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University of Vienna, Austria – T. Glade, C. Promper, H. Petschko
CNRS, Strasbourg, France – J.-P. Malet, A. Remaître, A. ...
KEY RESEARCH QUESTION
 Can we identify changes in landslide hazard (susceptibility, frequency,
magnitude) and landslide r...
CONCEPT AND METHODOLOGY
 Definition of time series & maps of actual/changing predisposing/triggering factors
 Creation o...
 Definition of ‘changed’ maps of landcover and socio-economic factors
 Creation of actual and ‘changed’ landslide risks ...
STAKEHOLDERS
Indicators of changes
Maps
CONCEPT AND METHODOLOGY
 Definition of ‘changed’ maps of landcover and socio-econ...
METHOD
 Comparative analysis of 2 study areas with different environmental conditions
and different exposures to landslid...
WAIDHOFFEN AN DER YBBS, LOWER AUSTRIA
 Landslides and damages
Mudflows
Shallow slides
BARCELONNETTE, SOUTH FRENCH ALPS
 Landslides and damages
Faucon, 1996La Valette
Large mudslides Debris flows
Faucon, 2003
PROJECT ORGANIZATION: TASKS
Flowchart of project tasks
Hazard analysis
(Starwars,
Probstab
MassMove)
Landslide inventories...
landslide inventory maps / rainfall thresholds
conditionning factors maps
WORKPACKAGE 1
Cepeda & Devoli (2008)
Montgomery ...
RESULTS
 Landslide inventory maps
Barcelonnette:
- high number of fast-moving landslides (south-facing slope)
- large slo...
RESULTS
 Landslide inventory maps
Waidhofen/Ybbs:
 more than 650 landslide events for the period 1950-2012
(using orthop...
 Climate classification: analysis of synoptic weather situations
 Landslide triggering factors analysis
RESULTS
(1) pola...
 Climate classification: analysis of synoptic weather situations
 Landslide triggering factors analysis
RESULTS
When the...
 Landslide triggering factors analysis
RESULTS
There are no specific relationship
between the occurrence of slow-
moving ...
 Landslide triggering factors analysis
RESULTS
 Rainfall patterns: antecedent cumulative rainfalls and seasonal patterns...
 Landslide triggering factors analysis
RESULTS
 Rainfall patterns: daily rainfall
•Type A: this situation is characteriz...
Daily rainfall vs mass movement: probabilities of mass m.
occurrence for daily rainfall categories…
 Landslide triggering...
Calculations based on the antecedent daily rainfall model (Crozier & Eyles 1980; extended by Glade et al., 2000)
The decay...
Calculations based on the rainfall intensity threshold method (Caine, 1980; Montgomery et al., 2000)
The rainfall intensit...
 Rainfall thresholds: intensity-duration approach
 Landslide triggering factors analysis
RESULTS
10
1
10
0
10
1
10
0
Dur...
 Rainfall thresholds: intensity-duration approach
 Landslide triggering factors analysis
RESULTS
10
1
10
0
10
1
10
0
Dur...
meteorological paramater maps
landcover maps
landslide inventory maps / rainfall thresholds
conditionning factors maps
189...
 Climate modelling
Dataset: station (observed) data
• Network of six meteo stations with
daily precipitation data in the
...
0,0
200,0
400,0
600,0
800,0
1000,0
1200,0
XX71 XX72 XX73 XX74 XX75 XX76 XX77 XX78 XX79 XX80 XX81 XX82 XX83 XX84 XX85 XX86 ...
Map of summer P10dq0.9
• Good relationship with elevation (p-value = 0.00977, r2 = 0.84)
• OLS regression with elevation a...
Extrapolating to future scenario
• Maps of P10dq0.9 were computed from GCM data for ref.
and future periods.
• Ratio betwe...
 Landcover modelling
1956
RESULTS
2004
 Landcover modelling
RESULTS
 Landcover modelling: observed frequency of changes
Density of observed changes
RESULTS
 Landcover modelling: observed frequency of changes
Scenario-based approach (e.g. PRUDENCE)
A: Agriculture
B: Tourism
C: ...
 Landcover modelling: DYNA-CLUE model (logistic regression)
Conversion matrix
Scenario 1 – Environmental protection: assu...
Scenario 1: Environmental protection (2010/2100)
 Landcover modelling
RESULTS
Scenario 2: Tourism activity increase (2010/2100)
 Landcover modelling
RESULTS
Scenario 3: Agriculture increase (2010/2100)
 Landcover modelling
RESULTS
Scenario 4: Increase in landslide hazards (2010/2100)
 Landcover modelling
RESULTS
 Landcover modelling
RESULTS
Waidhofen/Ybbs
There is a steady increase in building area and
streets.
The land cover types...
Translational slide Rotational slide
landslide inventory maps / rainfall thresholds
conditionning factors maps
landslide s...
 Susceptibility modelling
Integration of climate parameter maps (actual, future) and landcover maps (actual, future)
in a...
