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New England Tornado Hazard
Regional Climatology & Risk
Mary D. Stampone
Department of Geography
New Hampshire State Climat...
National Tornado Statistics
Time-Series
Tornado
Statistics by US
State
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/#data
New England
state...
National Tornado Statistics
Record Tornado
New Hampshire
July 28, 2008
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/gyx/
Just before noon, a
to...
New England Tornadoes
New England
Tornado
Influences
Lewis (2007)
Public
misconceptions
about tornado
influences
strengthe...
New England Tornadoes
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/
Prior to the 2011 Joplin
tornado, the Worchester
MA tornado of 1953 was...
New England Tornadoes
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/
A supercell thunderstorm
produced three
tornadoes including an
EF3 torn...
National Tornado Statistics
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/#data
Area-Weighted
Time-Series
Tornado
Statistics by US
State
New...
National Tornado Statistics
Tornado
Data
(1951-2011)
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/#data
Tornado data for 1951 to 2010 obtai...
New England Tornado Climatology
New England
Tornado
Climatology
(1951-2010)
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/#data
A lack of co...
New England Tornado Climatology
New Hampshire
Tornado
Climatology
(1951-2010)
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/#data
An unusual...
CT MA ME NH RI VT
New England Tornado Climatology
New England Tornado
Climatology
(1981-2010)
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/...
New England Tornado Climatology
New England Tornado Climatology
(1981-2010)
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/#data
New England Tornado Climatology
New England
Tornado
Climatology
(1981-2010)
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/#data
Tornadoes oc...
New England Tornado Climatology
New England
Tornado
Climatology
(1981-2010)
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/#data
Tornadoes oc...
New England Tornado Climatology
New England
Tornado
Climatology
(1981-2010)
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/#data
Locations of...
New England Population Distribution
Distribution of
New England
Urban Centers
http://2010.census.gov/2010census/data/
Sout...
New England Population Distribution
Distribution of
New England
Urban Centers
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/#data
Parts of s...
-2
-1.5
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
-2 -1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2
TornadoOccurrence
Tornado Impact
New England Tornado Hazard
To...
-2
-1.5
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
-2 -1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2
TornadoOccurrence
Tornado Impact
Total hazard is a
function of...
New England Tornado Hazard
Total Tornado Hazard for
New England Counties
(High/Low Continuum)
Densely populated counties o...
*
*
* *
**
New England Tornado Hazard
Total Tornado Hazard for
New England Counties
(Product of Occurrence
and Impact)
htt...
Next Step:
Beyond knowing where tornadoes are most likely to occur and the areas
where the impact will be highest, it is i...
Resources:
 Storm Prediction Center (SPC) Storm
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/#data
 US Census Bureau (2010) http://2010.c...
Questions?
New Hampshire State Climate Office
The New Hampshire State Climate Office (NHSCO) resides within the Department...
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"New England Tornado Hazard: Climatology and Risk" by MD Stampone

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Mary D. Stampone
Department of Geography
New Hampshire State Climate Office
University of New Hampshire

Presentation to the Plymouth State University
Environmental Science & Policy Colloquium.

Reference:
Stampone M.D. (2012) New England Tornado Hazard: Climatology and Risk – Plymouth State University Environmental Science Colloquium, Plymouth, NH, September 19, 2012

Published in: Education, Travel, Technology
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"New England Tornado Hazard: Climatology and Risk" by MD Stampone

