><ul><li>China & Taiwan account for 50% of PV cell production and mostly exported. </li></ul><ul><li>40% houses in India have no light, schools w/o electricity- 8.2 lakhs, villages- 95K. </li></ul><ul><li>17GW RE in India, 159GW installed in 09-10 and 11% from RE.CAGR of 33%. </li></ul><ul><li>Gujarat- 961MW of projects allocated, Rajasthan- 540MW approved. </li></ul><ul><li>PV capacity of 800MWp, 66% exported and 64% to Germany. </li></ul><ul><li>Module 4.5GW and Cells- 2GW target of JNNSM. </li></ul><ul><li>Indian Power deficit of 10-12%(10-12GW). </li></ul>
  8. 8. Mini Grid/Micro Financing in India <ul><li>Mayank Sekharia(Co-Founder,Green Light Planet) - 1.6 billion no elec in world and market of $5 billion/ yr and increasing. </li></ul><ul><li>2k-5k & 5k -1K income group i.e. below taluka level imp for the PV based products. </li></ul><ul><li>Affordability + Accessibility + Liquidity </li></ul><ul><li>↓ ↓ ↓ </li></ul><ul><li>Low Price Awareness Purchase v/s Rental </li></ul><ul><li>Long Lasting Proximity Full Payment + EMI </li></ul><ul><li>High Utility Permanence </li></ul><ul><li>Being local for Maintenance imp. </li></ul><ul><li>Bad exp with lantern will make 90% to not buy a new one. </li></ul><ul><li>Michelsen(AEP,Auroville) - Cost of Installation: 3K-10K$/family, Elec cost- 0.7-1$/unit, storage cost: 60-75%. </li></ul><ul><li>Hybrid System: 0.3-0.4$/unit, 60-80% generation by diesel genset. </li></ul><ul><li>High η LEDs @ 100lm/W. </li></ul><ul><li>Lead batteries good on large scale but problems on smaller scales. </li></ul><ul><li>Lead/Ni/Lithium based have weight, energy & density advantages. </li></ul>
  9. 9. <ul><li>LiFePo- 200 charge/discharge cycles most promising. </li></ul><ul><li>LiMg/Co explosion chances during overcharging. </li></ul><ul><li>Wh/kg:Li-Co highest and Li-Po good enough, Lead acid-lowest. </li></ul><ul><li>For portable, lithium huge wt advantage. </li></ul><ul><li>Flat charging curve allows passive charging control for LiFePo4. </li></ul><ul><li>Christian Brillinger(MD, Phocos India Solar) - Micro Finance Service for Low Income Clients. 120 Million clients for MF in India. SHG/Grameen Model- Joint Liability. </li></ul><ul><li>India from 27million Rs to 250 million Rs MF, but interest rates very high. </li></ul><ul><li>15% rates not viable, penalties should be charged – Muhammad Yunus: Creating a world w/o poverty-Social Business & Future of Capitalism. </li></ul><ul><li>Arun Aravamudan(Sr. Technical Manager,SELCO) - 120K households installed with 90% financed. REEP partner for exploring financing models. </li></ul><ul><li>Matching payment to cash flow imp. </li></ul><ul><li>Migrants are high risk borrowers & low chances. </li></ul><ul><li>Margin Money needed is 10-20%. </li></ul><ul><li>For remote areas, the transaction costs increase for bank and Selco. </li></ul><ul><li>Solar portion can be financed and working capital needs to be addressed. SHG and JLG-who will spend? </li></ul>
  10. 10. <ul><li>Collection on daily basis viable and less stressful for low income groups. Eg Malleshram market area for lighting solutions. </li></ul><ul><li>Finance Philosophy- Pool of soft money. </li></ul><ul><li>For Migrants- Deposit given by Selco. </li></ul><ul><li>Margin Money deposit given by Selco. Same for Enterprenuers and Awareness funds. </li></ul><ul><li>JNNSM, unrealistic costs of small systems. Fixed systems, no innovation and mandatory 20% margin money. </li></ul>
