Despite its size, online advertising was quite under developed At $7bn, the market was bigger than both the outdoor ad space as well as U.S. cable industry advertising. However, it was very unsophisticated. The market wasn’t mature enough to make measurement a viable business
Measurement methodologies were cumbersome, hard to scale, but relied on to facilitate billions of dollars of offline marketing and advertising. These methodologies set a foundation for online measurement, in that a number of these approaches have been modified for online by leading research companies
The growth of Online broadly has exploded over past decade, up four fold over the past decade. Today, Mobile time spent is equal to newspaper and magazine from almost no where a few years ago. And Internet enabled media consumption (if you include mobile) will approach the TV market in the next couple of years. From a marketers standpoint, this should continue a secular shift in all aspects of marketing and advertising towards mobile channels.
Measurement methodologies are also being redeveloped to accommodate for new consumer behavior. Technologies havent kept up with the growth Smartphone – Social – Brands are just waking up to the rich information at their disposal on social platforms Ecomm -
Measurement technologies are addressing fundamental questions in the ad ecosystem
We can discuss this one in the morning.
We can discuss this one in the morning.
We can discuss this one in the morning.
1400 omma display linda gridley
Transformation of the Measurement Industry: How Much Can be Attributed to M&A? November 7, 2011
Introduction <ul><li>Industry leaders today are facing a quickly changing landscape </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Rate of change in industry among the highest in all of digital technology </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Emergence of real time data collection and dissemination driving technology deeper into today’s solutions </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Increasingly tough to compete with new, innovative entrants </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Growing channels and use cases bringing new players to the market </li></ul></ul>Unprecedented opportunity for new leaders to emerge
Snapshot of the Web 10 Years Ago Social networks limited to forums, blogs, and chatrooms 41% of Americans using mobile phones (voice only) Users spent seven hours per week online (email, news, chat) 143 million Americans (54%) using the Internet Source: NTIA Source: Harris Interactive Source: CTIA
Despite its Size, Online Advertising was Quite Underdeveloped U.S. Online Advertising Revenue ($ in billions) Source: IAB Internet Advertising Report, BusinessWeek <ul><li>Highly manual processes </li></ul><ul><li>Little to no accurate measurement methodology </li></ul>“… big advertisers still don't see the value of the Internet yet," Morgan Stanley analyst Michael Russell - July ’01 “… experts in the field now say that advertisers ought to forget about click-throughs… Online ads aren't meant only to spawn direct sales.. They're also for establishing or burnishing a brand…” BusinessWeek – July ‘01
Tried and True Methodologies Were Manual, Expensive and Hard to Scale Random Digit Dialing Mall Intercepts / Interviews Focus Groups Mailed Surveys Set Meters
The Web Quickly Developed Scale and Use Doubling of U.S. Online Penetration Time Spent on Internet + Mobile Approaching TV Source: eMarketer Avg. hrs spent per week ~7hrs ~13hrs Source: ITU, Harris Interactive, comScore
Fundamental Shifts in Usage Are Driving Need for New Measurement Methodologies ~8x growth in U.S. eCommerce ($ in billions) Source: U.S. Census Bureau Introduction of the Smartphone Social Networking Creating Information at Scale Source: comScore Source: Pew Research
The Rapid Growth in Online Advertising Has Created Various Measurement Complexities How effective are my ads? Brand Transaction How are users behaving? How do I measure safety and effectiveness in blind environments? On Site On Social Platforms
M&A Has Been Critical in Shaping Online Measurement <ul><li>Key themes from 2000 – 2008: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Offline players buying online capabilities </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Proprietary data sets became highest sought after </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Realization of mobile potential, key players acquired mobile capabilities </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Real time emerging as important factor in measurement </li></ul></ul>January 2005 April – June 2007 / / / / / March 2008 / February 2007 April 2008 May 2008 October 2007 / / January 2006 / June 2002 / July 2006 / / (Online Audience Measurement Assets)
January 2011 2010 Online advertising overtakes newspapers in U.S. (source: eMarketer) September 2009 / June 2010 / July 2008 Nielsen releases its first quarterly “Three Screen Report”, covering TV, Internet, and mobile October 2009 February 2010 September 2010 February 2011 April 2011 March 2011 August 2011 September 2011 / / / / / / / / / <ul><li>Key themes from 2009 – today: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>New entrants to the market with use cases beyond research – Adobe, IBM, Salesforce </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Measurement in real time environments – Social, RTB </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Measurement -> Data Analytics </li></ul></ul>M&A Has Been Critical in Shaping Online Measurement (cont’d) /