  1. 1. New England Tornado Hazard Regional Climatology & Risk Mary D. Stampone Department of Geography New Hampshire State Climate Office University of New Hampshire Presentation for the Plymouth State University Environmental Science & Policy Colloquium September 19, 2012
  2. 2. National Tornado Statistics Time-Series Tornado Statistics by US State http://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/#data New England states have the fewest average annual tornado occurrence of the lower 48.
  3. 3. National Tornado Statistics Record Tornado New Hampshire July 28, 2008 http://www.erh.noaa.gov/gyx/ Just before noon, a tornado touched down near Deerfield, NH. This tornado cut a 50 mile path over 80 minutes to the Maine border
  4. 4. New England Tornadoes New England Tornado Influences Lewis (2007) Public misconceptions about tornado influences strengthen belief that “tornadoes do not happen here.” Tornado Origins (1981-2010)
  5. 5. New England Tornadoes http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/ Prior to the 2011 Joplin tornado, the Worchester MA tornado of 1953 was the deadliest US tornado since 1950. Deadliest US Tornadoes: Worchester, MA June 9, 1953
  6. 6. New England Tornadoes http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/ A supercell thunderstorm produced three tornadoes including an EF3 tornado that traveled 39 miles from Westfield to Charlton, MA. Tornado Outbreak Springfield, MA June 1, 2011 http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/NaturalHazards/view.php?id=50854
  7. 7. National Tornado Statistics http://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/#data Area-Weighted Time-Series Tornado Statistics by US State New England states have the fewest average annual tornado occurrence east of the Rockies.
  8. 8. National Tornado Statistics Tornado Data (1951-2011) http://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/#data Tornado data for 1951 to 2010 obtained from the Storm Prediction Center “Storm Data” publication for NCDC. Dataset Includes: Location Path Lengths Time Magnitude Injuries/Fatalities Damages
  9. 9. New England Tornado Climatology New England Tornado Climatology (1951-2010) http://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/#data A lack of consistency in older tornado reports reduces confidence in the accuracy of the data.0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 1951-60 1961-70 1971-80 1981-90 1991-00 2001-10 TotalTornadoReports Decade CT MA ME NH RI VT * *RI - No reports prior to 1971. *
  10. 10. New England Tornado Climatology New Hampshire Tornado Climatology (1951-2010) http://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/#data An unusually high number of tornado reports from 1961 to 1973. 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 1951-60 1961-70 1971-80 1981-90 1991-00 2001-10 TotalNumberofEvents Unknown F0 F1 F2 F3 F4 F5
  11. 11. CT MA ME NH RI VT New England Tornado Climatology New England Tornado Climatology (1981-2010) http://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/#data The most recent climate normal period is of reasonable length and consistency for analysis. 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 TotalTornadoReports Decade 1981-90 1991-00 2000-10
  12. 12. New England Tornado Climatology New England Tornado Climatology (1981-2010) http://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/#data
  13. 13. New England Tornado Climatology New England Tornado Climatology (1981-2010) http://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/#data Tornadoes occur most often during warm season from May through September.0 5 10 15 20 25 TotalTornadoReports CT MA ME NH RI VT
  14. 14. New England Tornado Climatology New England Tornado Climatology (1981-2010) http://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/#data Tornadoes occur most often during the afternoon hours and rarely occur over night. 0 5 10 15 20 25 TotalTornadoReports CT MA ME NH RI VT
  15. 15. New England Tornado Climatology New England Tornado Climatology (1981-2010) http://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/#data Locations of New England tornado origins. Highest highest tornado density occurs over southeastern CT. Tornadoes per 100 km2 1-2 1 <1
  16. 16. New England Population Distribution Distribution of New England Urban Centers http://2010.census.gov/2010census/data/ Southern New England is part of the densely populated northeast corridor. Image Source: Annemarie Schneider/NASA Landsat Distribution of Urban Surfaces (2010) Providence Boston Worchester Connecticut River Valley
  17. 17. New England Population Distribution Distribution of New England Urban Centers http://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/#data Parts of southern New England’s most densely populated urban/suburban landscapes are located within the areas of highest tornado occurrence. Total hazard is a function of event occurrence and potential impact Population Density & Tornado Tracks Population Density
  18. 18. -2 -1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 -2 -1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 TornadoOccurrence Tornado Impact New England Tornado Hazard Total Tornado Hazard for New England Counties (High/Low Continuum) http://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/#data Tornado occurrence calculated as an index accounting for tornado count and intensity (SPC). Impact assessed as the people/property that could be impacted by a tornado (US Census Bureau 2010). Median Median http://2010.census.gov/2010census/data/ High Occurrence/Low Impact High Occurrence/High Impact Low Occurrence/Low Impact Low Occurrence/High Impact
  19. 19. -2 -1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 -2 -1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 TornadoOccurrence Tornado Impact Total hazard is a function of event occurrence and potential impact New England Tornado Hazard Total Tornado Hazard for New England Counties (High/Low Continuum) http://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/#data Median Median 20 Counties (30%) 13 Counties (19%) 13 Counties (19%) 21 Counties (30%) Providence New Haven Fairfield Norfolk Windham http://2010.census.gov/2010census/data/
  20. 20. New England Tornado Hazard Total Tornado Hazard for New England Counties (High/Low Continuum) Densely populated counties of southern New England coincide with the region’s highest tornado occurrence. These areas have the highest hazard relative to the rest of the region. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/#data http://2010.census.gov/2010census/data/
  21. 21. * * * * ** New England Tornado Hazard Total Tornado Hazard for New England Counties (Product of Occurrence and Impact) http://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/#data Tornado probability of occurrence multiplied by the probability of impact humans/infrastructure. Evaluated as a product may overstate the relative hazard. * * * * * * * * * * * *
  22. 22. Next Step: Beyond knowing where tornadoes are most likely to occur and the areas where the impact will be highest, it is important to understand the mechanisms that lead to the formation of tornadoes. Studies indicate areas of enhanced convection and increased storm frequency during the warm season that coincide with areas of highest tornado occurrence (Lombardo & Colle 2010, 2011; Waslua et. al 2002; Murray & Colle 2011).  Prepare database of detailed weather observations (where available) for the time of each tornado.  Compare the weather characteristics during each event to the general atmosphere conditions associated with regional convective and other severe thunderstorm events.
  23. 23. Resources:  Storm Prediction Center (SPC) Storm http://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/#data  US Census Bureau (2010) http://2010.census.gov/2010census/data/  Dixon, R.W., A.E. Mercer, J. Choi, and J.S. Allen (2011) Tornado Risk Analysis: Is Dixie Alley and Extension of Tornado Alley? Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 92(4), 433-441  Dixon, R.W. and T.W Moore (2012) Tornado Vulnerability in Texas. Weather, Climate, and Society. 59-67. doi: 10.1175/WCAS-D-11- 00004.1  Lewis, T.R. (2006) The Tornado Hazard In Southern New England: History, Characteristics, Student and Teacher Perceptions. Journal of Geography 105, 258-266.
  24. 24. Questions? New Hampshire State Climate Office The New Hampshire State Climate Office (NHSCO) resides within the Department of Geography at the University of New Hampshire. The NHSCO is officially recognized by the American Association of State Climatologists and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). http://www.unh.edu/stateclimatologist/ Follow on Twitter at: https://twitter.com/nh_sco

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