  11. 11. c-Si-Innovative Prospects <ul><li>George Hanna(Head of Sales India, Bosch Solar) -c-Si and µ-morph based technology. </li></ul><ul><li>Top 10 PV Markets: Italy, China, Spain, South Korea, Japan, US, France, Germany. </li></ul><ul><li>Highest Irradiation Level- India, SA, China. </li></ul><ul><li>460GW of installed PV by 2030. </li></ul><ul><li>Challenges in India-High Irradiation, High Temp, Long Coastline: Humidity & Salty. </li></ul><ul><li>Price Sensitive Market but performance warranty needed. </li></ul><ul><li>Which technology suitable for specific application? How to achieve quality @ reasonable rates? </li></ul><ul><li>Simulation Model:1) Variation of Intensity, 2) Temp-dependent efficiency, 3) Spec Sensitivity of modules, 4) Staebler-Wronski Effect for thin films based PV. </li></ul><ul><li>2% drop in η for c-Si module from Stuttgart to Ahmadabad. Almost same for µ-morph. </li></ul><ul><li>10% more power generation from µ-morph tech in India from Germany and so more revenue! </li></ul><ul><li>Ref Projects- Jaipur,Bangalore,Coimbatore.40KWp each with c-Si,CIGS,a-Si and µ-morph 10KWp each. </li></ul>
  12. 12. <ul><li>For MW range projects: c-Si BOS & TF BOS: 40-42% & 40%.c-Si modules costlier by 40%.Overall TF is cheaper by 7-8% than c-Si. </li></ul><ul><li>For kW range projects: BOS of c-Si is 45% and for TF is 31%. TF is less expensive by 3-4%. </li></ul><ul><li>BOS costs need to decrease. </li></ul><ul><li>For no restrictions on area, TF has better yield and lower cost. F or area restricted c-Si better. </li></ul><ul><li>Arun Ramakrishnan (Manager Market & Technology Research,CentroTherm) -EU 70% Installation, 20% production , Asia 12% and 75%.Growth Rate 67% in 2010.In Nov 08, the cost of production in EU was 3Euros/Wp and less then 3 Euros in China. In Oct 10 it was 1.7 and 1.3 Euros respectively. </li></ul><ul><li>Integration of poly-Si production and production line will result in a benefit of 4%. Single & Integrated: 0.9 & 0.86 Euros/Wp. PolySi- capacity to be more than 2.5K Tones. </li></ul><ul><li>Si utilization around 5.5 gms/Wp and cost to be 0.63 Euros/W by 2013. </li></ul><ul><li>New metallization techniques to target 19.5% by 2013 and cost of 0.7 Euros/Wp. </li></ul><ul><li>12% Rates and no cheap electricity issues lead to low Poly Si production in India. </li></ul><ul><li>Gaetan Borgers (Asia Vice President,Dow Corning) -Module and material cost is 63% and 16% labor. Choice of material reduces other costs. </li></ul><ul><li>Good Material Supplier- Committed to Solar, Offers reliable supply, Proven Innovation(R&D at industrial level). </li></ul>
  13. 13. <ul><li>PV -6100 Encapsulant Series Silicone vs EVA- 2% Improvement. Silicone absorbs more light of shorter wavelength. </li></ul><ul><li>BP Solar 95% of Original PR in 2008 after 24 years with product similar to Silicone. </li></ul>