Online Measurement Landscape Today / Social Online Ad Safety / Verification Attribution / Analytics Ad Effectiveness / / / / Ratings / / / Mobile / / /
Highly Attractive Valuations in Online Measurement Survey / Other Web / Data Analytics Mobile Acquirer / Target Date $100.0 $300.0 04/18/11 $340.7 03/30/11 Acquirer / Target Date $75.0 03/03/08 $240.0 04/19/07 $381.8 10/25/07 Acquirer / Target Date Implied Ent. Value ($MM) 12/22/09 NA Acquirer / Target Date $421.5 08/06/08 $43.7 05/28/08 $328.3 02/06/07 Implied Ent. Value ($MM) LTM Rev. Mult. LTM Rev. Mult. LTM Rev. Mult. Implied Ent. Value ($MM) LTM Rev. Mult. 5.03x 6.00x 5.10x NA 4.41x 1.54x NA NA 3.06x 7.50x NA 06/27/07 NA NM 06/26/09 NM $1,675.7 09/15/09 NA 4.60x NA $237.7 02/14/11 2.02x 02/07/11 06/15/10 Social 02/26/07 Implied Ent. Value ($MM) 02/23/10 NA NA 10/06/09 NA NA NA NA 01/10/11 $50.0 7.14x
Acquirer Implied Enterprise Value Target LTM Rev Multiple Date 05/28/08 03/03/08 04/19/07 $43.7 4.41x $75.0 $240.0 6.00x 5.03x <ul><li>Developing mobile capabilities for cross-media planning </li></ul><ul><li>Added competitive internet ratings </li></ul><ul><li>Able to provide internet intelligence to its client base </li></ul>Comments M&A Case Studies: Obtaining Premium Valuation <ul><li>Strengthened display media buying opportunities with retail clients </li></ul>01/10/11 $50.0 7.14x
Who are the Big Acquirers? Acquirer Targets Themes <ul><li>Leveraging strong publisher assets to solve publisher ROI challenges through data </li></ul><ul><li>Approaching from the biggest data challenges – marketing/advertising business intelligence </li></ul><ul><li>Coming at online measurement through strong consumer level data sets (CRM and Jigsaw) </li></ul>New Players Existing Players <ul><li>Using M&A to as part of product and channel extension strategy </li></ul>
Measurement Technologies Will be Important to the Development of Real-Time Bidding <ul><li>Measurement of quality and effectiveness will grow in importance </li></ul><ul><li>Stigma of low quality will further increase importance of real time measurement technologies </li></ul>Blind “ Cookied” Rapidly growing market > Majority of impressions still relatively anonymous U.S. Exchange Traded Media Spending in $MM Source: Forrester RTB Non-RTB
Ad Effectiveness Solutions will Follow the $$ Up the Funnel 65% 35% 71% 29% Performance Brand Traditional Media Digital Media Share shift to digital Demand fulfillment Most innovation and technology M&A at this part of funnel Demand generation Increased interest and innovation as new digital $$ focus earlier in the purchase cycle Source: Credit Agricole, Gridley
Social will Challenge the Status Quo in Both Advertising and User Measurement Coca-Cola Example of Coke using Facebook to elicit feedback on bottle design Massive audience Facebook controls a large part of the adtech supply Facebook (~30%) Rest of the Web Brands are going directly to its consumers through Facebook Source: Comscore Q1 estimates for U.S. Web, Facebook Q1’11: 1.1 trillion impressions
Source: eMarketer Tremendous Promise with Mobile Given Unique Characteristics Computer Newspapers, Magazines, Books Snail Mail Video Camera Range Finder Game Console Alarm Clock Music Player Credit Cards, Identity Telephone PDA GPS, Maps, Compass Camera Watch Don’t know Performed worse than expected Performed as expected Exceeded expectations Haven’t measured Far below expectations ROI of Existing Mobile Marketing Campaigns Measurement will be critical to achieve scale by marketers Over 50% of campaigns lack any sort of measurement
Everything is Becoming Internet-Enabled PC: 1990 - VoIP: 1999 - Mobile: 2008 - Tablet: 2010 - TV: 2012 ? Car: 2013? <ul><li>Growing interest from brand marketers to define ROI across channels </li></ul><ul><li>Data integration becoming increasingly possible/seamless as world become internet-enabled </li></ul>Offline Online
Convergence of Capabilities <ul><li>Becoming hard to determine who is competitive as separate disciplines converge </li></ul><ul><li>Has major M&A implications </li></ul>Users Mobile Social Ad Effectiveness Ad Safety / Verification
Advice to the Audience – Private Companies <ul><li>Unprecedented opportunity for new leadership </li></ul><ul><li>Clear, differentiated capabilities are key </li></ul><ul><li>Buyers will pay premiums for market leaders and experienced teams </li></ul><ul><li>Scale and successful client case studies are key </li></ul><ul><li>Watch for new buyers to emerge </li></ul>
Advice to the Audience – Public Companies <ul><li>Traditional leaders – You are more vulnerable than you think </li></ul><ul><li>Think strategically about innovation and M&A </li></ul><ul><li>Tremendous value being created, competitive dynamics are changing </li></ul><ul><li>Watch out for disruptive business models </li></ul>
Advice to the Audience – VC / PE Investors <ul><li>"Jump In – The Water's Fine" </li></ul><ul><li>Be careful about amount of $ invested </li></ul><ul><li>$250MM+ exits aren't easy! </li></ul><ul><li>Look for new strategic buyers to emerge </li></ul><ul><li>Different companies require different exit strategies </li></ul>
Questions? Linda Gridley Gridley & Company LLC 10 East 53 rd Street, 24 th Floor New York, NY 10022 212.400.9720 tel 212.400.9717 fax Twitter: @gridleyco www.gridleyco.com