A Powerful Partnership: GIS and Sampling

MEASURE Evaluation
MEASURE EvaluationMEASURE Evaluation works to improve collection, analysis and presentation of data to promote better use of data in planning, policymaking, managing, monitoring and evaluating population, health and nutrition programs.
John Spencer
Peter Lance
Aiko Hattori
MEASURE Evaluation
University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
May 2015
Webinar
Apowerful partnership:
GIS and Sampling
MEASURE Evaluation Publication:
GIS and Sampling
Available at MEASURE
Evaluation web site.
measureevaluation.org/publications
Household surveys are an
important source of
information,
but they are expensive.
Increasing emphasis on narrowly
targeted sub-populations of interest
How does one find these
populations of interest?
Geographic Information Systems (GIS) is a system designed to
capture, store, manipulate, analyze, manage, and present data
using a geographic context.
Adapted from wikipedia
GIS makes it possible to link data using a common geography.
This leads to better understanding of the context of data.
GIS slices the world
into layers.
GIS can be a cost
effective, practical
solution that can result in
better surveys.
A modest
investment
in GIS can
make the
survey
process
more
efficient and
effective.
How can GIS help with sampling?
GIS is a very efficient way to find a
population of interest in a larger group of
people…
Provided there is a spatial pattern to the
population.
The key is whether GIS can effectively identify the
spatial pattern for predictive purposes
A concrete example…
Sampling:
The process of selecting samples
that allow us to learn something
about populations
A Powerful Partnership: GIS and Sampling
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Health Spending
A Powerful Partnership: GIS and Sampling
A Powerful Partnership: GIS and Sampling
Probability Sampling
1. Each member of the population is in
the “list” from which we will select
2. We know each member of the
population’s probability of selection
from the list
So how in practice do we select in
accordance with probability sampling????
We usually do so from a list of the
population called a sampling frame.
That list must contain all members of the
population (sampling units) to satisfy
probability sampling
No Name Address Race Selected?
1 Burt T. Macklin 100 April Street Caucasian
2 Andre Jones 302 Lyon Lane African American
3 Michelle M. Lee 101 Jay Street Asian American
4 Dan T. Waters 402 Smith Street Caucasian
5 Molly McGuire 111 Main Street Caucasian
6 Ron S. Swanson 0 Opsec Ave Caucasian
7 Lisa Levine 3 Phillips Ave Caucasian
8 Andrea Rice 14 Main Street African American
9 Hunter Lewis 29 9th Avenue Caucasian
10 Jennifer Lownes 14c Avenue A African American
11 Anna A. Anderson 148d Avenue A African American
12 Gary Park 55 Park Avenue Asian American
… … … …
10548 Peter R. Martinez 404 Main Street Latino
10549 Faith B. Rogers 201 Cedar Street African American
10550 Will Billings 402 Buford Place Caucasian
No Name Address Race Selected?
1 Burt T. Macklin 100 April Street Caucasian No
2 Andre Jones 302 Lyon Lane African American
3 Michelle M. Lee 101 Jay Street Asian American
4 Dan T. Waters 402 Smith Street Caucasian
5 Molly McGuire 111 Main Street Caucasian
6 Ron S. Swanson 0 Opsec Ave Caucasian
7 Lisa Levine 3 Phillips Ave Caucasian
8 Andrea Rice 14 Main Street African American
9 Hunter Lewis 29 9th Avenue Caucasian
10 Jennifer Lownes 14c Avenue A African American
11 Anna A. Anderson 148d Avenue A African American
12 Gary Park 55 Park Avenue Asian American
… … … … …
10548 Peter R. Martinez 404 Main Street Latino
10549 Faith B. Rogers 201 Cedar Street African American
10550 Will Billings 402 Buford Place Caucasian
No Name Address Race Selected?
1 Burt T. Macklin 100 April Street Caucasian No
2 Andre Jones 302 Lyon Lane African American No
3 Michelle M. Lee 101 Jay Street Asian American
4 Dan T. Waters 402 Smith Street Caucasian
5 Molly McGuire 111 Main Street Caucasian
6 Ron S. Swanson 0 Opsec Ave Caucasian
7 Lisa Levine 3 Phillips Ave Caucasian
8 Andrea Rice 14 Main Street African American
9 Hunter Lewis 29 9th Avenue Caucasian
10 Jennifer Lownes 14c Avenue A African American
11 Anna A. Anderson 148d Avenue A African American
12 Gary Park 55 Park Avenue Asian American
… … … … …
10548 Peter R. Martinez 404 Main Street Latino
10549 Faith B. Rogers 201 Cedar Street African American
10550 Will Billings 402 Buford Place Caucasian
No Name Address Race Selected?
1 Burt T. Macklin 100 April Street Caucasian No
2 Andre Jones 302 Lyon Lane African American No
3 Michelle M. Lee 101 Jay Street Asian American No
4 Dan T. Waters 402 Smith Street Caucasian
5 Molly McGuire 111 Main Street Caucasian
6 Ron S. Swanson 0 Opsec Ave Caucasian
7 Lisa Levine 3 Phillips Ave Caucasian
8 Andrea Rice 14 Main Street African American
9 Hunter Lewis 29 9th Avenue Caucasian
10 Jennifer Lownes 14c Avenue A African American
11 Anna A. Anderson 148d Avenue A African American
12 Gary Park 55 Park Avenue Asian American
… … … … …
10548 Peter R. Martinez 404 Main Street Latino
10549 Faith B. Rogers 201 Cedar Street African American
10550 Will Billings 402 Buford Place Caucasian
No Name Address Race Selected?
1 Burt T. Macklin 100 April Street Caucasian No
2 Andre Jones 302 Lyon Lane African American No
3 Michelle M. Lee 101 Jay Street Asian American No
4 Dan T. Waters 402 Smith Street Caucasian No
5 Molly McGuire 111 Main Street Caucasian
6 Ron S. Swanson 0 Opsec Ave Caucasian
7 Lisa Levine 3 Phillips Ave Caucasian
8 Andrea Rice 14 Main Street African American
9 Hunter Lewis 29 9th Avenue Caucasian
10 Jennifer Lownes 14c Avenue A African American
11 Anna A. Anderson 148d Avenue A African American
12 Gary Park 55 Park Avenue Asian American
… … … … …
10548 Peter R. Martinez 404 Main Street Latino
10549 Faith B. Rogers 201 Cedar Street African American
10550 Will Billings 402 Buford Place Caucasian
No Name Address Race Selected?
1 Burt T. Macklin 100 April Street Caucasian No
2 Andre Jones 302 Lyon Lane African American No
3 Michelle M. Lee 101 Jay Street Asian American No
4 Dan T. Waters 402 Smith Street Caucasian No
5 Molly McGuire 111 Main Street Caucasian Yes
6 Ron S. Swanson 0 Opsec Ave Caucasian
7 Lisa Levine 3 Phillips Ave Caucasian
8 Andrea Rice 14 Main Street African American
9 Hunter Lewis 29 9th Avenue Caucasian
10 Jennifer Lownes 14c Avenue A African American
11 Anna A. Anderson 148d Avenue A African American
12 Gary Park 55 Park Avenue Asian American
… … … … …
10548 Peter R. Martinez 404 Main Street Latino
10549 Faith B. Rogers 201 Cedar Street African American
10550 Will Billings 402 Buford Place Caucasian
No Name Address Race Selected?
