1
Assessment of Risks on transportation Networks resulting from
slope Instability and Climate change in the Alps
Main objectives
A. Document current DF/shallow landslide
activity in the Alps
B. Consequences on transportation network
C....
3 key regions
3
1- French Alps
(Haute-Durance, Savoie)
2- Eastern Italian Alps
(Tagliamento and Adige rivers)
3- Swiss Alp...
Method: point A (Current DF/landslides activity)
 Current DF databases (historical archives –tree ring)
 Current climate...
Methods: point A (DF/landslides activity related to
current climate conditions)
 In the 3 regions
– Probabilistic and Det...
6
Main results: landslides local scale
Landslide suseptibily considering different precipitation scenarios
defined from me...
Main results : Landslides local scale
7
 Ubaye Valley - Southern French Alps
 7 shallow forested landslides sampled in t...
Main results: landslides local scale
 Landslide reactivation related to temperature anomalies
during spring
 Evolution s...
 Local scale with current meteorological
conditions (I/D of precipitation analysis)
9
Precipitation during each event
Mai...
UNIPAD Contribution 10
Main results point A: occurrence of
Debris flows-current climate
 Meso scale climate variables onl...
Main results point A: occurrence of
Debris flows-current climate
 Meso scale climate variables only
11
Df occurrence
Prec...
UNIPAD Contribution 12
Main results point A: occurrence of
Debris flows- current climate
Debris flow probability=
1 / (1 +...
Main results point A: DF and
landslides activity
 Local scale
 DF and shallow landslides triggered by
extreme precipitat...
Main results point A:
Meso scale : climate + geomorphic parameters
14
Regional component
(climate variables at annual scal...
Main results point A meso scale
15
Individual component
• Elevation
• Area
• Slope
• Lithology
• Land cover
• Permafrost
R...
16
Geomorphological
component (R² 0.78)
Climatic component
(R² 0.72)
Total explained variance: 0.84
% of total variance 0....
Point D: Consequences on
transportation network
17
A. Consequences on
transportation network
The 4th of june 2012 a DF eve...
Method: point D
(Impacts of DF/landslides activity on road network)
 DF impact databases in the three regions
 A compara...
Impacts on transportation: Swiss
Alps
19
 Loss of accessibility
in Zermatt valley
125 DF events since the19th century
20
(>7events/year) = 1/(1+exp (-(-
21,91+0,14*Nrd+0,9Tx)))
Impacts on transportation French
Alps
 Identification of
impac...
21
(>7events/year) = 1/(1+exp (-(-
21,91+0,14*Nrd+0,9Tx)))
Main results point D
 Loss of accessibility with national and
...
22
>
35
m
m
>35 mm during 1h
Rainy event responsible for DF event
23
35 mm <10 y return period
IT1 : Normal situation
IT2 : Via Gap
IT3 : Via St Jean de
Maurienne
Grenoble-Briançon options.
24
Normal way
Road destroye...
NCAR/ASP Thompson Lecture Series
Institutionnal vulnerability : crisis management.
Reconstitution of decision-making and o...
26
Impacts on transportation: Italy
 Identification of impacted
roads with local
stakeholders (Tyrol region)
 Probabilit...
Point C: Definition of RCMs future
scenarios
 All simulations are based on the A1B
emission scenario
 24 RCMs until 2050...
Main results point C: error
corrections
28
Raw (orange) and corrected (blue) precipitation distributions
at station St. Va...
29
after Météo-France, 2011
Near future (2020-2050)) Far future (2070-2100)
Annual precipitation sum changes
Annual maximu...
Main results point C: Triggering
climate parameters in the future
30
Climate change signal of precipitation types . The nu...
Main objectives
A. Document current DF/shallow landslide activity in the Alps
B. Consequences on transportation network
C....
Point D local scale: Results
32
Current period
Future period
Model of DF triggering
based on Rcms data
24 RCMs until 2050
...
Point D meso scale: Results
Model of DF triggering
calibrated on Safran data
33
Current period
Future period
Interchanging...
Point E: Help to practical users
34
1. Volume and run out estimates from MassMov2D
(physical model) for case studies
2. Cr...
From a case study example: The rif Blanc df
event on 4th of June 2012
Volume and run out estimates from a deterministic mo...
36
Volume estimated from peak flow calculation :
(from the video of the 2nd DF at 10am)
1. Number of pictures per second o...
Help to local stakeholders
37
Sensitivity tests of local protections to DF on the
Highway France-Italy
<15 year return per...
 Sensitivity to climate change of the debris flows
which are able to reach the road system along the
considered road
38
H...
Conclusions
 Current relationships between
DF/landslides and climate depends on the
considered region
 Slope processes s...
