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MediaPost Marketing Politics Sponsor MarketPredict

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MediaPost Marketing Politics Sponsor MarketPredict

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MediaPost Marketing Politics Sponsor MarketPredict

  1. 1. All Polls Lie
  2. 2. “All models are wrong, but some are useful.” -George Box 2
  3. 3. Poll Miss Moderately Consistent From ‘16-’18 3
  4. 4. 4 Absolute Error of Polls Over Time AverageAbsoluteError Governor House President Senate Year
  5. 5. 5 Poll Average Results Similar, but Result Variance Spikes%ofPollswithCorrectCall Year
  6. 6. 6 Poll Average Results Similar, but Result Variance Spikes%ofPollswithCorrectCall Year
  7. 7. Key Aspects of Adjusting Polls • Poll definition of ‘likely voter’ • Data collection method can impact results • State/race/pollster historic error • Frequency and volume of polling for a given race • Success conditions for the race – especially with primaries 7

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