1 Burt T. Macklin 100 April Street Caucasian No
2 Andre Jones 302 Lyon Lane African American No
3 Michelle M. Lee 101 Jay Street Asian American No
4 Dan T. Waters 402 Smith Street Caucasian No
5 Molly McGuire 111 Main Street Caucasian Yes
6 Ron S. Swanson 0 Opsec Ave Caucasian No
7 Lisa Levine 3 Phillips Ave Caucasian
8 Andrea Rice 14 Main Street African American
9 Hunter Lewis 29 9th Avenue Caucasian
10 Jennifer Lownes 14c Avenue A African American
11 Anna A. Anderson 148d Avenue A African American
12 Gary Park 55 Park Avenue Asian American
… … … … …
10548 Peter R. Martinez 404 Main Street Latino
10549 Faith B. Rogers 201 Cedar Street African American
10550 Will Billings 402 Buford Place Caucasian
No Name Address Race Selected?
1 Burt T. Macklin 100 April Street Caucasian No
2 Andre Jones 302 Lyon Lane African American No
3 Michelle M. Lee 101 Jay Street Asian American No
4 Dan T. Waters 402 Smith Street Caucasian No
5 Molly McGuire 111 Main Street Caucasian Yes
6 Ron S. Swanson 0 Opsec Ave Caucasian No
7 Lisa Levine 3 Phillips Ave Caucasian No
8 Andrea Rice 14 Main Street African American
9 Hunter Lewis 29 9th Avenue Caucasian
10 Jennifer Lownes 14c Avenue A African American
11 Anna A. Anderson 148d Avenue A African American
12 Gary Park 55 Park Avenue Asian American
… … … … …
10548 Peter R. Martinez 404 Main Street Latino
10549 Faith B. Rogers 201 Cedar Street African American
10550 Will Billings 402 Buford Place Caucasian
No Name Address Race Selected?
1 Burt T. Macklin 100 April Street Caucasian No
2 Andre Jones 302 Lyon Lane African American No
3 Michelle M. Lee 101 Jay Street Asian American No
4 Dan T. Waters 402 Smith Street Caucasian No
5 Molly McGuire 111 Main Street Caucasian Yes
6 Ron S. Swanson 0 Opsec Ave Caucasian No
7 Lisa Levine 3 Phillips Ave Caucasian No
8 Andrea Rice 14 Main Street African American No
9 Hunter Lewis 29 9th Avenue Caucasian
10 Jennifer Lownes 14c Avenue A African American
11 Anna A. Anderson 148d Avenue A African American
12 Gary Park 55 Park Avenue Asian American
… … … … …
10548 Peter R. Martinez 404 Main Street Latino
10549 Faith B. Rogers 201 Cedar Street African American
10550 Will Billings 402 Buford Place Caucasian
No Name Address Race Selected?
1 Burt T. Macklin 100 April Street Caucasian No
2 Andre Jones 302 Lyon Lane African American No
3 Michelle M. Lee 101 Jay Street Asian American No
4 Dan T. Waters 402 Smith Street Caucasian No
5 Molly McGuire 111 Main Street Caucasian Yes
6 Ron S. Swanson 0 Opsec Ave Caucasian No
7 Lisa Levine 3 Phillips Ave Caucasian No
8 Andrea Rice 14 Main Street African American No
9 Hunter Lewis 29 9th Avenue Caucasian No
10 Jennifer Lownes 14c Avenue A African American
11 Anna A. Anderson 148d Avenue A African American
12 Gary Park 55 Park Avenue Asian American
… … … … …
10548 Peter R. Martinez 404 Main Street Latino
10549 Faith B. Rogers 201 Cedar Street African American
10550 Will Billings 402 Buford Place Caucasian
No Name Address Race Selected?
1 Burt T. Macklin 100 April Street Caucasian No
2 Andre Jones 302 Lyon Lane African American No
3 Michelle M. Lee 101 Jay Street Asian American No
4 Dan T. Waters 402 Smith Street Caucasian No
5 Molly McGuire 111 Main Street Caucasian Yes
6 Ron S. Swanson 0 Opsec Ave Caucasian No
7 Lisa Levine 3 Phillips Ave Caucasian No
8 Andrea Rice 14 Main Street African American No
9 Hunter Lewis 29 9th Avenue Caucasian No
10 Jennifer Lownes 14c Avenue A African American Yes
11 Anna A. Anderson 148d Avenue A African American
12 Gary Park 55 Park Avenue Asian American
… … … … …
10548 Peter R. Martinez 404 Main Street Latino
10549 Faith B. Rogers 201 Cedar Street African American
10550 Will Billings 402 Buford Place Caucasian
No Name Address Race Selected?
1 Burt T. Macklin 100 April Street Caucasian No
2 Andre Jones 302 Lyon Lane African American No
3 Michelle M. Lee 101 Jay Street Asian American No
4 Dan T. Waters 402 Smith Street Caucasian No
5 Molly McGuire 111 Main Street Caucasian Yes
6 Ron S. Swanson 0 Opsec Ave Caucasian No
7 Lisa Levine 3 Phillips Ave Caucasian No
8 Andrea Rice 14 Main Street African American No
9 Hunter Lewis 29 9th Avenue Caucasian No
10 Jennifer Lownes 14c Avenue A African American Yes
11 Anna A. Anderson 148d Avenue A African American
12 Gary Park 55 Park Avenue Asian American
… … … … …
10548 Peter R. Martinez 404 Main Street Latino
10549 Faith B. Rogers 201 Cedar Street African American
10550 Will Billings 402 Buford Place Caucasian
No Name Address Race Selected?
1 Burt T. Macklin 100 April Street Caucasian No
2 Andre Jones 302 Lyon Lane African American No
3 Michelle M. Lee 101 Jay Street Asian American No
4 Dan T. Waters 402 Smith Street Caucasian No
5 Molly McGuire 111 Main Street Caucasian Yes
6 Ron S. Swanson 0 Opsec Ave Caucasian No
7 Lisa Levine 3 Phillips Ave Caucasian No
8 Andrea Rice 14 Main Street African American No
9 Hunter Lewis 29 9th Avenue Caucasian No
10 Jennifer Lownes 14c Avenue A African American Yes
11 Anna A. Anderson 148d Avenue A African American No
12 Gary Park 55 Park Avenue Asian American
… … … … …
10548 Peter R. Martinez 404 Main Street Latino
10549 Faith B. Rogers 201 Cedar Street African American
10550 Will Billings 402 Buford Place Caucasian
No Name Address Race Selected?