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Assessment of Risks on transportation Networks resulting from slope Instability and Climate change in the Alps

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Presentació per part de Vincent Jomelli (CNRS-LPG, França) en el marc de l’acte de clausura del projecte europeu CIRCLE 2 MOUNTain co-organitzat per l'Oficina Catalana del Canvi Climàtic durant els dies 26 i 27 de setembre de 2013.

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Assessment of Risks on transportation Networks resulting from slope Instability and Climate change in the Alps

  1. 1. 1 Assessment of Risks on transportation Networks resulting from slope Instability and Climate change in the Alps
  2. 2. Main objectives A. Document current DF/shallow landslide activity in the Alps B. Consequences on transportation network C. Definition of RCM future climate scenarios D. DF response considering future climate conditions and lande use planning E. Help to practical users users 2
  3. 3. 3 key regions 3 1- French Alps (Haute-Durance, Savoie) 2- Eastern Italian Alps (Tagliamento and Adige rivers) 3- Swiss Alps (Zermatt valley) Grenoble Briançon Geneve Italy 3- Swiss Alps (Zermatt valley)
  4. 4. Method: point A (Current DF/landslides activity)  Current DF databases (historical archives –tree ring)  Current climate conditions 4 - Observed climate data - Reanalyses climate data - 27 RCMs downscaled scenarios France Italy Switzerland 650 DF from 1970 50 DF from 1990s 250 DF+ from 1850
  5. 5. Methods: point A (DF/landslides activity related to current climate conditions)  In the 3 regions – Probabilistic and Deterministic models of occurrence at local scale (Shallow landslide model) considering climatic components – Probabilistic model of occurrence at meso scale (logit simple or hierarchic model) considering climatic and geomorphologic components 5
  6. 6. 6 Main results: landslides local scale Landslide suseptibily considering different precipitation scenarios defined from meteo stations
  7. 7. Main results : Landslides local scale 7  Ubaye Valley - Southern French Alps  7 shallow forested landslides sampled in the Riou Bourdoux catchment  759 pine trees - 3096 cores sampled  1298 growth disturbances dated
  8. 8. Main results: landslides local scale  Landslide reactivation related to temperature anomalies during spring  Evolution suggests a shift from snowmelt-induced landslides (controlled by winter precipitation) to reactivations controlled by spring temperatures 8 N = 61
  9. 9.  Local scale with current meteorological conditions (I/D of precipitation analysis) 9 Precipitation during each event Main results point A: occurrence of Debris flows-current meteo Not a good option
  10. 10. UNIPAD Contribution 10 Main results point A: occurrence of Debris flows-current climate  Meso scale climate variables only - Pseudo homogeneization of RTM data to reduce mistakes in the database - Analyze from 1970 No data or year without debris flows ?
  11. 11. Main results point A: occurrence of Debris flows-current climate  Meso scale climate variables only 11 Df occurrence Precipitation (Number of rainy days) Temperature (maximum summer temperature)
  12. 12. UNIPAD Contribution 12 Main results point A: occurrence of Debris flows- current climate Debris flow probability= 1 / (1 + EXP((30,23+1*Tx+0,67*Nrd))) Meteo factors Value Wald Chi-Square Pr > Chi² % correct 0 % correct 1 % correct Tx 1,064 5,089 0,024 72,47% 72,31% 72%%Nrd 0,671 3,066 0,008
  13. 13. Main results point A: DF and landslides activity  Local scale  DF and shallow landslides triggered by extreme precipitations  Meso scale  DF and shallow landslides triggered by Temperature + precipitation 13
  14. 14. Main results point A: Meso scale : climate + geomorphic parameters 14 Regional component (climate variables at annual scale) Individual component (catchments characteristics) Binary probability for a catchment i for a year t Statistical modeling: bayesian hierarchical probabilistic model based on logistic regression logit (pit) = a0 + αi + βt
  15. 15. Main results point A meso scale 15 Individual component • Elevation • Area • Slope • Lithology • Land cover • Permafrost Regional component • Number of rainy days • Daily max temperature • P>10mm/d • P>20mm/d • …..