 Susceptibility modelling
RESULTS
Waidhofen/Ybbs
The map represents the susceptibility
map of 2005 and shows the results ...
 Susceptibility modelling
RESULTS
The results show the distribution of the susceptibility classes in the different scenar...
 Susceptibility modelling
RESULTS
Barcelonnette
 Susceptibility modelling
RESULTS
Richards equation
Transient simulations
 Starwars: slope hydrology (van Beek, 2002; Malet et al., 2005, … and others)
 C...
• Initial conditions: moisture content and groundwater level = 25 years of time series
• Parameter optimisation (Marquardt...
+ 7 m
+ 6 m
+ 5 m
+ 4 m
+ 3 m
+ 2 m
+ 1 m
0 m
1 map per month (june 2000 – may 2001)
 Highest ground water levels:
- in t...
 ProbStab: slope stability (van Beek, 2002; Malet, 2003, Malet et al., 2007)
Richards equation
Transient simulations
• Mo...
• Rainfall: 50 mm in 70h
• 6-years return period
• FOS
• Observed/simulated
GWLs • GEV & observed event
 volumes
 Applic...
 MassMov: mass flow kinematics (Begueria et al., 2009)
Assumptions:
- Saint-Venant equation (shallow water approximation)...
 MassMov: mass flow kinematics (Begueria et al., 2009)
 Application to synthetic cases
Simulation of the propagation of ...
 Hazard assessment through modelling
Estimation of probabilities of failure, runout distances and magnitude parameters (v...
quantitative
scenarios
->
meteorological paramater maps
landcover maps
socio-economic trends
landslide inventory maps / ra...
 Consequence analysis
Schematic overview
of the semi-quantitative
Potential Damage Index
method developed to
estimate co...
 Consequence analysis
RESULTS
Damage Index (ID)
(for the winter and
summer seasons) and
Local Index (IL)
assigned to the...
Caractéristiques physiques
Type de pont Pont à poutre
Nature des piles Aucune
Nature du tablier Acier
Revêtement Bois
Ouve...
 Element at risk mapping and characterization
RESULTS
 Building time serie analysis from old maps and cadasters
RESULTS
 Building time serie analysis from old maps and cadasters
1830
2004
RESULTS
 Building time serie analysis from old maps and cadasters
Barcelonnette
RESULTS
 Consequence analysis
RESULTS
The development of exposure maps (a) layers of elements at risk (b) susceptibility map (c)
...
 Consequence analysis
RESULTS
Damages according to land cover in
per cent for Waidhofen/Ybbs
Damaging events according to...
 Consequence analysis
RESULTS
Exposure of building area and farms in per cent for the past and future scenarios.
The resu...
 Consequence analysis
Example of result of the ski resort area of Pra-Loup
Puissant, A., Van Den Eeckhaut, M., Malet, J.-...
PROGRESS
 Consequence analysis
 Further developments
- Urban building evolution using Geopensim simulation tool
- Conseq...
quantitative
scenarios
->
meteorological paramater maps
landcover maps
socio-economic trends
landslide inventory maps / ra...
 Indicators of changes: landuse/cover changes
 The proposed indicator has been developed to be enough flexible and gener...
RESULTS
Potential Damage Index map produced for the winter season
for the centre of Barcelonnette and the housing of Le Bé...
 Indicators of changes: hydro-climatic
 Accurate mass movement rainfall thresholds estimates are one of the most
importa...
Nevertheless, some interesting results have been found out during the project. The study
conducted within the Barcelonnett...
PROGRESS
 Indicators of changes: hydro-climatic
 Indicators of changes: Geovisualization
 For the study area Waidhofen/Ybbs it is was not possible to implement a
demons...
RESULTS
 Demonstration Platform and Geovisualization
 Data Storage. A huge amount of data is achieved.
Resample, compres...
RESULTS
 Cartoserver frame. Data collected are
transferred inside a mapfile (mrisk.map). The
aim is to fix classification...
RESULTS
 Cartoclient frame. Every client request is
standardized. The plugins to export information
(PDF, CSV files, layo...
PROGRESS
 The database gathers information from different institutes and agencies, but it is
standardized for scale, clas...
C1 C2 C3 C4
H1 R0 R0 R1 R2
H2 R0 R1 R2 R3
H3 R1 R2 R3 R3
H4 R1 R2 R3 R3
Consequences
Hazard
4 risk classes:
R1: Null; R2: ...
PROGRESS
 Demonstration Platform and Geovisualization
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ChangingRISKS - changing pattern of landslide risks as response to global changes in mountain areas

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Presentació per part de Jean-Philippe Malet (CNRS/Institut de Physique du Globe & Laboratoire Image, França) en el marc de l’acte de clausura del projecte europeu CIRCLE 2 MOUNTain co-organitzat per l'Oficina Catalana del Canvi Climàtic durant els dies 26 i 27 de setembre de 2013.