1 Burt T. Macklin 100 April Street Caucasian No
2 Andre Jones 302 Lyon Lane African American No
3 Michelle M. Lee 101 Jay Street Asian American No
4 Dan T. Waters 402 Smith Street Caucasian No
5 Molly McGuire 111 Main Street Caucasian Yes
6 Ron S. Swanson 0 Opsec Ave Caucasian No
7 Lisa Levine 3 Phillips Ave Caucasian No
8 Andrea Rice 14 Main Street African American No
9 Hunter Lewis 29 9th Avenue Caucasian No
10 Jennifer Lownes 14c Avenue A African American Yes
11 Anna A. Anderson 148d Avenue A African American No
12 Gary Park 55 Park Avenue Asian American No
… … … … …
10548 Peter R. Martinez 404 Main Street Latino
10549 Faith B. Rogers 201 Cedar Street African American
10550 Will Billings 402 Buford Place Caucasian
No Name Address Race Selected?
1 Burt T. Macklin 100 April Street Caucasian No
2 Andre Jones 302 Lyon Lane African American No
3 Michelle M. Lee 101 Jay Street Asian American No
4 Dan T. Waters 402 Smith Street Caucasian No
5 Molly McGuire 111 Main Street Caucasian Yes
6 Ron S. Swanson 0 Opsec Ave Caucasian No
7 Lisa Levine 3 Phillips Ave Caucasian No
8 Andrea Rice 14 Main Street African American No
9 Hunter Lewis 29 9th Avenue Caucasian No
10 Jennifer Lownes 14c Avenue A African American Yes
11 Anna A. Anderson 148d Avenue A African American No
12 Gary Park 55 Park Avenue Asian American No
… … … … …
10548 Peter R. Martinez 404 Main Street Latino No
10549 Faith B. Rogers 201 Cedar Street African American
10550 Will Billings 402 Buford Place Caucasian
No Name Address Race Selected?
1 Burt T. Macklin 100 April Street Caucasian No
2 Andre Jones 302 Lyon Lane African American No
3 Michelle M. Lee 101 Jay Street Asian American No
4 Dan T. Waters 402 Smith Street Caucasian No
5 Molly McGuire 111 Main Street Caucasian Yes
6 Ron S. Swanson 0 Opsec Ave Caucasian No
7 Lisa Levine 3 Phillips Ave Caucasian No
8 Andrea Rice 14 Main Street African American No
9 Hunter Lewis 29 9th Avenue Caucasian No
10 Jennifer Lownes 14c Avenue A African American Yes
11 Anna A. Anderson 148d Avenue A African American No
12 Gary Park 55 Park Avenue Asian American No
… … … … …
10548 Peter R. Martinez 404 Main Street Latino No
10549 Faith B. Rogers 201 Cedar Street African American No
10550 Will Billings 402 Buford Place Caucasian
No Name Address Race Selected?
1 Burt T. Macklin 100 April Street Caucasian No
2 Andre Jones 302 Lyon Lane African American No
3 Michelle M. Lee 101 Jay Street Asian American No
4 Dan T. Waters 402 Smith Street Caucasian No
5 Molly McGuire 111 Main Street Caucasian Yes
6 Ron S. Swanson 0 Opsec Ave Caucasian No
7 Lisa Levine 3 Phillips Ave Caucasian No
8 Andrea Rice 14 Main Street African American No
9 Hunter Lewis 29 9th Avenue Caucasian No
10 Jennifer Lownes 14c Avenue A African American Yes
11 Anna A. Anderson 148d Avenue A African American No
12 Gary Park 55 Park Avenue Asian American No
… … … … …
10548 Peter R. Martinez 404 Main Street Latino No
10549 Faith B. Rogers 201 Cedar Street African American No
10550 Will Billings 402 Buford Place Caucasian Yes
No Name Address Race Selected?
1 Burt T. Macklin 100 April Street Caucasian
2 Andre Jones 302 Lyon Lane African American
3 Michelle M. Lee 101 Jay Street Asian American
4 Dan T. Waters 402 Smith Street Caucasian
5 Molly McGuire 111 Main Street Caucasian
6 Ron S. Swanson 0 Opsec Ave Caucasian
7 Lisa Levine 3 Phillips Ave Caucasian
8 Andrea Rice 14 Main Street African American
9 Hunter Lewis 29 9th Avenue Caucasian
10 Jennifer Lownes 14c Avenue A African American
11 Anna A. Anderson 148d Avenue A African American
12 Gary Park 55 Park Avenue Asian American
… … … …
10548 Peter R. Martinez 404 Main Street Latino
10549 Faith B. Rogers 201 Cedar Street African American
10550 Will Billings 402 Buford Place Caucasian
No Name Address Race Selected?
2 Andre Jones 302 Lyon Lane African American
8 Andrea Rice 14 Main Street African American
10 Jennifer Lownes 14c Avenue A African American
11 Anna A. Anderson 148d Avenue A African American
… … … …
10549 Faith B. Rogers 201 Cedar Street African American
No Name Address Race Selected?
2 Andre Jones 302 Lyon Lane African American No
8 Andrea Rice 14 Main Street African American No
10 Jennifer Lownes 14c Avenue A African American Yes
11 Anna A. Anderson 148d Avenue A African American No
… … … …
10549 Faith B. Rogers 201 Cedar Street African American Yes
>>>>>Stratification<<<<<
A Powerful Partnership: GIS and Sampling
A Powerful Partnership: GIS and Sampling
A Powerful Partnership: GIS and Sampling
A Powerful Partnership: GIS and Sampling
A Powerful Partnership: GIS and Sampling
A Powerful Partnership: GIS and Sampling
A Powerful Partnership: GIS and Sampling
A Powerful Partnership: GIS and Sampling
A Powerful Partnership: GIS and Sampling
A Powerful Partnership: GIS and Sampling
A Powerful Partnership: GIS and Sampling
A Powerful Partnership: GIS and Sampling
A Powerful Partnership: GIS and Sampling
A Powerful Partnership: GIS and Sampling
A Powerful Partnership: GIS and Sampling
Multistage Sampling
DHS
Census Clusters
Households
Women within Households
What We Have Learned
• Representative estimates typically require probability sampling
• Probability sampling is in practice most commonly performed
with lists from the entire population called a sampling frame
• Sampling can be stratified by dividing the frame into mutually
exclusive and exhaustive separate frames for different
subpopulations
• You can still form a representative estimate for a subpopulation
even if the selected units from it are scattered across frames
for different strata
• In practice sampling is usually multistage
Dengue
Fever
A Powerful Partnership: GIS and Sampling
The Plan
The Sample Size Objective
112 Clusters
A Powerful Partnership: GIS and Sampling
Now, we know an important survey prior:
History suggests that we will find dengue
cases in only around 4.9 percent of
clusters.
Let’s Talk Costs
$200: The cost to monitor each selected
study cluster
$2000: The fieldwork cost per cluster
with a dengue outbreak
This means an expected cost per cluster
of
$200+.049 x $2000 ≈$298
Uh Oh
At that price, we can afford to select
only
$300,000/$298≈1006 clusters
From these we would expect only
1006 X .049≈49 clusters
to have a dengue outbreak.
