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  2. Jeopardy
  3. <ul><li>According to the Do-It-Yourself Encyclopedia, their installation and service were for a long time considered a job to be attempted only by skilled technicians </li></ul># #1 What are TVs
  4. <ul><li>This analyst was talking about what industry when he said “Wall St makes a mistake every time it looks at earnings based on current accounting” </li></ul># #2 What is the cable industry according to Paul Kagan in 1970
  5. <ul><li>Name the CEO who said ”The scheme of this company is to go contrary to what they teach in business school as best practice, which is earn money, pay taxes and pay dividends !” </li></ul># #3 Who is John Malone of TCI Cable to Business Week in 1981
  6. <ul><li>More than 100k users were blocked from getting this record setting event in 1999 </li></ul># #4 What was the Super Bowl. More than 100k cable viewers in Georgia lost their feeds for at least part of the game due to cable system failures
  7. You Just Never know History has a way of repeating itself
  8. Looking back to look forward
  9. 1976 All those things we lived without <ul><li>Fax </li></ul><ul><li>PCs </li></ul><ul><li>PC Software </li></ul><ul><li>Walkman </li></ul><ul><li>Cable TV </li></ul><ul><li>Video Games </li></ul><ul><li>Cell Phones </li></ul><ul><li>Internet </li></ul><ul><li>LAN/Wans </li></ul><ul><li>USA Today </li></ul><ul><li>DVD </li></ul><ul><li>Microsoft </li></ul><ul><li>Direct TV </li></ul><ul><li>CD Players </li></ul><ul><li>VCRs </li></ul>Did you predict you would need any of them? Or that 20 years later you couldn't live without them many of them ?
  10. Most of the winners didn’t exist or were laggards <ul><li>Compaq </li></ul><ul><li>Dell </li></ul><ul><li>Gateway </li></ul><ul><li>Intuit (Quicken) </li></ul><ul><li>TCI, MTV, ESPN </li></ul><ul><li>Video Games </li></ul><ul><li>Novell, Cisco </li></ul><ul><li>Yahoo, Amazon </li></ul><ul><li>Microsoft </li></ul><ul><li>Direct TV </li></ul><ul><li>Asian Manufacturers of CE </li></ul>Do you think the next 20 years are going to be any different ?
  11. We are Entering a New Age!
  12. The Age of.... Defragmentation of Media All Media is becoming a stream of digital bits 00100101110110100110011100011100001111100011011000111000111000101000000110001100101110110
  13. Goodbye Analog <ul><li>VHS Tapes </li></ul><ul><li>Television </li></ul><ul><li>Newsletters </li></ul><ul><li>Cable </li></ul><ul><li>Radio </li></ul><ul><li>Cellular Phones </li></ul><ul><li>Newspapers </li></ul><ul><li>DVD </li></ul><ul><li>HDTV </li></ul><ul><li>Email </li></ul><ul><li>Digital Cable </li></ul><ul><li>Satellite Radio </li></ul><ul><li>Digital Phones </li></ul><ul><li>The Drudge Report </li></ul>Hello Digital
  14. In a Digital World Bits don’t care if they are Audio Video Animation or ?
  15. Maybe we need to rethink some things….
  16. What is Radio ? <ul><li>Is it still defined by spectrum OR ? </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Is it a kid with a realaudio server and a CD Player ? </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Is it 2000 channels of internet audio from ? </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Is it a football game delivered via cellphones to a car </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Is radio still radio if there are pictures or video ? </li></ul>#1
  17. What is a Broadcaster ? <ul><li>Every company is a broadcaster offering multimedia presentations </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Dell, GM, Intel, P&G… </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Self Broadcasting will be very cheap </li></ul><ul><ul><li>For 5k a month you reach a niche audience that used to watch your shows </li></ul></ul><ul><li>There will be millions of video channels within 5 years </li></ul><ul><li>People will watch Internet video interchangably with traditional TV </li></ul>#2
  18. Audience Fragmentation <ul><li>Unlimited content means ultimate fragmentation - Personal Channels </li></ul><ul><li>People go to the net for Information, News, Entertainment and Passions </li></ul><ul><ul><li>You can find anything on the net and people look for things they cant find elsewhere </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>People will say No to ER if they can watch their favorite ??? video whenever they way </li></ul></ul># 3
  19. Platform Independence <ul><li>Broadcasters must become platform independent content providers </li></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Internet, DTV, Download, User Integrated Content ? </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Stop thinking linear and think parallel </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>All content is usable on demand - stop wasting it </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Aggregate Hours = Shelf Space </li></ul></ul># 4
  20. Content Explosion by 2001 <ul><li>Creation tools are dropping leading to user creation of zillions of hours </li></ul><ul><li>Millions of hours of dusty content will find life </li></ul><ul><li>The challenge will be how to manage and display it. Media Asset Management systems will explode </li></ul><ul><li>Broadcasters must learn to be leading aggregators of these sources </li></ul># 5
  21. The Net is TV and TV is the Net <ul><li>Today’s Kids don’t distinguish, they want to be entertained & informed </li></ul><ul><li>Your Video Monitor will connect to a computer connected to a digital port </li></ul><ul><li>You will tell the computer what channel OR website you want content to come from and if its right now or later </li></ul><ul><li>That computer will receive digital media and decide how and when to play it </li></ul># 6
  22. DTV is coming fast <ul><li>100% of PC Monitors are DTV compatible </li></ul><ul><li>PCs will look like VCRs </li></ul><ul><ul><li>HDTV Decoders will be standard like DVD has become today </li></ul></ul><ul><li>17mm people have PCs/TVs in the same room. They will combine </li></ul><ul><ul><li>But the PC will win over set top boxes because personal creativity is the driving force. </li></ul></ul># 7
  23. DTV is coming fast <ul><li>Websites and Channels will be the same thing to our kids. You will tell the computer what channel OR website you want content to come from and when </li></ul><ul><li>That computer will receive digital media and you will decide how and when to play it </li></ul># 7
  24. New Revenue Models <ul><li>The Killer Revenue Model hasn’t been invented yet. </li></ul><ul><li>Revenue per user will be more important than ratings when a 1 is huge. </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Lifestyle value of the content is more important w/interactivity </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Think yield for your digital spectrum. Downloading the latest CD or software package might more sense then a tv show </li></ul># 8
  25. Selling is a core competency <ul><li>Are you a company ready to sell things in 2 years that don’t exist today </li></ul><ul><li>Are you looking for new digital products to sell that differentiate you </li></ul><ul><li>Are you experimenting with your salesforce at all ? </li></ul><ul><li>Are you willing to invest in a NTR salesforce ? </li></ul># 9
  26. The Little Kid Effect <ul><li>With in 5 years there will be a new media type,that we can’t imagine today invented by a child under the age of 15 </li></ul><ul><li>He or She didn’t want to do homework, so they invented the new killer app </li></ul><ul><li>It will change the way we interact with the net </li></ul># 10