  16. 16. 16 Geomorphological component (R² 0.78) Climatic component (R² 0.72) Total explained variance: 0.84 % of total variance 0.29 1- Permafrost 80% 2- Surface area 13% 3- Forest (land cover) 7% % of total variance 0.55 1- max T in summer 67% 2- Nb of rainy days 33% Main results point A (meso scale): Role of climatic and geomorphic variables in DF triggerring
  17. 17. Point D: Consequences on transportation network 17 A. Consequences on transportation network The 4th of june 2012 a DF event destroyed the road close to Lautaret pass
  18. 18. Method: point D (Impacts of DF/landslides activity on road network)  DF impact databases in the three regions  A comparative analysis in normal and disturbed situation of the network (Accessibility : distance and time)  Susceptibility of the network considering future DF probabilities  Crisis management analysis (In France only) 18
  19. 19. Impacts on transportation: Swiss Alps 19  Loss of accessibility in Zermatt valley 125 DF events since the19th century
  20. 20. 20 (>7events/year) = 1/(1+exp (-(- 21,91+0,14*Nrd+0,9Tx))) Impacts on transportation French Alps  Identification of impacted roads
  21. 21. 21 (>7events/year) = 1/(1+exp (-(- 21,91+0,14*Nrd+0,9Tx))) Main results point D  Loss of accessibility with national and international impacts The 4th of June 2012 a DF event destroyed the road close to Lautaret pass
  22. 22. 22 > 35 m m >35 mm during 1h
  23. 23. Rainy event responsible for DF event 23 35 mm <10 y return period
  24. 24. IT1 : Normal situation IT2 : Via Gap IT3 : Via St Jean de Maurienne Grenoble-Briançon options. 24 Normal way Road destroyed by the DF event 2 solutions + 1h30; 36€ + 1h10; 66€
  25. 25. NCAR/ASP Thompson Lecture Series Institutionnal vulnerability : crisis management. Reconstitution of decision-making and organizational process :
  26. 26. 26 Impacts on transportation: Italy  Identification of impacted roads with local stakeholders (Tyrol region)  Probability of dysfonction in the future
  27. 27. Point C: Definition of RCMs future scenarios  All simulations are based on the A1B emission scenario  24 RCMs until 2050 and 17 RCMs until 2100 from the EU-FP6 project ENSEMBLES.  Error correction. 27
  28. 28. Main results point C: error corrections 28 Raw (orange) and corrected (blue) precipitation distributions at station St. Valent (Tirol). Left: Light and moderate precipitation; Right: Heavy precipitation.
  29. 29. 29 after Météo-France, 2011 Near future (2020-2050)) Far future (2070-2100) Annual precipitation sum changes Annual maximum temperature changes +2°C +4°C slightly more slightly less Main results point C  Future climate change
  30. 30. Main results point C: Triggering climate parameters in the future 30 Climate change signal of precipitation types . The number of stations with increasing (arrow up), decreasing (arrow down), and no change (horizontal arrow (-1 % to +1 %)) for precipitation frequency of different thresholds is shown. Different colors represent the numbers of stations.
  31. 31. Main objectives A. Document current DF/shallow landslide activity in the Alps B. Consequences on transportation network C. Definition of RCM future climate scenarios D. DF response considering future climate conditions and lande use planning E. Help to practical users 31
  32. 32. Point D local scale: Results 32 Current period Future period Model of DF triggering based on Rcms data 24 RCMs until 2050 17 RCMs until 2100 A1B scenarioModel of DF triggering forced by future climate scenarios 2100 2050
  33. 33. Point D meso scale: Results Model of DF triggering calibrated on Safran data 33 Current period Future period Interchanging Safran with RCMs downscaled data Model of DF triggering based on Rcms data 24 RCMs until 2050 17 RCMs until 2100 A1B scenario Model of DF triggering forced by future climate scenarios Step 1 Step 2 Step 3
  34. 34. Point E: Help to practical users 34 1. Volume and run out estimates from MassMov2D (physical model) for case studies 2. Crisis amanagment analysis 3. Fonctional disturbance analysis regional and international scale  In France  In Italy  In Switzerland 1. Volume and run out estimates from MassMov2D (physical model) for case studies 2. Probability of future dysfonction based on climate scenarios for cases studies 1. Fonctional disturbance analysis regional and international scale 2. Technical investigations
  35. 35. From a case study example: The rif Blanc df event on 4th of June 2012 Volume and run out estimates from a deterministic model 35
  36. 36. 36 Volume estimated from peak flow calculation : (from the video of the 2nd DF at 10am) 1. Number of pictures per second on the video (30p/sec). 2. Section of the flow (L x h x WP). 3. Choose a representative block (B). transported distance/ time between : Position 1 at the time T Position 2 at the time T+1 4. Qp = WS (m²) x velocity (m/s) 5. Rickenmann volume estimation : Qp = 0.1V0.83 V = 10 760 Debris flow volume (2nd) = 11 000m3
  37. 37. Help to local stakeholders 37 Sensitivity tests of local protections to DF on the Highway France-Italy <15 year return period <30 year return period
  38. 38.  Sensitivity to climate change of the debris flows which are able to reach the road system along the considered road 38 Help to local stakeholders in italy Summer Fall
  39. 39. Conclusions  Current relationships between DF/landslides and climate depends on the considered region  Slope processes strongly impact transportation network  Perception of DF Risk depends on the region  Mitigation is not perfect ! (No by pass, underestimation of protected constructions)  Good relationhsip with public stakeholders more difficult with private component 39

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