Even worse:
We are 112-49=63 clusters short!!!
A Powerful Partnership: GIS and Sampling
A Powerful Partnership: GIS and Sampling
A Powerful Partnership: GIS and Sampling
A Powerful Partnership: GIS and Sampling
A Powerful Partnership: GIS and Sampling
A Powerful Partnership: GIS and Sampling
A Powerful Partnership: GIS and Sampling
A Powerful Partnership: GIS and Sampling
A Powerful Partnership: GIS and Sampling
A Powerful Partnership: GIS and Sampling
A Powerful Partnership: GIS and Sampling
A Powerful Partnership: GIS and Sampling
A Powerful Partnership: GIS and Sampling
A Powerful Partnership: GIS and Sampling
My name is Aedes Aegypti.
I really like to bite.
But I’m also kinda lazy
A Powerful Partnership: GIS and Sampling
A Powerful Partnership: GIS and Sampling
A Powerful Partnership: GIS and Sampling
A Powerful Partnership: GIS and Sampling
But can we exploit this with GIS?
A Powerful Partnership: GIS and Sampling
Sampling Units
Sampling Units
Risk Factor
Sampling Units
Risk Factor
Risk Factor
Sampling Units
Risk Factor
Risk Factor
Risk Factor
Sampling Units
Risk Factor
Risk Factor
Risk Factor
Risk Factor
Sampling Units
Risk Factor
Risk Factor
Risk Factor
Risk Factor
A Powerful Partnership: GIS and Sampling
A Powerful Partnership: GIS and Sampling
Sampling Units
Risk Factor
Risk Factor
Risk Factor
Risk Factor
A Powerful Partnership: GIS and Sampling
A Powerful Partnership: GIS and Sampling
A Powerful Partnership: GIS and Sampling
A Powerful Partnership: GIS and Sampling
A Powerful Partnership: GIS and Sampling
A Powerful Partnership: GIS and Sampling
A Powerful Partnership: GIS and Sampling
Uh Oh
A Powerful Partnership: GIS and Sampling
A Powerful Partnership: GIS and Sampling
A Powerful Partnership: GIS and Sampling
(Yeah…we’re kind of picky)
A Powerful Partnership: GIS and Sampling
A Powerful Partnership: GIS and Sampling
A Powerful Partnership: GIS and Sampling
A Powerful Partnership: GIS and Sampling
A Powerful Partnership: GIS and Sampling
A Powerful Partnership: GIS and Sampling
A Powerful Partnership: GIS and Sampling
59 Feet
59 Feet
59 Feet
46 Feet
59 Feet
59 Feet
46 Feet
59 Feet
33 Feet
59 Feet
46 Feet
59 Feet
33 Feet
33 Feet
59 Feet
46 Feet
59 Feet
33 Feet
33 Feet
46 Feet
59 Feet
46 Feet
59 Feet
33 Feet
33 Feet
30 Feet
46 Feet
59 Feet
46 Feet
59 Feet
33 Feet
33 Feet
30 Feet
46 Feet
59 Feet 39 Feet
46 Feet
59 Feet
33 Feet
33 Feet
30 Feet
46 Feet
59 Feet 39 Feet
52 Feet
46 Feet
59 Feet
33 Feet
33 Feet
30 Feet
46 Feet
59 Feet 39 Feet
52 Feet
49 Feet
46 Feet
59 Feet
33 Feet
33 Feet
30 Feet
46 Feet
59 Feet 39 Feet
52 Feet
49 Feet
82 Feet
33 Feet
39 Feet
59 Feet
52 Feet
49 Feet
33 Feet
46 Feet
A Powerful Partnership: GIS and Sampling
A Powerful Partnership: GIS and Sampling
A Powerful Partnership: GIS and Sampling
A Powerful Partnership: GIS and Sampling
Sampling Units
Risk Factor
Risk Factor
Risk Factor
Risk Factor
Sampling Units
Risk Factor
Risk Factor
Risk Factor
Risk Factor
A Powerful Partnership: GIS and Sampling
A Powerful Partnership: GIS and Sampling
A Powerful Partnership: GIS and Sampling
A Powerful Partnership: GIS and Sampling
A Powerful Partnership: GIS and Sampling
Sampling Units
Risk Factor
Risk Factor
Risk Factor
Risk Factor
Sampling Units
Risk Factor
Risk Factor
Risk Factor
Risk Factor
Sampling Units
Risk Factor
Risk Factor
Risk Factor
Risk Factor
A Powerful Partnership: GIS and Sampling
A Powerful Partnership: GIS and Sampling
Two Strata of Clusters
• Low Risk: 95% of clusters have a Low Risk
of Dengue Outbreak (2% risk of outbreak
during study)
• High Risk: 5% of clusters have a High Risk
of Dengue Outbreak (60% risk of outbreak
during study)
Note that this is consistent with 4.9%
overall risk across clusters:
.95 X .02 + .05 X .6 ≈ .049
High Outbreak
Risk
Low Outbreak
Risk
High Outbreak
Risk
Low Outbreak
Risk
High Outbreak
Risk
Low Outbreak
Risk
High Outbreak
Risk
Low Outbreak
Risk
The Power of Sampling and GIS
One Possible $300,000 Scheme:
Sample 180 High Risk clusters with expected
yield of 108 with dengue outbreaks
AND
Sample 200 Low Risk clusters with a expected
yield of 4 dengue outbreaks
The Payoff
• Without Stratification: We expect to
observe 49 clusters with dengue outbreaks
• With Stratification: We expect to observe
112 clusters with dengue outbreaks
Let’s consider a counterfactual: how much
survey budget we would need to obtain
112 dengue clusters without stratification
into high and low risk clusters?
112
.049
𝑋 $298 = $681,142.86
Let’s consider a counterfactual: how much
survey budget we would need to obtain
112 dengue clusters without stratification
into high and low risk clusters?
112
.049
𝑋 $298 = $681,142.86
Let’s consider a counterfactual: how much
survey budget we would need to obtain
112 dengue clusters without stratification
into high and low risk clusters?
112
.049
𝑋 $298 = $681,142.86
Let’s consider a counterfactual: how much
survey budget we would need to obtain
112 dengue clusters without stratification
into high and low risk clusters?
112
.049
𝑋 $298 = $681,142.86
Let’s consider a counterfactual: how much
survey budget we would need to obtain
112 dengue clusters without stratification
into high and low risk clusters?
112
.049
𝑋 $298 = $681,142.86
Fieldwork Costs to Get 112 Clusters with
Outbreak
With GIS Without GIS
$ 300,000.00 $681,142.86
A Powerful Partnership: GIS and Sampling
A GIS Isn’t Free…
It Costs Something to Build One
Difference in survey fieldwork
costs
Without GIS: $681,142.86
With GIS: $300,000.00
$381,142.86
A Powerful Partnership: GIS and Sampling
A Powerful Partnership: GIS and Sampling
A Powerful Partnership: GIS and Sampling
A Powerful Partnership: GIS and Sampling
A Powerful Partnership: GIS and Sampling
A Powerful Partnership: GIS and Sampling
$381,142.85!!!!!