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ChangingRISKS - changing pattern of landslide risks as response to global changes in mountain areas

  1. 1. University of Vienna, Austria – T. Glade, C. Promper, H. Petschko CNRS, Strasbourg, France – J.-P. Malet, A. Remaître, A. Puissant CSIC, Zaragoza, Spain – S. Bégueria, G. Sanchez, R. Serrano Final Meeting, 26-27 September 2013, Barcelona : changing pattern of landslide risks as a response to global changes in mountain areas
  2. 2. KEY RESEARCH QUESTION  Can we identify changes in landslide hazard (susceptibility, frequency, magnitude) and landslide risks (vulnerability, costs) associated to climate and landuse change scenarios?  What indicators to express these possible changes? (modified from Glade & Crozier, 2005)
  3. 3. CONCEPT AND METHODOLOGY  Definition of time series & maps of actual/changing predisposing/triggering factors  Creation of actual and ‘changed’ landslide hazard maps
  4. 4.  Definition of ‘changed’ maps of landcover and socio-economic factors  Creation of actual and ‘changed’ landslide risks maps CONCEPT AND METHODOLOGY  Definition of time series & maps of actual/changing predisposing/triggering factors  Creation of actual and ‘changed’ landslide hazard maps
  5. 5. STAKEHOLDERS Indicators of changes Maps CONCEPT AND METHODOLOGY  Definition of ‘changed’ maps of landcover and socio-economic factors  Creation of actual and ‘changed’ landslide risks maps  Definition of time series & maps of actual/changing predisposing/triggering factors  Creation of actual and ‘changed’ landslide hazard maps
  6. 6. METHOD  Comparative analysis of 2 study areas with different environmental conditions and different exposures to landslide risks Stakeholder: Geological Survey & Spatial Planning and Regional Policy Division of the Federal Government of Lower Austria Stakeholder: Service de Restauration des Terrains en Montagne
  7. 7. WAIDHOFFEN AN DER YBBS, LOWER AUSTRIA  Landslides and damages Mudflows Shallow slides
  8. 8. BARCELONNETTE, SOUTH FRENCH ALPS  Landslides and damages Faucon, 1996La Valette Large mudslides Debris flows Faucon, 2003
  9. 9. PROJECT ORGANIZATION: TASKS Flowchart of project tasks Hazard analysis (Starwars, Probstab MassMove) Landslide inventories Observed probability of occurrence Magnitude-frequency relationships Susceptibility analysis (multivariate modelling) local scale / hot-spot (e.g. 1:5000 – 1:2000) regional scale (e.g. 1:25.000 – 1:10.000) Scale of analysis
  10. 10. landslide inventory maps / rainfall thresholds conditionning factors maps WORKPACKAGE 1 Cepeda & Devoli (2008) Montgomery D R et al. Geology 2000;28:311-314 Landslide: Geomorphologic mapping, aerial photo-interpretation, historical archives, etc. Climate: Synoptic analysis, rainfall antecedent condition, rainfall thresholds (mean & peak intensities), etc. Landcover: Landcover mapping at different dates (from 1956 to present) using historical archives and aerial photograph TECHNIQUES
  11. 11. RESULTS  Landslide inventory maps Barcelonnette: - high number of fast-moving landslides (south-facing slope) - large slow-moving slides with fluidization (black marls outcrops) - many slow moving roto-translational slides (moraine deposits) - more than 200 landslide events for the period 1950-2011  update for temporal assessment (PhD. R. Schlögel) Barcelonnette – point data: 1740 - 2010 Barcelonnette – polygon data: aerial photo-interpretation
  12. 12. RESULTS  Landslide inventory maps Waidhofen/Ybbs:  more than 650 landslide events for the period 1950-2012 (using orthophotographs interpretation : 1962, 1979, 1988 and ALS inventory)  >80% of the events were slides  update for temporal assessment (PhD. C. Promper) Waidhofen/Ybbs – point data: 1950 - 2012 0 5 10 15 20 25 Landslidesaccordingtoarea(%) square meters 200m² classes 1000m² classes >600m² class
  13. 13.  Climate classification: analysis of synoptic weather situations  Landslide triggering factors analysis RESULTS (1) polar air-mass penetrating through the Mediterranean sea (P med) (2) polar air-mass penetrating through the Atlantic ocean or the North sea (Pm) (3) degraded polar air-mass penetrating through the Atlantic ocean or the North sea (Pm d) (4) tropical air-mass penetrating through the Mediterranean sea (T med) (5) tropical air-mass penetrating through the Atlantic ocean (Tm) (6) continental tropical air-mass (T cont)
  14. 14.  Climate classification: analysis of synoptic weather situations  Landslide triggering factors analysis RESULTS When the air mass is crossing the Mediterranean see (P med or T med), most of the events corresponds to debris flows (24 cases out of 32). This must be put in relation with the occurrence of strong and fast thunderstorm in summer
