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Perspectivas internet br_2015_coutinho

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Ad Spend in Brazil 2015/2016: low growth in general, but Digital will benefit from the increase in time spent and advertiser's demand for better ROI / Sales due adverse economic conditions

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Perspectivas internet br_2015_coutinho

  1. 1. Perspectivas para o mercado digital 2015/2016 Estratégias para Mercados Digitais – 2º 2014 Prof. Marcelo Coutinho marcelo.coutinho@fgv.br
  2. 2. Em termos de alcance diário, a Web é a segunda mídia mais utilizada no Brasil Fonte: Pesquisa Bras. de Mídia 2014. SECOM/IBOPE. Amostra nacional
  3. 3. Internet lidera no tempo gasto com a mídia 0:00 0:30 1:00 1:30 2:00 2:31 3:01 3:31 Internet TV Rádio Jornais Horaspordia Durante a semana Final de semana Fonte: Pesquisa Bras. de Mídia 2014. SECOM/IBOPE. Amostra nacional
  4. 4. Acesso por faixa de renda (S.M.) 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Até 1 De 1 a 2 2 a 3 3 a 5 5 a 10 Mais de 10 SM Fonte: Comitê Gestor da Internet BR - 2014
  5. 5. Em 2015, o aumento do tempo de uso será mais importante e pronunciado que o aumento da base de usuários
  6. 6. Foi na recessão de 2008/2009 que o tempo de uso da Web aumentou de forma pronunciada nos EUA
  7. 7. • Aumenta tempo de uso no domicílio (substituto lazer + ferramenta de informação de preço) • Crescimento acesso móvel (base usuários + time spent)
  8. 8. Após 5 anos do início da recessão nos EUA, o maior impacto da Internet foi sobre a maneira como os consumidores se informam sobre produtos e serviços. Em tempos de economia difícil, a percepção do valor da rede aumenta e as iniciativas que permitem ao consumidor economizar são uma grande oportunidade para as marcas
  9. 9. A desaceleração econômica em 2015/2016 vai acelerar esta mudança no Brasil
  10. 10. Dados referentes ao mercado americano
  11. 11. Setembro 2014 Alteração de hábitos de consumo de midia digital abre espaço para estratégias integradas com mobile + 2ª Tela
  12. 12. Fonte: IBOPE (TGI) Nov/2013
  13. 13. Empresas mais seletivas e atentas aos resultados do investimento em mídia. Foco em ações de comunicação com ênfase em promoção, vendas e geração de leads
  14. 14. No caso do investimento publicitário, PIB, Consumo das Famílias e lucro das empresas são importantes indicadores antecedentes 100 150 200 250 300 350 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 PIB Consumo.Fam Inv.Pub. Se o passado serve de guia, o investimento publicitário deve crescer entre 1% e 2% em termos reais (IPCA) ao ano entre 2015-2016 levando em conta as projeções do Boletim Focus do BC nas suas últimas edições (sem considerar o efeito das Olimpíadas). Mas é provável uma queda se utilizarmos o dólar com indexador. 2003=100
  15. 15. Investimento Pub. 2013 (Data Coutinho) Cinema Guias e Listas Mídia Exterior Radio TV por assinat. Revista Web (Display+Social) Jornal Web (Search) TV aberta Soma de Intermeios sem Web + IAB = R$ 36,534 bilhões Total Share Web = 15,7% (aproximadamente EUA 2010) • Web Search = 10,2% • Web Display+Social = 5,5%
  16. 16. Investimento em digital vai continuar crescendo, mas aumenta demanda por mensuração, ao mesmo tempo que cresce complexidade de criação, distribuição de conteúdo e avaliação.
  17. 17. A queda de audiência/time spent do impresso torna o meio cada vez mais caro em termos relativos, aumentando sua vulnerabilidade justamente em tempos de recessão
  18. 18. 3
  19. 19. 4 anos após a crise, o mercado de trabalho na publicidade americana permanece estagnado, mas o digital apresenta crescimento de mais de 50%
  20. 20. Entre as 10 maiores agências dos EUA segundo o Advertising Age, as 3 líderes são especializadas na convergência entre tecnologia, publicidade e dados
  21. 21. Investimento publicitário crescendo pouco e de forma desigual Digital cresce (time spent + mobile) TV aberta estável TV por assinatura ? (efeito cord-cutter) Impressos caem Negociação mais dura, ciclos de decisão maiores Anunciantes mais exigentes em métricas/ROI Ênfase em promoção/lead generation Maior atenção ao programmatic
  22. 22. Perspectivas para o mercado digital 2015/2016 Estratégias para Mercados Digitais – 2º 2014 Prof. Marcelo Coutinho marcelo.coutinho@fgv.br

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