A Powerful Partnership: GIS and Sampling
$381,142.85!!!!!
“Big Ideas”
We were trying to sample from a
subpopulation
“Big Ideas”
That subpopulation had a predictable spatial
pattern to its distribution
“Big Ideas”
We used a GIS as a framework to predict
where the subpopulation was likely to be
“Big Ideas”
We then stratified the frame for the study
area into high and low “risk” sampling units
The Point
This gave us the ability to sample far
more from the subpopulation for a given
survey cost.
The Point
As long as it is not too expensive to build,
the GIS can reduce the costs of obtaining
a sample of a given size from the
subpopulation.
Principles
GIS and Sampling
Full list in publication.
West Nile Virus
A Powerful Partnership: GIS and Sampling
A Powerful Partnership: GIS and Sampling
A Powerful Partnership: GIS and Sampling
Have a clear protocol for GIS construction
•Automate as much as possible
•For instance
automated
rooftop
signature
calculation
Yet be aware that the world is full of surprises
Groundtruth
A Powerful Partnership: GIS and Sampling
Assumptions will
have consequences
The road ahead…
There is more spatial data than ever before and GIS
software is easier to use than it has ever been.
There is also more data in general available than
ever before.
GIS can bring all of that data together to create
cheaper, better surveys.
MEASURE Evaluation Publication:
GIS and Sampling
Available at MEASURE
Evaluation web site.
measureevaluation.org/publications
MEASURE Evaluation is funded by the U.S. Agency for
International Development (USAID) under terms of
Cooperative Agreement AID-OAA-L-14-00004 and
implemented by the Carolina Population Center,
University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill in partnership
with Futures Group, ICF International, John Snow, Inc.,
Management Sciences for Health, and Tulane University.
The views expressed in this presentation do not
necessarily reflect the views of USAID or the United
States government.
www.measureevaluation.org
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A Powerful Partnership: GIS and Sampling

  • 1. John Spencer Peter Lance Aiko Hattori MEASURE Evaluation University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill May 2015 Webinar Apowerful partnership: GIS and Sampling
  • 2. MEASURE Evaluation Publication: GIS and Sampling Available at MEASURE Evaluation web site. measureevaluation.org/publications
  • 3. Household surveys are an important source of information, but they are expensive.
  • 4. Increasing emphasis on narrowly targeted sub-populations of interest
  • 5. How does one find these populations of interest?
  • 6. Geographic Information Systems (GIS) is a system designed to capture, store, manipulate, analyze, manage, and present data using a geographic context. Adapted from wikipedia
  • 7. GIS makes it possible to link data using a common geography. This leads to better understanding of the context of data.
  • 8. GIS slices the world into layers.
  • 9. GIS can be a cost effective, practical solution that can result in better surveys.
  • 10. A modest investment in GIS can make the survey process more efficient and effective.
  • 11. How can GIS help with sampling?
  • 12. GIS is a very efficient way to find a population of interest in a larger group of people…
  • 13. Provided there is a spatial pattern to the population.
  • 14. The key is whether GIS can effectively identify the spatial pattern for predictive purposes
  • 16. Sampling: The process of selecting samples that allow us to learn something about populations
  • 44. Probability Sampling 1. Each member of the population is in the “list” from which we will select 2. We know each member of the population’s probability of selection from the list
  • 45. So how in practice do we select in accordance with probability sampling???? We usually do so from a list of the population called a sampling frame. That list must contain all members of the population (sampling units) to satisfy probability sampling
  • 46. No Name Address Race Selected? 1 Burt T. Macklin 100 April Street Caucasian 2 Andre Jones 302 Lyon Lane African American 3 Michelle M. Lee 101 Jay Street Asian American 4 Dan T. Waters 402 Smith Street Caucasian 5 Molly McGuire 111 Main Street Caucasian 6 Ron S. Swanson 0 Opsec Ave Caucasian 7 Lisa Levine 3 Phillips Ave Caucasian 8 Andrea Rice 14 Main Street African American 9 Hunter Lewis 29 9th Avenue Caucasian 10 Jennifer Lownes 14c Avenue A African American 11 Anna A. Anderson 148d Avenue A African American 12 Gary Park 55 Park Avenue Asian American … … … … 10548 Peter R. Martinez 404 Main Street Latino 10549 Faith B. Rogers 201 Cedar Street African American 10550 Will Billings 402 Buford Place Caucasian
  • 47. No Name Address Race Selected? 1 Burt T. Macklin 100 April Street Caucasian No 2 Andre Jones 302 Lyon Lane African American 3 Michelle M. Lee 101 Jay Street Asian American 4 Dan T. Waters 402 Smith Street Caucasian 5 Molly McGuire 111 Main Street Caucasian 6 Ron S. Swanson 0 Opsec Ave Caucasian 7 Lisa Levine 3 Phillips Ave Caucasian 8 Andrea Rice 14 Main Street African American 9 Hunter Lewis 29 9th Avenue Caucasian 10 Jennifer Lownes 14c Avenue A African American 11 Anna A. Anderson 148d Avenue A African American 12 Gary Park 55 Park Avenue Asian American … … … … … 10548 Peter R. Martinez 404 Main Street Latino 10549 Faith B. Rogers 201 Cedar Street African American 10550 Will Billings 402 Buford Place Caucasian
  • 48. No Name Address Race Selected? 1 Burt T. Macklin 100 April Street Caucasian No 2 Andre Jones 302 Lyon Lane African American No 3 Michelle M. Lee 101 Jay Street Asian American 4 Dan T. Waters 402 Smith Street Caucasian 5 Molly McGuire 111 Main Street Caucasian 6 Ron S. Swanson 0 Opsec Ave Caucasian 7 Lisa Levine 3 Phillips Ave Caucasian 8 Andrea Rice 14 Main Street African American 9 Hunter Lewis 29 9th Avenue Caucasian 10 Jennifer Lownes 14c Avenue A African American 11 Anna A. Anderson 148d Avenue A African American 12 Gary Park 55 Park Avenue Asian American … … … … … 10548 Peter R. Martinez 404 Main Street Latino 10549 Faith B. Rogers 201 Cedar Street African American 10550 Will Billings 402 Buford Place Caucasian
