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Adaptation of mountain regions
to drought recurrence in a
context of global change
Baptiste NETTIER, Irstea
Sandra Lavorel...
Recent climatic trends in the French Alps
Precipitation T min T max
 A context of
great uncertainty
SECALP project
Objective: To analyse adaptation mechanisms for
mountain regions in the face of climate change,
especially ...
Ecosystem
adaptation
Land use
adaptation
Scenarios and
pathways to
sustainable
management
Long-term
observation system
SEC...
2 territories of the French Alps LTSER
Villar d’Arène, OisansVercors
• Vercors:
• Subalpine Extern Alps
• Dairy farming sy...
21 sites sampled in 1988, 2001 and 2011
Grande Cabane grassland (Vercors)
Grazed / ungrazed plots
since 1988
• Small chang...
Experimental drought and heat wave simulation on Lautaret
and Vercors grasslands
- ↘80% summer precipitations + 1°C night ...
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
05152535
Mortalityrate
Lanslebourg
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
051015
Queige
1900 1920 194...
Perception by farmers and shepherds
of consequences of droughts since 2003, and reactions
• Decrease in forage resources
•...
Perception by foresters
of consequences of droughts since 2003, and reactions
• 2003: strong defoliation on drier / thinne...
Building of prospective scenarios
• Co-construction with a group of
local experts
• 4 contrasted scenarios, combining:
– 2...
Reactions to scenarios: main trends
Intermittent + Global
Leverage system flexibility,
increase surfaces, decrease
livesto...
A role playing game to simulate
grassland management
according to the different
scenarios
Results
Local International
a) Current context
Game board (Round 4)
Decisions-based
rules
b) Scenarios
7%
12%
11%
7%
22%
42%
Actue...
Ecosystem services modelling at the landscape scale
Agronomic value Cultural value
Pollination value Soil C stocks
Regulat...
Lessons from the scenarios
Effects of the climatic hypothesis
• Intermittent drought context already integrated by farmers...
Conclusion: resilience or fragility of
mountain territories?
• Ecosystem adaptation to environmental variability
– Buffer ...
An interdisciplinary and participative
long term monitoring system
Different protocols to survey
vegetation, climate, mana...
An interdisciplinary and participative
long term monitoring system
Thank you for your attention !
Three different reasoning and choices
“I would reduce the economic impact of droughts by diversifying my
productions and m...
Uncertainties on expected climate trends…
Number of days of heat wave
Length of drought
Mean max summer T
Mean annual prec...
Intermittent
Regional
Global
Shock
Four scenarios, combining climatic and
socio-economic contexts
2. BUILDING OF PROSPECTIVE SCENARIOS
2 climatic contexts
In...
Effets des scénarios sur les services
écosystémiques
0
20
40
60
80
100
SOM
RetentNO3
Gbio
LitterMass
CPC
FloweringOnset
Pl...
Management change scenarios in response
to combined climate and social chanee
Local InternationalFuture scenarios
7%
12%
1...
Secalp Project - adaptation of Alpine territories to the increase of droughts in the context global change
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Secalp Project - adaptation of Alpine territories to the increase of droughts in the context global change

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Presentació per part de Sandra Lavorel (Directrice de Recherches CNRS, LECA Labaratouir d'Ecologie Alpine, France) en el marc de la jornada del projecte CIRCLE 2 MOUNTain co-organitzat per l'Oficina Catalana del Canvi Climàtic durant els dies 26 i 27 de setembre de 2013.

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Secalp Project - adaptation of Alpine territories to the increase of droughts in the context global change

  1. 1. Adaptation of mountain regions to drought recurrence in a context of global change Baptiste NETTIER, Irstea Sandra Lavorel, Pénélope Lamarque, CNRS - LECA Benoît Courbaud, Laurent Dobremez, François Véron, Irstea Richard Bonet, Ecrins National Park
  2. 2. Recent climatic trends in the French Alps Precipitation T min T max  A context of great uncertainty
  3. 3. SECALP project Objective: To analyse adaptation mechanisms for mountain regions in the face of climate change, especially recurring droughts – Mechanisms of ecosystem resilience and transformation – Processes of adaptation for livestock farming and forestry – Expected effects of climate change scenarios, in the context of social transformations Guidelines for supporting managers through policy and infrastructure Strategies for long term observation
  4. 4. Ecosystem adaptation Land use adaptation Scenarios and pathways to sustainable management Long-term observation system SECALP: An integrated conceptual framework
  5. 5. 2 territories of the French Alps LTSER Villar d’Arène, OisansVercors • Vercors: • Subalpine Extern Alps • Dairy farming systems, suckler cattle and sheep farming systems, transhumants • Oisans: • High mountain Intern Alps • Suckler cattle and sheep farming systems