  15. 15.  Landslide triggering factors analysis RESULTS There are no specific relationship between the occurrence of slow- moving landslide and a specific air mass type. Nevertheless for a specific type (Pm), 90% of the events are slow-moving landslides. This can be put in relation with the seasonal frequency of such air-masses type in the South French Alps. Indeed, most of these air masses are crossing the study area in Winter or early Spring.  Climate classification: analysis of synoptic weather situations
  16. 16.  Landslide triggering factors analysis RESULTS  Rainfall patterns: antecedent cumulative rainfalls and seasonal patterns Waidhofen/Ybbs Barcelonnette
  17. 17.  Landslide triggering factors analysis RESULTS  Rainfall patterns: daily rainfall •Type A: this situation is characterized by heavy daily rainfall following a 30-days dry period. For most of the observed events, this climate situation corresponds to violent generalized summer storms •Type B: this situation exhibits the same pattern as Type A except that the rainfall event has been recorded in a single rain gauge as the other rain gauges have recorded nothing or just a small amount of precipitation. In this case, the convective summer storm is localized in a small area (typically a single crest) •Type C: this situation is characterized by heavy cumulative rainfall distributed over a very rainy period of 30 days. This climate situation characterizes either the progressive saturation of the topsoil, the rising of a permanent groundwater table and the build-up of positive pore pressures. •Type D: this situation characterizes absence of rainfall events for a given day of occurrence of a landslides or a debris-flow event. This can be related to two main explanations: (a) the triggering is due to a rapid snow melt without any liquid rain, (b) the rainfall occurs as a localized hailstorm not recorded by the rainfall station.
  18. 18. Daily rainfall vs mass movement: probabilities of mass m. occurrence for daily rainfall categories…  Landslide triggering factors analysis RESULTS  Rainfall patterns: daily rainfall
  19. 19. Calculations based on the antecedent daily rainfall model (Crozier & Eyles 1980; extended by Glade et al., 2000) The decay of antecedent conditions is based on hydrology data, which represent the drainage of a given catchment  Rainfall thresholds: antecedent rainfall approach  Landslide triggering factors analysis Certainty No landslide Landslide not certain Landslide certain DailyPrecipitationinmm [10 Days] -> Differences between winter and summer months -> Winter: Less daily precipitation required to trigger landslides -> Generally: Precipitation on the day of occurrence is much more important than the previous antecedent rainfall -> Landslide triggering rainfall events occurred mostly in summer when events with relatively high precipitation of continental depressions occur. Wallner S. (2012) Niederschlagsschwellenwerte für die Auslösung von Hangrutschungen – in progress RESULTS
  20. 20. Calculations based on the rainfall intensity threshold method (Caine, 1980; Montgomery et al., 2000) The rainfall intensity is based on the total amount of rainfall for a given duration (1h; 2h; 6h; 12h; 24h), which may trigger or reactivate a landslide  Rainfall thresholds: intensity-duration approach  Landslide triggering factors analysis Peak intensity associated to debris flows and mudslides triggering -> Events characterized by high rainfall intensity and short episode duration (i.e. mostly the result of localized convective storms) will trigger mostly debris flows and shallow slides in relatively permeable soils (e.g. moraines, scree slopes or poorly sorted slope deposits). -> Long rainfall periods characterized by low to moderate average and peak rainfall intensity (i.e. the result of multiple and successive storms during a period of several weeks or months) can trigger or reactivate shallow and deep-seated mudslides in low permeability soils and rocks (e.g., black marls, clay-rich material). RESULTS
  21. 21.  Rainfall thresholds: intensity-duration approach  Landslide triggering factors analysis RESULTS 10 1 10 0 10 1 10 0 Duration (h) Intensity (mm/h) A 14d (mm) Generalization of I-D model   DAI n ][ 2 1 where: I, D and  as in ID model An: antecedent n-day precipitation (mm) 1 and 2: constants of the model Cepeda, Nadim, Høeg & Elverhøi (2009)
  22. 22.  Rainfall thresholds: intensity-duration approach  Landslide triggering factors analysis RESULTS 10 1 10 0 10 1 10 0 Duration (h) Intensity (mm/h) A 23d (mm) 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 logD logI 0 = 7.75787+-3.37368 logD+-12.2519 logI No debris flow Debris flow 5163.16788.0 232.181   DAI d 275.0 297.4   DI for debris flows, a traditional ID threshold is sufficient + triggering rainfall 1 to 9 hrs + no need of antecedent rain for slides, an improved performance is achieved with the IAD model + triggering rainfall 3 to 17 hrs + need of antecedent rain of 50 days