  • 49. No Name Address Race Selected? 1 Burt T. Macklin 100 April Street Caucasian No 2 Andre Jones 302 Lyon Lane African American No 3 Michelle M. Lee 101 Jay Street Asian American No 4 Dan T. Waters 402 Smith Street Caucasian 5 Molly McGuire 111 Main Street Caucasian 6 Ron S. Swanson 0 Opsec Ave Caucasian 7 Lisa Levine 3 Phillips Ave Caucasian 8 Andrea Rice 14 Main Street African American 9 Hunter Lewis 29 9th Avenue Caucasian 10 Jennifer Lownes 14c Avenue A African American 11 Anna A. Anderson 148d Avenue A African American 12 Gary Park 55 Park Avenue Asian American … … … … … 10548 Peter R. Martinez 404 Main Street Latino 10549 Faith B. Rogers 201 Cedar Street African American 10550 Will Billings 402 Buford Place Caucasian
  • 50. No Name Address Race Selected? 1 Burt T. Macklin 100 April Street Caucasian No 2 Andre Jones 302 Lyon Lane African American No 3 Michelle M. Lee 101 Jay Street Asian American No 4 Dan T. Waters 402 Smith Street Caucasian No 5 Molly McGuire 111 Main Street Caucasian 6 Ron S. Swanson 0 Opsec Ave Caucasian 7 Lisa Levine 3 Phillips Ave Caucasian 8 Andrea Rice 14 Main Street African American 9 Hunter Lewis 29 9th Avenue Caucasian 10 Jennifer Lownes 14c Avenue A African American 11 Anna A. Anderson 148d Avenue A African American 12 Gary Park 55 Park Avenue Asian American … … … … … 10548 Peter R. Martinez 404 Main Street Latino 10549 Faith B. Rogers 201 Cedar Street African American 10550 Will Billings 402 Buford Place Caucasian
  • 51. No Name Address Race Selected? 1 Burt T. Macklin 100 April Street Caucasian No 2 Andre Jones 302 Lyon Lane African American No 3 Michelle M. Lee 101 Jay Street Asian American No 4 Dan T. Waters 402 Smith Street Caucasian No 5 Molly McGuire 111 Main Street Caucasian Yes 6 Ron S. Swanson 0 Opsec Ave Caucasian 7 Lisa Levine 3 Phillips Ave Caucasian 8 Andrea Rice 14 Main Street African American 9 Hunter Lewis 29 9th Avenue Caucasian 10 Jennifer Lownes 14c Avenue A African American 11 Anna A. Anderson 148d Avenue A African American 12 Gary Park 55 Park Avenue Asian American … … … … … 10548 Peter R. Martinez 404 Main Street Latino 10549 Faith B. Rogers 201 Cedar Street African American 10550 Will Billings 402 Buford Place Caucasian
  • 52. No Name Address Race Selected? 1 Burt T. Macklin 100 April Street Caucasian No 2 Andre Jones 302 Lyon Lane African American No 3 Michelle M. Lee 101 Jay Street Asian American No 4 Dan T. Waters 402 Smith Street Caucasian No 5 Molly McGuire 111 Main Street Caucasian Yes 6 Ron S. Swanson 0 Opsec Ave Caucasian No 7 Lisa Levine 3 Phillips Ave Caucasian 8 Andrea Rice 14 Main Street African American 9 Hunter Lewis 29 9th Avenue Caucasian 10 Jennifer Lownes 14c Avenue A African American 11 Anna A. Anderson 148d Avenue A African American 12 Gary Park 55 Park Avenue Asian American … … … … … 10548 Peter R. Martinez 404 Main Street Latino 10549 Faith B. Rogers 201 Cedar Street African American 10550 Will Billings 402 Buford Place Caucasian
  • 53. No Name Address Race Selected? 1 Burt T. Macklin 100 April Street Caucasian No 2 Andre Jones 302 Lyon Lane African American No 3 Michelle M. Lee 101 Jay Street Asian American No 4 Dan T. Waters 402 Smith Street Caucasian No 5 Molly McGuire 111 Main Street Caucasian Yes 6 Ron S. Swanson 0 Opsec Ave Caucasian No 7 Lisa Levine 3 Phillips Ave Caucasian No 8 Andrea Rice 14 Main Street African American 9 Hunter Lewis 29 9th Avenue Caucasian 10 Jennifer Lownes 14c Avenue A African American 11 Anna A. Anderson 148d Avenue A African American 12 Gary Park 55 Park Avenue Asian American … … … … … 10548 Peter R. Martinez 404 Main Street Latino 10549 Faith B. Rogers 201 Cedar Street African American 10550 Will Billings 402 Buford Place Caucasian
  • 54. No Name Address Race Selected? 1 Burt T. Macklin 100 April Street Caucasian No 2 Andre Jones 302 Lyon Lane African American No 3 Michelle M. Lee 101 Jay Street Asian American No 4 Dan T. Waters 402 Smith Street Caucasian No 5 Molly McGuire 111 Main Street Caucasian Yes 6 Ron S. Swanson 0 Opsec Ave Caucasian No 7 Lisa Levine 3 Phillips Ave Caucasian No 8 Andrea Rice 14 Main Street African American No 9 Hunter Lewis 29 9th Avenue Caucasian 10 Jennifer Lownes 14c Avenue A African American 11 Anna A. Anderson 148d Avenue A African American 12 Gary Park 55 Park Avenue Asian American … … … … … 10548 Peter R. Martinez 404 Main Street Latino 10549 Faith B. Rogers 201 Cedar Street African American 10550 Will Billings 402 Buford Place Caucasian
  • 55. No Name Address Race Selected? 1 Burt T. Macklin 100 April Street Caucasian No 2 Andre Jones 302 Lyon Lane African American No 3 Michelle M. Lee 101 Jay Street Asian American No 4 Dan T. Waters 402 Smith Street Caucasian No 5 Molly McGuire 111 Main Street Caucasian Yes 6 Ron S. Swanson 0 Opsec Ave Caucasian No 7 Lisa Levine 3 Phillips Ave Caucasian No 8 Andrea Rice 14 Main Street African American No 9 Hunter Lewis 29 9th Avenue Caucasian No 10 Jennifer Lownes 14c Avenue A African American 11 Anna A. Anderson 148d Avenue A African American 12 Gary Park 55 Park Avenue Asian American … … … … … 10548 Peter R. Martinez 404 Main Street Latino 10549 Faith B. Rogers 201 Cedar Street African American 10550 Will Billings 402 Buford Place Caucasian
  • 56. No Name Address Race Selected? 1 Burt T. Macklin 100 April Street Caucasian No 2 Andre Jones 302 Lyon Lane African American No 3 Michelle M. Lee 101 Jay Street Asian American No 4 Dan T. Waters 402 Smith Street Caucasian No 5 Molly McGuire 111 Main Street Caucasian Yes 6 Ron S. Swanson 0 Opsec Ave Caucasian No 7 Lisa Levine 3 Phillips Ave Caucasian No 8 Andrea Rice 14 Main Street African American No 9 Hunter Lewis 29 9th Avenue Caucasian No 10 Jennifer Lownes 14c Avenue A African American Yes 11 Anna A. Anderson 148d Avenue A African American 12 Gary Park 55 Park Avenue Asian American … … … … … 10548 Peter R. Martinez 404 Main Street Latino 10549 Faith B. Rogers 201 Cedar Street African American 10550 Will Billings 402 Buford Place Caucasian
  • 57. No Name Address Race Selected? 1 Burt T. Macklin 100 April Street Caucasian No 2 Andre Jones 302 Lyon Lane African American No 3 Michelle M. Lee 101 Jay Street Asian American No 4 Dan T. Waters 402 Smith Street Caucasian No 5 Molly McGuire 111 Main Street Caucasian Yes 6 Ron S. Swanson 0 Opsec Ave Caucasian No 7 Lisa Levine 3 Phillips Ave Caucasian No 8 Andrea Rice 14 Main Street African American No 9 Hunter Lewis 29 9th Avenue Caucasian No 10 Jennifer Lownes 14c Avenue A African American Yes 11 Anna A. Anderson 148d Avenue A African American 12 Gary Park 55 Park Avenue Asian American … … … … … 10548 Peter R. Martinez 404 Main Street Latino 10549 Faith B. Rogers 201 Cedar Street African American 10550 Will Billings 402 Buford Place Caucasian