  6. 6. 21 sites sampled in 1988, 2001 and 2011 Grande Cabane grassland (Vercors) Grazed / ungrazed plots since 1988 • Small changes and stability in grazing value • Grazing stabilises composition and increases diversity even under drought -0.5 3.0 -0.52.0 AP11 AD11 BP11 BD11 DP11 DD11 EP11 ED11 FP11 FD11 HP11 HD11 IP11 JP11 KP11KD11 AP88 AD88 BP88 BD88 DD88 DP88 ED88 EP88 FD88 FP88 HP88 HD88 IP88 JP88 KD88 KP88 AP01 AD01 BP01 BD01 DP01DD01 EP01 ED01 FP01 FD01 HP01 HD01 IP01 JP01 KP01 Dry grasslands Mesic grasslands Forest clearings Expected trend from 1988 to 2011 under strong drought response No shift towards drought tolerant species = stability A detectable effect of climate change on summer pastures? © G. Loucougaray
  7. 7. Experimental drought and heat wave simulation on Lautaret and Vercors grasslands - ↘80% summer precipitations + 1°C night warming - Extreme event (~2003): one month without precipitation (Lautaret & Vercors) + heat wave +6°C (Lautaret) - Mowing (0/1) – combined with the climate treatment Lautaret Vercors  Limited sensitivity to drought: transient response (Vercors) or resistance (Lautaret)  Short term: prevailing effects of management  Long term: feedbacks via nutrient cycling © S. Aubert© S. Lavorel © G. Loucougaray
  8. 8. 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 05152535 Mortalityrate Lanslebourg 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 051015 Queige 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 01234 Mortalityrate Engins mortality rate CI 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 0.00.51.01.5 Méaudre Are there discernable effects of drought years on tree mortality? • Overall low mortality rates and no long term trend • Links to climate variables: – Strongly predominant effects of storms (yr n or n-1) – No effect of the Palmer Drought Severity Index (Climatic Research Unit, Norwich) – 2nd order effect of increased precipitation
  9. 9. Perception by farmers and shepherds of consequences of droughts since 2003, and reactions • Decrease in forage resources • Decrease in water availability for summering herds • Few vegetation dynamics – “Invasions” by undesirable species, superficial soil degradation • Signs of climate change - “Fewer storms in summer"  Adaptations at farm scale – Impacts and adaptation options differ widely across farming systems (level of reliance on winter fodder) – Mainly tactic responses without long-term adaptation : decrease of grazing pressure, fodder purchase – Pastoral systems have integrated the hypothesis of increasingly frequent droughts into their functioning and made structural adaptations – Drought is only one risk among others for livestock systems: socio-economic context, structural constraints  What adaptations in case of harder droughts ? What consequences for ecosystems Nettier et al., 2010
  10. 10. Perception by foresters of consequences of droughts since 2003, and reactions • 2003: strong defoliation on drier / thinner soils, but not in productive stands; good recovery with only limited mortality • Beetle damage on spruce in 2004-5 • Foresters are aware of climate change and the risk of recurring droughts, but are yet to see climate change effects • Adaptation responses are limited: – Manage stands towards species and structural diversity – Reduce the share of spruce in regional plans – Infrastructure for increased fire risk – Inconclusive attemps to plant more southern species (frost) 2003 2004-5
  11. 11. Building of prospective scenarios • Co-construction with a group of local experts • 4 contrasted scenarios, combining: – 2 climatic contexts – 2 socio-economic contexts • Time path: 30 years trends + precisions for the next 4 years (CAP reform) • Return to the farmers and foresters : strategic adaptations – Storylines – Drawings (landscape changes) – Graphs (forage productivity, CAP subsidies, product prices) • With local experts : consequences at territorial level “Intermittent” climate “Territorial” context Scen.3 Scen.4 Scen.1 Scen.2 “Shock” climate “Global” context
  12. 12. Reactions to scenarios: main trends Intermittent + Global Leverage system flexibility, increase surfaces, decrease livestock as a last resort Intermittent + Territorial Leverage system flexibility and increase surfaces + develop direct sales Shock + Global Decrease livestock and take on off-farm; put a stop to the farm in some cases Shock + Territorial Decrease livestock, develop direct sales + agri- tourism Territorial On-farm diversification Shock Decrease livestock Intermittent Adapt to the situation as in the past + increasing system flexibility to limit fodder purchases Global Offset loss of income through an activity outside the farm / stop the farm
  13. 13. A role playing game to simulate grassland management according to the different scenarios Results
  14. 14. Local International a) Current context Game board (Round 4) Decisions-based rules b) Scenarios 7% 12% 11% 7% 22% 42% Actuel 1 2 3 4 5 7 14% 14% 6% 2% 22% 42% Choc territorial 3 3f 4 4f 5 7 9% 1% 15% 2% 3% 25% 2% 42% Choc global 1 2 3 3f 4 5 5f 7 13% 6% 8% 1% 6% 2%22% 0% 42% graduel territorial 1 2 3 3f 4 4f 5 5f 7 11% 2% 13% 2% 4% 1%24% 1% 42% graduel global 1 2 3 3f 4 4f 5 5f 7 Game board (Initial state) IntermittentDrastic Lamarque et al., 2013 Drought Socio-political context Projection of the game on the territory
  15. 15. Ecosystem services modelling at the landscape scale Agronomic value Cultural value Pollination value Soil C stocks Regulation value Total ES value Lavorel et al. J. Ecol. 2011