  23. 23. meteorological paramater maps landcover maps landslide inventory maps / rainfall thresholds conditionning factors maps 1897 2003 quantitative scenarios -> WORKPACKAGE 2 Climate: Use of downscaled times series from Newtech (Max-Planck-IM), Gach2c (Meteo-France) & SafeLand (CMCC S.c.a.r.l) projects 1970-2000 / 2070-2100 Landcover: DYNA-CLUE model scenarios TECHNIQUES
  24. 24.  Climate modelling Dataset: station (observed) data • Network of six meteo stations with daily precipitation data in the Barcelonnette area • Summer Pndq0.9 computed for each station • Gridded data, 0.035º resolution (aprox. 4 km) • Model CMCC-CM1 (downscaling driven by ECHAM4-REMO GCM/RCM) • Radiative / emmission scenarios: CMIP5 (control), RCP4.5/RCP8.5 (future) • Periods: reference (1965–2000) and future (2001–2050) Dataset: GCM data 1. Scoccimarro E., S. Gualdi, A. Bellucci, A. Sanna, P.G. Fogli, E. Manzini, M. Vichi, P. Oddo, and A. Navarra, 2011: Effects of Tropical Cyclones on Ocean Heat Transport in a High Resolution Coupled General Circulation Model. Journal of Climate, 24, 4368-4384. Example: precipitation field in Barcelonnette of 1st January 1965 RESULTS
  25. 25. 0,0 200,0 400,0 600,0 800,0 1000,0 1200,0 XX71 XX72 XX73 XX74 XX75 XX76 XX77 XX78 XX79 XX80 XX81 XX82 XX83 XX84 XX85 XX86 XX87 XX88 XX89 XX90 XX91 XX92 XX93 XX94 XX95 XX96 XX97 XX98 XX99 XX00 Yearlyrainfall(mm) Yearly rainfall (2071-2100) Yearly rainfall (1971-2000) Moving average 5 yrs (2071-2100) Moving average 5 yrs (1971-2000)  Climate modelling Example of meteorological parameter database: yearly rainfall at the Barcelonnette station for the past (1971-2000) and the future (2071-2100)  Creation of parameter maps relevant for landslide triggering Parameter 1: 90th percentile of maximum n-days summer precipitation (Pndq0.9, 1 ≤ n ≤ 10) • Most landslides are related to intense summer (JJA) rainfall episodes lasting for several days. •The 90th percentile is the extreme event associated to a recurrence period of 10 years, which seems appropriate for landslide occurrence. •Creation of maps of summer Pndq0.9 precipitation for the actual and future periods. RESULTS
  26. 26. Map of summer P10dq0.9 • Good relationship with elevation (p-value = 0.00977, r2 = 0.84) • OLS regression with elevation as covariate. Map of summer P10dq0.9 for the reference period based on station-data Regression between summer P10dq0.9 and elevation  Climate modelling RESULTS
  27. 27. Extrapolating to future scenario • Maps of P10dq0.9 were computed from GCM data for ref. and future periods. • Ratio between future and reference periods was used for extrapolating station-based P10dq0.9 map to future. Map of summer P10dq0.9 for the future period based on station-data and GCM projected change Ratio between future and reference summer P10dq0.9 based on GCM data: cyan = increase, magenta = decrease  Climate modelling RESULTS
  28. 28.  Landcover modelling 1956 RESULTS
  29. 29. 2004  Landcover modelling RESULTS
  30. 30.  Landcover modelling: observed frequency of changes Density of observed changes RESULTS
  31. 31.  Landcover modelling: observed frequency of changes Scenario-based approach (e.g. PRUDENCE) A: Agriculture B: Tourism C: Environmental awareness D. Natural hazard Simplified spider diagram of changing scenarios, and identification of key factors RESULTS
  32. 32.  Landcover modelling: DYNA-CLUE model (logistic regression) Conversion matrix Scenario 1 – Environmental protection: assumption of landcover changes RESULTS
  33. 33. Scenario 1: Environmental protection (2010/2100)  Landcover modelling RESULTS
  34. 34. Scenario 2: Tourism activity increase (2010/2100)  Landcover modelling RESULTS
  35. 35. Scenario 3: Agriculture increase (2010/2100)  Landcover modelling RESULTS
  36. 36. Scenario 4: Increase in landslide hazards (2010/2100)  Landcover modelling RESULTS
  37. 37.  Landcover modelling RESULTS Waidhofen/Ybbs There is a steady increase in building area and streets. The land cover types grassland and forest, which make up the largest part of the study area, show fluctuation over the analysis time. Arable land, acreage, makes up a very small part and is also highly fluctuating. The main driving forces of change, economy, population, tourism and transport increase within scenario 4 . In both maps it is clearly indicated that an increase in population drives building area, especially in the southern valleys. From 2030 to 2100 a major increase in forest areas is shown.