  • 58. No Name Address Race Selected? 1 Burt T. Macklin 100 April Street Caucasian No 2 Andre Jones 302 Lyon Lane African American No 3 Michelle M. Lee 101 Jay Street Asian American No 4 Dan T. Waters 402 Smith Street Caucasian No 5 Molly McGuire 111 Main Street Caucasian Yes 6 Ron S. Swanson 0 Opsec Ave Caucasian No 7 Lisa Levine 3 Phillips Ave Caucasian No 8 Andrea Rice 14 Main Street African American No 9 Hunter Lewis 29 9th Avenue Caucasian No 10 Jennifer Lownes 14c Avenue A African American Yes 11 Anna A. Anderson 148d Avenue A African American No 12 Gary Park 55 Park Avenue Asian American … … … … … 10548 Peter R. Martinez 404 Main Street Latino 10549 Faith B. Rogers 201 Cedar Street African American 10550 Will Billings 402 Buford Place Caucasian
  • 59. No Name Address Race Selected? 1 Burt T. Macklin 100 April Street Caucasian No 2 Andre Jones 302 Lyon Lane African American No 3 Michelle M. Lee 101 Jay Street Asian American No 4 Dan T. Waters 402 Smith Street Caucasian No 5 Molly McGuire 111 Main Street Caucasian Yes 6 Ron S. Swanson 0 Opsec Ave Caucasian No 7 Lisa Levine 3 Phillips Ave Caucasian No 8 Andrea Rice 14 Main Street African American No 9 Hunter Lewis 29 9th Avenue Caucasian No 10 Jennifer Lownes 14c Avenue A African American Yes 11 Anna A. Anderson 148d Avenue A African American No 12 Gary Park 55 Park Avenue Asian American No … … … … … 10548 Peter R. Martinez 404 Main Street Latino 10549 Faith B. Rogers 201 Cedar Street African American 10550 Will Billings 402 Buford Place Caucasian
  • 60. No Name Address Race Selected? 1 Burt T. Macklin 100 April Street Caucasian No 2 Andre Jones 302 Lyon Lane African American No 3 Michelle M. Lee 101 Jay Street Asian American No 4 Dan T. Waters 402 Smith Street Caucasian No 5 Molly McGuire 111 Main Street Caucasian Yes 6 Ron S. Swanson 0 Opsec Ave Caucasian No 7 Lisa Levine 3 Phillips Ave Caucasian No 8 Andrea Rice 14 Main Street African American No 9 Hunter Lewis 29 9th Avenue Caucasian No 10 Jennifer Lownes 14c Avenue A African American Yes 11 Anna A. Anderson 148d Avenue A African American No 12 Gary Park 55 Park Avenue Asian American No … … … … … 10548 Peter R. Martinez 404 Main Street Latino No 10549 Faith B. Rogers 201 Cedar Street African American 10550 Will Billings 402 Buford Place Caucasian
  • 61. No Name Address Race Selected? 1 Burt T. Macklin 100 April Street Caucasian No 2 Andre Jones 302 Lyon Lane African American No 3 Michelle M. Lee 101 Jay Street Asian American No 4 Dan T. Waters 402 Smith Street Caucasian No 5 Molly McGuire 111 Main Street Caucasian Yes 6 Ron S. Swanson 0 Opsec Ave Caucasian No 7 Lisa Levine 3 Phillips Ave Caucasian No 8 Andrea Rice 14 Main Street African American No 9 Hunter Lewis 29 9th Avenue Caucasian No 10 Jennifer Lownes 14c Avenue A African American Yes 11 Anna A. Anderson 148d Avenue A African American No 12 Gary Park 55 Park Avenue Asian American No … … … … … 10548 Peter R. Martinez 404 Main Street Latino No 10549 Faith B. Rogers 201 Cedar Street African American No 10550 Will Billings 402 Buford Place Caucasian
  • 62. No Name Address Race Selected? 1 Burt T. Macklin 100 April Street Caucasian No 2 Andre Jones 302 Lyon Lane African American No 3 Michelle M. Lee 101 Jay Street Asian American No 4 Dan T. Waters 402 Smith Street Caucasian No 5 Molly McGuire 111 Main Street Caucasian Yes 6 Ron S. Swanson 0 Opsec Ave Caucasian No 7 Lisa Levine 3 Phillips Ave Caucasian No 8 Andrea Rice 14 Main Street African American No 9 Hunter Lewis 29 9th Avenue Caucasian No 10 Jennifer Lownes 14c Avenue A African American Yes 11 Anna A. Anderson 148d Avenue A African American No 12 Gary Park 55 Park Avenue Asian American No … … … … … 10548 Peter R. Martinez 404 Main Street Latino No 10549 Faith B. Rogers 201 Cedar Street African American No 10550 Will Billings 402 Buford Place Caucasian Yes
  • 63. No Name Address Race Selected? 1 Burt T. Macklin 100 April Street Caucasian 2 Andre Jones 302 Lyon Lane African American 3 Michelle M. Lee 101 Jay Street Asian American 4 Dan T. Waters 402 Smith Street Caucasian 5 Molly McGuire 111 Main Street Caucasian 6 Ron S. Swanson 0 Opsec Ave Caucasian 7 Lisa Levine 3 Phillips Ave Caucasian 8 Andrea Rice 14 Main Street African American 9 Hunter Lewis 29 9th Avenue Caucasian 10 Jennifer Lownes 14c Avenue A African American 11 Anna A. Anderson 148d Avenue A African American 12 Gary Park 55 Park Avenue Asian American … … … … 10548 Peter R. Martinez 404 Main Street Latino 10549 Faith B. Rogers 201 Cedar Street African American 10550 Will Billings 402 Buford Place Caucasian
  • 64. No Name Address Race Selected? 2 Andre Jones 302 Lyon Lane African American 8 Andrea Rice 14 Main Street African American 10 Jennifer Lownes 14c Avenue A African American 11 Anna A. Anderson 148d Avenue A African American … … … … 10549 Faith B. Rogers 201 Cedar Street African American
  • 65. No Name Address Race Selected? 2 Andre Jones 302 Lyon Lane African American No 8 Andrea Rice 14 Main Street African American No 10 Jennifer Lownes 14c Avenue A African American Yes 11 Anna A. Anderson 148d Avenue A African American No … … … … 10549 Faith B. Rogers 201 Cedar Street African American Yes
  • 83. DHS
  • 85. What We Have Learned • Representative estimates typically require probability sampling • Probability sampling is in practice most commonly performed with lists from the entire population called a sampling frame • Sampling can be stratified by dividing the frame into mutually exclusive and exhaustive separate frames for different subpopulations • You can still form a representative estimate for a subpopulation even if the selected units from it are scattered across frames for different strata • In practice sampling is usually multistage
  • 89. The Sample Size Objective 112 Clusters
  • 91. Now, we know an important survey prior: History suggests that we will find dengue cases in only around 4.9 percent of clusters.
