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Cooperations on climate change in the Carpathian region


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Presentació per part de Sandor Szalai (Hungarian Meteorological Service (OMSZ) en el marc de l’acte de clausura del projecte europeu CIRCLE 2 MOUNTain co-organitzat per l'Oficina Catalana del Canvi Climàtic durant els dies 26 i 27 de setembre de 2013.

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Cooperations on climate change in the Carpathian region

  1. 1. Cooperations on climate change in the Carpathian region Sandor Szalai
  2. 2. Location
  3. 3. National adaptation strategies in the region (DAS, 2012)
  4. 4. Adaptation activities of the Carpathian Convention
  5. 5. Environmental pathway of vulnerability and adaptation Jacques Delsalle, Evdokia Achilleos, DG Environment, Unit D1 – Protection of Water Resources Climate Change Ecosystem conditions and supporting services Impact on Ecosystem services Provisioning (Food, Freshwater, Wood/fiber, Fuel) Regulating (Climate, Flood, Diseases, Water purification) Cultural Economic impacts Infrastructures and physical capital (Damages, Losses) Production and Consumption (Processes, consumer behaviour, Growth potential, Variability/disruptions activity) Employment Floods Water scarcity droughts Species phenology Water quality Forest fires Soil degradation Species distribution Permafrost/ice melting Social Impacts Health (Mortality, Morbidity, Labour productivity) Distributive impacts (Social groups, Regions) Resource conflicts Migrations Social fabric Governance Greenhouse gases concentration Temperature (means & extremes) Precipitation (means & extremes) Sea level rise Anthropogenic Pressures Land-use changes Resource-intensive Production/consumption Demographic changes Adaptive Capacity Cultural Capacity, Technological Capacity, Financial Capacity, Gouvernance Portfolio Adaptation Measures Grey Green Soft Tools Knowledge Base Indicators Monitoring
  6. 6. Preparatory actions • Three projects: – Climate of the Carpathian region – Integrated assessment of vulnerability of environmental resources and ecosystem-based adaptation measures (Service contract CARPIVIA) – In-depth assessment of vulnerability of environmental resources and ecosystem-based adaptation measures (Framework contract CarpathCC)
  7. 7. CARPATCLIM results • High-resolution (10 km*10 km) freely available databases • Data availability on monthly and daily level • Time frame: 1961-2010
  8. 8. Temperature and precipitation averages (Lakatos et al., 2013)
  9. 9. Temperature changes, 1961-2010 (Lakatos et al.,
  10. 10. (Lakatos et al., 2013)
  11. 11. Seasonal temperature changes, 1961-20 (Lakatos et al., 2013)
  12. 12. Change of the annual precipitation sum 1961-2010
  13. 13. Change of the seasonal precipitation sums 1961-2010
  14. 14. Change in the number of wet days 1961-2010
  15. 15. Change in the number of days with precipitation above 20 mm, 1961-2010
  16. 16. Change in the maximum daily precipitation sum, 1961-2010
  17. 17. Seasonal temperature change for 2021-2050 compared to 1961-1990 Spring Summer Autumn Winter
  18. 18. Winter Seasonal temperature change for 2071- 2100 compared to 1961-1990 Autumn Summer Spring
  19. 19. Winter Autumn Summer Spring Yearly Seasonal and yearly precipitation change for 2021-2050 and 2071-2100 compared to 1961-1990
  20. 20. IPCC, 2007
  21. 21. CARPIVIA Tasks and Outcomes: • Integrated assessment & discussion of key of vulnerabilities & adaptation measures, including cost-benefit analysis and policy recommendations • Data inventory & knowledge gap analysis (->framework proj) • Web-supported information system • Stakeholder consultation and cooperation with Carpathian Convention CARPIVIA runs until 2013. Partners: Alterra Wageningen UR with ECNC, ECORYS, Grontmij and WWF-DCP CARPIVIA project Werner, 2012
  22. 22. CarpathCC framework project
  23. 23. The Carpathian Region
  24. 24. In-depth study on the key climate change threats and impacts on water resources • Produce maps for projected floods, droughts and changes snow cover • Assess projected seasonal shift in water balance and impacts on soils • Assess the potential impacts of climate change on the implementation of the water framework directive and flood directive • Assess the risk of landslides in relation to changing precipitation patterns and flash floods • Impact of changes in ecosystems and adaptation measures on water resources
  25. 25. In-depth study on the impacts of climate change threats on ecosystems • Assessing the effect of pests and pathogens on the Carpathian forests; climate change-induced increase in virulence; change in distributional and outbreak ranges, and change in populations dynamics of both resident and newly-emerging forest pests and pathogens will be addressed; • Assessing the effect of climate change on protective function of montane and subalpine forests in the Carpathians; • Evaluating the effect of management practices on forest vulnerability to climate change, including expected adaptation potential of forest management; • Evaluating the anticipated changes in species composition of forests, wetlands and grasslands, including climate change effect on grasslands productivity
  26. 26. In-depth study on the impact of climate change on ecosystem based production systems • Positive and negative climate impacts on ecosystem services with specific reference to multifunctional landscapes and grasslands • Assessment of the vulnerability of the tourism sector
  27. 27. In-depth study on adaptation measures • Ex post evaluation of adaptation measures • Supporting costs and benefits studies • Ecological networks and ecosystem fragmentation • Assessing and tailoring adaptation measures for the Carpathian region • Agri-environmental schemes and other farmer support
  28. 28. Supporting stakeholder interaction • series of stakeholder workshops will be organised and managed using knowledge-based facilitation techniques in order to generate: a) a number of action scenarios in relation to the impacts of climate change, based on key impacts and assessments of vulnerability; b) generate a number of adaptation options in relation to these scenarios; c) evaluate the costs and benefits of the options along with their feasibility; and d) identify preferred options and adaptation pathways
  29. 29. Integral vulnerability assessments in focal areas • Tatra mountain, including Zakopane • Rodnei and Maramures • Tarnava Mare area • Irongate national park and foothills • Bükk mountains
  30. 30. Climate Change adaptation WG at Carpathian Convention • Decision COP3/15 on Climate change of the COP 3 of the Carpathian Convention: a Working Group on Adaptation to Climate Change under the Carpathian Convention has been established
  31. 31. Strategic Agenda of Adaptation of the Carpathian Convention (CARPIVIA, 2012, not accepted yet) • Background: Climate Change in the Carpathians , and What does Adaptation Mean? • The Issues: Impacts of Climate Change in the Carpathians • Priorities for the Signatories: Policy Responses to create a Path to a Climate-Proofed Carpathian Economy • Carpathian Space: Naturally Adapting to Changes in the Heart of Europe • Improving the Information Base and Monitoring • Coordination with the Danube, Tisza, Dniester processes • Cross-Cutting Opportunities • Opportunity for the EU Funds from 2014-2020: Steer the Region’s Development Towards a Climate-Proofed Carpathian Space • Actions
  32. 32. Conclusions • High spatial variability of the changes • The models may have problems with the description of tendencies of some basic climate elements • Strong capacity building is requested • Establishment/improvement of monitoring and early warning systems • Further research is needed, but on a more coordinated way
  33. 33. Conclusions • The observations have to be involve in the adaptation measures • Strenghten the adaptation research
  34. 34. Acknowledgement • Author thanks to European Comission for CarpathCC, which is supported by the EU DG ENV Contract no ENV.D.1/FRA/2011/0006
  35. 35. Thank you for your attention!