  38. 38. Translational slide Rotational slide landslide inventory maps / rainfall thresholds conditionning factors maps landslide susceptibility maps (statistical models) landslide hazard maps (process-based models) WORKPACKAGE 3 meteorological paramater maps landcover maps quantitative scenarios -> Susceptibility analysis: Multivariate modelling Introduction of new parameter maps Hazard analysis: Modelling chain Starwxars-Probstab- MassMove TECHNIQUES
  39. 39.  Susceptibility modelling Integration of climate parameter maps (actual, future) and landcover maps (actual, future) in a multivariate model  e.g. MSc thesis: A. Schmidt  Hazard modelling Development of processing chain of process-based models: Starwars – ProbStab – MassMove/SlowMove (van Beek, 2002; Malet et al. 2005; Remaitre et al., 2008; Begueria et al., 2009 STARWARS PROBSTAB FOSM approach - pix. Fs <1 - 3 scen. for depth - possibly other .. MassMov SlowMov FOSM approach triggers slope stability Prob. of parameter 1, 2, 3 fast-moving flows FOSM approach slow-moving slides Prob. of parameter 1, 2, 3 Methodology RESULTS
  40. 40.  Susceptibility modelling RESULTS Waidhofen/Ybbs The map represents the susceptibility map of 2005 and shows the results of the regression model. The southern slopes and the Flyschzone in the central part show the highest susceptible areas for all scenarios. In the south river channels are higher susceptible than neighbouring areas and as well as similar areas in the north. In the north a thin net of low susceptibility is within a wider area with higher susceptibility. This represents the roads, which did not have any landslides in the sampling data set.
  41. 41.  Susceptibility modelling RESULTS The results show the distribution of the susceptibility classes in the different scenarios and the backward modelling. A tendency towards an increasing value in the highest two susceptibility classes can be observed. However this trend is not continuing over all time periods. This trend is much stronger from 2050 to 2100 than for the first future period analysed. The modelling backward shows also an increasing susceptibility in the highest class in 1962 but the lowest class decreased not as strong as in the 100 year scenarios.
  42. 42.  Susceptibility modelling RESULTS Barcelonnette
  43. 43.  Susceptibility modelling RESULTS
  44. 44. Richards equation Transient simulations  Starwars: slope hydrology (van Beek, 2002; Malet et al., 2005, … and others)  Core model pi w *w rwi )z(k g kq     • Generalized Darcy’s law for saturated & unsaturated medium t n t n t )n(         • Continuity equation t W z h )(k zy h )(k yx h )(k x                                    • Richards diffusivity equation  Additional capabilities • dual porosity (fissure flow, matrix flow) • lateral inputs: Qlat = f(t) • snow cover formation and snow melting • topographic control: altitude on rainfall temperature slope gradient on radiation • vegetation (canopy interception, transpiration) RESULTS
  45. 45. • Initial conditions: moisture content and groundwater level = 25 years of time series • Parameter optimisation (Marquardt-Levenberg algorithm, Pest software): mean observed data +- 20% • calibration on 2 piezometers with continuous recording + 10 piezometers with punctual measurements  Starwars: slope hydrology (van Beek, 2002; Malet et al., 2005, … and others)  Application to real data: Super-Sauze landslide RESULTS
  46. 46. + 7 m + 6 m + 5 m + 4 m + 3 m + 2 m + 1 m 0 m 1 map per month (june 2000 – may 2001)  Highest ground water levels: - in the main central gully (convergence of flux lines) - in the ablation zone of the earthflow (also the zone with the highest velocities)  Starwars: slope hydrology (van Beek, 2002; Malet et al., 2005, … and others)  Application to real data: Super-Sauze landslide RESULTS
  47. 47.  ProbStab: slope stability (van Beek, 2002; Malet, 2003, Malet et al., 2007) Richards equation Transient simulations • Mohr-Coulomb constitutive equation (c- and f- parameters) • Bishop or Janbu solution • Circular or non circular slip search (minimum FOS) through a grid search specification utility function  Volume of released material  Probabilities of release RESULTS
  48. 48. • Rainfall: 50 mm in 70h • 6-years return period • FOS • Observed/simulated GWLs • GEV & observed event  volumes  Application to real data: Super-Sauze landslide; main failure in May 1999  ProbStab: slope stability (van Beek, 2002; Malet, 2003, Malet et al., 2007) RESULTS
  49. 49.  MassMov: mass flow kinematics (Begueria et al., 2009) Assumptions: - Saint-Venant equation (shallow water approximation) - One-phase flow - Depth-integrated solution Mass and momentum conservation: Rheology: - Viscous fluid (Bingham, Couloimb-viscous, Hershel-Bulkley) - Frictional (pure Coulomb, Voellmy) RESULTS
  50. 50.  MassMov: mass flow kinematics (Begueria et al., 2009)  Application to synthetic cases Simulation of the propagation of a slurry wave over an idealized fan topography. An inlet area of five pixels was defined at the upper part of the fan, which represents the conextion with an upstream torrent. A constant input rate of 80 cm of mud flow was applied at the inlet during the first 20 seconds. The panels show the thickness of the flow at times t = 5, 20, 35 and 50 s, in m. Propagation of a mud flow slurry on a channel. The input hydrograph had a triangular shape, raising from 0.65 m to 0.85 m at 25 seconds and then falling to 0 m at 30 seconds. The panels show the flow thickness at times t = 15, 30, 45 and 60 seconds. Simulation of the interaction between a mudflow and a rigid obstacle over a slope. Color scale: flow depth (m). RESULTS
  51. 51.  Hazard assessment through modelling Estimation of probabilities of failure, runout distances and magnitude parameters (velocity, impact forces, thickness) through Monte-Carlo simulations RESULTS
  52. 52. quantitative scenarios -> meteorological paramater maps landcover maps socio-economic trends landslide inventory maps / rainfall thresholds conditionning factors maps landslide potential consequence maps landslide costs landslide risk maps WORKPACKAGE 4 landslide susceptibility maps (statistical models) landslide hazard maps (process-based models)
  53. 53.  Consequence analysis Schematic overview of the semi-quantitative Potential Damage Index method developed to estimate consequences at a regional scale. (methodology of Puissant et al. (2005) applied to the whole Barcelonnette Basin and Waidhoffen/Ybbs) RESULTS
  54. 54.  Consequence analysis RESULTS Damage Index (ID) (for the winter and summer seasons) and Local Index (IL) assigned to the attributes of the EaR: the values are attributed according to the local situation in the study area. To each attribute of the exposed elements in the database, a relative value, called damage index (ID), reflecting its importance is allocated. These weights are assigned through expert knowledge and reflect the possible losses (costs) if the element at risk would be destroyed by a landslide.