  • 92. Let’s Talk Costs $200: The cost to monitor each selected study cluster $2000: The fieldwork cost per cluster with a dengue outbreak This means an expected cost per cluster of $200+.049 x $2000 ≈$298
  • 93. Uh Oh At that price, we can afford to select only $300,000/$298≈1006 clusters From these we would expect only 1006 X .049≈49 clusters to have a dengue outbreak.
  • 94. Even worse: We are 112-49=63 clusters short!!!
  • 109. My name is Aedes Aegypti.
  • 110. I really like to bite.
  • 111. But I’m also kinda lazy
  • 116. But can we exploit this with GIS?
  • 121. Sampling Units Risk Factor Risk Factor Risk Factor
  • 122. Sampling Units Risk Factor Risk Factor Risk Factor Risk Factor
  • 123. Sampling Units Risk Factor Risk Factor Risk Factor Risk Factor
  • 126. Sampling Units Risk Factor Risk Factor Risk Factor Risk Factor
  • 134. Uh Oh
  • 149. 46 Feet 59 Feet 33 Feet 59 Feet
  • 150. 46 Feet 59 Feet 33 Feet 33 Feet 59 Feet
  • 151. 46 Feet 59 Feet 33 Feet 33 Feet 46 Feet 59 Feet
  • 152. 46 Feet 59 Feet 33 Feet 33 Feet 30 Feet 46 Feet 59 Feet
  • 153. 46 Feet 59 Feet 33 Feet 33 Feet 30 Feet 46 Feet 59 Feet 39 Feet
  • 154. 46 Feet 59 Feet 33 Feet 33 Feet 30 Feet 46 Feet 59 Feet 39 Feet 52 Feet
  • 155. 46 Feet 59 Feet 33 Feet 33 Feet 30 Feet 46 Feet 59 Feet 39 Feet 52 Feet 49 Feet
  • 156. 46 Feet 59 Feet 33 Feet 33 Feet 30 Feet 46 Feet 59 Feet 39 Feet 52 Feet 49 Feet 82 Feet
  • 157. 33 Feet 39 Feet 59 Feet 52 Feet 49 Feet 33 Feet 46 Feet
  • 162. Sampling Units Risk Factor Risk Factor Risk Factor Risk Factor
  • 163. Sampling Units Risk Factor Risk Factor Risk Factor Risk Factor
  • 169. Sampling Units Risk Factor Risk Factor Risk Factor Risk Factor
  • 170. Sampling Units Risk Factor Risk Factor Risk Factor Risk Factor
  • 171. Sampling Units Risk Factor Risk Factor Risk Factor Risk Factor
  • 174. Two Strata of Clusters • Low Risk: 95% of clusters have a Low Risk of Dengue Outbreak (2% risk of outbreak during study) • High Risk: 5% of clusters have a High Risk of Dengue Outbreak (60% risk of outbreak during study) Note that this is consistent with 4.9% overall risk across clusters: .95 X .02 + .05 X .6 ≈ .049
  • 179. The Power of Sampling and GIS One Possible $300,000 Scheme: Sample 180 High Risk clusters with expected yield of 108 with dengue outbreaks AND Sample 200 Low Risk clusters with a expected yield of 4 dengue outbreaks
  • 180. The Payoff • Without Stratification: We expect to observe 49 clusters with dengue outbreaks • With Stratification: We expect to observe 112 clusters with dengue outbreaks
  • 181. Let’s consider a counterfactual: how much survey budget we would need to obtain 112 dengue clusters without stratification into high and low risk clusters? 112 .049 𝑋 $298 = $681,142.86
  • 182. Let’s consider a counterfactual: how much survey budget we would need to obtain 112 dengue clusters without stratification into high and low risk clusters? 112 .049 𝑋 $298 = $681,142.86
  • 183. Let’s consider a counterfactual: how much survey budget we would need to obtain 112 dengue clusters without stratification into high and low risk clusters? 112 .049 𝑋 $298 = $681,142.86
  • 184. Let’s consider a counterfactual: how much survey budget we would need to obtain 112 dengue clusters without stratification into high and low risk clusters? 112 .049 𝑋 $298 = $681,142.86
  • 185. Let’s consider a counterfactual: how much survey budget we would need to obtain 112 dengue clusters without stratification into high and low risk clusters? 112 .049 𝑋 $298 = $681,142.86
  • 186. Fieldwork Costs to Get 112 Clusters with Outbreak With GIS Without GIS $ 300,000.00 $681,142.86
  • 188. A GIS Isn’t Free… It Costs Something to Build One
  • 189. Difference in survey fieldwork costs Without GIS: $681,142.86 With GIS: $300,000.00 $381,142.86
  • 199. “Big Ideas” We were trying to sample from a subpopulation
  • 200. “Big Ideas” That subpopulation had a predictable spatial pattern to its distribution
  • 201. “Big Ideas” We used a GIS as a framework to predict where the subpopulation was likely to be
  • 202. “Big Ideas” We then stratified the frame for the study area into high and low “risk” sampling units
  • 203. The Point This gave us the ability to sample far more from the subpopulation for a given survey cost.
  • 204. The Point As long as it is not too expensive to build, the GIS can reduce the costs of obtaining a sample of a given size from the subpopulation.
  • 205. Principles GIS and Sampling Full list in publication.
  • 210. Have a clear protocol for GIS construction
  • 211. •Automate as much as possible
  • 213. Yet be aware that the world is full of surprises
  • 218. There is more spatial data than ever before and GIS software is easier to use than it has ever been.
  • 219. There is also more data in general available than ever before.
  • 220. GIS can bring all of that data together to create cheaper, better surveys.
  • 221. MEASURE Evaluation Publication: GIS and Sampling Available at MEASURE Evaluation web site. measureevaluation.org/publications
  • 222. MEASURE Evaluation is funded by the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) under terms of Cooperative Agreement AID-OAA-L-14-00004 and implemented by the Carolina Population Center, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill in partnership with Futures Group, ICF International, John Snow, Inc., Management Sciences for Health, and Tulane University. The views expressed in this presentation do not necessarily reflect the views of USAID or the United States government. www.measureevaluation.org