  14. 14. Thin Film PV- Innovative Prospects <ul><li>Nirav Vora(Post Doctoral Researcher,NREL) - Global share of 17% in 2009. 62% in US. </li></ul><ul><li>First Solar(CdTe) 1.4 GW Capacity and 2.7GW in 2012. Module η 7.5% in 2005 and 11.3% in 2010, 14% in 2015(projected). Recycling Insurance Plan also in place. 80MW installed in Onterio. </li></ul><ul><li>Other CdTe companies are Abound Solar and PrimeSolar(GE). </li></ul><ul><li>Solyndra(CIGS) has 300MW capacity. UniSolar on Flexible substrates(100MW in 2010). </li></ul><ul><li>Sharp µ-morph tech with 10% η . </li></ul><ul><li>TF Tech generates upto 20% more electricity than c-Si at same cost. </li></ul><ul><li>Issues with a-Si: Low efficiency, LID, Uniformity and Deposition rates. </li></ul><ul><li>Kesterites Solar Cells: IBM made 9.6% η cells and 6.8% with thermal evaporation. The material in abundant and so a viable option in future. </li></ul><ul><li>60 TF companies in US and First Solar the leader. </li></ul><ul><li>TF Market Share projected at 20% by 2015. </li></ul>
  15. 15. Large PV Scale Systems <ul><li>Indrapreet Wadhwa(CEO, Azure Power) -Base Deficit of power 10% and Peak Deficit 16%. </li></ul><ul><li>By 2015, Solar PV cost < Diesel, 2020 < Retail, 2025< Grid. </li></ul><ul><li>2MW-Awan Punjab and 5MW-Gujarat. </li></ul><ul><li>Expression of Interest imp and grass-root education needed at nodal level. </li></ul><ul><li>Options for Investment- Equity and Debt- 30:70. Equity-PE,Infra, Development & Tax Funds., 100% FDI allowed. </li></ul><ul><li>Finance options limited in India. </li></ul><ul><li>For Design Grid-level solar radiation data missing. </li></ul><ul><li>Local EPC expertise limited in small-scale/rural solar lighting system. Rigorous training needed. </li></ul><ul><li>Broadband wireless monitoring feasible. </li></ul><ul><li>Grid stability at capacities > 33KW important. </li></ul><ul><li>Rabi Satapathy(President,Reliance Solar) - 5MWp power plant in Jodhpur, largest project till date in India. Also 100 SBI ATMs are solar powered. </li></ul><ul><li>Tilt- 6°, c-Si, Invr- 11kVA(432 nos, 98%)Construction time- 6months, Annual generation of 7.5 million units. </li></ul><ul><li>Gang Operation to turn off at night.CUF 9.4% in 4 months. Generated power, Amb Temp, Module Temp and Iradiation vs time taken. </li></ul>
  16. 16. <ul><li>Rajesh Bhat(President,Juwi India Renewable Energies) -c-Si-:4-5 acres, CdTe:6-7 acres, a-Si:7-8 acres. </li></ul><ul><li>PVSYST for performance yield monitoring. </li></ul><ul><li>53MWp- 70K First Solar Modules in Liebrose Germany in 6 months. </li></ul><ul><li>Solairdirect,France –Installation in CapeTown,SA of 360MWp. 2K installations completed. </li></ul><ul><li>FITs in France- 0.314 Euors/KWh and 0.54 Euors/KWh for BIPV. </li></ul><ul><li>Land Size for 12 MW 24 Hectares, Max distance from site is around 10km.6 months for 12MW installation.19K modules of 230Wp(Yingli). </li></ul><ul><li>Mr Thomas Bickl(Director New Business Development,Shuco) -Largest TF a-Si/µ morph production of 150MW.a-Si- shorter wavelengths & µ morph for longer wavelengths. </li></ul><ul><li>Yield: a-Si> µ morph> c-Si. </li></ul><ul><li>For 5KWp @ 70°C, a-Si: 4.53KWp, c-Si: 4.03Kwp, µ morph: 4.33Kwp. </li></ul><ul><li>8.3% > than poly in Singapore. </li></ul><ul><li>LCOE = Total Life Cycle Cost/Total LifeTime(excluding production cost). </li></ul>
  17. 17. PV Project Development <ul><li>IEC 61701 Salt Mist Corrosion Test for Modules. </li></ul><ul><li>Mr Padmanaban(Director & CEO,Arbutus Consultants) - Studies 3 projects: 1) a-Si 1MW- Chandrapur, 2) c-Si 3MW-Asansol and 3) c-Si 3MW-Kolar. </li></ul><ul><li>Variability data for Chandrapur: 28% for Solar Insolation, 48% for SI + MT + Wind and 52% with addition of RH and AP.-ve coeff with AP & wind, +ve with RH. </li></ul><ul><li>Variability data for Kolar: 94% with Solar Insolation, 98% with SI + MT + Wind. </li></ul>