  55. 55. Caractéristiques physiques Type de pont Pont à poutre Nature des piles Aucune Nature du tablier Acier Revêtement Bois Ouverture totale L (en mètre) 15 Longueur tirant d’air L’ (en mètre) 14 Largeur ouvrage l (en mètre) 4 Hauteur tirant d’air (H, en mètre) 7 Aire du tirant d’air (en gris) (m²) 105 Barcelonnette case study  Element at risk mapping and characterization RESULTS
  56. 56.  Element at risk mapping and characterization RESULTS
  57. 57.  Building time serie analysis from old maps and cadasters RESULTS
  58. 58.  Building time serie analysis from old maps and cadasters 1830 2004 RESULTS
  59. 59.  Building time serie analysis from old maps and cadasters Barcelonnette RESULTS
  60. 60.  Consequence analysis RESULTS The development of exposure maps (a) layers of elements at risk (b) susceptibility map (c) exposure map.
  61. 61.  Consequence analysis RESULTS Damages according to land cover in per cent for Waidhofen/Ybbs Damaging events according to land cover type related to depth for Waidhofen/Ybbs
  62. 62.  Consequence analysis RESULTS Exposure of building area and farms in per cent for the past and future scenarios. The results of the analysis for the future exposure for building area and farms show a high increase in exposure in the last maps for 2100 for all scenarios. The class of very high exposure remains very low for all scenarios, probably due to certain preconditioning factors e.g. steep slopes. The second highest class remains below 10% for all scenarios. However a clear increase in exposure is marked for the class “low”, summing up to more than 30% in the last time step analysed.
  63. 63.  Consequence analysis Example of result of the ski resort area of Pra-Loup Puissant, A., Van Den Eeckhaut, M., Malet, J.-P., Hervás, J. (subm). Regional-scale semi-quantitative consequence analysis in the Barcelonnette Region, Southern France. NHESS. RESULTS
  64. 64. PROGRESS  Consequence analysis  Further developments - Urban building evolution using Geopensim simulation tool - Consequence mapping with the modelled landcover scenarios - Cost analysis in progress
  65. 65. quantitative scenarios -> meteorological paramater maps landcover maps socio-economic trends landslide inventory maps / rainfall thresholds conditionning factors maps landslide potential consequences maps landslide costs landslide risks maps Indicators: number of ‘unstable’ pixels, number of pixels affected by runout, number of potentially affected elements at risk ….  google earth kml. visualization WORKPACKAGE 5 landslide susceptibility maps (statistical models) landslide hazard maps (process-based models)
  66. 66.  Indicators of changes: landuse/cover changes  The proposed indicator has been developed to be enough flexible and generic to be applied to regions with diverse risk exposure and socio-economic specificities, and is designed to be independent of the type of landslide causing the damage.  The method includes the creation of a detailed geospatial database on attributes of elements at risk, and an evaluation of the model sensitivity to changes in the combination of attributes is proposed. Special attention is given paid to the classification of the potential damage maps. The PDI method allows calculation of an index for physical injury, structural and functional impacts and socio-economic impacts. RESULTS
  67. 67. RESULTS Potential Damage Index map produced for the winter season for the centre of Barcelonnette and the housing of Le Bérard at Faucon-de-Barcelonnette: a1. DPI map for Barcelonnette a2. DPI map for Faucon-de-Barcelonnette b1. DSF map for Barcelonnette b2. DSF map for Faucon-de-Barcelonnette c1. DCE map for Barcelonnette c2. DCE map for Faucon-de-Barcelonnette d1. PDI map for Barcelonnette d2. PDI map for Faucon-de-Barcelonnette.  The indicator maps (i.e. DPI, DSF, DSE and PDI) can be used for purposes such as landuse planning and emergency management decision-making in terms of risk reduction. The method has been elaborated through discussion with various categories of stakeholders (local authorities, risk planners) in the study area, and other stakeholders (rescue teams, individuals and insurance companies) may have interest in consulting and using such type of maps with a straightforward and easily understandable information.  Indicators of changes: landuse/cover changes
  68. 68.  Indicators of changes: hydro-climatic  Accurate mass movement rainfall thresholds estimates are one of the most important prerequisite in most landslide hazard assessments. In a general way, definition of hydro-climatic indicators of change is much more difficult to assess than the indicators of changes associated to landuse/cover changes for different reasons. For instance, the climatic settings are much more varying than the landuse/cover characteristics in space and in time. Moreover, these variations are not always well recorded due to a lack of climatic stations at the highest parts/stretches of the study areas.  Another problem is the great heterogeneity of climatic datasets, either for ‘real’ observations (raingauges, radar, etc.) than for Climate Change modelling simulations results (spatial scale varies from 100 to 102 km²). Of course many techniques allow to link and merge these data, but the uncertainties are still too severe. It is still not possible to use them as potential indicators. RESULTS
