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Post-HR1109 Scenarios


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A presentation given by Dinky Soliman at the CON ASK: Forum on HR1109, Possibilities and Challenges organized by Ateneo School of Government (Pugadlawin,Kaya Natin! and Poder), Simbahang Lingkod ng Bayan, Political Science Dept. ADMU; Sanggunian, The Assembly,Development Society,OSCI, ADSA and OSA

Published in: News & Politics


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Post-HR1109 Scenarios

  1. 1. Scenario 1 • House of Representative (HOR) will set the rules and procedures and proceed to amend the constitution acting now as a Constituent Assembly.After a period of time they bring the amended constitution to COMELEC to request for a plebiscite. A case is brought to the Supreme Court and the Supreme Court decides that a Senate less CONASS is valid.
  2. 2. Scenario 1 • Plebiscite continues, it is a yes victory and the election of May 10, 2010 is an election for a parliamentary form of government. GMA runs on a district in Pampanga. She wins and becomes eventually the Prime Minister.This scenario assumes that the outraged and protest from the citizenry is weak
  3. 3. Scenario 2 • HOR convenes as a constituent assembly; a case is filed in the Supreme Court and SC declares that Congress is a bicameral body therefore the Senate is needed. Election fever catches up.A presidential election is held in May 10, 2010.This scenario assumes that there is significant citizen's lobby to stop CONASS and chahcha. The citizen's actions is a major influence in the assessment and judgement of the justices in the Supreme Court
  4. 4. Scenario 3 • HOR convenes as a constituent assembly, there is building outrage from the citizens and more street actions are undertaken.Malacanang rides on the anger of the people and organizes violent incidents that will then be the basis for emergency rule. This scenario assumes that citizen's actions are not organized and disciplined which creates the conditions for infiltration and manipulated violence from the enemies of democracy
  5. 5. Scenario 4 HOR convenes as a constituent assembly; a case is filed in the Supreme Court, the debate and deliberation in the Supreme Court takes a long time and it gets overtaken by election on May 10, 2010. GMA runs for Congress in Pampanga she wins, the administration candidates win too. They get the Supreme Court go ahead and convenes a Constituent Assembly, converts Congress into a parliament and GMA is elected as Prime Minister.
  6. 6. Scenario 4 This scenario assumes that the 2010 election is dominated by the allies of GMA and her candidates wins. This scenario assumes that transactional politics was the dominant practice and cheating, vote buying and killing will be the norm in the election of 2010. This means the citizen's action was weak and we failed to educate and mobilize active citizenship.