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  2. Looking back to look forward
  3. 1976 All those things we lived without <ul><li>Fax </li></ul><ul><li>PCs </li></ul><ul><li>PC Software </li></ul><ul><li>Walkman </li></ul><ul><li>Cable TV </li></ul><ul><li>Video Games </li></ul><ul><li>Cell Phones </li></ul><ul><li>Internet </li></ul><ul><li>LAN/Wans </li></ul><ul><li>USA Today </li></ul><ul><li>DVD </li></ul><ul><li>Microsoft </li></ul><ul><li>Direct TV </li></ul><ul><li>CD Players </li></ul><ul><li>VCRs </li></ul>Did you predict you would need any of them? Or that 20 years later you couldn't live without them many of them ?
  4. Most of the winners didn’t exist or were laggards <ul><li>Compaq </li></ul><ul><li>Dell </li></ul><ul><li>Gateway </li></ul><ul><li>Intuit (Quicken) </li></ul><ul><li>TCI, MTV, ESPN </li></ul><ul><li>Video Games </li></ul><ul><li>Novell, Cisco </li></ul><ul><li>Yahoo, Amazon </li></ul><ul><li>Microsoft </li></ul><ul><li>Direct TV </li></ul><ul><li>Asian Manufacturers of CE </li></ul>Do you think the next 20 years are going to be any different ?
  5. We are entering a New Age!
  6. The Age of.... Defragmentation of Media All Media is becoming a stream of digital bits 00100101110110100110011100011100001111100011011000111000111000101000000110001100101110110
  7. Goodbye Analog <ul><li>VHS Tapes </li></ul><ul><li>Television </li></ul><ul><li>Newsletters </li></ul><ul><li>Cable </li></ul><ul><li>Records </li></ul><ul><li>Cellular Phones </li></ul><ul><li>Newspapers </li></ul><ul><li>DVD </li></ul><ul><li>HDTV/Broadband </li></ul><ul><li>Email </li></ul><ul><li>Digital Cable </li></ul><ul><li>CDs </li></ul><ul><li>Digital Phones </li></ul><ul><li>WebPages </li></ul>Hello Digital
  8. In a Digital World Bits don’t care if they are Audio Video Animation or ?
  9. Maybe we need to rethink some things….
  10. What is Media ? <ul><li>It used to be defined by its specturm </li></ul><ul><ul><li>TV by channels, Radio by stations </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Now its all becoming digital </li></ul><ul><ul><li>All digital media is just a stream of bits </li></ul></ul><ul><li>All channels are just bandwidth </li></ul><ul><ul><li>There is lots available to anyone </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Consumers will be attracted to the most compelling offerings </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Content Providers will have to be distribution arbiters </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Where is the audience ? </li></ul></ul>#1
  11. What about Content ? <ul><li>It used to be defined by its packaging capacity </li></ul><ul><ul><li>CD - 62 Minutes / VHS - 1 Movie </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>DVD - 3.7gb </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Not in a digital world </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Broadband = consumption on demand </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Pick what you want when you want it </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Buffet or Ala Carte </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Content is now defined by how long it takes to download or its quality </li></ul>#2
  12. What about Content Distribution ? <ul><li>Content Distribution used to be defined by its windows </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Network - Syndication </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Theatrical - Hotel - Video - Cable </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Not for long </li></ul><ul><ul><li>New forms of distribution will appear </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Live, OnDemand, Downloadable </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Broadband Internet Users will demand what they want, when they want it. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Hold on to old notions of “windows” and die </li></ul></ul><ul><li>I wouldn’t be building 7 years out or later syndication dollars into any TV show funding plans </li></ul>#3
  13. What is a Broadcaster ? <ul><li>Every company is a broadcaster </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Dell, GM, Intel, P&G… </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Everyone is a broadcaster </li></ul><ul><ul><li>For 5k a month you can reach a niche audience </li></ul></ul><ul><li>There will be 100ks of video channels within 5 years </li></ul><ul><li>People will watch Internet video interchangeably with traditional TV </li></ul>#4
  14. Content Explosion by 2001 <ul><li>Creation tools are dropping leading to user creation of zillions of hours </li></ul><ul><li>Your next door neighbor will be your competition </li></ul><ul><li>Millions of hours of dusty content will find life </li></ul><ul><li>Broadcasters must position themselves as the leading aggregators or possibly be pushed aside ! </li></ul># 5
  15. Audience Fragmentation <ul><li>Unlimited content means ultimate fragmentation - Personal Channels </li></ul><ul><li>People go to the net for Information, News, Entertainment and Passions </li></ul><ul><ul><li>You can find anything on the net and people look for things they cant find elsewhere </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Is grandma going to watch suzy’s soccer video for the 15th time or Touched by an Angel ? </li></ul></ul># 6
  16. Can the TV Networks win on the Net ? <ul><li>Nope - Not the Big 6 or Cable Networks </li></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>cant drive as much traffic as everyone had hoped </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><li>Their Websites are being “Cablized </li></ul><ul><ul><li>You want a big TV Bang - you go Network programs </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>You want a big internet bang you go Yahoo or AOL </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Can’t serve 2 masters and succeed </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Perfect Example - Why not stream CNBC ? </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Networks won’t catch up </li></ul># 7
  17. The Little Kid Effect <ul><li>With in 5 years there will be a new media type,that we can’t imagine today invented by a child under the age of 15 </li></ul><ul><li>He or She didn’t want to do homework, so they invented the new killer app </li></ul><ul><li>It will change the way we live our lives more than we have seen in the last 20 years </li></ul># 8