  69. 69. Nevertheless, some interesting results have been found out during the project. The study conducted within the Barcelonnette basin defines rainfall patterns associated to fast- gravitational movement (e.g. debris flows) and slow-gravitational movement (e.g. mudslides): 1. At the monthly scale, a clear distinction can be observed for debris flows (strong storm associated to a 7-day dry period) and mudslide (at least 40 mm of antecedent precipitation during the last 7 days and at least 200 mm during the last 180 days) 2. At the daily scale, the correlation between events and the rainfall of the triggering date is quite good, no threshold can be established due to the inaccurate knowledge on rainfall variability (e.g. the upper part of the hillslopes) 3. At the hourly scale, debris flows triggering is associated to relatively short and intense summer thunderstorms while mudslides are associated to longer rainfall sequences exhibiting low average and peak intensities. This work is being continued in order to define potential indicators for the Waidhofen/Ybbs study area.  Indicators of changes: hydro-climatic RESULTS
  70. 70. PROGRESS  Indicators of changes: hydro-climatic
  71. 71.  Indicators of changes: Geovisualization  For the study area Waidhofen/Ybbs it is was not possible to implement a demonstration platform due to data usage restrictions. This was agreed on in the project meeting in Vienna, June 2011 with the consortium. However UNIVIE was regularly involved in the development of the demonstration platform Barcelon@.  Barcelon@ is a WebGIS application based on open source standards. It supplies a system to decrease the disparity between scientific results and stakeholders’ practical needs (simple interface, easy-to-use buttons in a generally user- friendly approach). Secondly the wide collection of assorted information (e.g. landslide controlling factors, susceptibility maps, information on elements at risk and their vulnerability, administrative data) and the data comparison can offer a feasible support in the decision-making process.  The application is based on different levels of access (citizens or end-users) and completely supports Geo Web Services (useful for external connections). RESULTS
  72. 72. RESULTS  Demonstration Platform and Geovisualization  Data Storage. A huge amount of data is achieved. Resample, compression and clipping (based on municipality level) of every layers arranged a homogeneous geo-database all over the entire Basin
  73. 73. RESULTS  Cartoserver frame. Data collected are transferred inside a mapfile (mrisk.map). The aim is to fix classification, transparency, location and visual rules of all the dataset. Thus the spatial geoinformation is adapted in framework standards  Demonstration Platform and Geovisualization
  74. 74. RESULTS  Cartoclient frame. Every client request is standardized. The plugins to export information (PDF, CSV files, layout template) and final browser visualization are managed here. The web services guarantee connection with Cartoserver for every front-end request by users  Demonstration Platform and Geovisualization
  75. 75. PROGRESS  The database gathers information from different institutes and agencies, but it is standardized for scale, classification and resolution. Thus user can have a homogenous “state of art” of all the available information necessary in risk management, considering the original accuracy of dataset involved. Different tasks are available inside Barcelon@ considering geo-spatial tools and all information covering the study area. The criteria to create different clusters supply the proof of scientific results performed and the state-of-art about knowledge on natural events  The wide collection of assorted information and the data comparison offers a great support in the decision-making process. CartoWeb is the open source type of platform selected for the task. It is a comprehensive and ready-to-use WebGIS and supplies advanced development. The architecture of the service is totally customized through visualization needs and the task of the research  The service is currently under test and will be online by end 2013  Demonstration Platform and Geovisualization
  76. 76. C1 C2 C3 C4 H1 R0 R0 R1 R2 H2 R0 R1 R2 R3 H3 R1 R2 R3 R3 H4 R1 R2 R3 R3 Consequences Hazard 4 risk classes: R1: Null; R2: Low; R3: Moderate; R4: High PROGRESS
  77. 77. PROGRESS  Demonstration Platform and Geovisualization
  78. 78. Thank you for your attention!

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