  16. 16. Lessons from the scenarios Effects of the climatic hypothesis • Intermittent drought context already integrated by farmers, even if the forage systems are not always adapted and many still have to buy fodder. • Shock climate context difficult for farming systems  degradation of economic and work conditions + important farming system and land use tranformations Effects of the socioeconomic hypothesis • Farmers’ preference for the territorial context: more adapted to mountain farming; many farmers had already diversification projects • Global context: interesting subsidies easy to get, but discordant with conception of job (AEM for wild nature or carbon storage with planting trees…) • Most of the farmers ready to take out further commitment (diversification) • Local experts were surprised, even if such changes are already emerging • They underlined a need of collective facilities in order to support diversification (local abattoirs, sales outlets, formation, structuration of short distribution channels…)  A need of territorial action to accompany adaptation
  17. 17. Conclusion: resilience or fragility of mountain territories? • Ecosystem adaptation to environmental variability – Buffer mechanisms: e.g. plant belowground reserves, rapid soil microbial responses – BUT: • thresholds? • Sensitivity to practices evolutions : fragile equilibrium • Adaptation of actors to environmental variability – Mainly tactic short term responses – Resistant systems but limited resilience ? • Systems under strong constraints – Biophysical limits to production (short growth period, slope…) – Rigid rules (CAP, land access regulations …) • A need of local knowledge on ecosystems functioning in this changing context – How climate, practices, and vegetation co-evolve ? How to manage it ? – Need of dialogue and cooperation at a territorial level
  18. 18. An interdisciplinary and participative long term monitoring system Different protocols to survey vegetation, climate, management A sample of diversified alpine pastures and farms Co-construction of knowledge A conceptual model for data analyzing
  19. 19. An interdisciplinary and participative long term monitoring system
  20. 20. Thank you for your attention !
  21. 21. Three different reasoning and choices “I would reduce the economic impact of droughts by diversifying my productions and my activities” Cereal, poultry workshop, agri-tourism or city work, according to the context “I would adapt but without diversifying my productions because I want to keep my livestock farmer identity” Possible direct sales of meat, salaried work, but in connection with livestock “I wouldn’t change my system because it is already robust enough” Oversized haymaking surfaces or source of income from another activity • differences in livestock farmers “identity” according to the types of farming systems: • Oisans “High mountain” systems : produce hay vs. buy hay • Vercors “Fodder” systems: type of production • Vercors “Pastoral” systems: “pastoralist” vs. “grass farmer”
  22. 22. Uncertainties on expected climate trends… Number of days of heat wave Length of drought Mean max summer T Mean annual precipitation
  23. 23. Intermittent Regional Global Shock
  24. 24. Four scenarios, combining climatic and socio-economic contexts 2. BUILDING OF PROSPECTIVE SCENARIOS 2 climatic contexts Intermittent • Spring or summer droughts alternating with wetter years • Species resilience • In a drought year : 1st cut yield = 60% of a wet year Shock • 4 consecutive spring drought years • Rangeland: deterioration of herbaceous plants • 40% loss in fodder resource for long term 2 socio-economic contexts Global • Roles of agriculture: attractive landscape for city dwellers; carbon storage • Product prices : ≈ -20% (Organic:-10%) • CAP pillar 1: -20%, decoupled, minimum guaranteed • AEM: bonus for grassland, planting trees Territorial • Roles of agriculture: local quality products • Product prices:≈ -20%,except organic & PDO label: maintained • CAP Pillar 1: -20% • AEM: Bonus for biodiversity, commitment to results
  25. 25. Effets des scénarios sur les services écosystémiques 0 20 40 60 80 100 SOM RetentNO3 Gbio LitterMass CPC FloweringOnset PlantDiv NMP 0 20 40 60 80 100 SOM RetentNO3 Gbio LitterMass CPC FloweringOnset PlantDiv NMP Lamarque et al., in prep. Land management types Soil organic matter Nitrate retention Fodder production Standing litter Fodder quality Flowering onset Plant diversity N mineralization Current Scenarios Drastic drought induces a shift from production and cultural services of interest to local stakeholders to higher levels of regulation services of interest to stakeholders outside the study site
  26. 26. Management change scenarios in response to combined climate and social chanee Local InternationalFuture scenarios 7% 12% 11% 7% 22% 42% Actuel 1 2 3 4 5 7 14% 14% 6% 2% 22% 42% Choc territorial 3 3f 4 4f 5 7 9% 1% 15% 2% 3% 25% 2% 42% Choc global 1 2 3 3f 4 5 5f 7 13% 6% 8% 1% 6% 2%22% 0% 42% graduel territorial 1 2 3 3f 4 4f 5 5f 7 11% 2% 13% 2% 4% 1%24% 1% 42% graduel global 1 2 3 3f 4 4f 5 5f 7 IntermittentDrastic Current situation

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