Socialcast Return Over Influence Web2.0 Coutinho

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Presentation at the WAA meeting regarding metrics for Socialcast, a new communication model, with some comments about Web 2.0 adoption in Brazil

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Socialcast Return Over Influence Web2.0 Coutinho

  1. 1. Return Over Influence Socialcast Metrics – The Brazilian case Web Analytics Association São Paulo, Brazil, October 2009 marcelo.coutinho@post.harvard.edu Twitter: @mcoutinho
  2. 2. Overview • Social Networks on the Internet • Digital Social Networks in Brazil • The case for advertising – Brands and Social Capital • Old AND New Metrics • Debate marcelo.coutinho@post.harvard.edu
  3. 3. marcelo.coutinho@post.harvard.edu
  4. 4. Social Networks on the Internet Sociable Media, MIT Media Lab
  5. 5. Social Networks are older than the Internet… marcelo.coutinho@post.harvard.edu
  6. 6. But the web amplify their reach marcelo.coutinho@post.harvard.edu
  7. 7. marcelo.coutinho@post.harvard.edu
  8. 8. South Korea Russia 9.7m Denmark 2.4m 0.3m UK Poland 4.5m Netherlands 1.6m 1.1m Germany USA CANADA 1.6m France 5.2m Czech Romania 0.6m 0.5m China Japan Hungary Switzerland 14m 26.4m 4m 0.5m Austria 0.1m 0.4m Greece 0.3mTurkey 43m Italy 2m Pakistan Spain 3.4m 0.97m Taiwan 4.5m 4.2m MEXICO 4.1m Philippines % Write their own India Hong Kong 2.4m blog 1m 8.7m 60%+ BRAZIL 40% -60% Australia 7.6m 1m 30%-40% <30% Source: Universal McCann Social Media Tracker March 2008
  9. 9. South Korea Russia 9.4m 6.1m Netherlands 3.7m Poland UK Denmark 0.6m 2.7m 11m CANADA Germany Romania Czech 1.4m 0.8m China Japan 8.2m 12.4m USA 4.2m France 4.2m Switzerland Hungary 1m Turkey 39m 43m 0.9m Austria 0.6m 3.3m Greece Italy Pakistan Spain 0.5m 1.8m 3.9m Taiwan 4.7m 3.9m India MEXICO 5.1m 11.7m Hong Kong 1m Philippines 3m % joined a BRAZIL social network 11.4m 70%+ Australia 2.6m 60% -69% 50%-59% <49% Source: Universal McCann Social Media Tracker March 2008
  10. 10. Digital Social Networks in Brazil Revista Época, 10/3/2008 marcelo.coutinho@post.harvard.edu
  11. 11. Brazil is the leading country in time spent on the internet marcelo.coutinho@post.harvard.edu
  12. 12. Member Communities usage marcelo.coutinho@post.harvard.edu
  13. 13. Most Popular Categories - BR Source: IBOPE
  14. 14. marcelo.coutinho@post.harvard.edu
  15. 15. Time Spent on “social usage” on the internet in Brazil is almost 50% higher than in US 11,8 8,0 3,6 3,5 3,7 3,5 1,7 Source: State of the Media Survey 2009 / Deloitte
  16. 16. Q - What does it mean for advertising? A – First, that a costumer can generate in a week more GRPs than you can buy in a year… marcelo.coutinho@post.harvard.edu
  17. 17. …and second, this can cost you a lot of money Source: Wired
  18. 18. … even if you are a bar in São Paulo marcelo.coutinho@post.harvard.edu
  19. 19. Source: Trust Barometer, Edelman, 2008
  20. 20. Digital social networks will change the way that we relate to the news, brands and products NP Radio Source: BBC
  21. 21. It is not the end of “Broadcast”, but it is the birth of “Socialcast”
  22. 22. marcelo.coutinho@post.harvard.edu
  23. 23. The death of the “opinion leader” or the birth of the “opinion climate”? Source: Colective Dynamics Group, Columbia University
  24. 24. The real value generated by brands and the consumer > facts Consumers recognize (and search for) the trophies related to their values and brands (media, websites, social networks, etc) And happily “socialcast” these values to their own networks marcelo.coutinho@post.harvard.edu
  25. 25. Source: Forrester Research, 2009.
  26. 26. A new type of market for Brands: Social Capital and Social Currency The trade for Facts Trust Benefits Emotional Satisfaction Communication Social 1. 2. Altruistic Competitive Social Capital Currency Operational Financial Expertise (reduction of Transaction costs) Adapted from Bourdieu, 1997; Goshal, 1998; Scheinkman, 2000
  27. 27. Broadcast Metrics can be applied to a Socialcast world? marcelo.coutinho@post.harvard.edu
  28. 28. Yes, but with care Quantitative Metrics - IAB • Exposition (Broadcast) • Visitors / Unique Visitors • Visits • Time Spent • Interactions (Socialcast) • Uploads / Downloads • Messages • Comments / Answers / Votes • Friends • Incoming Links • Members marcelo.coutinho@post.harvard.edu
  29. 29. Qualitative Socialcast Metrics still in beta…(ESPM) • Relevancy – Number of relevant posts / number of total posts • Dialogue extension and depth – First comment / Last comment (recency) • Favorability – (number of total post – negative posts) / number of total posts marcelo.coutinho@post.harvard.edu
  30. 30. What is an opinion to a machine? It is a "quintuple", an object made up of 5 different things: Oj = The thing in question (i.e product) f jk = a feature of Oj SO ijkl = the sentiment value of the opinion of the opinion holder hi on feature fjk of object oj at time tl These 5 elements have to be identified by the machine Source: Opinion Mining and Sentiment Analysis, Pang & Lee, 2008
  31. 31. It is not old X new metrics, but old AND new
  32. 32. Advertising is moving from a world built around Cathedrals (Broadcast media consumption, tools and metrics)… marcelo.coutinho@post.harvard.edu
  33. 33. … to a world ruled by the logic of the bazaar (even if the same owner has a lot of outlets) marcelo.coutinho@post.harvard.edu
  34. 34. Socialcast “channels”
  35. 35. and we are just beginning
  36. 36. Return Over Influence Socialcast Metrics – The Brazilian case Web Analytics Association São Paulo, Brazil, October 2009 marcelo.coutinho@post.harvard.edu Twitter: @mcoutinho

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